Re: Oladipo and Burke, for the draft junkies

[HotelVitale]

I was just browsing the rivals high school rankings from the past couple of years. As a UM guy, I knew Burke's stock rose massively from hs to the present, but I also saw that Dipo was ranked even lower than Burke. Dipo was #144 in 2011 while Burke was #142 in 2012.

Can anyone remember other top-five picks who started their NCAA careers so far on the fringes of scouts' radars?

(Also worth noting that Porter and McLemore were outside the top 30, and McCollum wasn't even ranked. In case you didn't notice, this here a really weird draft.)

[ImHeisenberg]

I don't pay attention to high school rankings, as they're usually wrong unless it's some kind of 7 foot athletic center with skill.

Also, Burke and Oladipo are only top 10 picks because the draft is so weak. If this was last year, they're probably mid- to late-first round picks.

[coolness]

+1 for David Stern and the no-highschoolers rule.

[theBigLip]

Good info, although not totally surprised. High schoolers are ranked basically on their raw athletic talents, with a few shining stars that have a good all around game. So Burke being ranked low is normal, although I would think that Oladipo might have been higher. I guess he hasn't played hoops for that long. Even freshmen getting drafted are still ranked on their raw athleticism. Noel doesn't really have an offensive game, but he is #1 because he is a super athlete.

Agree that the no-highschoolers rule is working and teams are not wasting high picks on guys that can't play.

[ImHeisenberg]

+1 for David Stern and the no-highschoolers rule.

I don't buy that rule. It was simply something to protect dumb teams. But, on the whole, it isn't as bad as you would assume.

of the 42 players who have been drafted into the NBA straight out of high school, we have:

LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O'Neal, Tracy McGrady, Al Harrington, Rashard Lewis, Tyson Chandler, Amar'e Stoudemire, Kendrick Perkins, Josh Smith, JR Smith, Andrew Bynum and Monta Ellis.

I just threw out 16 players who have or are franchise players, two of the best player in the history of the game, multiple all-stars, and most were the best player on their teams at points. 11 championships between them all.

So historically, 16 out of 42 ain't bad at all. 38% of all high school player panned out to be good to great NBA players. I'm sure if we worked out how many college players panned out, it would be much lower.

[theBigLip]

I agree the rule protects dumb teams. But the best thing is that it also protects the average NBA vet. How? Anytime a team f--ks up their cap by blowing a large contract on Jonathan Bender, DeSagana Diop, Robert Swift, etc, it leaves less money for NBA players that can actually play.

[HotelVitale]

I don't pay attention to high school rankings, as they're usually wrong unless it's some kind of 7 foot athletic center with skill.

Not true at all. Most years, the lottery is a mix of guys who were top-10 players in the Rivals ranks and a smattering of guys from the top 50-70. The top 10 or 20 guys don't all pan out, but it's pretty rare that someone sneaks into the top half of the first round from outside the top 70 or so. And like I said, it's maybe unprecedented for someone to come from outside the top 100 to being a top-5 pick in a year or two.

Take last year's draft:
The first four guys in the rivals 150 were lotto picks (A Davis, Beal, MKG, and Austin Rivers), classic one-and-done cases. Note that Drummond would have been in the top five as well but didn't make the list because he changed his eligibility status so late. The rest of the higher lotto was mostly guys who were ranked high from previous years--Barnes was #2 in the 2010 ranks, Waiters, Meyers Leonard and K Marshall were around #30, Terrence Ross was #48, while TRob was #30 the year before. I don't think Lillard was ranked, but he was a 4 year player and had a long time to make up for his lower HS status.

2011 draft was the same thing:
Kyrie Irving, Kanter, and BK were top-6 players, Tristan Thompson and Kemba top 20, Klay Thompson and the Morris bros top 50. Jimmer wasn't ranked, but he was a 4 year, unathletic white guy who was drafted too high. Then there were a bunch of international guys (whom Rivals doesn't rank) in the top 10.

[HotelVitale]

Burke being ranked low is normal, although I would think that Oladipo might have been higher. I guess he hasn't played hoops for that long.

Dipo's played for as long as any other American kid has. Born and raised in Maryland. Played AAU, was All-State a few times and won some state titles in high school. Don't let the name fool you.

I think Burke is as confused as anyone about his low ranking. He was dominant in HS (Ohio's Mr Basketball) and then great as a freshman and dominant as a sophomore in the NCAA. Rivals ranks short guys highly sometimes, too--two guys under 6 feet are in the top 40 of last year's rankings alone. It seems that they, like everyone else, just can't believe the little guy without any crazy moves or athleticism could actually be that good. Gonna be really interesting to see if he can keep doing it despite being overmatched physically and underwhelming athletically.

[joseph mamah]

Burke being ranked low is normal, although I would think that Oladipo might have been higher. I guess he hasn't played hoops for that long.

Dipo's played for as long as any other American kid has. Born and raised in Maryland. Played AAU, was All-State a few times and won some state titles in high school. Don't let the name fool you.

I think Burke is as confused as anyone about his low ranking. He was dominant in HS (Ohio's Mr Basketball) and then great as a freshman and dominant as a sophomore in the NCAA. Rivals ranks short guys highly sometimes, too--two guys under 6 feet are in the top 40 of last year's rankings alone. It seems that they, like everyone else, just can't believe the little guy without any crazy moves or athleticism could actually be that good. Gonna be really interesting to see if he can keep doing it despite being overmatched physically and underwhelming athletically.

being overshadowed by Sully for his first three years of high school may have contributed to Burkes low ranking as well.

