Elway > Favre all time?
Posted: Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:19 am
Whenever there is a discussion regarding the top QBs of all time, I often hear Elway's name come up before Favre's. I wonder why that is.
Yes, I know all about the Elway legend about how he could come back from 4th quarter deficits like it was second-nature, and mentioning anything like The Drive is synonymous with Elway's heroics. Maybe it's because he has these defining moments that people can look back on him fondly as being one of the best of all time.
Because when I investigate his career, I don't come away THAT impressed.
1. The myth of Favre's egregiously high interception total:
You may say Favre has thrown too many interceptions to be considered better than Elway. I beg to differ. In investigating, I looked at the pass attempt to interception ratio. What I found:
Favre: 30.36 pass attempts per interception
Elway: 32.07 pass attempts per interception
So clearly, the difference is extremely negligible. Next, I calculated the TD to interception ratio:
Favre: 1.527 touchdowns per interception
Elway: 1.327 touchdowns per interception
Favre blows Elway out in this regard. It is also noteworthy that Favre has 49 more interceptions than Elway, but has thrown for 120 more touchdowns!
2. Analysis of Favre's and Elway's statistical numbers:
A brief statistical summary of Elway's career:
TD Int Yards Comp%
1983: 7 14 1663 48
1984: 18 15 2598 56
1985: 22 23 3891 54
1986: 19 13 3485 56
1987: 19 12 3198 55
1988: 17 19 3309 55
1989: 18 18 3051 54
1990: 15 14 3526 59
1991: 13 12 3253 54
1992:10 17 2242 55
1993: 25 10 4030 63
1994: 16 10 3490 62
1995: 26 14 3970 58
1996: 26 14 3328 62
1997: 27 11 3635 56
1998: 22 10 2806 59
As we see, Elway often threw more interceptions than touchdowns well into his career. After his rookie year, the first occurrence is in year 3, followed by year 6 (equal in year 7), and year 10, which was a complete meltdown. The years in between are very close, in that there was no defining amazing statistical year. He averaged TD numbers in the teens! He finally started to get it together in year 11, which was a great year for him, and he was basically the only player on offense. Year 12 saw a decline, despite the arrival of Pro Bowler Anthony Miller. However, things started to look up in 1995. So what happened in 1995?
a. Mike Shanahan was hired.
b. Terrell Davis was drafted and put up 1100 yards in his rookie year.
It can then be assumed that Elway's career took off under Shanahan's tutelage, and with the game-breaking ability of Terrell Davis, arguably the league's best RB during that brief time period. Of course, we can't take Elway's amazing numbers away as a result of this, but it is interesting to note that his best numbers came when asked to carry less of a load, and having a great mind to guide him.
A brief statistical summary of Favre's career:
TD Int Yards Comp%
1991: 0 2 0 0
1992: 18 13 3227 64
1993: 19 24 3303 61
1994: 33 14 3882 62
1995: 38 13 4413 63
1996: 39 13 3899 60
1997: 35 16 3867 60
1998: 31 23 4212 63
1999: 22 23 4091 57
2000: 20 16 3812 28
2001: 32 15 3921 62
2002: 27 16 3658 62
2003: 32 21 3361 65
2004: 30 17 4088 64
2005: 20 29 3881 61
2006: 18 18 3885 56
2007: 6* 2* 861* 64*
In year 4, Favre's numbers have been absolutely monstrous. Favre has 9 entire seasons in which he's equaled or surpassed Elway's highest season touchdown total. He's averaged TD totals in the thirties (compared to Elway's teens). That is nothing to sneeze at. After his rookie year, Favre has only had three seasons in which he's had more interceptions than touchdowns. There was that egregious 29 interception year. Why did that happen?
a. Favre lost Javon Walker, Donald Driver, Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, Robert Ferguson, Mike Flanagan, Mike Wahle, and Marco Rivera from his offense, either due to injury or free agency. The loss of eight starters, four of which were Pro-Bowlers or close would have a tremendous impact on a QB's numbers.
b. To replace these starters, the Packers started Taco Wallace, Andrae Thurman, Samkon Gado, Scott Wells, Will Whitticker, and Adrian Klemm. Four of these players are no longer in the NFL.
It can then be assumed that on a team in which Favre was unnaturally asked to shoulder the entire load, he suffered statistically. Now could this be a result of his diminishing skills? It could be. But the more reasonable assumption was that his NFL-caliber supporting cast was replaced by an NFL Europe-caliber supporting cast. The fact that Favre, just a season prior (2004), enjoyed a monster statistical season seems to bear this out. Nobody loses their skills in one season. It appears that Favre was simply forced to gamble just to keep the games close (to make up for his supporting cast), and as can be seen, the results were poor. His "sudden resurgence" is not at all surprising; he simply now has a good defense and pretty good receivers to rely on.
