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[bstein14]

So this is clearly baiting the Ayton debate again. Some things never change.

Brook lopez was making 14 million a year at the same time Ayton was making 31 million while providing better floor spacing.

If Duren develops an outside shot or becomes even more impactful on defense then he warrants more consideration than Ayton at having a bigger contract. Ayton just gets lost at times / loses his motor. You can't waste max dollars on a guy like that.

After all the rumors of Phoenix unsuccessfully trying to rid themselves of Ayton recently I'm trying to figure out what stage of grief BStein is in right now regarding his prior max contract arguments for him. Is it depression or just denial masquerading as such?

You can't just dunk the ball and get rebounds and a screen setter and be a max player big man. If you're an elite DPOY caliber rim protecter as well sure then you can push a higher amount and still be ok. If you've got the ability to step outside and make shots on the perimeter sure you can be ok going with a higher salary. If you've got the ability to make great passes and create for teammates and have some offense run through you, sure you can go higher. You can't just be an energy, dunking and rebounding big and be a max player franchise type though I think we've seen the league has evolved and stepped away from that.

I agree for Ayton a lot of his issues seem to be his motor/motivation/energy/etc.

The 21-22 season Ayton hit 37% from deep and part of my willingness to say sure I'll throw him a max deal, but I wouldn't give up assets in a trade for him with thinking he was going to be able to build on that. I'm still not sure he is happy in Phoenix even with a coaching change and ownership change perhaps if he gets traded to the right team and situation we'll see the best out of him or perhaps we never will.

That said, I'd still rather have Ayton at $30 million than Wiseman/Bagley/Hayes at $30 million this season. At least Ayton is a slightly above average starter even with all his shortcomings.

This season sure.

But Hayes/Wiseman/Bagley don't carry long term commitments, and smaller contracts are easier to deal with than longer ones.

There's a reason the Suns are so interested in moving him, and a reason that he hasn't been moved despite that interest. Guy isn't that good.

He's an above average starting center in this league. I don't think that's debatable at all... and he's still young (24) and in theory should continue to get better. That said, he needs others to create for him. I think he's likely not quite as good as Cam Johnson is as far as impact on winning and losing. Ayton at 4 years $100 million would probably be a very tradable contract and about the right value for him. Same for Cam... if you push to $120 or $130 million over 4 years that deal becomes worse for both Ayton and Cam.

And of course a guy who's a 3rd best player on a good team isn't usually going to be a great value on the trade market with a max deal... you usually want to be an all-star or a 2nd best player on a team for max money.

[Invictus88]

and he's still young (24) and in theory should continue to get better.

Denial it is. Thanks for playing.

This is a link to the yearly statistics of Deandre Ayton for every year he has been in the league.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01.html#all_per_game-playoffs_per_game

Please point out any aspect that Ayton has improved upon in a meaningful way from one year to the next. Anything.

I can't find a better example of a player more resistant to changes in production than Deandre Ayton.

P.S. You cited earlier that he hit 37% from deep on .3 attempts per game. That's roughly 25 total attempts across the season. And that's one of the reasons you felt he should get a max contract?

[bstein14]

and he's still young (24) and in theory should continue to get better.

Denial it is. Thanks for playing.

This is a link to the yearly statistics of Deandre Ayton for every year he has been in the league.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01.html#all_per_game-playoffs_per_game

Please point out any aspect that Ayton has improved upon in a meaningful way from one year to the next. Anything.

I can't find a better example of a player more resistant to changes in production than Deandre Ayton.

I mean 90+% of NBA players are better at age 26 than they were at age 22. You're still learning and getting better in most cases in your younger 20s and don't usually hit your best "prime" years until your mid 20s.

[Invictus88]

and he's still young (24) and in theory should continue to get better.

Denial it is. Thanks for playing.

This is a link to the yearly statistics of Deandre Ayton for every year he has been in the league.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01.html#all_per_game-playoffs_per_game

Please point out any aspect that Ayton has improved upon in a meaningful way from one year to the next. Anything.

I can't find a better example of a player more resistant to changes in production than Deandre Ayton.

I mean 90+% of NBA players are better at age 26 than they were at age 22. You're still learning and getting better in most cases in your younger 20s and don't usually hit your best "prime" years until your mid 20s.

So at this point you are completely glossing over / ignoring the things I am typing and just saying things without any type of factual evidence to back them up.

Deandre Ayton has not improved in any meaningful way in any statistical category that measures output in the FIVE years that he has been in the league.

