Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

[The Moose]

team just has to keep their head down and... keep losing.

normally i wouldn't be too worried if we dropped one spot - our odds wouldn't change at all, there would just be the potential to draft 7th. but there are so many teams having similar records. if we did end up in a four way tie then we would split the odds evenly which wouldn't change our odds much but it could mean that we had the potential to draft like 10th, depending on how the tie breakers went.

example: orlando currently is tied with cleveland in the 5/6 slots so they have the same odds at the top four picks, but because they lost (they won it technically, but lost for draft purposes) the tie breaker then they have a 3.6% chance of dropping to 9th (0.1% chance of dropping to 10th). the thunder have the same amount of wins as those two teams but one more loss so they could definitely be in a three way tie, which means despite having the same record and same odds one team could be drafting 10th but another guaranteed to draft in the top 8.

with minny and us sitting a win behind those teams things could get REAL messy with a potential five-way tie. it would really suck to go from having a guaranteed top 6 pick if we finished second last to dealing with that whole mess.

lottery tiebreakers are done via coin flip, not related to the h2h records. With that being said, im not sure how a 5 way coin toss is done

[Canadafan]

I'm cheering for Minny over Orlando. Puts us in sole 2nd last place.
Then we need to lose out including our game vs Minny. And we goooooood

[zeebneeb]

Would you guy trade the 1st overall pick for two top 5 picks in this draft?
Like the 3rd pick along with the 4th or 5th?

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I've talked about this before and depending on who Weaver is targeting, I absolutely would do it.

If Weaver is targeting Green, not Cade, and they land in the top spot, and OKC is at 2 and they REALLY want Cade, you rake them over the coals for that top spot. Is there a chance your trading a doncic level player? You bet, but I would argue there is an equal chance that by drafting Cade, and not Green your doing the same thing.

The draft is a crapshoot, and it's even more tense within the top 3 spots, as all Piston fans know.

Darko or Wade. As great as it is to land those super high picks, it comes with a degree of stress as you could be the guy to pick the next Marvin Bagley.

Personally, if I had controll over the top selection im drafting Cade with the caveat that if a team comes to me with an absolutely outrageous offer, such as the one you have proposed, I do that instead. Drafting Cade, or drafting potentially Green and Mobley? Yeah, that's easy and actually increases the odds you land a monster in the top 4 as you have two of the 4 top picks!

That's a crazy proposal, and the odds of that actually happening are so slim im not even sure it's worth mentioning. I love Green, but passing on Cade for anything less then 2+4 could be a massive mistake if you land #1.

[bstein14]

To me, Cade isn't a Zion or Ja Morant type player. He isn't a sure fire franchise cornerstone. If you can trade him and get multiple firsts to move into 2nd or 3rd in this draft I think it's worth considering. It's super unlikely we have that problem, and its a high risk move to make because if he does become great its a trade that you never dig yourself out of and will always be remembered for.

It's been mentioned here before, but Boston traded out of #1 and then got the better player at #3 in Tatum and got another 1st. So if you think you can get two or three more first rounders and have a legit chance and getting the better player in the top 4 as well it makes sense to make a trade.

If you feel like Cade is the clear cut best prospect you don't move him.

[Manocad]

To me, Cade isn't a Zion or Ja Morant type player. He isn't a sure fire franchise cornerstone. If you can trade him and get multiple firsts to move into 2nd or 3rd in this draft I think it's worth considering. It's super unlikely we have that problem, and its a high risk move to make because if he does become great its a trade that you never dig yourself out of and will always be remembered for.

It's been mentioned here before, but Boston traded out of #1 and then got the better player at #3 in Tatum and got another 1st. So if you think you can get two or three more first rounders and have a legit chance and getting the better player in the top 4 as well it makes sense to make a trade.

If you feel like Cade is the clear cut best prospect you don't move him.

I think Cade could easily be a better player than Ja Morant.

[jakebernat]

Ja “get worked by Corey Joseph” Morant

[Manocad]

Ja “get worked by Corey Joseph” Morant

Yeah, when I think "cornerstone player" I'd certainly throw Zion in the mix but Ja Morant is a stretch for me.

[Snakebites]

I'm cheering for Minny over Orlando. Puts us in sole 2nd last place.
Then we need to lose out including our game vs Minny. And we goooooood

I’m the opposite. I want 2 wins separation between us and Orlando.

The difference between 2 and 3 is very small (non-existent in terms of lotto chances for 1-4), and the difference between them and 4 isn’t much bigger.

What I really want is reassurance we won’t fall to 5 or 6. A Magic win gives us margin of error.

[NYPiston]

We should be rooting for Orlando tonight. It gives them 2 wins of separation and it's likely their last chance at a win. As Snakebites said, it's important to stay in the top 4 because the top 4 lottery odds are pretty much flat 1-4.