How about the playoffs? Favre has thrown for 34 touchdowns and 26 interceptions, while amassing 4902 yards. Elway has 27 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and 4964 yards.
In sum, Favre's statistics have dwarfed those of Elway, and Favre comes out ahead in every statistical category. Even the interceptions (for which Favre has built a reputation) are not egregiously higher in number (given the production) than Elway's.
Rushing? Elway has 3407 rushing yards and 33 touchdowns. Favre has 1771 yards and 13 touchdowns. Elway has an advantage there, but is it really enough to catapult him in front of Favre?
3. Analysis of Favre's and Elway's careers:
For Elway:
1983: Rookie year in which Elway played in 11 games. The Broncos (9-7) played in Wild Card game, in which they were blown out by the 9-7 Seattle Seahawks.
1984: Broncos went 13-3, but lost to a 9-7 Steelers squad, who ended up losing to the Dolphins in the AFC Championship game.
1985: Broncos went 11-5, but did not reach the playoffs, because of a very strong AFC East.
1986: Broncos went 11-5, beating the 11-5 New England Patriots, and then the 12-4 Cleveland Browns (coached by the star-crossed Schottenheimer). They then got hammered by the New York Giants in the Super Bowl.
1987: Broncos went 10-4-1, beating the 9-6 Houston Oilers, and the 10-5 Cleveland Browns. They were blown out by the Redskins in the Super Bowl.
1988: Broncos went 8-8.
1989: Broncos went 11-5, beating the 9-7 Steelers, and the 9-6-1 Browns to reach the Super Bowl. There, they were crushed 55-10 by the 49ers juggernaut.
1990: Broncos went 5-11.
1991: Broncos went 12-4, beating a very good 11-5 Oilers team, and then losing to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game.
1992: Broncos went 8-8.
1993: Broncos went 9-7, losing to the 10-6 Raiders, who eventually lost to the Bills in the AFC Championship.
1994: Broncos went 7-9.
1995: Broncos went 8-8.
1996: Broncos went 13-3, losing to the 9-7 Jacksonville Jaguars, who lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
1997: Broncos went 12-4, beating the 11-5 Jaguars, the 13-3 Chiefs (poor Schottenheimer), the 11-5 Steelers, and then beating the 13-3 Packers in the Super Bowl.
1998: Broncos went 14-2, destroying very good Dolphins, Jets, and Falcons squads to win the Super Bowl.
So in sum, Elway's teams have made the playoffs in 10 seasons. He has 11 winning seasons. 5 non-winning seasons. He has a very good 14-8 playoff record, owing to the fact that generally once the Broncos made the playoffs, they usually made it to the Super Bowl. This is certainly to Elway's credit - he came up big in big games.
However, it would be wrong to ignore the fact that the AFC was far, far weaker than the NFC. Therefore, it would have been much easier for Elway to advance, as he faced lesser teams. Indeed, the Broncos were able to dispatch relatively inferior teams to make it to their Super Bowls, only to get destroyed by the NFC representatives. Given the lopsided scores, and the amount of times it happened, it is safe to say that Elway enjoyed success in a weaker conference. Of course, this doesn't take away from his accomplishments, but given the circumstances, it is doubtful that he would have been able to achieve as much success playing the Giants, Redskins, Cowboys, 49ers, Rams, Bears, and Eagles of the NFC.
For Favre:
1992: The Packers went 9-7.
1993: The Packers went 9-7, beating the 10-6 Detroit Lions, and then losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Cowboys.
1994: The Packers again went 9-7, beating the 9-7 Lions, and losing to the 12-4 Cowboys, who lost to eventual Super Bowl winner San Francisco in the NFC Championship.
1995: The Packers went 11-5, beating the 9-7 Falcons, the 11-5 49ers, and then losing the NFC Championship to the Dallas Cowboys, who eventually went on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl.
1996: The Packers went 13-3, beating the 12-4 49ers and 12-4 Carolina Panthers, en route to winning the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots.
1997: The Packers went 13-3, beating the 10-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 13-3 49ers, and then lost to Denver in the Super Bowl.
1998: The Packers went 11-5, losing to the 12-4 49ers in the playoffs.
1999: The Packers went 8-8.
2000: The Packers went 9-7.
2001: The Packers went 12-4, beating the 12-4 49ers, and then losing to the 14-2 Rams juggernaut in the playoffs.
