The Race To The Bottom - theBigLip Tank Machine

[Drwho17]

Pistons are coming, they would be near Orlando now if they had not lost Cade C for the season. Next year, Cade/Scoot and new coach, plus Ivey/Duren experience and whatever they pick up in Free Agency, Pistons will be much improved and from there the wins will just be going up.

[NYPiston]

Worst part about this rebuild, is up to this point, we haven't found that top end talent. Grizzlies got it in Ja. Pelicans got it in Zion. Mavs got it in Luka. OKC traded for it in SGA. Orlando appears to have landed it in Banchero (verdict still out a bit but he's shown more as a rookie than Cade did). Celtics got it in Tatum, etc... our top 3 pick in Cade I feel is going to be a good player but I still have some real doubts he ever gets to being a top 10-12 player carry a franchise type.

It's hard to get out of the first round in this league without a top talent. Obviously the 04 Pistons did it with 4 starters that were likely in the 15 to 30 range in the league, as well as great depth and great coaching.... but 98% of teams that make it to the conference finals have a top tier talent #1 guy on their team like a Luka, Giannis, Tatum, KD, Curry, Ja, SGA, Zion, Jokic, etc.

SGA wasn't THAT guy until this season, his 5th season, while Cade only played 1 with less talent than SGA has surrounding him now. Cade absolutely showed as much as Banchero did in this rookie season. Luka is different level, from everybody really. Tatum is another guy who didn't REALLY start breaking out until last season and especially this year.

I'm not saying that Cade will hit the heights that Tatum and SGA are hitting this season but it's way too early to cap him out as just a "good player". He absolutely showed some star potential the second half of last season, he has it in him to be a top 10-15 player and he'll have to be if the Pistons ever want Championship aspirations. Cade is the key to everything which is why it's impossible to judge the team this season, because their franchise hopeful has been out all season.

[Snakebites]

Man, you gotta wonder how Cade would be progressing right now if he was, yah know, playing.

He didn't look like he was taking a leap in the first few games but it was only a few games and he probably wasn't 100% at any point during them.

Man, such a shame. I know we probably have slightly better chances at Wemby because of this but anyone who thinks that's preferable to having actual development for the young players already on your team is nuts.

And yeah, I know that nobody is really saying that here- I just hate the narrative from fans of other teams that Cade is sitting to improve the tank.

[theBigLip]

Man, you gotta wonder how Cade would be progressing right now if he was, yah know, playing.

He didn't look like he was taking a leap in the first few games but it was only a few games and he probably wasn't 100% at any point during them.

Man, such a shame. I know we probably have slightly better chances at Wemby because of this but anyone who thinks that's preferable to having actual development for the young players already on your team is nuts.

And yeah, I know that nobody is really saying that here- I just hate the narrative from fans of other teams that Cade is sitting to improve the tank.

I'm happy he's getting a permanent fix done. Don't want Cade to sit once we are a playoff team.

[theBigLip]

Finally updated my model. Nothing surprising. Orlando has the tougher schedule remaining, Charlotte's is easier. Of course all these teams will win a few surprising games, but we should be bottom 4 for sure. It would be hard to overtake Houston - they are tanking extrodinaire.

Team W L
Orlando 20 62
Charlotte 18 64
San Antonio 17 65
Detroit 16 66
Houston 14 68

[Snakebites]

Finally updated my model. Nothing surprising. Orlando has the tougher schedule remaining, Charlotte's is easier. Of course all these teams will win a few surprising games, but we should be bottom 4 for sure. It would be hard to overtake Houston - they are tanking extrodinaire.

Team W L
Orlando 20 62
Charlotte 18 64
San Antonio 17 65
Detroit 16 66
Houston 14 68

Still have my eye on Charlotte though. They are be sellers and trading away some of their pieces will surely have an impact.

Where we're concerned I actually don't see us making any significant deadline moves.

[DBC10]

Finally updated my model. Nothing surprising. Orlando has the tougher schedule remaining, Charlotte's is easier. Of course all these teams will win a few surprising games, but we should be bottom 4 for sure. It would be hard to overtake Houston - they are tanking extrodinaire.

