Who could use Monroe?

[HeroicKennedy]

Ok, then let's change the name of this thread to "who could use Drummond".

Answer: also the Pistons.

How did I know you were going to say that lol.

Curious, do you think the Pistons could contend within the next couple years with Monroe/Smith as the big men and Drummond getting traded for a really good SF and back-up big? I mean a #1 option type SF with range.

Monroe/trade
Smith/Jorts
trade/Singler
KCP/Stuckey
Jennings/Stuckey

I don't buy the Pistons contending so long as Smith is on the team. Everything about him is trending in the wrong direction. He's an "old" 28, so to speak. 10 years in the league with several playoff appearances and this is the time in most careers where players that rely heavily on athleticism start to fall off significantly. The offensive issues are going to stay bad and the defense is going to continue to decline. He's been declining for three straight seasons and I find little reason to believe he will buck this trend.

Basically, if you look at the Monroe/Drummond combo, it's three years before even one of them enters his prime and 5-6 years before BOTH are in their prime. To me, I am completely unconcerned with contending now and am more worried about having a good team when Drummond is like the Death Star: fully operational.

I'd rather have some level of patience with these two working together. Monroe's value is not going to change significantly over the next few seasons barring major injury. If we need to trade Monroe, it should be well after we've tested Monroe/Drummond to it's fullest extent (we're talking roughly 2.7 minutes a game on average with no Smith.).

[joseph mamah]

If we need to trade Monroe, it should be well after we've tested Monroe/Drummond to it's fullest extent

And 100

[sc8581]

Answer: also the Pistons.

How did I know you were going to say that lol.

Curious, do you think the Pistons could contend within the next couple years with Monroe/Smith as the big men and Drummond getting traded for a really good SF and back-up big? I mean a #1 option type SF with range.

Monroe/trade
Smith/Jorts
trade/Singler
KCP/Stuckey
Jennings/Stuckey

I don't buy the Pistons contending so long as Smith is on the team. Everything about him is trending in the wrong direction. He's an "old" 28, so to speak. 10 years in the league with several playoff appearances and this is the time in most careers where players that rely heavily on athleticism start to fall off significantly. The offensive issues are going to stay bad and the defense is going to continue to decline. He's been declining for three straight seasons and I find little reason to believe he will buck this trend.

Basically, if you look at the Monroe/Drummond combo, it's three years before even one of them enters his prime and 5-6 years before BOTH are in their prime. To me, I am completely unconcerned with contending now and am more worried about having a good team when Drummond is like the Death Star: fully operational.

I'd rather have some level of patience with these two working together. Monroe's value is not going to change significantly over the next few seasons barring major injury. If we need to trade Monroe, it should be well after we've tested Monroe/Drummond to it's fullest extent (we're talking roughly 2.7 minutes a game on average with no Smith.).

Smith is better than you're giving him credit for and saying he's declined over the last 3 seasons is non-sense, you must be relying on TS% as a be all end all again.

[HeroicKennedy]

How did I know you were going to say that lol.

Curious, do you think the Pistons could contend within the next couple years with Monroe/Smith as the big men and Drummond getting traded for a really good SF and back-up big? I mean a #1 option type SF with range.

Monroe/trade
Smith/Jorts
trade/Singler
KCP/Stuckey
Jennings/Stuckey

I don't buy the Pistons contending so long as Smith is on the team. Everything about him is trending in the wrong direction. He's an "old" 28, so to speak. 10 years in the league with several playoff appearances and this is the time in most careers where players that rely heavily on athleticism start to fall off significantly. The offensive issues are going to stay bad and the defense is going to continue to decline. He's been declining for three straight seasons and I find little reason to believe he will buck this trend.

Basically, if you look at the Monroe/Drummond combo, it's three years before even one of them enters his prime and 5-6 years before BOTH are in their prime. To me, I am completely unconcerned with contending now and am more worried about having a good team when Drummond is like the Death Star: fully operational.

I'd rather have some level of patience with these two working together. Monroe's value is not going to change significantly over the next few seasons barring major injury. If we need to trade Monroe, it should be well after we've tested Monroe/Drummond to it's fullest extent (we're talking roughly 2.7 minutes a game on average with no Smith.).

Smith is better than you're giving him credit for and saying he's declined over the last 3 seasons is non-sense, you must be relying on TS% as a be all end all again.