2002: The Packers went 12-4, being upset by the Atlanta Falcons.
2003: The Packers went 10-6, beating the 10-6 Seattle Seahawks, and then losing (in embarrassingly improbable fashion) to the 12-4 Eagles.
2004: The Packers went 10-6, losing to the Minnesota Vikings in the playoffs.
2005: The Packers went 4-12.
2006: The Packers went 8-8.
Favre has 12 winning seasons, 3 non-winning seasons. He has an 11-9 playoff record. However, Favre has faced better playoff competition, facing Dallas and San Francisco in their heydays, and then meeting the Greatest Show on Turf on another occasion. Recent playoff appearances have not been as successful, owing to a number of factors, including poor Favre performances, a fluke 4th and 26 play, injuries to receivers, and injuries to defense on another occasion. Of course, these are not excuses, but they paint a more complete picture. Elway also had to deal with poor playoff performances, albeit earlier in his career. Later on, as mentioned before, his team was markedly better than Favre's, so Elway was able to ride his juggernaut team, win, and ride off into the sunset. Favre has not had the luxury of a Terrell Davis, etc. in his recent playoff years.
___
So in conclusion, I don't see how Elway would be considered better than Favre all-time. Elway has had poor playoff performances, and could not win the big one until getting a Hall-of-Fame caliber RB (injury notwithstanding) and a very strong supporting cast otherwise. Elway also beat up on comparatively weak AFC teams in the regular season and playoffs, only to get absolutely destroyed by the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. This tells me that he did not face particularly great competition during his earlier years.
Whereas Favre had to deal with teams that eventually ended up winning the Super Bowl (Elway has never done that). Favre has also had poor playoff performances, but this too had something to do with a not-so-strong supporting cast. When he had the luxury of a better supporting cast, he also won the Super Bowl (while posting better numbers doing so). He's had to face and beat better NFC teams (NFC teams had won a decade worth of Super Bowls in a row).
Therefore, Elway's playoff success is slightly overrated historically, whereas Favre's is underrated. I'd then put them at similar standings in terms of post-season performance.
However, when it comes down to statistics and records, Favre absolutely destroys Elway's numbers in nearly every category. With wins and winning seasons, Favre also has the advantage. With attempts, completions, touchdowns, and yards, it's not even close. And Favre enjoys a far better TD/Int ratio.
Ergo, Favre is the better quarterback all-time, in my opinion.
Yes, I know all about the Elway legend about how he could come back from 4th quarter deficits like it was second-nature, and mentioning anything like The Drive is synonymous with Elway's heroics. Maybe it's because he has these defining moments that people can look back on him fondly as being one of the best of all time.
Because when I investigate his career, I don't come away THAT impressed.
1. The myth of Favre's egregiously high interception total:
You may say Favre has thrown too many interceptions to be considered better than Elway. I beg to differ. In investigating, I looked at the pass attempt to interception ratio. What I found:
Favre: 30.36 pass attempts per interception
Elway: 32.07 pass attempts per interception
So clearly, the difference is extremely negligible. Next, I calculated the TD to interception ratio:
Favre: 1.527 touchdowns per interception
Elway: 1.327 touchdowns per interception
Favre blows Elway out in this regard. It is also noteworthy that Favre has 49 more interceptions than Elway, but has thrown for 120 more touchdowns!
2. Analysis of Favre's and Elway's statistical numbers:
A brief statistical summary of Elway's career:
TD Int Yards Comp%
1983: 7 14 1663 48
1984: 18 15 2598 56
1985: 22 23 3891 54
1986: 19 13 3485 56
1987: 19 12 3198 55
1988: 17 19 3309 55
1989: 18 18 3051 54
1990: 15 14 3526 59
1991: 13 12 3253 54
1992:10 17 2242 55
1993: 25 10 4030 63
1994: 16 10 3490 62
1995: 26 14 3970 58
1996: 26 14 3328 62
1997: 27 11 3635 56
1998: 22 10 2806 59
As we see, Elway often threw more interceptions than touchdowns well into his career. After his rookie year, the first occurrence is in year 3, followed by year 6 (equal in year 7), and year 10, which was a complete meltdown. The years in between are very close, in that there was no defining amazing statistical year. He averaged TD numbers in the teens! He finally started to get it together in year 11, which was a great year for him, and he was basically the only player on offense. Year 12 saw a decline, despite the arrival of Pro Bowler Anthony Miller. However, things started to look up in 1995. So what happened in 1995?
a. Mike Shanahan was hired.
b. Terrell Davis was drafted and put up 1100 yards in his rookie year.