Team W L
Orlando 20 62
Charlotte 18 64
San Antonio 17 65
Detroit 16 66
Houston 14 68

Still have my eye on Charlotte though. They are be sellers and trading away some of their pieces will surely have an impact.

Where we're concerned I actually don't see us making any significant deadline moves.

If we trade Bogdanovic, whatever CHA does to firesale their team won't compare to how awful we'll be without his steady scoring presence. Most of the time why we're not losing even further on nights is due to his scoring prowess keeping us in the game somewhat

Bogey's scoring and spacing is also allowing other guys more creative freedom to move and score too so if we lose that, our scoring output should go way down. We'll give HOU a good run for their money at that point

[Snakebites]

Finally updated my model. Nothing surprising. Orlando has the tougher schedule remaining, Charlotte's is easier. Of course all these teams will win a few surprising games, but we should be bottom 4 for sure. It would be hard to overtake Houston - they are tanking extrodinaire.

Team W L
Orlando 20 62
Charlotte 18 64
San Antonio 17 65
Detroit 16 66
Houston 14 68

Still have my eye on Charlotte though. They are be sellers and trading away some of their pieces will surely have an impact.

Where we're concerned I actually don't see us making any significant deadline moves.

If we trade Bogdanovic, whatever CHA does to firesale their team won't compare to how awful we'll be without his steady scoring presence. Most of the time why we're not losing even further on nights is due to his scoring prowess keeping us in the game somewhat

Bogey's scoring and spacing is also allowing other guys more creative freedom to move and score too so if we lose that, our scoring output should go way down. We'll give HOU a good run for their money at that point

Those are also reasons we may not trade him. He’s actively helping our young guys on the offensive end.

[bstein14]

A good week for the tank because all the below .500 teams teams that maybe could have been sellers at the deadline and pushed for a tank from Feb-April have been winning lately. Minny, LAL, Utah, Portland, Orlando, Toronto, Washington, etc.... Those play-in games really do make it seem like teams are closer to the playoffs and likely prevent sell off moves to join the tank. Washington just a half game out of the play-ins, Toronto 1 game out of the play-ins, Orlando 3.5 games back of the play-ins, OKC & Portland just a half game back from the play-ins.

It continues to look more and more like there is a very separate (a big step down from the pack) group of bottom 4 bottom feeders in this league including Detroit, Houston, San Antonio, and Charlotte this season.

[whitehops]

Finally updated my model. Nothing surprising. Orlando has the tougher schedule remaining, Charlotte's is easier. Of course all these teams will win a few surprising games, but we should be bottom 4 for sure. It would be hard to overtake Houston - they are tanking extrodinaire.

Team W L
Orlando 20 62
Charlotte 18 64
San Antonio 17 65
Detroit 16 66
Houston 14 68

sorry, i'm not sure what your model is but you have the magic going 1-33 the rest of the season?

[theBigLip]

Finally updated my model. Nothing surprising. Orlando has the tougher schedule remaining, Charlotte's is easier. Of course all these teams will win a few surprising games, but we should be bottom 4 for sure. It would be hard to overtake Houston - they are tanking extrodinaire.

Team W L
Orlando 20 62
Charlotte 18 64
San Antonio 17 65
Detroit 16 66
Houston 14 68

sorry, i'm not sure what your model is but you have the magic going 1-33 the rest of the season?

Actually 2-33. So the model is basically a strength of schedule evaluator, and teams are either Bad, Good or Great. Great beats Good, Good beats Bad. And if teams in the same category play each other, home team wins. So as of now, Orlando has been categorized as a "Bad" team. They only have 2 more home games against a "Bad" team (ironically being the Pistons both times). These are the only 2 games where they should be favored. So now, all that being said, Orlando is certainly playing at a higher level than Houston/Detroit/Charlotte/San Antonio. I just bumped them up to a "Good" team which basically takes them out of the tanking model and now they get 36 wins Did the same with OKC.

So down to the last 4 "Bad" teams, San Antonio only has 1 more home game against a Bad team, Houston 2, Charlotte 3 and Pistons 4. Those should be wins for each of the teams. Not sure how to predict these four playing home games against "Good" teams. Will they beat the Wizards/Bulls and the like? A few times for sure, but probably not favored in any of them.

