2020-2021 NBA Prospects/ NBA Draft

[vic]

The question is:

Are we actually trying to be a championship organisation?

Plenty of teams are quite content to simply make the playoffs year after year (Pacers and Blazers immediately come to mind) but tbh that's kinda missing a lot of steps along the way.

Right now we need to get some serious talent on the roster, a dude that over the next 3-7 years will (hopefully) be the cornerstone of what we do.

The young guys we have already have "potential", Grant is young enough to hang around for that long and is obviously capable...

But we need a big game player.

I personally have the top 4 as Cade, Green, Suggs then Mobley - simply because you need guys that can create off the bounce and break down a defence.

That said it wouldn't surprise me if Weaver has Mobley as his 2nd choice and not because "lol he loves bigs".

Mobley could be that unicorn big. The names brought up as a comparison are/were all franchise players on their own at one point (AD, Bosh) and got their teams to the post season with limited help.

A roster with Stewart, Mobley, Grant, Sekou, Bey has a lot of flexibility to go big or small IF they all reach their potential:

Stewart 30 - Mobley 10 - Grant 8
Mobley 20 - Sekou 18 - Grant 10
Grant 16 - Sekou 10 - Bey 22
Bey 12

Grant = 34 between the 3, 4 & small ball 5
Bey = 34 between the 3 & 2
Stewart = 30
Mobley = 30 between the 4 and 5
Sekou = 28 between the 3 and 4

Leaves 48 minutes at PG (Hayes + ?)
Leaves 36 minutes at SG for dudes that can bomb from 3.



Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM mobile app

I say begin with the end in mind - championships: get the best and rarest two-way talent, skill, mentality, and size combination you can find, as early as possible

[buzzkilloton]

I don't get the idea that any of the top 4 guys only have xyz potential. They all are potential studs. You can debate about whether they will get there or not, but they all have the talent base.

just a reminder - this was the from the weakness section of nbadraft.net

Weaknesses: He …


And that was for Luka Doncic. Those were legit questions about how high his ceiling could be at the time.

Doncic had some doubters based on being a Euro. Alot of Euros have been busts. He also had alot of people who thought he could be a superstar.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/2018/

The ringer actually compared him to Harden or a jumbo manu ginobli.

https://deanondraft.com/2017/02/03/is-luka-doncic-the-best-prospect-ever/

Dean thought he was a Lebron level prospect.


Of course some guys surprise you with a higher ceiling then expected. You still should project guys based on what you can. Green will be limited by his length and frame on defense. On offense his upside is ofc immense esp if he developd a consistent 3pt shot.

The knock on him wasn't that he was euro. It was that he didn't have the athleticism to be an elite 2 way player in the NBA. And really, he's not a fantastic defender or anything, but he's absolutely the type of guy that you could ride to multiple championships.

Which is my point about the top guys in this draft. If they max out what they are good at, they could all be elite players. It's not like last year where Wiseman went #2 and everyone knew he might be an all-star, but he wasn't going to be your #1 guy.

Lead ball handlers dont need to be elite athletes esp if their 6’7 with a 7 ft wingspan. If he played in the NCAA and did the things he did in Europe he would of been the one pick. Teams are always uneasy about the Euros as so many have busted in the past at the top of the draft.

As I said many people thought Doncic was a true unicorn prospect. Go back and read threads about him he had 3 100 pagers in the draft forum because of how big time of a prospect he was. He had alot hype he was compared to James Harden a mvp coming out. His ceiling was always absurdly high people were just iffy because weve seen many great Euro prospects be meh or complete bust in the nba.

Saying his build doesn’t translate to Mj or Kobe doesnt make him a bad prospect. Its just like stating the obv Mobley doesnt project to be a Shaq, Duncan, or Embiid he projects more of a Bosh or AD light type hes skinny and even adding muscle your limited to what you can add. Actually ceiling wise Kuminga has one of the hoghest in the draft right next to Cade but his bust factor is so high most arent interested.

