RealGM

Maybe a separate discussion for strictly-betting talk so as not to mess up the other Week 1 thread? If not allowed, then just merge please.

What are your “Top 5 Picks” for week 1. You can combine spread and totals just so we see the general consensus of the (RealGM) public and which ones we can be confident betting.

Let’s add a “Avoid at All Costs” line for one of the lines, identifying what can be a weird and suspect line for that week.

NFL Week 1 lines;

DET +5.5 vs KC 52.5
ARZ +7 vs WAS 38.0
CAR +3.5 vs ATL 39.5
CIN -2.5 vs CLE 47.5

HOU +10 vs BAL 43.5
JAX -5 vs IND 45.5
SF -2.5 vs PIT 41.0
TB +6 vs MIN 45.5

TEN +3 vs NO 41.0
GB +1 vs CHI 42.0
LAR +5.5 vs SEA 46.0
LV +3.5 vs DEN 44.0

MIA +3 vs LAC 51.0
PHI -4 vs NE 45.0
DAL -3.5 vs NYG 46.5
BUF -2.5 vs NYJ 46.5

Which ones do you like?

Season kickoff picking the Lions +4.5 and the Over 53.0…. Thoughts from any active NFL bettor here?

durden_tyler wrote:Season kickoff picking the Lions +4.5 and the Over 53.0…. Thoughts from any active NFL bettor here?

Love the over. Hard to bet against Mahomes and Reid. I think the moment will be too big for the Lions to handle at Arrowhead tonight.

I'm taking Chiefs -4.5 tonight...

azcatz11 wrote:I'm taking Chiefs -4.5 tonight...

Yeah wary of the line movement. Kelce injury news probably attracted a lot of recent action for the Lions, who i believe is the public bet now.

durden_tyler wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:I'm taking Chiefs -4.5 tonight...

Yeah wary of the line movement. Kelce injury news probably attracted a lot of recent action for the Lions, who i believe is the public bet now.

Is Kelce officially ruled out? I'm not sure he's worth 2 points. Maybe he is. I have confidence the Chiefs will take care of business at home and the Lions defense still stinks. Elite offense...obviously but if they even have a good defense they are NFC contenders. I'm not buying the hype yet

durden_tyler wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:I'm taking Chiefs -4.5 tonight...

Yeah wary of the line movement. Kelce injury news probably attracted a lot of recent action for the Lions, who i believe is the public bet now.

This coming from the same guy that said last year the Chiefs were on the decline because they unleaded Tyreek Hill and wouldn't even win their own division.

azcatz11 wrote:

durden_tyler wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:I'm taking Chiefs -4.5 tonight...

Yeah wary of the line movement. Kelce injury news probably attracted a lot of recent action for the Lions, who i believe is the public bet now.

Is Kelce officially ruled out? I'm not sure he's worth 2 points. Maybe he is. I have confidence the Chiefs will take care of business at home and the Lions defense still stinks. Elite offense...obviously but if they even have a good defense they are NFC contenders. I'm not buying the hype yet

Still questionable. I avoided him for this very reason. Iron man previous years but i think age (33 years old) will be a factor and they’d rather preserve him for the postseason over reg seasonz

Leaning Jags, Seahawks against the spread. Thoughts?

durden_tyler wrote:NFL Week 1 lines;

DET +5.5 vs KC 52.5
ARZ +7 vs WAS 38.0
CAR +3.5 vs ATL 39.5
CIN -2.5 vs CLE 47.5

HOU +10 vs BAL 43.5
JAX -5 vs IND 45.5
SF -2.5 vs PIT 41.0
TB +6 vs MIN 45.5

TEN +3 vs NO 41.0
GB +1 vs CHI 42.0
LAR +5.5 vs SEA 46.0
LV +3.5 vs DEN 44.0

MIA +3 vs LAC 51.0
PHI -4 vs NE 45.0
DAL -3.5 vs NYG 46.5
BUF -2.5 vs NYJ 46.5

Which ones do you like?

I don't bet much the first couple weeks. However, the games that are tempting to me this week are;
Wash -7, Pit +2.5, Jax -5, Mia/Lac over 51.

FInal picks for W1 (at least for 1PM games):

Ravens -9.5
Steelers +2
Browns +1.5
Jaguars -3.5

durden_tyler wrote:FInal picks for W1 (at least for 1PM games):

Ravens -9.5
Steelers +2
Browns +1.5
Jaguars -3.5

Good picks except for the Steelers of course.

jaguars got a long td to cover while trying to run the clock out then colts couldnt cash it in at the end with 1st and goal at the goal line.

i guess it pissed off no one since almost nobody had money on colts.

Thinking Cowboys -3.5 vs Giants for SNF?

durden_tyler wrote:Thinking Cowboys -3.5 vs Giants for SNF?

I really have no idea. I think I picked the Giants +2.5 in the pool, but I generally like home dogs, and if I had to bet and could get 3.5 at home in what will likely be a close game, I'd take the Giants.

But I really don't know a lot about these teams. Hard to know in week 1. I think Daniel Jones is a bit underrated.

bwgood77 wrote:

durden_tyler wrote:Thinking Cowboys -3.5 vs Giants for SNF?

I really have no idea. I think I picked the Giants +2.5 in the pool, but I generally like home dogs, and if I had to bet and could get 3.5 at home in what will likely be a close game, I'd take the Giants.

But I really don't know a lot about these teams. Hard to know in week 1. I think Daniel Jones is a bit underrated.

That was my rational coming into the game…big L for me.

azcatz11 wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

durden_tyler wrote:Thinking Cowboys -3.5 vs Giants for SNF?

I really have no idea. I think I picked the Giants +2.5 in the pool, but I generally like home dogs, and if I had to bet and could get 3.5 at home in what will likely be a close game, I'd take the Giants.

But I really don't know a lot about these teams. Hard to know in week 1. I think Daniel Jones is a bit underrated.

That was my rational coming into the game…big L for me.

Went with my gut and the fact that the Cowboys were pegged to be one of the topped defenses in fantasy, rolled with it with my biggest bet of the year.

On to MNF, hoping this nice start continues ans going with Jets +2.5 tomorrow.

5-1 to start this season! Week 1 good start means double the bets next week. LOL

On to Week 2! Early leans this week, though we awaiting news of some probable injuries and return from injuries?