I don't know how to state this any clearer.

I fully expect for you to once again completely ignore this point and state that we should expect improvements from him because He's still in his mid-20s.

Does anyone else besides me see how ridiculous this is?

[DBC10]

Bigs have been getting signed for cheapish deals for a while. Time Lord, Myles Turner, now Vuc

The only dude who got paid huge who didn't deserve it was Ayton

Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM Forums mobile app

Yep, they've been mercenaries to shore up the frontcourt for playoff teams for a while now. Any team shelling out gaudy deals to bigs tend to regret it than not, most of the time. As we've seen with our own Drummond situation in the past

It's just way more cost efficient to spend the bulk of your cap on guards & wings first and build out from there

Which is what we've been doing circa Weaver's tenure, which is great

[Snakebites]

and he's still young (24) and in theory should continue to get better.

Denial it is. Thanks for playing.

This is a link to the yearly statistics of Deandre Ayton for every year he has been in the league.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01.html#all_per_game-playoffs_per_game

Please point out any aspect that Ayton has improved upon in a meaningful way from one year to the next. Anything.

I can't find a better example of a player more resistant to changes in production than Deandre Ayton.

I mean 90+% of NBA players are better at age 26 than they were at age 22. You're still learning and getting better in most cases in your younger 20s and don't usually hit your best "prime" years until your mid 20s.

I'd say virtually all of those same players (if I'm accepting your number- which I really don't) were also better at 24 than they were at 22.

Ayton's game hasn't moved.

And yes, it's totally fair to point out that big men for the most part aren't getting premium dollars these days unless they're transcendent talents.

[bstein14]

Denial it is. Thanks for playing.

This is a link to the yearly statistics of Deandre Ayton for every year he has been in the league.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01.html#all_per_game-playoffs_per_game

Please point out any aspect that Ayton has improved upon in a meaningful way from one year to the next. Anything.

I can't find a better example of a player more resistant to changes in production than Deandre Ayton.

I mean 90+% of NBA players are better at age 26 than they were at age 22. You're still learning and getting better in most cases in your younger 20s and don't usually hit your best "prime" years until your mid 20s.

I'd say virtually all of those same players (if I'm accepting your number- which I really don't) were also better at 24 than they were at 22.

Ayton's game hasn't moved.

And yes, it's totally fair to point out that big men for the most part aren't getting premium dollars these days unless they're transcendent talents.

So you're saying Ayton will just stay the same from his rookie year to his 10th year in the league and never improve at anything? Seems pretty unlikely.

[Invictus88]

I mean 90+% of NBA players are better at age 26 than they were at age 22. You're still learning and getting better in most cases in your younger 20s and don't usually hit your best "prime" years until your mid 20s.

I'd say virtually all of those same players (if I'm accepting your number- which I really don't) were also better at 24 than they were at 22.

Ayton's game hasn't moved.

And yes, it's totally fair to point out that big men for the most part aren't getting premium dollars these days unless they're transcendent talents.

So you're saying Ayton will just stay the same from his rookie year to his 10th year in the league and never improve at anything? Seems pretty unlikely.

You have FIVE YEARS OF DATA staring you in the face. Right Now.

What is more plausible at this point? That he continues in his current trajectory established from 5 years being in the league or magically changing course now?

P.S.
I somehow lost another reply to you saying one reason you'd give him the max was because he shot 37% from 3 in 2021-22. You do realize that was .3 attempts per game right? Across 58 games. That is 19 attempts..

Please please please never put yourself in a position where you have to interpret data when making a significant financial decision.

[Snakebites]

I mean 90+% of NBA players are better at age 26 than they were at age 22. You're still learning and getting better in most cases in your younger 20s and don't usually hit your best "prime" years until your mid 20s.

I'd say virtually all of those same players (if I'm accepting your number- which I really don't) were also better at 24 than they were at 22.

Ayton's game hasn't moved.

And yes, it's totally fair to point out that big men for the most part aren't getting premium dollars these days unless they're transcendent talents.

So you're saying Ayton will just stay the same from his rookie year to his 10th year in the league and never improve at anything? Seems pretty unlikely.

That's nothing like what I was saying, though it is fair to point out that ALL of his seasons so far, in terms of stats, are pretty darn similar.

He hasn't markedly improved since he was 22- his third season in the league. At what point did I make any allusion to his rookie season?

He isn't trending upward as a player- he hasn't been for a few years now. Why would I or anyone else expect him to now?

[bstein14]

If you look at Ayton's fourth year(21-22) stats versus his rookie season...