[vic]

Doncic had some doubters based on being a Euro. Alot of Euros have been busts. He also had alot of people who thought he could be a superstar.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/2018/

The ringer actually compared him to Harden or a jumbo manu ginobli.

https://deanondraft.com/2017/02/03/is-luka-doncic-the-best-prospect-ever/

Dean thought he was a Lebron level prospect.


Of course some guys surprise you with a higher ceiling then expected. You still should project guys based on what you can. Green will be limited by his length and frame on defense. On offense his upside is ofc immense esp if he developd a consistent 3pt shot.

The knock on him wasn't that he was euro. It was that he didn't have the athleticism to be an elite 2 way player in the NBA. And really, he's not a fantastic defender or anything, but he's absolutely the type of guy that you could ride to multiple championships.

Which is my point about the top guys in this draft. If they max out what they are good at, they could all be elite players. It's not like last year where Wiseman went #2 and everyone knew he might be an all-star, but he wasn't going to be your #1 guy.

Lead ball handlers dont need to be elite athletes esp if their 6’7 with a 7 ft wingspan. If he played in the NCAA and did the things he did in Europe he would of been the one pick. Teams are always uneasy about the Euros as so many have busted in the past at the top of the draft.

As I said many people thought Doncic was a true unicorn prospect. Go back and read threads about him he had 3 100 pagers in the draft forum because of how big time of a prospect he was. He had alot hype he was compared to James Harden a mvp coming out. His ceiling was always absurdly high people were just iffy because weve seen many great Euro prospects be meh or complete bust in the nba.

Saying his build doesn’t translate to Mj or Kobe doesnt make him a bad prospect. Its just like stating the obv Mobley doesnt project to be a Shaq, Duncan, or Embiid he projects more of a Bosh or AD light type hes skinny and even adding muscle your limited to what you can add. Actually ceiling wise Kuminga has one of the hoghest in the draft right next to Cade but his bust factor is so high most arent interested.

Count me in on Kuminga, age is a huge factor in ceiling. The earlier you can play against higher competition, the better you end up. Kuminga was a high school senior in the G League. That's part of what some people overlooked about Luka. He was a teenager competing against grown men

[Manocad]

The knock on him wasn't that he was euro. It was that he didn't have the athleticism to be an elite 2 way player in the NBA. And really, he's not a fantastic defender or anything, but he's absolutely the type of guy that you could ride to multiple championships.

Which is my point about the top guys in this draft. If they max out what they are good at, they could all be elite players. It's not like last year where Wiseman went #2 and everyone knew he might be an all-star, but he wasn't going to be your #1 guy.

Lead ball handlers dont need to be elite athletes esp if their 6’7 with a 7 ft wingspan. If he played in the NCAA and did the things he did in Europe he would of been the one pick. Teams are always uneasy about the Euros as so many have busted in the past at the top of the draft.

As I said many people thought Doncic was a true unicorn prospect. Go back and read threads about him he had 3 100 pagers in the draft forum because of how big time of a prospect he was. He had alot hype he was compared to James Harden a mvp coming out. His ceiling was always absurdly high people were just iffy because weve seen many great Euro prospects be meh or complete bust in the nba.

Saying his build doesn’t translate to Mj or Kobe doesnt make him a bad prospect. Its just like stating the obv Mobley doesnt project to be a Shaq, Duncan, or Embiid he projects more of a Bosh or AD light type hes skinny and even adding muscle your limited to what you can add. Actually ceiling wise Kuminga has one of the hoghest in the draft right next to Cade but his bust factor is so high most arent interested.

Count me in on Kuminga, age is a huge factor in ceiling. The earlier you can play against higher competition, the better you end up. Kuminga was a high school senior in the G League. That's part of what some people overlooked about Luka. He was a teenager competing against grown men

How is age a huge factor in ceiling? Like getting drafted into the NBA at a younger age gives a player a better shot at being an All Star/HOFer? For every Luka there's a Darko or a Kwame Brown.

[vic]

Lead ball handlers dont need to be elite athletes esp if their 6’7 with a 7 ft wingspan. If he played in the NCAA and did the things he did in Europe he would of been the one pick. Teams are always uneasy about the Euros as so many have busted in the past at the top of the draft.

