http://www.nba.com/pistons/news/truebluepistons.htmlMissing the playoffs no option for Pistons
The Lions have the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, in case you haven’t heard. But if you haven’t heard, you’re not reading this. If you haven’t heard, you’re not conscious. Because since before the NFL season ended, when it was apparent the Lions would nail down the No. 1 pick with the worst record in the NFL whether they completed their 0-16 quest or not, the buzz generated by getting the No. 1 pick has been overwhelming. As I write this sentence, six of the top eight “most commented” stories on MLive.com’s site are Lions-related. That’s not unusual. A few weeks ago, it was eight for eight. For all the suffering they endured last fall, owning the No. 1 pick is an amazing windfall of free publicity for the Lions. Short of having made the playoffs last season, going 0-16 was a pretty good thing for the Lions. So now that the Pistons have hit another rough patch, losing six of eight games since Rasheed Wallace limped off with a strained calf muscle, and their playoff fate gets pushed to iffy, I suspect a significant portion of Pistons Nation is warming to the notion of missing the playoffs altogether because of the tantalizing prospect of winning the lottery. Well, forget that. As it stands today, the Pistons are four times more likely to win the NBA title than to win the lottery. That’s not me. That’s coming from ESPN.com’s John Hollinger and his playoff projections, a math-based computer program that pegs the Pistons shot at winning it all at 4 in 1,000 and their chances at winning the lottery at 1 in 1,000.
The history of the NBA draft lottery is rife with examples of teams with the worst record falling to second, third or even fourth in the pecking order. But it’s not loaded with examples of teams at the back end of the lottery moving up, certainly not since they’ve tweaked the weighting. The Bulls won the lottery last year as a long shot, but not that much of one. Only eight teams had worse records than the Bulls. If the Pistons fail to make the playoffs, it’s likely they’ll have the second-best record among non-playoff teams – the West’s No. 9 seed will have the best. The Bulls had a 1.7 chance of winning – which is 17 times better than a 0.1 percent chance. Beyond that, it’s just not a draft where you’d clamor to move up to No. 2 or 3. Blake Griffin, the slam-dunk No. 1 pick, looks like a future All-Star. Beyond that, it’s anybody’s guess. There are a lot of intriguing prospects, but drafting 14th – where the Pistons would almost surely wind up if they miss the playoffs – or drafting, say, 17th, isn’t going to make much of a difference in this draft. If the Pistons don’t get healthy soon, they’re in some peril of being forced to attend lottery proceedings for the first time in eight years. Holding off Chicago for the No. 7 seed is going to be tough, given their schedules. The Pistons have 12 games left but only five at home. The Bulls have 10 games left, seven at home. The Pistons still have to play the Lakers and Cavs. Miami is the team with the best record left on Chicago’s schedule. Getting healthy soon doesn’t look quite as likely as it did a few days ago. Michael Curry nixed practice today, which is a strong indication that none of the walking wounded – Allen Iverson (out 14 games with a bad back), Wallace (eight, calf) and Rip Hamilton (five, groin) – will play Thursday.
They’d practice if it meant helping someone close to returning get their timing back and break a sweat. But if Iverson, Wallace or Hamilton can’t get on the floor, then prudence calls for those left behind to get off their feet. Listen to what Antonio McDyess told reporters after Tuesday’s loss at Chicago: “My body feels good, but tonight I just felt a step slow. I just wonder if playing all these minutes is going to catch up to me later. It could hit me all of a sudden, you know? I hope it (doesn’t), but I am afraid it might.”That’s a seed the Pistons don’t want to sow. Just as Wallace’s play lagged in December for the strain put on him as McDyess sat out the mandated 30 days before rejoining the Pistons following his buyout from Denver, the danger is that even when Wallace returns the Pistons won’t get the bounce they need because McDyess will wither from overuse. So as desperately as the competitor in Curry probably wants to run a three-hour practice to clean up the dustballs in the corners of the Pistons’ game, the voice of reason within him wins out. He’s monitoring two races along parallel paths – one that runs through Arnie Kander’s physical therapy room, the other through the Eastern Conference standings. He has to hope Kander’s magic potions do their thing with enough time left over for Curry to pull the Pistons back on the road and re-enter that other chase. It would leave them all feeling empty if this crossroads season ended without the Pistons getting a chance at the salvation the playoffs offer. All they really want now is to get to April 16, the morning after the season finale, with a full roster and a record better than seven other teams in the Eastern Conference. If that means the No. 8 seed and a first-round matchup with Cleveland, so be it. The lottery offers them no solace.