Future of Football -- No Running Game?

[UrbanLegendMD]

The game has been evolving over the years, and the emphasis has become increasingly on the passing game. Runningbacks are expandable and many teams use multiple backs. Fullbacks are almost an archaic position. So, as (Please Use More Appropriate Word) as this may sound, is it possible that this progression will continue? Will we one day find ourselves watching an Andy Reid league where teams pass 80% of the time?

[Monkeyfeng06]

Nurbek is (Please Use More Appropriate Word)

[J.Kim]

Not as quite, Monkeyfeng.

If you would have told a Football coach 40 years ago, that we'll one day see a game where some teams will throw 60-65% of the time, they would have laughed at you.

Now, Football strategy has thus far levelled off over the past 10 years, and we're seeing virtually offshoots/versions of the West Coast Offence, everywhere.

Now if Football strategy were to evolve much further, and to yield a Quarterback who could regularly throw for 75-80% completion rate, we could quite possibly see a huge decline in the Running Game, since passing could generate more yards, at only a slight increase of a risk than rushing.

Now, whether we'll see that day, I don't know.

[Rooster]

I think "slight" is a very generous word to use there. In a rushing play, you get it to your guy almost 100% of the time. As long as there are boring (as if!) defensive teams and conservative, methodical coaches, rushing will be important.

That and it keep the defence honest even in the most passing-oriented system.

[NO-KG-AI]

It is definitely needed, the expendable runningback is due to them not lasting long as a whole, having a large talent pool of them, and needing to add different dimensions to your offense.

The run is more important than the pass IMO. If you can't run your only hope is a really good screen game(think Pats of a few years ago)

[nesta]

nope, this ain't madden

[treiz]

Nurbek is (Please Use More Appropriate Word)

That is funny

[Proposition Joe]

The game has been evolving over the years, and the emphasis has become increasingly on the passing game. Runningbacks are expandable and many teams use multiple backs. Fullbacks are almost an archaic position. So, as (Please Use More Appropriate Word) as this may sound, is it possible that this progression will continue? Will we one day find ourselves watching an Andy Reid league where teams pass 80% of the time?

that would be so boring. i hope the nfl does not turn the game into a copy of stern's nba long ball league. the inside game is as much fun to watch as watching the ball fly. to keep fans attention they need to have a healthy mix.

[JaxMagic]

So if the league did become more predominately pass oriented, defenses would have to switch as well, which means we would see more and more nickle packages or even dime packages as the base defense. Now if I am the coach and the league is completely pass oritented and I am staring down constant nickle defenes then I am going to run the ball. If I start running the ball and see a lot of success then chances are other teams would copy this strategy again because the league is one big copy cat league.

[J.Kim]

I don't know...
Once the passing game evolves to a stage where the trade-off is very negligable, in terms of risk, I don't see how teams can go back to the run, because passing, on average, gains more yards.
I can see screens and dump-offs evolving to the point of where they're replacing the runs.

As for the defence, I'd say as the need arises, they'll find people with the physical ability to cover wide receivers, while having the size to not get run over by short drop offs to power receivers...
Just like how the DE(4-3)/OLB(3-4) position and the LT position came to find people of particular size and physical abilities, I think if the passing game evolves, teams will start scouring for that type of cover corners.

[Monkeyfeng06]

i think its (Please Use More Appropriate Word) to say that teams will pass 80% of the time.

[HCYanks]

One issue that comes into play is the scarcity of competent NFL quarterbacks. At least half the teams in the league are looking out for a QB upgrade or are playing a young quarterback with the hope that he becomes a competent passer one day. On the other hand, the running back talent pool only seems to be getting bigger. Additionally, some teams are finding that you can get a solid running attack without a marquee back through the use of a balanced tandem.

Unless offenses are revolutionized to the point that there are at least 30-40 guys in the league capable enough to competently run them, I don't think the run game is going away any time soon.

[UTMCretin]

So its going to turn into the CFL?

[Philly KDub]

nawww i doubt it. many coaches know you need to run the ball to win. it would be ridiculous to see teams pass 80% of the time because you will need to run the ball to kill the clock and keep the defense off-balance. you cant replace the running game with screens because eventually teams will be able to figure out how to stop screens. you will always still need to run the ball to win no matter what you think.

[JaxMagic]

I don't know...
Once the passing game evolves to a stage where the trade-off is very negligable, in terms of risk, I don't see how teams can go back to the run, because passing, on average, gains more yards.
I can see screens and dump-offs evolving to the point of where they're replacing the runs.

As for the defence, I'd say as the need arises, they'll find people with the physical ability to cover wide receivers, while having the size to not get run over by short drop offs to power receivers...
Just like how the DE(4-3)/OLB(3-4) position and the LT position came to find people of particular size and physical abilities, I think if the passing game evolves, teams will start scouring for that type of cover corners.

Yeah it is true that throwing the ball usually producing bigger gains but you also have to look at it from a time of possession standpoint. Running the ball lets you keep the other teams offense off the field and also wears down the opponent's defenses.

FOr your other point I still think the advantage would go to the offenses. Yeah you could get guys big enough to play the run and fast enough to keep up with some receivers but your best bet would still to have an extra corner on the field. The one thing I could see teams doing is replacing one of your linebackers (most likely the weakside) with a safety that can cover and is tough enough to stop the run. But even that may not work full time.

[Monkeyfeng06]

we are not talking about AFL so saying 80% passing game is just crazy in my opinion. this game needs a balance attack of passes and rushes. 70% is a bit too much as well. you can have games that are sure above 50% passing, that happens but to say that the NFL culture will change to a 70%~80% passing game is just plain nuts. there will always be teams with crappy QBs or WRs so its really impossible to have a league with 80% passing game.

[Monkeyfeng06]

Not as quite, Monkeyfeng.

If you would have told a Football coach 40 years ago, that we'll one day see a game where some teams will throw 60-65% of the time, they would have laughed at you.

Now, Football strategy has thus far levelled off over the past 10 years, and we're seeing virtually offshoots/versions of the West Coast Offence, everywhere.

Now if Football strategy were to evolve much further, and to yield a Quarterback who could regularly throw for 75-80% completion rate, we could quite possibly see a huge decline in the Running Game, since passing could generate more yards, at only a slight increase of a risk than rushing.

Now, whether we'll see that day, I don't know.

there is a threshold to this. i think 65% to 70% is the threshold. i think its impossible to see a team throwing 80% constantly.