As I said many people thought Doncic was a true unicorn prospect. Go back and read threads about him he had 3 100 pagers in the draft forum because of how big time of a prospect he was. He had alot hype he was compared to James Harden a mvp coming out. His ceiling was always absurdly high people were just iffy because weve seen many great Euro prospects be meh or complete bust in the nba.

Saying his build doesn’t translate to Mj or Kobe doesnt make him a bad prospect. Its just like stating the obv Mobley doesnt project to be a Shaq, Duncan, or Embiid he projects more of a Bosh or AD light type hes skinny and even adding muscle your limited to what you can add. Actually ceiling wise Kuminga has one of the hoghest in the draft right next to Cade but his bust factor is so high most arent interested.

Count me in on Kuminga, age is a huge factor in ceiling. The earlier you can play against higher competition, the better you end up. Kuminga was a high school senior in the G League. That's part of what some people overlooked about Luka. He was a teenager competing against grown men

How is age a huge factor in ceiling? Like getting drafted into the NBA at a younger age gives a player a better shot at being an All Star/HOFer? For every Luka there's a Darko or a Kwame Brown.

The younger they are, the more years of brain growth and skill development they have left until they hit their physical peak. Age is huge in the scouting world. Teams that know what they are doing use it to their advantage. There's data to back it up also, you just have to look it up.

[Manocad]

Count me in on Kuminga, age is a huge factor in ceiling. The earlier you can play against higher competition, the better you end up. Kuminga was a high school senior in the G League. That's part of what some people overlooked about Luka. He was a teenager competing against grown men

How is age a huge factor in ceiling? Like getting drafted into the NBA at a younger age gives a player a better shot at being an All Star/HOFer? For every Luka there's a Darko or a Kwame Brown.

The younger they are, the more years of brain growth and skill development they have left until they hit their physical peak. Age is huge in the scouting world. Teams that know what they are doing use it to their advantage. There's data to back it up also, you just have to look it up.

That's just math. When we talk about a player's ceiling it's generally in terms of how good they can become, not how long they'll be good. The average age of an NBA player during their best season is 27 and the average age of MVP's is 28. Also, the average career length of NBA HOFers is 14 years. Point being, the data would suggest that the focus should be on securing players during those peak years rather than putting a focus on the age at which they were drafted or what they did before they were drafted.

Generally speaking, if you make a claim it's incumbent on you to provide a link to the data or the data itself that backs up your claim. I tried researching a little on the average draft age of NBA HOFers but couldn't find anything so all I can do is go from memory, and my memory is that players who were older when drafted generally did better sooner. Not to mention, what are the odds these days that a player drafted at 19-20 will still be with the team when they peak at 27-28?

[440BB]

For every Luka there's a Darko or a Kwame Brown.

I estimate for every Luka there are at least a dozen teenage washouts.

[Manocad]

For every Luka there's a Darko or a Kwame Brown.

I estimate for every Luka there are at least a dozen teenage washouts.

I'm from a generation where college juniors and seniors 21-22 years old were more highly valued in the draft due to being more developed and mature. This was before the one-and-done era obviously, but I still have that opinion personally. I've seen too many 19 year olds in all sports get drafted high, get a nice contract, and go straight up stupid. So I don't get the thought process of literally shying away from a 22 year old college senior because he basically is considered as not having enough good years left in him. When players peak at 27-28 it doesn't matter whether you're getting them at 19 or 21, quite frankly.

[DNice68]

The thing with Greeb being a "Beal/Zach" guy:

We have Hayes who at worst looks capable of delivering the ball to him while also being able to play D at a really good level.

Then add Bey & Stewart to them

Mobley is cool too cause that allows up to play 4 out or 5 out depending on development and match ups.

It always comes down to the player's mentality though. Which guy in the top 5 is the most driven?