FG% 63.4% compared to 58.5% as a rookie
3pt% 36.8% compared to 0% as a rookie (yes on just .3 attempts per game)
His offensive rating was better. His defensive rating was better.
WS were better, VorP better... overall four years in the league he was a better player than as a rookie even if it wasn't a large jump.

That said, maybe Ayton's fourth year will be the best year he ever had in the league... Maybe he is one of those guys that wanted to get paid and now he's set for life he won't put the work in to get better. That's entirely possible. Maybe he would have had a better season in Indy than he did in Phoenix last year because he was clearly upset he had to go out and get an offer from another team and that Phoenix didn't just want to pay him.

I honestly don't know how the rest of his career will turn out.... but for me personally part of the reason I was willing to give him the max last summer, obviously before we traded for Duren, was the fact that I personally expected him to be better at 24/25/26 than he was in his fourth season. Perhaps I will be wrong on that. We'll never know what he would have provided us and obviously Weaver ended up getting better use out of that cap space getting Duren, who I think has a very high upside.

[Invictus88]

If you look at Ayton's fourth year(21-22) stats versus his rookie season...

FG% 63.4% compared to 58.5% as a rookie
3pt% 36.8% compared to 0% as a rookie (yes on just .3 attempts per game)
His offensive rating was better. His defensive rating was better.
WS were better, VorP better... overall four years in the league he was a better player than as a rookie even if it wasn't a large jump.

That said, maybe Ayton's fourth year will be the best year he ever had in the league... Maybe he is one of those guys that wanted to get paid and now he's set for life he won't put the work in to get better. That's entirely possible. Maybe he would have had a better season in Indy than he did in Phoenix last year because he was clearly upset he had to go out and get an offer from another team and that Phoenix didn't just want to pay him.

I honestly don't know how the rest of his career will turn out.... but for me personally part of the reason I was willing to give him the max last summer, obviously before we traded for Duren, was the fact that I personally expected him to be better at 24/25/26 than he was in his fourth season. Perhaps I will be wrong on that. We'll never know what he would have provided us and obviously Weaver ended up getting better use out of that cap space getting Duren, who I think has a very high upside.

So wait. Now you are just completely ignoring the last year and are cherry-picking stats from the 2021-22 season?

What factored into the decision to completely ignore his .292 three point percentage from 2022-23? (career average of .263)
Or what about his 58.9 FG% from 2022-23? (career average of .597)

It's also super fun that you compare to his rookie season of 3 point shooting, where he took a whopping FOUR attempts.

His offensive rating in his latest season was 119. 1 shy of his career average of 120. 2 better than his rookie year.
His defensive rating in his latest season was 111. 2 worse than his career average of 109. 2 better than his rookie year.

It should be obvious to everyone else here that you're being purposefully misleading. It's not even debatable at this point.

[bstein14]

If you look at Ayton's fourth year(21-22) stats versus his rookie season...

FG% 63.4% compared to 58.5% as a rookie
3pt% 36.8% compared to 0% as a rookie (yes on just .3 attempts per game)
His offensive rating was better. His defensive rating was better.
WS were better, VorP better... overall four years in the league he was a better player than as a rookie even if it wasn't a large jump.

That said, maybe Ayton's fourth year will be the best year he ever had in the league... Maybe he is one of those guys that wanted to get paid and now he's set for life he won't put the work in to get better. That's entirely possible. Maybe he would have had a better season in Indy than he did in Phoenix last year because he was clearly upset he had to go out and get an offer from another team and that Phoenix didn't just want to pay him.

I honestly don't know how the rest of his career will turn out.... but for me personally part of the reason I was willing to give him the max last summer, obviously before we traded for Duren, was the fact that I personally expected him to be better at 24/25/26 than he was in his fourth season. Perhaps I will be wrong on that. We'll never know what he would have provided us and obviously Weaver ended up getting better use out of that cap space getting Duren, who I think has a very high upside.

So wait. Now you are just completely ignoring the last year and are cherry-picking stats from the 2021-22 season?

What factored into the decision to completely ignore his .292 three point percentage from 2022-23? (career average of .263)
Or what about his 58.9 FG% from 2022-23? (career average of .597)

It's also super fun that you compare to his rookie season of 3 point shooting, where he took a whopping FOUR attempts.

His offensive rating in his latest season was 119. 1 shy of his career average of 120. 2 better than his rookie year.
His defensive rating in his latest season was 111. 2 worse than his career average of 109. 2 better than his rookie year.

