As you all know by now (after it's been beaten into your heads). The Colts run a Tampa 2, developed by Tony Dungy. However, the Colts run it slightly modified, with a 4-4 Flavor attached to it. (As I've noticed over the years. Colts fans: Correct me if I'm wrong)
You can see it through this diagram:
The Tampa 2 is like your standard 4-3, except that you play in Zone coverage, with 2 deep safeties, portioning off the deep zone (12-15 yards and out) into halves, and with 3 Linebackers and 2 corners, portioning off the mid zone (around 5-8 yards for the LBs and 8-11yards for the corners) into fifths.
How the Colts 2 differs is that, unlike the Tampa 2, Dungy in the Colts 2, gives Bob Sanders a bit of freedom.
Before the snap, he doesn't quite lineup like a Safety does. Instead, He lines up slightly ahead of the other safety, and just right behind the Linebacker, around 8-10 Yards deep.
Where Sanders lines up can vary slightly. He might be right on line with the Linebackers if its a perceived running down, and he might be closer to the other Safety if its a perceived passing down.
And what Dungy allows Bob Sanders to do is make decisions pre-snap of whether it's going to be a run or a pass, and play it accordingly, from wherever he is lined up.
Now you might be thinking that a play-action might fool Bob Sanders. But it's not that easy. Bob Sanders is a terrific, smart player, who has great awareness and is not easily fooled by play-action. And if he does get fooled, he has enough speed to get back on position.
What you do instead, to have success, is mix up these things:
- Within a run formation, you play-action into a short out pattern to your TE or your WR
- Run a few draw Plays up the gut, preferring the left side where Dwight Freeney is
- Make sure that your WRs/TEs run accurate short out patterns
- Make sure that your WRs/TEs run fast and accurate mid post patterns
- A really really really really fast WR who can beast opposing CBs/Ss deep.
And with all that, you need to start off with a great O-Line who can stop the speed blitzes of Mathis and Freeney.
IMO, the Patriots Offense has all these things, and can score with ease on the Colts' Defense.
As for the Colts Offense; How you can contain them is, if you have fantastic Defensive Linemen who can work the Line of Scrimmage effectively (as in cover gaps) on running downs, and can get penetration by just rushing 3 or 4.
You get penetration against that Offensive line by running 4-man stunts.
This season, the only team that seemed to have good penetration against the Colts' O-Line was the Titans. What they did was pull Kyle Vanden Bosch (who was lined up on the Right side) over to the inside of Albert Haynesworth, who would usually draw the Right Guard and the Center. From there Vanden Bosch would bull rush the RB/FB who was left in the pocket to protect.
Another way is to just out maneuver the Colts' Tackles. Ugoh and Diem this season have shown that they're susceptible to crafty DEs who use combination of their motor, speed, positioning and moves to get to the QB. Speed Rushers and Bull Rushers seem to have no effect.
From there, you put 7 into coverage, and force Manning to make mistakes with your front 4 bringing pressure (Which he has done on infrequent occasions this season).
I think the Patriots are the only team in the league that can do all of these things that I've listed, and that's why I don't think this game will be close at all.
Fantasy dream!