That's what separates the Jordan/Kobe/Wade types from the Zach/Beal types

Or the Timmy/KG types from whatever 2nd class big you want to name

Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM mobile app

Its not just mental though. Thats some part of it sure. Size and length also has alot to do with things. Make Lebron James 6'5 with a 6'7 wingspan hes not going to be the GOAT or GOAT 2 still just because of mental. Hes the GOAT because hes got the talent, athletic ability, mental,size and length combo all in one.

Also I'm not even sure either Beal or Lavine are lacking in the mental area. Look at the dramatic improvements they've made from year 1 till current season in the NBA.They may not be straight Mamba mentality but very few are. I've never heard anything bad about their mental games. The drastic improvements show they clearly work hard.

Look at the improvements in their games from rookie till today:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lavinza01.html

Just not every player has the build to dominate on both ends.

Wingspan meant everything for Stanley Johnson, I mean 7’0 wingspan, how was he a bust. Andre Drummond should have been destined to be a defensive terror with a 7’6 wingspan. Green is already a solid defender, and his freakish athleticism makes up for that wingspan. He’s bigger and more athletic than Beal, and shoots better than LaVine did coming out of UCLA. He’d be a hell of a get!

[flow]

Count me in on Kuminga, age is a huge factor in ceiling. The earlier you can play against higher competition, the better you end up. Kuminga was a high school senior in the G League. That's part of what some people overlooked about Luka. He was a teenager competing against grown men

How is age a huge factor in ceiling? Like getting drafted into the NBA at a younger age gives a player a better shot at being an All Star/HOFer? For every Luka there's a Darko or a Kwame Brown.

The younger they are, the more years of brain growth and skill development they have left until they hit their physical peak. Age is huge in the scouting world. Teams that know what they are doing use it to their advantage. There's data to back it up also, you just have to look it up.

This is a double-edged sword. I endured 7 years of people defending Drummond to me on the ridiculous basis of, "But he's only _____ years old! He's still so young!"

You can waste a lot of time & money on youth for the sake of youth.

.

[The Moose]

Moody has been intriguing me recently, I think he has a chance to be this years Saddiq Bey

[vic]

How is age a huge factor in ceiling? Like getting drafted into the NBA at a younger age gives a player a better shot at being an All Star/HOFer? For every Luka there's a Darko or a Kwame Brown.

The younger they are, the more years of brain growth and skill development they have left until they hit their physical peak. Age is huge in the scouting world. Teams that know what they are doing use it to their advantage. There's data to back it up also, you just have to look it up.

This is a double-edged sword. I endured 7 years of people defending Drummond to me on the ridiculous basis of, "But he's only _____ years old! He's still so young!"

You can waste a lot of time & money on youth for the sake of youth.

.

I never said get a bad player because they are young.

The younger you get a good player, the better he will be as he develops. You can’t put a square peg in a round hole just because he’s young.

[Manocad]

The younger they are, the more years of brain growth and skill development they have left until they hit their physical peak. Age is huge in the scouting world. Teams that know what they are doing use it to their advantage. There's data to back it up also, you just have to look it up.

This is a double-edged sword. I endured 7 years of people defending Drummond to me on the ridiculous basis of, "But he's only _____ years old! He's still so young!"

You can waste a lot of time & money on youth for the sake of youth.

.

I never said get a bad player because they are young.

The younger you get a good player, the better he will be as he develops. You can’t put a square peg in a round hole just because he’s young.

I'd like to see the data you say is out there, because that's impossible to prove. You obviously can't do a comparative case study on the same player. Thus you can only make a correlation which would be that players entering the NBA at a younger age have better careers on average than players who enter the NBA at an older age. I don't believe that to be true.

[vic]

How is age a huge factor in ceiling? Like getting drafted into the NBA at a younger age gives a player a better shot at being an All Star/HOFer? For every Luka there's a Darko or a Kwame Brown.

The younger they are, the more years of brain growth and skill development they have left until they hit their physical peak. Age is huge in the scouting world. Teams that know what they are doing use it to their advantage. There's data to back it up also, you just have to look it up.

