PF targets

[Crymson]

So we can agree he hasn’t lived up to the #3 pick, which might make him be more obtainable. He just turned 22 so clearly has room to grow. If we think Ausar and Holland can improve their offensive game, JSJ at 22 seems to still have some potential.

When a player comes into the league with a bad handle, bad passing, and no ability to create offense and still has those issues in spades after three seasons, he's exceptionally unlikely to improve upon them. It's not impossible, of course, but I can't think of any examples of that happening. It's fully plausible that his shooting could improve, as he was a genuinely elite perimeter shooter in a variety of ways in the NCAA. Then again, there have been plenty of elite NCAA shooters who failed to transfer that skill to production at the NBA level.

What do you think Houston would need for a trade? And another big question is what kind of extension do you think he’ll expect when that comes up?

I think the Rockets have much more to potentially gain from waiting and seeing if he can get it together next season than from selling cheap. And I think it would be unwise for the Pistons to trade significant assets for a player whose upside is seeming increasingly like a shot in the dark.

I'd be shocked if he's extended unless it's at an exceptionally affordable rate. After three seasons, he's still proven nothing at the NBA level.

[Mr Peanut]

The upside could be massive if everything worked out. I think they would want way too much for him though.

He could demand he wants out and will only play for the Pistons. Teams are going to trade for a guy that doesn't want to be there. I think he has a lot of leverage
A healthy Zion and healthy Piston team win the Chip next year.

Lots of what-ifs here, but if Trajan does this we have to trust his judgement. He knows what he’s getting into.

Players like Zion don’t fall into your lap like this. Lots of people are gonna complain but then shut up real quick as soon as they see that first Cade to Zion alley-oop combo.

He is worth the risk, and our situation and JB is exactly what he needs…we don’t need draft picks if we are in win-now mode, so for the exact trade you laid out, you do it in a heartbeat.

(…Aaaaaaand here come the haters to remind us he is fat and has an injury history)

Calling him fat is a hater move. But bringing up his injury history is reasonably pertinent. He's averaged 36 games per season in his six year career thus far.

For reference, Jalen Duren (who has had his own injury issues) was drafted three years after Zion and has only played 8 less career games.

[ducler]

A Zion/Cade duo is intriguing but you'd need to put shooters around them. Duren and Ausar plus Zion in the same lineup would not space the floor enough.

[the_l_train]

(…Aaaaaaand here come the haters to remind us he is fat and has an injury history)

Today I learned that pointing out the downsides of acquiring one of the least healthy, most injury-prone players in the league, one who has missed more games than he's played in the NBA, makes one a "hater."

The one and only reason Zion is even available on the trade market is his chronic injuries, which have made him an overall dud and a huge disappointment in New Orleans. It's the same reason he's likely to provide poor value to anyone else: his health is extremely unlikely to get better at this point, and it might even get worse. And anyone who forgets about Zion's injury history at the first alley-oop will certainly remember it when he inevitably ends up out of the lineup for an extended stretch. And then when it happens again. And again.

When a player is off the court with injury, he isn't merely providing zero value -- he's also levying the opportunity cost of the team not having spent the salary and assets used on him instead on somebody who's regularly able to play.

No offense, but it's like you folks are focusing only on Zion's talent while completely ignoring the reason he's on the trade block to begin with. Trading assets for him would be like splurging on a highly breakdown-prone Ferrari that's exceedingly likely to spend most of its time in the shop getting repaired because of its constant breakdowns, then getting surprised when it keeps breaking down. Except worse, in fact, because auto purchases don't have a CBA and players don't have components you can replace.

Thanks for the eloquent response.

In this case we are talking about giving up Tobias Harris and 2 (likely) late round draft picks…our window is right now, and we cant squander it in hopes that we hit on a draft pick in 2029.

We aren't talking about giving up Ausar, not Duren, not Ivey…yes it is still a risk, but you have to spend money to make money. In this case, the return on investment is worth it.

[Cowology]

...

I think the Rockets have much more to potentially gain from waiting and seeing if he can get it together next season than from selling cheap. And I think it would be unwise for the Pistons to trade significant assets for a player whose upside is seeming increasingly like a shot in the dark.

This is where I stand on most underperforming players on rookie contracts. It very rarely makes sense to sell low. At that point your usually best off being patient and *hoping* they develop. The only other option that feels semi-viable is trading them for somebody elses' underperforming asset in the hopes that both players benefit from a change of scenery. If we aren't giving up one of our recent top 5 picks in the exchange, then it's sorta a non-starter. Or maybe they are a lesser part of a bigger package.

I'd rather try and outbid a player hitting RFA who overperformed their rookie contract. Late 1st rounders & 2nd rounders who have earned bigger contracts vs. the high pick who underperformed.

But again, this just in a vacuum. I'm not super knowledgeable about JSJ beyond what I learned for the draft.

[Cowology]

And NO on Zion. I'll "hate" on his broken down ass all day. No apologies.

[Crymson]

Thanks for the eloquent response.