[flow]

Worst part about this rebuild, is up to this point, we haven't found that top end talent. Grizzlies got it in Ja. Pelicans got it in Zion. Mavs got it in Luka. OKC traded for it in SGA. Orlando appears to have landed it in Banchero (verdict still out a bit but he's shown more as a rookie than Cade did). Celtics got it in Tatum, etc... our top 3 pick in Cade I feel is going to be a good player but I still have some real doubts he ever gets to being a top 10-12 player carry a franchise type.

It's hard to get out of the first round in this league without a top talent. Obviously the 04 Pistons did it with 4 starters that were likely in the 15 to 30 range in the league, as well as great depth and great coaching.... but 98% of teams that make it to the conference finals have a top tier talent #1 guy on their team like a Luka, Giannis, Tatum, KD, Curry, Ja, SGA, Zion, Jokic, etc.

SGA wasn't THAT guy until this season, his 5th season, while Cade only played 1 with less talent than SGA has surrounding him now. Cade absolutely showed as much as Banchero did in this rookie season. Luka is different level, from everybody really. Tatum is another guy who didn't REALLY start breaking out until last season and especially this year.

I'm not saying that Cade will hit the heights that Tatum and SGA are hitting this season but it's way too early to cap him out as just a "good player". He absolutely showed some star potential the second half of last season, he has it in him to be a top 10-15 player and he'll have to be if the Pistons ever want Championship aspirations. Cade is the key to everything which is why it's impossible to judge the team this season, because their franchise hopeful has been out all season.

It's not impossible at all. Someone else tried to say this the other day. Cade played 12 games, which were every bit the disaster that the subsequent 37 have been. I'm not railing on Cade, but this team was going to suck as much with him as without him. It's a crap roster with a crap coach.

[bstein14]

Worst part about this rebuild, is up to this point, we haven't found that top end talent. Grizzlies got it in Ja. Pelicans got it in Zion. Mavs got it in Luka. OKC traded for it in SGA. Orlando appears to have landed it in Banchero (verdict still out a bit but he's shown more as a rookie than Cade did). Celtics got it in Tatum, etc... our top 3 pick in Cade I feel is going to be a good player but I still have some real doubts he ever gets to being a top 10-12 player carry a franchise type.

It's hard to get out of the first round in this league without a top talent. Obviously the 04 Pistons did it with 4 starters that were likely in the 15 to 30 range in the league, as well as great depth and great coaching.... but 98% of teams that make it to the conference finals have a top tier talent #1 guy on their team like a Luka, Giannis, Tatum, KD, Curry, Ja, SGA, Zion, Jokic, etc.

SGA wasn't THAT guy until this season, his 5th season, while Cade only played 1 with less talent than SGA has surrounding him now. Cade absolutely showed as much as Banchero did in this rookie season. Luka is different level, from everybody really. Tatum is another guy who didn't REALLY start breaking out until last season and especially this year.

I'm not saying that Cade will hit the heights that Tatum and SGA are hitting this season but it's way too early to cap him out as just a "good player". He absolutely showed some star potential the second half of last season, he has it in him to be a top 10-15 player and he'll have to be if the Pistons ever want Championship aspirations. Cade is the key to everything which is why it's impossible to judge the team this season, because their franchise hopeful has been out all season.

It's not impossible at all. Someone else tried to say this the other day. Cade played 12 games, which were every bit the disaster that the subsequent 37 have been. I'm not railing on Cade, but this team was going to suck as much with him as without him. It's a crap roster with a crap coach.

And can you imagine if Utah didn't just gift us Bojan for literally nothing. Kelly Olynyk and Burks would be our best players this season and we'd have like 6 wins this year.

[theBigLip]

SGA wasn't THAT guy until this season, his 5th season, while Cade only played 1 with less talent than SGA has surrounding him now. Cade absolutely showed as much as Banchero did in this rookie season. Luka is different level, from everybody really. Tatum is another guy who didn't REALLY start breaking out until last season and especially this year.