It should be obvious to everyone else here that you're being purposefully misleading. It's not even debatable at this point.

His 5th year was down from his fourth year, but we were talking about signing him last summer. His 5th year stats hadn't happened yet. If we had a crystal ball last summer and I knew his stats would be down across the board in year five, his first year in Detroit... I wouldn't want Detroit to sign him.

If you told me that Cam Johnson's best year was his fourth year, I wouldn't want to sign him. With any young player Weaver signs, its almost a given that Weaver is thinking/hoping that they will put the work in and get better. I'm not trying to mislead anyone just saying that there were obvious improvements from his rookie year to his fourth season, which is when we were discussing possibly signing him.

[Invictus88]

If you look at Ayton's fourth year(21-22) stats versus his rookie season...

FG% 63.4% compared to 58.5% as a rookie
3pt% 36.8% compared to 0% as a rookie (yes on just .3 attempts per game)
His offensive rating was better. His defensive rating was better.
WS were better, VorP better... overall four years in the league he was a better player than as a rookie even if it wasn't a large jump.

That said, maybe Ayton's fourth year will be the best year he ever had in the league... Maybe he is one of those guys that wanted to get paid and now he's set for life he won't put the work in to get better. That's entirely possible. Maybe he would have had a better season in Indy than he did in Phoenix last year because he was clearly upset he had to go out and get an offer from another team and that Phoenix didn't just want to pay him.

I honestly don't know how the rest of his career will turn out.... but for me personally part of the reason I was willing to give him the max last summer, obviously before we traded for Duren, was the fact that I personally expected him to be better at 24/25/26 than he was in his fourth season. Perhaps I will be wrong on that. We'll never know what he would have provided us and obviously Weaver ended up getting better use out of that cap space getting Duren, who I think has a very high upside.

So wait. Now you are just completely ignoring the last year and are cherry-picking stats from the 2021-22 season?

What factored into the decision to completely ignore his .292 three point percentage from 2022-23? (career average of .263)
Or what about his 58.9 FG% from 2022-23? (career average of .597)

It's also super fun that you compare to his rookie season of 3 point shooting, where he took a whopping FOUR attempts.

His offensive rating in his latest season was 119. 1 shy of his career average of 120. 2 better than his rookie year.
His defensive rating in his latest season was 111. 2 worse than his career average of 109. 2 better than his rookie year.

It should be obvious to everyone else here that you're being purposefully misleading. It's not even debatable at this point.

His 5th year was down from his fourth year, but we were talking about signing him last summer. His 5th year stats hadn't happened yet. If we had a crystal ball last summer and I knew his stats would be down across the board in year five, his first year in Detroit... I wouldn't want Detroit to sign him.

If you told me that Cam Johnson's best year was his fourth year, I wouldn't want to sign him. With any young player Weaver signs, its almost a given that Weaver is thinking/hoping that they will put the work in and get better. I'm not trying to mislead anyone just saying that there were obvious improvements from his rookie year to his fourth season, which is when we were discussing possibly signing him.

I'm done.

[zeebneeb]

I just read that the Lakers are looking at Cojo.



Hope they like watching dribbling until the shot-clock has 8 seconds left on it about 8 times a night.

[bstein14]

I just read that the Lakers are looking at Cojo.



Hope they like watching dribbling until the shot-clock has 8 seconds left on it about 8 times a night.

Not a surprise at all because he's a Kluth client. CoJo not good enough to be a part of a regular rotation but at a vet min deal he'll be insurance 13th or 14th man in case of an injury.

[bstein14]

Harden opting in and trying to force a trade to one of a few select teams is certainly a plot twist.

I'd bet he ends up in New York, LA, Miami, or Phoenix.

[MortSahlfan]

It's too bad NBA TV (and neither ESPN channels) are showing this recent development. I need something until tomorrow, where there will be hours and hours of NBA Today (ESPN) tomorrow and Saturday

[keepitrealhomes]

Man, Cojo catches more stray bullets than anyone on this team. He’s a steady backup PG, and exactly what you’d want as your 3rd PG as a contender.

[Invictus88]

Man, Cojo catches more stray bullets than anyone on this team. He’s a steady backup PG, and exactly what you’d want as your 3rd PG as a contender.

Given that the 3rd pg is never supposed to be on the court getting meaningful minutes a lot of players would satisfy a team's needs.

The problem with CJ on the Pistons was that he wasn't playing 3rd pg minutes.

[Piston Pete]

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