In this case we are talking about giving up Tobias Harris and 2 (likely) late round draft picks…our window is right now, and we cant squander it in hopes that we hit on a draft pick in 2029.

We aren't talking about giving up Ausar, not Duren, not Ivey…yes it is still a risk, but you have to spend money to make money. In this case, the return on investment is worth it.

What do you mean that the window is right now? This is a young roster that has plenty of room to grow.

Anyway, I feel like your logic implies that it's this trade or nothing. That isn't the case, and it would come with the massive opportunity cost of being unable to use that draft stock in another trade instead.

[Invictus88]

Thanks for the eloquent response.

In this case we are talking about giving up Tobias Harris and 2 (likely) late round draft picks…our window is right now, and we cant squander it in hopes that we hit on a draft pick in 2029.

We aren't talking about giving up Ausar, not Duren, not Ivey…yes it is still a risk, but you have to spend money to make money. In this case, the return on investment is worth it.

What do you mean that the window is right now? This is a young roster that has plenty of room to grow.

Anyway, I feel like your logic implies that it's this trade or nothing. That isn't the case, and it would come with the massive opportunity cost of being unable to use that draft stock in another trade instead.

Not to mention the opportunity cost of using the same money on players who could play a majority of games instead of being riddled with injury... like maybe extending our young guys?

[Crymson]

Not to mention the opportunity cost of using the same money on players who could play a majority of games instead of being riddled with injury... like maybe extending our young guys?

They'd be able to re-sign them either way (the team holds their full Bird rights), though salaries might get high for at least a season in that scenario... which brings up another snag in this trade idea: Zion has only two seasons left on his contract, so even the best-case scenario of him staying reasonably healthy would see them need to re-sign him even though future injuries would be virtually guaranteed. The worst-case scenario, of course -- and this would be far likelier -- would be having shoveled away two first-round picks for two seasons of a broken-down player.

[Invictus88]

Not to mention the opportunity cost of using the same money on players who could play a majority of games instead of being riddled with injury... like maybe extending our young guys?

They'd be able to re-sign them either way (the team holds their full Bird rights), though salaries might get high for a season in that scenario... which brings up another snag in this trade idea: Zion has only two seasons left on his contract, so even the best-case scenario of him staying reasonably healthy would see them need to re-sign him even though future injuries would be virtually guaranteed. The worst-case scenario, of course -- and this would be far likelier -- would be having shoveled away two first-round picks for two seasons of a broken-down player.

Everything you say is true. But in aggregate if we were to acquire a large piece like Zion then I think it would be less likely we would retain everyone we would have otherwise. It's possible we exceed spending limits to do so but there are a lot of reasons (defined penalties/limits and taxes and possibly a reluctance to spend) that may make management choose otherwise.

It's indirect causality but a possible opportunity cost nonetheless.

[the_l_train]

Thanks for the eloquent response.

In this case we are talking about giving up Tobias Harris and 2 (likely) late round draft picks…our window is right now, and we cant squander it in hopes that we hit on a draft pick in 2029.

We aren't talking about giving up Ausar, not Duren, not Ivey…yes it is still a risk, but you have to spend money to make money. In this case, the return on investment is worth it.

What do you mean that the window is right now? This is a young roster that has plenty of room to grow.

Anyway, I feel like your logic implies that it's this trade or nothing. That isn't the case, and it would come with the massive opportunity cost of being unable to use that draft stock in another trade instead.

And your logic is implying we would bring in Zion and do nothing else. The proposed deal was for Tobias and future picks. Late round picks (and even early picks) are such a crapshoot, we cannot afford to cross our fingers and hope we draft a guy who can make an immediate impact. We not only need to stay competitive, but ensure that we are keeping our star player happy in the process.

We have our first round pick for the next 6 years or something like that, so giving up 2 of them does not completely empty our cupboard of assets.
Yes, our window is now. If we don't act fast, we can easily become the next Phoenix, Atlanta or Orlando (teams that thought they were on the cusp and took a huge step back).

The East is looking incredibly weak at the moment, and we need to pounce on something like this if it falls into our lap. If we make a Zion deal, I figure Trajan would have another deal or two up our sleeve.

Again, I am only pointing to the scenario Rip32 laid out, and in this case we would be stupid not to roll the dice. Or we could pussyfoot around like most of the other proposed deals on this board and go after a middling playing like Lauri Markannen and pray that he is a difference maker.

[Kalamazoo317]

Once you factor in continuity, spacing, leadership/team chemistry, availability, opportunity cost, and defense, Tobias does more to help us maximize a "win now" window than Zion. The ceiling is probably higher with Zion, but the average outcome and floor are both way lower.
I think if Zion is part of a "win now" move, the next step has to be to trade Duren for spacing, and possibly Ausar as well (not sure you can "win now" with Zion + Ausar on offense).

