Cade and O.J. Mayo...

[EliteSmarts]

I follow Dean on twitter and have for years. Also have discussedbasketball posts on twoplustwo forums for years with him before even having a blog. I listened to the podcast of him and Chad Ford recently. First off Dean loves to go againt the grain on prospects. Thats his thing. Hes sometimes right sometimes wrong.

The whole idea behind the Chad Ford podcast was Ford couldnt find anyone that had Cade not number one. He wanted a guest who argued he wasnt number one for a diff outlook. Dean was that guy. So you really need to take into account that everyone was pro Cade but Dean and not go "well Dean doesnt like Cade I guess I should be worried".

Dean has been against Cade on twitter since game 1 of the season of seeing him and still Dean can only get Cade to 4 on his big board. When the guy who hates you the most still thinks hes 4 I'd say thats a positive. Mind you he has fan favorite Jalen Green at 8 on his big board another consensus top 3 pick.

Now to Mayo. Mayo was actually a good looking player in college. Mayo even was rookie of the year season one. That said you cant just take exact stats like Dean does and go "well Cade is Oj Mayo" First off Mayo is 6'5 with a 6'7 wing span Cade is 6'8 with a 7ft wingspan if we make Cade 6'5 and 6'7 wingspan he loses alot of sexiness. More importantly is OJ Mayo was a complete headcase. Mayo was banned from the league for 2 years for hard drugs, was said to have tons of trouble in High school and college,ended up getting fat in the NBA a few seasons in, and even got USC a one year post season ban. Cade is nothing like Oj Mayo hes just using stats without taking anything else into context.

I appreciate the wonderful insight my guy!

[EliteSmarts]

What I could read of the article came off as someone selecting information and ignoring key facts to build a smart sounding article.




Cade could be great or horrible, but to compare him to Wiggins is ignoring so much about each player.

What are the key factors you think he's ignoring?

I'm being serious, trying to find as much information as I can about first round prospects.

Personally, I think Cade was slightly misused and not in his ideal role in college, and it had a negative effect on some things that stats guys obsess over. NCAA Ast/TO doesn't correlate to anything for wing players in the NBA, but these guys are working under the assumption that Cade is a 'point guard', he's not. All of the best wing playmakers in the NBA had worse projected playmaking abilities than Cade. So I think he is ignoring the context of Cade being an unusual case of a top prospect and ignoring his eye test too much. At the same time he uses Cade's oreb% as evidence he will struggle with NBA speed and physicality by comparing it to NCAA wing players, ignoring that guards and wings will usually have a variance in oreb opportunities. He is switching his projection between guard and wing to help his case basically. Cade's oreb rate is similar to NCAA guards like A Edwards, Klay Thompson, Booker, and had Cade been playing a more tradtional wing role, I'm fairly sure it would be easily in the Jayson Tatum range.
A lot of wings flourish far more in the NBA than they do in the NCAA, which I think will be the case for Cade.
He's also ignoring Cade's ability to improve his game, we've seen it with his shooting, which he has drastically improved. I'm pretty confident skills like ball handling and finishing through contact are skills he will improve too.

He is ignoring that big wing players with skill+shooting+defense are the most valuable archetype in the NBA, and any team that has success deep in the playoffs has one. It's hands down the most important role to fill and this is Detroit's best opportunity to add one.
Even most of Cade's biggest critics usually use Khris Middleton as a potential average outcome for his career, and Middleton is currently coming up huge in NBA finals games.

Fantastic analysis my dude, thanks!

Australian Pistons fan, now that's unique! May I ask, being from Australia. How did you get into NBA and then become Pistons fan?

[The Moose]

What are the key factors you think he's ignoring?

I'm being serious, trying to find as much information as I can about first round prospects.

Personally, I think Cade was slightly misused and not in his ideal role in college, and it had a negative effect on some things that stats guys obsess over. NCAA Ast/TO doesn't correlate to anything for wing players in the NBA, but these guys are working under the assumption that Cade is a 'point guard', he's not. All of the best wing playmakers in the NBA had worse projected playmaking abilities than Cade. So I think he is ignoring the context of Cade being an unusual case of a top prospect and ignoring his eye test too much. At the same time he uses Cade's oreb% as evidence he will struggle with NBA speed and physicality by comparing it to NCAA wing players, ignoring that guards and wings will usually have a variance in oreb opportunities. He is switching his projection between guard and wing to help his case basically. Cade's oreb rate is similar to NCAA guards like A Edwards, Klay Thompson, Booker, and had Cade been playing a more tradtional wing role, I'm fairly sure it would be easily in the Jayson Tatum range.
A lot of wings flourish far more in the NBA than they do in the NCAA, which I think will be the case for Cade.
He's also ignoring Cade's ability to improve his game, we've seen it with his shooting, which he has drastically improved. I'm pretty confident skills like ball handling and finishing through contact are skills he will improve too.

He is ignoring that big wing players with skill+shooting+defense are the most valuable archetype in the NBA, and any team that has success deep in the playoffs has one. It's hands down the most important role to fill and this is Detroit's best opportunity to add one.
Even most of Cade's biggest critics usually use Khris Middleton as a potential average outcome for his career, and Middleton is currently coming up huge in NBA finals games.

Fantastic analysis my dude, thanks!

Australian Pistons fan, now that's unique! May I ask, being from Australia. How did you get into NBA and then become Pistons fan?

Always played basketball, and come from a basketball family, so NBA was always a major interest for me, but its true, not many Pistons fans down here

I first saw them play in the '05 finals on TV when I was about 7/8 yrs old and became borderline obsessed ever since then. The way Big Ben played got me hooked. Safe to say the past decade or so hasn't been the most rewarding but the 2020's seems to be starting off with some new hope which is exciting.

[El Chivo]

Oj Mayo with a brain would have been an all star. Cade has a brain and is taller, bigger and can play better defense.

[DetroitDon15]

Cade is a better ball handler with size as opposed to Mayo. I remember Mayo in college. All the talk was that he was a pure scorer. I don’t remember anything about him being mentioned as an average defender for the position.

I also remember the Darko comments as I still have my rookie Darko jersey.

[Moses ShamMoses]

I will add that after watching 2 full games of Cade's best performances, he didn't exactly impress me with his defense or overall effort on the defensive end. Doesn't really look to rebound, stands around a little too much. I also noticed he likes to jog up the court most possessions. It comes across as a little lackadaisical, but on the other hand, it might just be him not allowing teams to speed him up.

[Manocad]

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/18/is-cade-cunningham-clearly-the-best-prospect-in-2021/

This is really good article and player analysis of Cade Cunningham. After reading this, he is not the home run pick I thought he was.

Luckily for the Pistons, Troy Weaver is making the pick and not Toronto fans. Us Pistons fans are just fine with taking Cade #1, but we thank you for your concern.

[hoophabit]

I will add that after watching 2 full games of Cade's best performances, he didn't exactly impress me with his defense or overall effort on the defensive end. Doesn't really look to rebound, stands around a little too much. I also noticed he likes to jog up the court most possessions. It comes across as a little lackadaisical, but on the other hand, it might just be him not allowing teams to speed him up.

I guess it goes to show we all live in a different reality? My sole substantial reason for favoring Cade is I watched one complete OS game where he did everything. I don't remember who they played but OS won. I know OS, as a whole, wasn't a great team. Cade made long shots, mid-range shots, made shots with both hands down low, lots of nice passing, and I was profoundly impressed. I thought he showed good leadership and effort. I do remember thinking "the Pistons are never that lucky."