I'm not saying that Cade will hit the heights that Tatum and SGA are hitting this season but it's way too early to cap him out as just a "good player". He absolutely showed some star potential the second half of last season, he has it in him to be a top 10-15 player and he'll have to be if the Pistons ever want Championship aspirations. Cade is the key to everything which is why it's impossible to judge the team this season, because their franchise hopeful has been out all season.

It's not impossible at all. Someone else tried to say this the other day. Cade played 12 games, which were every bit the disaster that the subsequent 37 have been. I'm not railing on Cade, but this team was going to suck as much with him as without him. It's a crap roster with a crap coach.

And can you imagine if Utah didn't just gift us Bojan for literally nothing. Kelly Olynyk and Burks would be our best players this season and we'd have like 6 wins this year.

Truth. And Olynyk would be putting up 25 a game sine no one else can score. And he would be in all the trade rumors

[NYPiston]

It's not impossible at all. Someone else tried to say this the other day. Cade played 12 games, which were every bit the disaster that the subsequent 37 have been. I'm not railing on Cade, but this team was going to suck as much with him as without him. It's a crap roster with a crap coach.

Cade clearly wasn't himself in those games, I even said as much in the GDTs at the time that there must be something wrong with him because he just seemed off. The numbers were ok but the eye test told a different story, he just seemed hampered.

Regardless, when a young team is missing their franchise player, it's going to effect the team in a big way. Their best player right now is.... Bogdanovic? Just to put that in perspective so, yes, this season is an impossible evlauation in terms of team success because they've been missing their best player and the drop off in talent is significant after him. Their most talented guys after Cade are rookies and they're playing like....rookies.

I'm not saying that they would have had an OKC/Cleveland last year type of jump with a healthy, developing and assumably better Cade in Year 2 but I don't think they would have been far off from Orlando in the standings and on pace for roughly 30-32 wins or so. I'd say that they would have been good for 4-5 more wins minimum right now if Cade progressed into what he could be.

[theBigLip]

As of this morning, we are in first place for the tank!!!

[reanimator]

I don't think there is any way you can arrive at rookie year Cade being as good as Banchero.

[MotownMadness]

As of this morning, we are in first place for the tank!!!

[MotownMadness]

It's not impossible at all. Someone else tried to say this the other day. Cade played 12 games, which were every bit the disaster that the subsequent 37 have been. I'm not railing on Cade, but this team was going to suck as much with him as without him. It's a crap roster with a crap coach.

Cade clearly wasn't himself in those games, I even said as much in the GDTs at the time that there must be something wrong with him because he just seemed off. The numbers were ok but the eye test told a different story, he just seemed hampered.

Regardless, when a young team is missing their franchise player, it's going to effect the team in a big way. Their best player right now is.... Bogdanovic? Just to put that in perspective so, yes, this season is an impossible evlauation in terms of team success because they've been missing their best player and the drop off in talent is significant after him. Their most talented guys after Cade are rookies and they're playing like....rookies.

I'm not saying that they would have had an OKC/Cleveland last year type of jump with a healthy, developing and assumably better Cade in Year 2 but I don't think they would have been far off from Orlando in the standings and on pace for roughly 30-32 wins or so. I'd say that they would have been good for 4-5 more wins minimum right now if Cade progressed into what he could be.

Cade would of helped. We're dead last in the clutch by a good margin and Cade was good in that department.

[bstein14]

I don't think there is any way you can arrive at rookie year Cade being as good as Banchero.

I agree completely... you can still like Cade's upside more and put a higher value on his ceiling due to his playmaking and creating for others, BUT Banchero was a better player on day one for sure. Of course Cade has the built in excuse that he came into camp injured last year and missed the preseason.

That said, if you look at post all-star break rookie Cade he was really good. He had a very good March and the team played well in March and April. He was looking like he was going to be our young franchise cornerstone over that last stretch of the season (before he got hurt once again near the end of the year).

I still think there's a decent chance that Cade ends up a better player than Banchero, but I can understand why most people feel like Banchero is the better prospect at this point. Let's just hope that we get a good healthy 3rd year from Cade and we get to actually see that growth and development from him from where he came into the league.