[DetroitDon15]

I agree the rule protects dumb teams. But the best thing is that it also protects the average NBA vet. How? Anytime a team f--ks up their cap by blowing a large contract on Jonathan Bender, DeSagana Diop, Robert Swift, etc, it leaves less money for NBA players that can actually play.

I agree with you on this. The late 90s gave us Kobe and Garnett which started the whole draft a high schooler. Way more flops than successes. I love what David Stern did. Just like a regular job requiring a college degree and a few years experince, the NBA should be able to do the same. The product has gotten better. I mean I didn't need college to become an accoutant but I had to get the degree and experince to get the job I have today.

[HotelVitale]

I agree the rule protects dumb teams. But the best thing is that it also protects the average NBA vet. How? Anytime a team f--ks up their cap by blowing a large contract on Jonathan Bender, DeSagana Diop, Robert Swift, etc, it leaves less money for NBA players that can actually play.

I agree with you on this. The late 90s gave us Kobe and Garnett which started the whole draft a high schooler. Way more flops than successes. I love what David Stern did. Just like a regular job requiring a college degree and a few years experince, the NBA should be able to do the same. The product has gotten better. I mean I didn't need college to become an accoutant but I had to get the degree and experince to get the job I have today.

+1 to both of these. I didn't like the rule at first since it seemed arbitrary and unfair to HS players, but there's no doubt it's made NBA ball a little better. There's less chance your team drafts a total stiff with a high pick, there's fewer roster spots filled with guys who have no clue what they're doing, and we get to know some of the real-deal prospects for a year in college before they make the jump. No harm to anyone except the projects who didn't really deserve to be in the NBA in the first place. It's still arbitrary for plenty of different reasons--why only one year? why punish guys who were clearly, unequivocally ready to contribute? isn't the draft always about gambling on potential?--but it was a simple way to make some of the worst parts of the rampant HS speculation of the early 2000s go away.

Now if there were only some rule protecting against the rampant overrating of Serbian big men in the early 2000s...

[DetroitDon15]

I agree the rule protects dumb teams. But the best thing is that it also protects the average NBA vet. How? Anytime a team f--ks up their cap by blowing a large contract on Jonathan Bender, DeSagana Diop, Robert Swift, etc, it leaves less money for NBA players that can actually play.

I agree with you on this. The late 90s gave us Kobe and Garnett which started the whole draft a high schooler. Way more flops than successes. I love what David Stern did. Just like a regular job requiring a college degree and a few years experince, the NBA should be able to do the same. The product has gotten better. I mean I didn't need college to become an accoutant but I had to get the degree and experince to get the job I have today.

+1 to both of these. I didn't like the rule at first since it seemed arbitrary and unfair to HS players, but there's no doubt it's made NBA ball a little better. There's less chance your team drafts a total stiff with a high pick, there's fewer roster spots filled with guys who have no clue what they're doing, and we get to know some of the real-deal prospects for a year in college before they make the jump. No harm to anyone except the projects who didn't really deserve to be in the NBA in the first place. It's still arbitrary for plenty of different reasons--why only one year? why punish guys who were clearly, unequivocally ready to contribute? isn't the draft always about gambling on potential?--but it was a simple way to make some of the worst parts of the rampant HS speculation of the early 2000s go away.

Now if there were only some rule protecting against the rampant overrating of Serbian big men in the early 2000s...

The problem was bad that high schoolers would get drafted in the second round. Never play and never get to go to college. Its the one thing I don't get. These kids want to be in the association so bad but they don't have the understanding of the game to do so. There rarely is a guy like LeBron, Kobe, or Garnett. Hell the best player of my life time, MJ went to college for several years. I think the best solution in all honesty is to turn the d-league into a minor league system. It would be better for all teams. Players would have better chances. I would say is that an NBA roster has 12 NBA main stays and 3 flex spots where guy who can go up and down from the d-league at any time than 12 dleague spots. Guys can only stay in the d-league but rights owned by the NBA franchise.

[theBigLip]

You beat me on the D-League angle. It is starting to shape up now that each NBA has their own D-League team. Movement between them should be easier. And if a kid doesn't want to go to college, then go to the D-league for a year ( or as many as needed).

Actually, with the rookie salary cap, it has gotten a lot better already. It used to be the top draftees held out until they got what would now be considered a MAX or near MAX contract. That's a lot of money for Jonathan Bender.

[Wizardspride]

Burke being ranked low is normal, although I would think that Oladipo might have been higher. I guess he hasn't played hoops for that long.

Dipo's played for as long as any other American kid has. Born and raised in Maryland. Played AAU, was All-State a few times and won some state titles in high school. Don't let the name fool you.

I think Burke is as confused as anyone about his low ranking. He was dominant in HS (Ohio's Mr Basketball) and then great as a freshman and dominant as a sophomore in the NCAA. Rivals ranks short guys highly sometimes, too--two guys under 6 feet are in the top 40 of last year's rankings alone. It seems that they, like everyone else, just can't believe the little guy without any crazy moves or athleticism could actually be that good. Gonna be really interesting to see if he can keep doing it despite being overmatched physically and underwhelming athletically.

being overshadowed by Sully for his first three years of high school may have contributed to Burkes low ranking as well.

Olapido was in a similar situation. Basically he played on a loaded HS team featuring the likes of Quinn Cook...to name a few.