On paper, this looks like a fairly difficult schedule but as I've been thinking for weeks, the Denver and Miami games are big concerns. With Denver's loss last night and Miami's win today, it's looking even less likely that those games will mean anything to them so I expect them to play skeleton crews. I think those are likely wins for the Pistons now.

[Manocad]

I'm cheering for Minny over Orlando. Puts us in sole 2nd last place.
Then we need to lose out including our game vs Minny. And we goooooood

I’m the opposite. I want 2 wins separation between us and Orlando.

The difference between 2 and 3 is very small (non-existent in terms of lotto chances for 1-4), and the difference between them and 4 isn’t much bigger.

What I really want is reassurance we won’t fall to 5 or 6. A Magic win gives us margin of error.

It doesn't matter. Assume that OKC and Cleveland lose out and finish at 21 wins.

A Magic win puts them in sole possession of the 6th spot at 22 wins, assuming they then lose out. In that instance if the Pistons happen to win one game other than Minnesota they'd have to dump to Minnesota just to then likely be in a 4-way tie for second worst at 21 wins with OKC, Minny, and Cleveland.

Minny beats Orlando and the Pistons are then in complete control of the second worst pick at 20 wins if they lose out. If the Pistons win one game and still dump to Minny, they're looking at a 4-way tie for second worst at 21 wins with OKC, Orlando and Cleveland, with Minny being the odd man out at 22 wins.

Basically the Pistons just need to lose out. 21 wins is a danger zone no matter what happens.

[buzzkilloton]

To me, Cade isn't a Zion or Ja Morant type player. He isn't a sure fire franchise cornerstone. If you can trade him and get multiple firsts to move into 2nd or 3rd in this draft I think it's worth considering. It's super unlikely we have that problem, and its a high risk move to make because if he does become great its a trade that you never dig yourself out of and will always be remembered for.

It's been mentioned here before, but Boston traded out of #1 and then got the better player at #3 in Tatum and got another 1st. So if you think you can get two or three more first rounders and have a legit chance and getting the better player in the top 4 as well it makes sense to make a trade.

If you feel like Cade is the clear cut best prospect you don't move him.

Cade is surely a better prospect then Morant who I also liked as a prospect. Ja came out with a year of more college experience then Cade. Cade would put up absurd numbers if he came back for a 2nd season just like Ja did esp in a weak conf like Murray States(not Cade has bad numbers). Outside of that Cade is 6'8 and can play multiple positions and is a better shooter. I mean sure Ja is a better athlete but being 6'8 with a 7ft wingspan is sooo much more valuable then a guy who is 6'3.

Cade over Ja as a prospect actually isnt even the debate to me. The debate would be Suggs or Ja as prospects. I actually think I may lean Suggs but I think its very close with these two and could see someone going either way.

[joeposh]

Well, I think it's pretty obvious where this ORL/MIN game is going to land. SAC is probably the last best hope of the Thunder winning a game, and even that feels like a stretch. It really is up to us.

[Manocad]

Well, I think it's pretty obvious where this ORL/MIN game is going to land. SAC is probably the last best hope of the Thunder winning a game, and even that feels like a stretch. It really is up to us.

I just got home from the movies (saw Wrath of Man; it's no Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels or Snatch but it's entertaining), turned the Pistons on and checked the scores and holy moly--the Magic got a beat down in the first half.

[Canadafan]

This is great kids....we are second last in the league now with Minny winning.
We lose our remaining games. Easy peasy. Minny likely becomes #6. The other 3teams tie for 3rd worse.
Boom.

[Manocad]

This is great kids....we are second last in the league now with Minny winning.
We lose our remaining games. Easy peasy. Minny likely becomes #6. The other 3teams tie for 3rd worse.
Boom.

Yeah, even I'm board at this point where Casey needs to be doing everything he can do to lose games, within reason obviously.

[NYPiston]

Just took a peak at the scoreboard and this is some epic tanking going on. Cleveland down by 30, Orlando down by 40!!!, Pistons getting beat down (so far, don't want to jinx it). The Pistons have to lose all 3 or this might well come down to a 5 team coin toss, however that works.

[zeebneeb]

Its in the Pistons hands now. They will have the #2 worst record, a guarantee top 6 pick(first that high since 2003 Darko)so losing is essential.

Good night so far!

[Snakebites]

Well, I guess I have to hope you guys were right.

Orlando means business.

[chrbal]

I legitimately forgot, do we prefer Orlando losing or winning tonight?

[whitehops]

I legitimately forgot, do we prefer Orlando losing or winning tonight?

if we lose out then minny winning tonight is definitely the more favourable option. preferring orlando to win would be for insurance we don't fall too far in case we do win one of the remaining games.