TRB% has dropped from 15.9 to 13.6 to 10.9 (and at his peak wasn't a superb rebounder anyway)
Offensive rating has decreased from 101 to 97 to 95
Defensive rating has increased from 96 to 101 to 105
Free throw rate has dropped from .292 to .272 to .265 (ability to get to the line declines with age, generally)
Three point attempt rate has increased from .099 to .170 to .245 (falling in love with that three point shot)

His TS% actually didn't change his final two years in Atlanta. It was terrible both years, but it was consistent! And there's a few things that remained the same in his final two years in Atlanta as well, such as assist percentage and block percentage. The former has fallen dramatically in Detroit, largely due to Smith currently ranking 12th out of 18 qualifying small forwards in terms of touches-to-passes percentages (roughly 64% adjusted). The block percentage could be argued that it's due to his position, but he hasn't posted a block percentage above 3.8 since 2009-2010. It's 3.3 this year and 3.8 and 3.9 his final to years in Atlanta.

It's not non-sense. There's several indicators that Smith is trending in the wrong direction. Like I said, he could buck some of these trends but I wouldn't bet serious money on it.

[sc8581]

I don't buy the Pistons contending so long as Smith is on the team. Everything about him is trending in the wrong direction. He's an "old" 28, so to speak. 10 years in the league with several playoff appearances and this is the time in most careers where players that rely heavily on athleticism start to fall off significantly. The offensive issues are going to stay bad and the defense is going to continue to decline. He's been declining for three straight seasons and I find little reason to believe he will buck this trend.

Basically, if you look at the Monroe/Drummond combo, it's three years before even one of them enters his prime and 5-6 years before BOTH are in their prime. To me, I am completely unconcerned with contending now and am more worried about having a good team when Drummond is like the Death Star: fully operational.

I'd rather have some level of patience with these two working together. Monroe's value is not going to change significantly over the next few seasons barring major injury. If we need to trade Monroe, it should be well after we've tested Monroe/Drummond to it's fullest extent (we're talking roughly 2.7 minutes a game on average with no Smith.).

Smith is better than you're giving him credit for and saying he's declined over the last 3 seasons is non-sense, you must be relying on TS% as a be all end all again.

TRB% has dropped from 15.9 to 13.6 to 10.9 (and at his peak wasn't a superb rebounder anyway)
Offensive rating has decreased from 101 to 97 to 95
Defensive rating has increased from 96 to 101 to 105
Free throw rate has dropped from .292 to .272 to .265 (ability to get to the line declines with age, generally)
Three point attempt rate has increased from .099 to .170 to .245 (falling in love with that three point shot)

His TS% actually didn't change his final two years in Atlanta. It was terrible both years, but it was consistent! And there's a few things that remained the same in his final two years in Atlanta as well, such as assist percentage and block percentage. The former has fallen dramatically in Detroit, largely due to Smith currently ranking 12th out of 18 qualifying small forwards in terms of touches-to-passes percentages (roughly 64% adjusted). The block percentage could be argued that it's due to his position, but he hasn't posted a block percentage above 3.8 since 2009-2010. It's 3.3 this year and 3.8 and 3.9 his final to years in Atlanta.

It's not non-sense. There's several indicators that Smith is trending in the wrong direction. Like I said, he could buck some of these trends but I wouldn't bet serious money on it.

His rebound rate has dropped because of the players around him, his assist and some other stats because Joe Johnson is no longer his teammate and he needs a #1 option, taking more 3's this year because he's playing out of position, more last year because that's the Hawks new thing. Offensive rating has a lot to do with not having a go-to scorer in Atlanta last year or here this year, defensive rating because Atlanta was a good defensive team until last year because they changed their style and this year he's just on a joke of a defensive team.

What do all of these things have in common? Your stats are junk because in basketball it comes down to the players and the system around you.

[HeroicKennedy]

Atlanta had two go-to scorers in Jeff Teague and Al Horford, both significantly more efficient scorers than Smith on similar shot attempts per game. And keep in mind that when Joe Johnson was in his final year as a Hawk in 2011-2012, Smith posted a .499 TS%. So the "lack of #1 option" excuse doesn't fly because his TS% did not change with or without Joe Johnson. Smith didn't change to fit any new system, he just did the same thing he did offensively both years. And now he's doing similarly. 50%+ of his shots have come from 16+ feet in every season the past 3 years. No "system" changed that. Smith is beyond the "system," not unlike Smith from the Matrix at this point.

They had other three point shooters in Kyle Korver, Louis Williams, DeShawn Stevenson and even Jeff Teague hitting at rates significantly higher than Smith. There's no huge change in Smith's shooting style between SF and PF this year:




Less 3 points, but more long 2's (which are generally considered the worst shot you can take).

Atlanta's defense didn't not change significantly between 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. They went from 6th to 10th, which I would not consider a huge difference. To be fair to Josh, his defense was below the actual overall defense both years, but Smith's defensive win-shares dropped between the two seasons. If I recall correctly, Smith led the league in DWS in 2011-2012, but failed to make the top 20 the next season.

Sorry, but you can stop with the "stats are junk" stuff. If you disagree with what the stats mean, be my guest. But these are the measurable production of what Josh Smith has brought to the tayble the past 3 years. Ignore them at your own peril.