[the_l_train]

Once you factor in continuity, spacing, leadership/team chemistry, availability, opportunity cost, and defense, Tobias does more to help us maximize a "win now" window than Zion. The ceiling is probably higher with Zion, but the average outcome and floor are both way lower.
I think if Zion is part of a "win now" move, the next step has to be to trade Duren for spacing, and possibly Ausar as well (not sure you can "win now" with Zion + Ausar on offense).

Hard disagree on the first part there, but I hear you on the trading Duren as the next step.

In this scenario, if Tobias is dealt we would need to shore up our backup forward spot. One reason why a Yabusule signing is still intriguing since he can play Center as well.

If Duren is dealt next, I would hope it would be a for a shooter (or an intriguing big man who is a better defender). This way we can keep Ausar and hopefully have him surrounded by 4 guys who can hit the 3 if needed.

Beef Stew would step back into the starting center role, and hope we can make another deal to bring in a rim-running center (basically a poor mans Duren)....if Paul Reed is the stop-gap as our 4th big, then so be it.

[Rip32]

A Zion/Cade duo is intriguing but you'd need to put shooters around them. Duren and Ausar plus Zion in the same lineup would not space the floor enough.

I think the more shot creators you have, the tougher it is for teams to defend you imo. Most shooters are a liability on defense.

Cade, Ivey and Zion can all get to the basket. I'd rather have this than limited shooters

[Cowology]

I have previously described Zion as "a shortcut through a dark alley."

He gets you where you want to be in terms of talent. You can figure out the shooting/spacing around Cade/Zion and make it work.

But the health risk is *high* and despite what some people think we don't need to take on that kind of risk. It may be a little slower, but there are much safer paths that lead to the same destination.

I'm not opposed to making a move or consolidating talent. I'm opposed to this specific player because he's an exceptionally volatile asset. Even as a straight salary dump with no additional assets attached in not sure I'd do it. And the problem is the cheaper the price becomes the more worried you should be. That's a conundrum in itself.

[MotownMadness]

He does have some nice stats though when he does play

[Invictus88]

I have previously described Zion as "a shortcut through a dark alley."

I think that analogy greatly understates the risk involved. It sort of implies (to me at least) that you will make it through a good percentage of the time unscathed and possibly better off for it in terms of time spent.

There really haven't been instances where Zion's team has been better off having him in totality (including time and money spent on his contract) -- which is the entire venture through the dark alley.

I would more likely describe Zion as a planned ascent of K2. Most teams will fail in their attempts. There is a very reasonable chance that at least some of those associated will not make it through the journey to the end. However, IF you are very fortunate and circumstances like weather and luck are on your side then you can experience a Euphoria of summitting. But even then after returning from the journey you may find yourself alone/with nothing as you have alienated your loved ones spending all of your time/resources on the ascent.

Yep. I think that's right.

[the_l_train]

Zion as our main guy. probably not the best fit given his warts. But him with Cade is a different story.

He has had the misfortune of being stuck in literal NBA hell (New Orleans might be the most pathetic franchise in the league in terms of how they treat their players, and the horrible luck that has shadowed that franchise forever now --- Ask Dyson Daniels or Tony Allen). Zion was in considerably better shape last year, and he had mentioned multiple times that he could play more games, but his medical team was holding him back.

Detroit's bread and butter used to be taking change-of-scenery guys and making the most of it, as scary at the risk may be. For every Allen Iverson, there is a Chauncey Billups/Ben Wallace/Rasheed Wallace to point to.

We can't be afraid to roll the dice given the horrible environment he has been rotting away in.

[theBigLip]

Langdon knows Zion better than every GM out there. If he’s not interested, that says it all.

That being said - no one is going hand us a young starting caliber PF. We’re going to have to get lucky in the draft or take a chance in a trade. Everything involves some level of risk.

[Snakebites]

I have previously described Zion as "a shortcut through a dark alley."

He gets you where you want to be in terms of talent. You can figure out the shooting/spacing around Cade/Zion and make it work.

But the health risk is *high* and despite what some people think we don't need to take on that kind of risk. It may be a little slower, but there are much safer paths that lead to the same destination.

I'm not opposed to making a move or consolidating talent. I'm opposed to this specific player because he's an exceptionally volatile asset. Even as a straight salary dump with no additional assets attached in not sure I'd do it. And the problem is the cheaper the price becomes the more worried you should be. That's a conundrum in itself.

Is Zion even a risk? Is that even the word to describe it?

Since missing an entire year in 21-22, he has averaged 43 games per year in 3 subsequent seasons.

I wouldn't even call that a risk. You're knowingly trading for a guy where missed time (and a very high amount of it) just has to be a baked in part of the equation. We've seen no indication that his tendency to miss time will change- he's still injury prone and his lack of conditioning makes it worse.

People pointing out his tendency to be out of shape aren't being "haters". They're pointing out a legitimate issue that has caused him to miss more time than he otherwise would have- an issue he doesn't appear motivated to fix.

Not a guy I want on my team at all.

With JSJ, it's hard to assess. People talk about adding guys on the same timeline as our current core, but the flip side of that is that it means adding more guys due extensions soon. Which is my I'm more open to adding players who are a bit older.