Salary Capology for the near future

[BIG BEN'S FRO]

Something we haven't talked about that much actually. Over the next 2 seasons team will have a ton of cap room, then what? Will the going salary for players go back down since teams will once again start pressing the cap? Will there be a huge cap explosion in 4 years as the ridiculous contracts signed this year expire? Is there an opportunity for us once teams use up their money? Conjecture welcome.

[Snakebites]

Something we haven't talked about that much actually. Over the next 2 seasons team will have a ton of cap room, then what? Will the going salary for players go back down since teams will once again start pressing the cap? Will there be a huge cap explosion in 4 years as the ridiculous contracts signed this year expire? Is there an opportunity for us once teams use up their money? Conjecture welcome.

I've actually given this a fair amount of thought.

It follows logically that the average size of a contract will go up with the salary cap. What I think we're actually seeing here is a temporary increase beyond even that. The salary cap is up, but the majority of the league is still on contracts under the old salary structure, leaving tons of money floating around, and this has disproportionately inflated contracts as teams scramble to meet their short term needs and agents use the leverage they've got.

We'll see this continue next year to an extent as the cap will rise a bit more, but the year after that is where it gets tense. Players and agents have always used contracts similar caliber players get as a ruler to determine what they should demand on the market. That bubble is going to burst in a couple years, when the salary cap is still higher but fewer teams have money to spend. Players will find they can't get what the market "says" they should be able to.

[coordinator0]

I think the cap is going to get a nice bump again in the near future. Not huge, but significant. What the current projections don't and can't include is the revenue from the ad spots that will be on jerseys. There isn't going to be a cap on how much a company will pay to get their logo on a jersey so Philadelphia's reported deal with StubHub for $5 million is a year is likely the very bottom of the barrell. Teams like the Warriors, Lakers, Knicks, etc. will get gigantic advertisement contracts. Now it's on a three-year trial program to start with bu nobody expects the league to end it afterwards (and lose all of that money). I wouldn't be surprised if it was expanded to include more ad spots.

In regards to player contracts I think the market is basically being set. Salaries aren't going to come down from this point, they're only going to keep going up. When the cap settles it's obviously going to be in a much more incremental fashion but they will still rise a bit every year (as will the cap). There won't be a gigantic amount of room at the end of these contracts because the ones signed during the next few summers will be just as large.

What could change things quite a bit is the next CBA negotiation. Expect the rookie scale to rise significantly and there may be things changed regarding maximum contracts and possibly going to a hard cap, or at least changing the structure of the current soft cap.

[Snakebites]

I think the cap is going to get a nice bump again in the near future. Not huge, but significant. What the current projections don't and can't include is the revenue from the ad spots that will be on jerseys. There isn't going to be a cap on how much a company will pay to get their logo on a jersey so Philadelphia's reported deal with StubHub for $5 million is a year is likely the very bottom of the barrell. Teams like the Warriors, Lakers, Knicks, etc. will get gigantic advertisement contracts. Now it's on a three-year trial program to start with bu nobody expects the league to end it afterwards (and lose all of that money). I wouldn't be surprised if it was expanded to include more ad spots.

In regards to player contracts I think the market is basically being set. Salaries aren't going to come down from this point, they're only going to keep going up. When the cap settles it's obviously going to be in a much more incremental fashion but they will still rise a bit every year (as will the cap). There won't be a gigantic amount of room at the end of these contracts because the ones signed during the next few summers will be just as large.

What could change things quite a bit is the next CBA negotiation. Expect the rookie scale to rise significantly and there may be things changed regarding maximum contracts and possibly going to a hard cap, or at least changing the structure of the current soft cap.

Projections are that the cap will increase again next year and then basically level off.

But yeah, I agree the CBA is going to change a lot.

[coordinator0]

Projections are that the cap will increase again next year and then basically level off.

But yeah, I agree the CBA is going to change a lot.

That $102 million projection then leveling off doesn't include the ad spot revenue though, at least as far as I know. The ads don't start until 2017-18 so the revenue won't be counted for cap increase purposes until the 2018-19 season. The cap should still rise from that $102 million mark that and then eventually level off.

[fpower]

Something we haven't talked about that much actually. Over the next 2 seasons team will have a ton of cap room, then what? Will the going salary for players go back down since teams will once again start pressing the cap? Will there be a huge cap explosion in 4 years as the ridiculous contracts signed this year expire? Is there an opportunity for us once teams use up their money? Conjecture welcome.

I've actually given this a fair amount of thought.

It follows logically that the average size of a contract will go up with the salary cap. What I think we're actually seeing here is a temporary increase beyond even that. The salary cap is up, but the majority of the league is still on contracts under the old salary structure, leaving tons of salary room available, and this has disproportionately inflated contracts.