That's just math. When we talk about a player's ceiling it's generally in terms of how good they can become, not how long they'll be good. The average age of an NBA player during their best season is 27 and the average age of MVP's is 28. Also, the average career length of NBA HOFers is 14 years. Point being, the data would suggest that the focus should be on securing players during those peak years rather than putting a focus on the age at which they were drafted or what they did before they were drafted.

Generally speaking, if you make a claim it's incumbent on you to provide a link to the data or the data itself that backs up your claim. I tried researching a little on the average draft age of NBA HOFers but couldn't find anything so all I can do is go from memory, and my memory is that players who were older when drafted generally did better sooner. Not to mention, what are the odds these days that a player drafted at 19-20 will still be with the team when they peak at 27-28?

https://towardsdatascience.com/the-asset-of-age-e4b45599ea94

https://www.libertyballers.com/platform/amp/2016/4/13/11376588/nba-draft-age-star-superstar-draft-analysis

You get good players young and keep them in their prime with money. Do this 2 or 3 times and you have a really good team.

It’s harder to steal HOF players in their prime after they have already developed, they generally do what they want to do, and charge a premium.

[Manocad]

The younger they are, the more years of brain growth and skill development they have left until they hit their physical peak. Age is huge in the scouting world. Teams that know what they are doing use it to their advantage. There's data to back it up also, you just have to look it up.

That's just math. When we talk about a player's ceiling it's generally in terms of how good they can become, not how long they'll be good. The average age of an NBA player during their best season is 27 and the average age of MVP's is 28. Also, the average career length of NBA HOFers is 14 years. Point being, the data would suggest that the focus should be on securing players during those peak years rather than putting a focus on the age at which they were drafted or what they did before they were drafted.

Generally speaking, if you make a claim it's incumbent on you to provide a link to the data or the data itself that backs up your claim. I tried researching a little on the average draft age of NBA HOFers but couldn't find anything so all I can do is go from memory, and my memory is that players who were older when drafted generally did better sooner. Not to mention, what are the odds these days that a player drafted at 19-20 will still be with the team when they peak at 27-28?

https://towardsdatascience.com/the-asset-of-age-e4b45599ea94

https://www.libertyballers.com/platform/amp/2016/4/13/11376588/nba-draft-age-star-superstar-draft-analysis

You get good players young and keep them in their prime with money. Do this 2 or 3 times and you have a really good team.

It’s harder to steal HOF players in their prime after they have already developed, they generally do what they want to do, and charge a premium.

Interesting data. Obviously it's only correlative and it doesn't indicate that age is a "huge factor" in a player's ceiling, but it supports the hypothesis that players drafted at a younger age can peak more quickly and have a higher peak. The second link is from 2016 and the writer even said it's possible he made mistakes, and the first writer explicitly stated that the correlation should only be a deciding factor in choosing between two players of equal talent, i.e. you don't choose a younger player demonstrating slightly lower skill because he's younger over an older player showing slightly higher skill. The writer also stated that teams generally get it right with who they draft, meaning eventual star players have generally been drafted high regardless of their age when drafted.

[buzzkilloton]

The thing with Greeb being a "Beal/Zach" guy:

We have Hayes who at worst looks capable of delivering the ball to him while also being able to play D at a really good level.

Then add Bey & Stewart to them

Mobley is cool too cause that allows up to play 4 out or 5 out depending on development and match ups.

It always comes down to the player's mentality though. Which guy in the top 5 is the most driven?

That's what separates the Jordan/Kobe/Wade types from the Zach/Beal types

Or the Timmy/KG types from whatever 2nd class big you want to name

Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM mobile app

Its not just mental though. Thats some part of it sure. Size and length also has alot to do with things. Make Lebron James 6'5 with a 6'7 wingspan hes not going to be the GOAT or GOAT 2 still just because of mental. Hes the GOAT because hes got the talent, athletic ability, mental,size and length combo all in one.

Also I'm not even sure either Beal or Lavine are lacking in the mental area. Look at the dramatic improvements they've made from year 1 till current season in the NBA.They may not be straight Mamba mentality but very few are. I've never heard anything bad about their mental games. The drastic improvements show they clearly work hard.

