Should Dre miss his 2nd FTs on purpose & try for OREB/Putback instead?

[Manocad]

I acknowledged I was wrong? Where did that happen?

You can't use a 45% average to predict points per possession when you don't know if those shots are coming on 1s, 2s, or 3s. It's ridiculous that I even have to explain this.

Yes, I can. That's the NBA average team shooting percentage for 2-point and 3-point shots. It's ridiculous that you don't grasp this. And like I said, you can break it down further into 2-point shots vs. 3-point shots, which by the way are hit at a less than 45% clip.

You're annoyed because I showed you mathematically why you're wrong. Your argument is "You're stupid! Shut up!" If I'm wrong, SHOW ME MATHEMATICALLY WHY I'M WRONG. Obviously since you have a much greater grasp of probabilities than I do, you should easily be able to show me why my math is wrong. Stop barking and prove it.

[Manocad]

Ok, you're not going to so I'll help you.

The Pistons as a team shoot 33.5% from 3. Dre hits FT's at a 34.7% clip. First FT = 0.347 pts. Pretty simple. Now let's say Dre always intentionally misses the second FT and the Pistons always attempt a 3 if they get the rebound = 3 pts x 33.5% clip = 1.005 pts for a total of 1.352 pts...if the Pistons get EVERY SINGLE REBOUND FROM EVERY INTENTIONALLY MISSED FT AND ALWAYS GET IT OUTSIDE FOR A 3 PT SHOT. If Dre shoots both FT's, he averages 0.694 pts for both FT's. Again, easy to understand. In order for your strategy to be a worthwhile investment, the Pistons would have to get more than 0.347 pts on average from the intentionally missed second FT. Back out from 3 pts/shot made at a 33.5% rate, and the Pistons would have to get the rebound from the missed second FT 34.5% of the time. 3 pts/shot x 33.5% make rate x 34.5% offensive rebound secure rate on a missed FT = 0.347 points.

What you're trying to suggest is that the Pistons would shoot at a higher rate on either a 3-point shot or a 2-point shot and/or they would offensively rebound missed FT's at a higher rate SIMPLY BECAUSE DRE INTENDS TO MISS THE FT.

He misses them all the time now, his teammates know this, and the outcome results in the current statistics. Yet you think you can change that outcome by telling Dre, "Dude--miss it on purpose."


On a side note, as an engineering manager I've hired three guys over the years who got engineering degrees from Lawrence Tech. All good workers, for sure. Also all guys who didn't have the grades to make it into Michigan.