We'll see this continue next year to an extent as the cap will rise a bit more, but the year after that is where it gets tense. Players and agents have always used contracts similar caliber players get as a ruler to determine what they should demand on the market. That bubble is going to burst in a couple years, when the salary cap is still higher but fewer teams have money to spend. Players will find they can't get what the market "says" they should be able to.

I agree with your thoughts. Supply and demand; there are a lot more buyers (teams) than normal due to the cap spike, but still the same amount of sellers (players). That will even out in a couple years, but in the meantime free agents are getting bigger deals than they will 2 years from now.

The more I think about it, I'm kind of happy that Stan cashed everything in this free agency. Next year will be even worse to sign free agents; a lot of guys are going to be really overpaid.

[Snakebites]

I'll wait and see what Leuer and Boban actually look like.

Both are solid role players with very limited track records that we will be paying a combined 18 million dollars for next year. If they don't produce that could be a disaster.

We spent a total of 81 million dollars over the next 4 years on 3 players who will never start for this team. Even with the cap bubble, that's 20% of the cap over the next 4 years on 3 non-starters. One must admit the optics on that aren't great.

[Moses ShamMoses]

I'll wait and see what Leuer and Boban actually look like.

Both are solid role players with very limited track records that we will be paying a combined 18 million dollars for next year. If they don't produce that could be a disaster.

We spent a total of 81 million dollars over the next 4 years on 3 players who will never start for this team. Even with the cap bubble, that's 20% of the cap over the next 4 years on 3 non-starters. One must admit the optics on that aren't great.

I'm a little concerned with Boban at 7 mil per year. I have concerns about his long term durability at his size and stature (mainly his back, feet, knees). I also think he might be too slow to be a solid defender.

[mercury]

I don't have a problem with paying the reserves near the MLE... these are all trade-able contracts... SVG is inching closer to parlaying a couple of tier 2 talents into a tier 1 player.... parallel moves if you will.

[SAKURABA216]

I'll wait and see what Leuer and Boban actually look like.

Both are solid role players with very limited track records that we will be paying a combined 18 million dollars for next year. If they don't produce that could be a disaster.

We spent a total of 81 million dollars over the next 4 years on 3 players who will never start for this team. Even with the cap bubble, that's 20% of the cap over the next 4 years on 3 non-starters. One must admit the optics on that aren't great.

I'm a little concerned with Boban at 7 mil per year. I have concerns about his long term durability at his size and stature (mainly his back, feet, knees). I also think he might be too slow to be a solid defender.

Hopefully Boban can make up for it offensively when our starters are resting and we can dump the ball off to him in the post and see him score with size mismatches, but I think you're right about his defense being suspect at the moment.

[Alexander]

The fears about a bubble bursting are exactly why I'm becoming increasingly thrilled by signing three players to smaller contracts, rather than spending it all on one player.
Al Horford has made four all star games, once as a replacement. He's broken 10 rebounds a game once, and his career high is 18 points a game. His base salary this year is 26.54 million. A cursory google search showed that the camp jumped up 24 million from 70, to 94, or a 34% increase. A 34% boost from Horford's 15-16 salary would have taken him from 12 million to 16 million...and he's getting 8 million more than THAT. He'll be making 30 million as a 33 year old, or the equivalent to 22 million under the "old cap", and we'd all be talking about how he's so overpaid at that figure.
I think the majority of this summers' FA players are going to regret how they spent the cap space. It's like finding twenty dollars in your pants after they finish drying, and you say hey, free money! You didn't count on it, it was a pleasant surprise, so you're able to spend it frivolously. At some point in the future, however, you'll overdraft, and you'll wish you hadn't spent that twenty.

If the bubble bursts, Boban and Smith and Leuer are going to be much easier to move than Horford, or Mike Conley. I'd rather be capped out with those three than capped out with one, impossible to move, player.

[Warspite]

Projections are that the cap will increase again next year and then basically level off.

But yeah, I agree the CBA is going to change a lot.

That $102 million projection then leveling off doesn't include the ad spot revenue though, at least as far as I know. The ads don't start until 2017-18 so the revenue won't be counted for cap increase purposes until the 2018-19 season. The cap should still rise from that $102 million mark that and then eventually level off.

That add revenue will be a complete mess just like the local TV deals are. The Lakers local TV deal increased the salary cap by 4 million forcing every team to spend over 3 million but none of that TV deal money was shared with the other teams.


Since the add rev is experimental there is a chance it wont be BRI. I would much prefer that the add money is not local and is a league wide sponsorship. That the money be split between all teams evenly. Otherwise its just a way for the big market teams to afford the lux tax and something that forces the small market teams to overpay players.

[coordinator0]

Since the add rev is experimental there is a chance it wont be BRI. I would much prefer that the add money is not local and is a league wide sponsorship. That the money be split between all teams evenly. Otherwise its just a way for the big market teams to afford the lux tax and something that forces the small market teams to overpay players.

True. This is unprecedented for the NBA as far as I know so it will be really interesting to see how it's handled. I don't think it will ever go away once it starts though.