[Clarity]

The Pistons.

[Clarity]

If we need to trade Monroe, it should be well after we've tested Monroe/Drummond to it's fullest extent

And 100

+500 more

[sc8581]

Atlanta had two go-to scorers in Jeff Teague and Al Horford, both significantly more efficient scorers than Smith on similar shot attempts per game. And keep in mind that when Joe Johnson was in his final year as a Hawk in 2011-2012, Smith posted a .499 TS%. So the "lack of #1 option" excuse doesn't fly because his TS% did not change with or without Joe Johnson. Smith didn't change to fit any new system, he just did the same thing he did offensively both years. And now he's doing similarly. 50%+ of his shots have come from 16+ feet in every season the past 3 years. No "system" changed that. Smith is beyond the "system," not unlike Smith from the Matrix at this point.

They had other three point shooters in Kyle Korver, Louis Williams, DeShawn Stevenson and even Jeff Teague hitting at rates significantly higher than Smith. There's no huge change in Smith's shooting style between SF and PF this year:




Less 3 points, but more long 2's (which are generally considered the worst shot you can take).

Atlanta's defense didn't not change significantly between 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. They went from 6th to 10th, which I would not consider a huge difference. To be fair to Josh, his defense was below the actual overall defense both years, but Smith's defensive win-shares dropped between the two seasons. If I recall correctly, Smith led the league in DWS in 2011-2012, but failed to make the top 20 the next season.

Sorry, but you can stop with the "stats are junk" stuff. If you disagree with what the stats mean, be my guest. But these are the measurable production of what Josh Smith has brought to the tayble the past 3 years. Ignore them at your own peril.

Yes, in Johnsons last year in Atlanta Smiths numbers started to tumble, that's because he started taking a lot more shots after Crawford left, 3 more shots per game than the previous year and he's not a #1 option type offensive talent. Smith actually took 1.2 more shots per game than Johnson that season, but part of that just like now is the lack of options around him, Teague and Horford weren't there offensively yet. I don't mean to defend Smith and his shot selection but the numbers tell me that when he had enough offensive talent around him he was fairly efficient. Keep him under 14 shots per game and he's fine.

[HeroicKennedy]

The key isn't the volume of Smith's shots, it's the location. He can shoot less 14 or he can shoot 16+, but his best years came when he avoided long 2's and three pointers. Smith's two best years in terms of efficiency he only attempted roughly 30% of his shots from 16+ feet.

I am guessing a bit here, but it is possible that Smith is simply wearing down and doesn't want to attack the basket as much anymore.

[sc8581]

The key isn't the volume of Smith's shots, it's the location. He can shoot less 14 or he can shoot 16+, but his best years came when he avoided long 2's and three pointers. Smith's two best years in terms of efficiency he only attempted roughly 30% of his shots from 16+ feet.

I am guessing a bit here, but it is possible that Smith is simply wearing down and doesn't want to attack the basket as much anymore.

And I'm saying Smith needs better talent around him to be able to attack the basket more.

[Laimbeer]

If we need to trade Monroe, it should be well after we've tested Monroe/Drummond to it's fullest extent

And 100

Which really won't happen while Smith and Jennings are around.

The best thing the Pistons can do is recognize the summer of 2013 was a disaster to this team's development and undo it.

[ImHeisenberg]

Joe D will find someone. Nobody is taking the 54 million dollar man off our hands. "Joe's Last Stand" is coming soon, and it could help cement mediocrity for the pistons for the next 5+ years.

Every time I hop online I look to see if Detroit has made their panic trade yet. I know it's coming.

[Q00]

If we need to trade Monroe, it should be well after we've tested Monroe/Drummond to it's fullest extent

This was why not starting Drummond last year was such a mega mistake. It wasn't just because fans wanted to see him play more, or because he could've helped us win a few more games in a lottery season. The most important reason was to get a full season of evaluation of the two together. Instead they tried to be clever by waiting until midseason, and ended up outsmarting themselves when Drummond got hurt, and then only getting to see them together for 10 games.

I agree that what they should be doing right now, and should've been the last month or so, is testing each duo on the court starting together. They could've used these games that they lost as experimentation time, and actually got something meaningful from them. They could've used the last month to start Drummond/Smith together with Monroe off the bench, and now be using the next month before the trade deadline to start Drummond/Monroe together to see which they like better, and they could be showcasing Monroe right now in the process.

I thought the way they've handled that situation was very poor over the last year. However, its also possible that they've tried it in practice over the past two years and it never works, and so that's why we never see it in games. I don't know, but when two different coach's are both adverse to playing them together long stretches, you have to wonder if maybe they just don't fit together and the Pistons have already made that determination from practice.