It can then be assumed that Elway's career took off under Shanahan's tutelage, and with the game-breaking ability of Terrell Davis, arguably the league's best RB during that brief time period. Of course, we can't take Elway's amazing numbers away as a result of this, but it is interesting to note that his best numbers came when asked to carry less of a load, and having a great mind to guide him.
A brief statistical summary of Favre's career:
TD Int Yards Comp%
1991: 0 2 0 0
1992: 18 13 3227 64
1993: 19 24 3303 61
1994: 33 14 3882 62
1995: 38 13 4413 63
1996: 39 13 3899 60
1997: 35 16 3867 60
1998: 31 23 4212 63
1999: 22 23 4091 57
2000: 20 16 3812 28
2001: 32 15 3921 62
2002: 27 16 3658 62
2003: 32 21 3361 65
2004: 30 17 4088 64
2005: 20 29 3881 61
2006: 18 18 3885 56
2007: 6* 2* 861* 64*
In year 4, Favre's numbers have been absolutely monstrous. Favre has 9 entire seasons in which he's equaled or surpassed Elway's highest season touchdown total. He's averaged TD totals in the thirties (compared to Elway's teens). That is nothing to sneeze at. After his rookie year, Favre has only had three seasons in which he's had more interceptions than touchdowns. There was that egregious 29 interception year. Why did that happen?
a. Favre lost Javon Walker, Donald Driver, Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, Robert Ferguson, Mike Flanagan, Mike Wahle, and Marco Rivera from his offense, either due to injury or free agency. The loss of eight starters, four of which were Pro-Bowlers or close would have a tremendous impact on a QB's numbers.
b. To replace these starters, the Packers started Taco Wallace, Andrae Thurman, Samkon Gado, Scott Wells, Will Whitticker, and Adrian Klemm. Four of these players are no longer in the NFL.
It can then be assumed that on a team in which Favre was unnaturally asked to shoulder the entire load, he suffered statistically. Now could this be a result of his diminishing skills? It could be. But the more reasonable assumption was that his NFL-caliber supporting cast was replaced by an NFL Europe-caliber supporting cast. The fact that Favre, just a season prior (2004), enjoyed a monster statistical season seems to bear this out. Nobody loses their skills in one season. It appears that Favre was simply forced to gamble just to keep the games close (to make up for his supporting cast), and as can be seen, the results were poor. His "sudden resurgence" is not at all surprising; he simply now has a good defense and pretty good receivers to rely on.
How about the playoffs? Favre has thrown for 34 touchdowns and 26 interceptions, while amassing 4902 yards. Elway has 27 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and 4964 yards.
In sum, Favre's statistics have dwarfed those of Elway, and Favre comes out ahead in every statistical category. Even the interceptions (for which Favre has built a reputation) are not egregiously higher in number (given the production) than Elway's.
Rushing? Elway has 3407 rushing yards and 33 touchdowns. Favre has 1771 yards and 13 touchdowns. Elway has an advantage there, but is it really enough to catapult him in front of Favre?
3. Analysis of Favre's and Elway's careers:
For Elway:
1983: Rookie year in which Elway played in 11 games. The Broncos (9-7) played in Wild Card game, in which they were blown out by the 9-7 Seattle Seahawks.
1984: Broncos went 13-3, but lost to a 9-7 Steelers squad, who ended up losing to the Dolphins in the AFC Championship game.
1985: Broncos went 11-5, but did not reach the playoffs, because of a very strong AFC East.
1986: Broncos went 11-5, beating the 11-5 New England Patriots, and then the 12-4 Cleveland Browns (coached by the star-crossed Schottenheimer). They then got hammered by the New York Giants in the Super Bowl.
1987: Broncos went 10-4-1, beating the 9-6 Houston Oilers, and the 10-5 Cleveland Browns. They were blown out by the Redskins in the Super Bowl.
1988: Broncos went 8-8.
1989: Broncos went 11-5, beating the 9-7 Steelers, and the 9-6-1 Browns to reach the Super Bowl. There, they were crushed 55-10 by the 49ers juggernaut.
1990: Broncos went 5-11.
1991: Broncos went 12-4, beating a very good 11-5 Oilers team, and then losing to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game.
1992: Broncos went 8-8.
1993: Broncos went 9-7, losing to the 10-6 Raiders, who eventually lost to the Bills in the AFC Championship.
1994: Broncos went 7-9.
1995: Broncos went 8-8.
1996: Broncos went 13-3, losing to the 9-7 Jacksonville Jaguars, who lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
1997: Broncos went 12-4, beating the 11-5 Jaguars, the 13-3 Chiefs (poor Schottenheimer), the 11-5 Steelers, and then beating the 13-3 Packers in the Super Bowl.