Look at the improvements in their games from rookie till today:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lavinza01.html

Just not every player has the build to dominate on both ends.

Wingspan meant everything for Stanley Johnson, I mean 7’0 wingspan, how was he a bust. Andre Drummond should have been destined to be a defensive terror with a 7’6 wingspan. Green is already a solid defender, and his freakish athleticism makes up for that wingspan. He’s bigger and more athletic than Beal, and shoots better than LaVine did coming out of UCLA. He’d be a hell of a get!

Stanley is a good defender. He just never had offense to go with it. How do you think he gets 16.5 minutes a game still despite being terrible on offense? Drummond problems are mental.

Beal was measured 6'3 with no shoes and a 6'8 wingspan at the combine with a standing reach of 8'4 at 202 pounds . Green is being listed 6'5 with shoes at 6'7 wingspan at 191 pounds with a standing reach of 8'5. I dont see how Green is "bigger". If anything it looks like they measure out pretty close as wingspan and standing reach are the important factors. It will be interesting to see how Green measures predraft.

Green is a better athlete then Beal but its not like Beal was a bad athlete. Beal had a smoother shot though and was also a very high draft pick. Its not a insult to say his ceiling is Beal who was a 3 pick who averages 30ppg. If Green turns into Beal you're thriled with the pick.

[Manocad]

Shoot, at 30 PPG you’re thrilled period. Even if the player sucks on D you can put strong defensive players around him.

[flow]

The younger they are, the more years of brain growth and skill development they have left until they hit their physical peak. Age is huge in the scouting world. Teams that know what they are doing use it to their advantage. There's data to back it up also, you just have to look it up.

This is a double-edged sword. I endured 7 years of people defending Drummond to me on the ridiculous basis of, "But he's only _____ years old! He's still so young!"

You can waste a lot of time & money on youth for the sake of youth.

.

I never said get a bad player because they are young.

The younger you get a good player, the better he will be as he develops. You can’t put a square peg in a round hole just because he’s young.

That's the thing, though. No one thinks they're drafting a bad player. And no one wants to admit they've drafted a bad player. The younger you draft, the longer you're likely to stick with them. For better or worse.

.

[Manocad]

The younger they are, the more years of brain growth and skill development they have left until they hit their physical peak. Age is huge in the scouting world. Teams that know what they are doing use it to their advantage. There's data to back it up also, you just have to look it up.

This is a double-edged sword. I endured 7 years of people defending Drummond to me on the ridiculous basis of, "But he's only _____ years old! He's still so young!"

You can waste a lot of time & money on youth for the sake of youth.

.

I never said get a bad player because they are young.

The younger you get a good player, the better he will be as he develops. You can’t put a square peg in a round hole just because he’s young.

Potentially better. The data you provided was explicitly stated as being correlative and not causal since it's impossible to prove causality. As I explained, the writer who compiled the best set of data even said that teams generally get their picks right--players that turned out to be really good were drafted high. Point being, the best players were obviously also really good when they were younger which certainly is WHY they got drafted at 18-20 years old. So it literally could simply be a case that generally speaking players drafted at 18-20 years old who went on to have higher average ceilings were just better players in the first place, relatively speaking. Getting into the NBA at a younger age literally may have had nothing to do with it.

Now, that being said, certainly with a big enough set of correlative data and you're facing a choice between two players of equal skill sets/ability and one is 19 and the other is 21, there's no risk in using the correlative data to tip the scale in favor of the younger player, which is exactly what the writer suggested. And that's all he suggested, frankly. There was no case presented that getting a player into the NBA sooner WILL--not could, but WILL--increase his ceiling.

[Billl]

It's not exactly a secret that most of the top prospects are 1 and done guys at this point. You take the money when it's offered to you and don't risk injury.

Of course, that doesn't mean later bloomers don't have upside. Michael Jordan was a 21 yr old rookie - as was steph curry. Tim Duncan got red shirted and came in at 22.

And pistons fans should never forget we drafted that 17-yr-old Darko for his upside over a more game ready Wade at 21.