1998: Broncos went 14-2, destroying very good Dolphins, Jets, and Falcons squads to win the Super Bowl.
So in sum, Elway's teams have made the playoffs in 10 seasons. He has 11 winning seasons. 5 non-winning seasons. He has a very good 14-8 playoff record, owing to the fact that generally once the Broncos made the playoffs, they usually made it to the Super Bowl. This is certainly to Elway's credit - he came up big in big games.
However, it would be wrong to ignore the fact that the AFC was far, far weaker than the NFC. Therefore, it would have been much easier for Elway to advance, as he faced lesser teams. Indeed, the Broncos were able to dispatch relatively inferior teams to make it to their Super Bowls, only to get destroyed by the NFC representatives. Given the lopsided scores, and the amount of times it happened, it is safe to say that Elway enjoyed success in a weaker conference. Of course, this doesn't take away from his accomplishments, but given the circumstances, it is doubtful that he would have been able to achieve as much success playing the Giants, Redskins, Cowboys, 49ers, Rams, Bears, and Eagles of the NFC.
For Favre:
1992: The Packers went 9-7.
1993: The Packers went 9-7, beating the 10-6 Detroit Lions, and then losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Cowboys.
1994: The Packers again went 9-7, beating the 9-7 Lions, and losing to the 12-4 Cowboys, who lost to eventual Super Bowl winner San Francisco in the NFC Championship.
1995: The Packers went 11-5, beating the 9-7 Falcons, the 11-5 49ers, and then losing the NFC Championship to the Dallas Cowboys, who eventually went on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl.
1996: The Packers went 13-3, beating the 12-4 49ers and 12-4 Carolina Panthers, en route to winning the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots.
1997: The Packers went 13-3, beating the 10-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 13-3 49ers, and then lost to Denver in the Super Bowl.
1998: The Packers went 11-5, losing to the 12-4 49ers in the playoffs.
1999: The Packers went 8-8.
2000: The Packers went 9-7.
2001: The Packers went 12-4, beating the 12-4 49ers, and then losing to the 14-2 Rams juggernaut in the playoffs.
2002: The Packers went 12-4, being upset by the Atlanta Falcons.
2003: The Packers went 10-6, beating the 10-6 Seattle Seahawks, and then losing (in embarrassingly improbable fashion) to the 12-4 Eagles.
2004: The Packers went 10-6, losing to the Minnesota Vikings in the playoffs.
2005: The Packers went 4-12.
2006: The Packers went 8-8.
Favre has 12 winning seasons, 3 non-winning seasons. He has an 11-9 playoff record. However, Favre has faced better playoff competition, facing Dallas and San Francisco in their heydays, and then meeting the Greatest Show on Turf on another occasion. Recent playoff appearances have not been as successful, owing to a number of factors, including poor Favre performances, a fluke 4th and 26 play, injuries to receivers, and injuries to defense on another occasion. Of course, these are not excuses, but they paint a more complete picture. Elway also had to deal with poor playoff performances, albeit earlier in his career. Later on, as mentioned before, his team was markedly better than Favre's, so Elway was able to ride his juggernaut team, win, and ride off into the sunset. Favre has not had the luxury of a Terrell Davis, etc. in his recent playoff years.
___
So in conclusion, I don't see how Elway would be considered better than Favre all-time. Elway has had poor playoff performances, and could not win the big one until getting a Hall-of-Fame caliber RB (injury notwithstanding) and a very strong supporting cast otherwise. Elway also beat up on comparatively weak AFC teams in the regular season and playoffs, only to get absolutely destroyed by the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. This tells me that he did not face particularly great competition during his earlier years.
Whereas Favre had to deal with teams that eventually ended up winning the Super Bowl (Elway has never done that). Favre has also had poor playoff performances, but this too had something to do with a not-so-strong supporting cast. When he had the luxury of a better supporting cast, he also won the Super Bowl (while posting better numbers doing so). He's had to face and beat better NFC teams (NFC teams had won a decade worth of Super Bowls in a row).
Therefore, Elway's playoff success is slightly overrated historically, whereas Favre's is underrated. I'd then put them at similar standings in terms of post-season performance.
However, when it comes down to statistics and records, Favre absolutely destroys Elway's numbers in nearly every category. With wins and winning seasons, Favre also has the advantage. With attempts, completions, touchdowns, and yards, it's not even close. And Favre enjoys a far better TD/Int ratio.
Ergo, Favre is the better quarterback all-time, in my opinion.
