Ivey and Duren Extensions

[zeebneeb]

What is people’s nightmare scenario? That he gets an offer too big for us to match? The only way to avoid that, from the sounds of it, would have been to give him that contract outright.

That he takes the QO like Monroe? If he does that it’s because the league didn’t value him either.

We just saw people more impactful than him taking offers in the 20-25 million range. Only data we have says he thinks he can get 30 mill.

The math isn’t difficult here. You wait and see whether he a) becomes worth closer to what he thinks he is or b) the price drops to a reasonable level.

That’s the play. And it’s what we did.

That's a lot of speculation since none of us know where the pistons or duren were in terms of $$.

As for "the math" - no, those aren't the only options. All it takes is for 1 team to be crazy and then we lose him for nothing or match a bad contract. If you look at the teams with projected cap space, it wouldn't be shocking if the top name FA's shunned them and they ended up tossing big money at second tier guys. As a pistons fan, you've seen this play out many times before but it was usually us overbidding - aka the detroit tax.

I wouldn't worry about that though. According to almost everything I've read here, Duren is a terrible defender, (amongst the worst) limited offensively, and shouldn't command any kind of salary whatsoever.

It's best to not sign either of Duren or Ivey, as both players are a dime a dozen, and you can't let your star player (Cade) dictate any kind of personnel decisions.

I'm actually shocked the Pistons still have both on the roster to be honest.

[Snakebites]

As for "the math" - no, those aren't the only options. All it takes is for 1 team to be crazy and then we lose him for nothing or match a bad contract.

Surely risking this is better than giving him a bad contract now, right?

[bstein14]

As for "the math" - no, those aren't the only options. All it takes is for 1 team to be crazy and then we lose him for nothing or match a bad contract.

Surely risking this is better than giving him a bad contract now, right?

A "bad" contract sure.

Is 4 years $80 million too much to pay now? What about 4 years $90 million. Reportedly his "camp" was asking for a deal "north of $30 million per year" in an extension but we don't really know what we offered (if anything) or how low he might have been willing to accept.... It seems like the two sides were far enough apart that the talks never got too serious.

[tmorgan]

Why waste time misrepresenting the opposing argument, zeeb? It just causes more derision from both sides.

There’s way too much of this going on outside of basketball right now. Bringing that here is just… gross.

[Crymson]

Why waste time misrepresenting the opposing argument, zeeb? It just causes more derision from both sides.

Easier to attack others who disagree with him than to back up his statements with facts, that's why.

Forgive my cynicism -- I'm just tired of people who act that way. You've got the right of it.

[Crymson]

That's a lot of speculation since none of us know where the pistons or duren were in terms of $$.

As for "the math" - no, those aren't the only options. All it takes is for 1 team to be crazy and then we lose him for nothing or match a bad contract. If you look at the teams with projected cap space, it wouldn't be shocking if the top name FA's shunned them and they ended up tossing big money at second tier guys. As a pistons fan, you've seen this play out many times before but it was usually us overbidding - aka the detroit tax.

On to another subject with no answer, then. Cool. Not much of a discussion.

[Crymson]

Surely risking this is better than giving him a bad contract now, right?

I'd argue that it's also not much of a risk in an NBA that very sensibly places a low value ceiling upon traditional centers, a fact that seems to be lost upon many people here even with repeated suggestions that they look at the salary data.

From the way some people in here are talking, you'd think that we're still in the early-mid 2010s with traditional bigs being the default center archetype and getting max salaries, and not in the now when they've long since been severely reduced in both numbers and value.

[Snakebites]

Surely risking this is better than giving him a bad contract now, right?

I'd argue that it's also not much of a risk in an NBA that very sensibly places a low value ceiling upon traditional centers, a fact that seems to be lost upon many people here even with repeated suggestions that they look at the salary data.

Yeah, and people act like we don't have plenty of data points that make that clear. I encourage folks to look at the contracts that were handed out this offseason to traditional centers who don't have scoring range/offensive versatility and aren't positive defenders. What Duren brings to the table isn't particularly unique or in demand, and the salaries handed out to centers similar to him in recent years reflect that.

I was more taking a "lets assume for the sake of argument that someone does value Duren like that" type of stance.

[MrBigShot]

Someone will have to correct me if i'm wrong but I don't recall fans generally being too upset at losing Moose at the time. Feels like the consensus at the time was that he was a one way player with no jumper who hadn't improved much since his 2nd year, and played a post centric style that he wasn't really good enough to warrant playing.

Duren is a guy that I think you can put on 30/30 teams rotation somewhere and he'd improve them. A lot harder to get a read on Ivey with his injuries/and 2nd year being derailed.

[Snakebites]

Lets take a look at some recent contracts for centers- I've listed them in order of decreasing per year salary. Note that I'm leaving out max contracts, since I don't think they're very relevant here.

Alperen Sengun- 5 Years 185- 37 million Per- Not a strong defender but a guy you can run an offense through- clear All Star Level Talent

Rudy Gobert- 3 years 109.5 Million- (36.5 Per)- Defending DPOY winner (4 times total), limited offensive role but effective in P/R when needed

*I'm putting a "Duren" marker here because reports say he wants a deal north of 30 million per year. Obviously this is a negotiation stance, but it's the only data we have on what he'd like. Probable he's willing to go lower than "north of 30", but who's to say how far.

Isaiah Hartenstein- 3 Years 87 million (29 Per)- Very underutilized in New York prior to the signing of this deal, but a rock solid 2 way player. Strong defender, good passer, rebounder, p/r player. Better player than Duren. Worth noting he likely got a higher per year amount due to his willingness to accept a shorter deal, and the Thunder were able to give a bit more given most of their guys were on rookie deals at the time.

Myles Turner-4 Year, 107 million (26.75 Per)- Great shooter for a center, decent finisher. Does not create his own shot. Good rim protection and switchable defense. Not an All Star by any means, but has multiple skillsets very valuable in the modern NBA and a proven role as a starter on a contending team. IMO significantly better than Duren.

Jakob Poelt 4/104 million (26 per)- Not a bad all round player on either end of the floor by any means- decent interior defender and scorer. This was an overpay IMO.

Naz Reid- 5/125 Mill (25 per)- Questionable to call him a "center" given how often he plays the 4 and his role on the team, but an elite shooter with size. Questionable value at that price point IMO.

Nic Claxton 4 year 97 million (24.25 per)- Good rim protector with some switching ability- limited offensively. This was and still is a questionable contract despite his defense.

Ivica Zubac- 3 year, 48 million (18 per)- This deal looked fine at the time but now looks like one of the most team friendly contracts in the league. Was already a better defensive player than Duren (who also got nearly a double double) when he signed it though.

Isaiah Stewart- 4 year, 60 Million (15 per)- Great rim protector who can also switch onto perimeter guys. Negative offensive player, which limits the minutes he can play. Proven rotation quality player who would get minutes on contending teams.

Steven Adams 3 year 39 million (13 per)- Was coming off an injury last year. Does a lot of the basic things you want a conventional center to do. Solid backup.

Jonas Valanciunas- 3 year 30 mill (10 per)- Very traditional and average center

Luke Kornet- 4 year, 40 million (10 per)- Proven solid backup on a good team.

Brook Lopez- 2 year 18 mill (9 per)- Good shooter and historically good defender- best years behind him

Deandre Ayton- 2 years 16.6 Million (8.3 per)- Double Double machine- good offensive player in 2 man action. Poor defender. He got 30 mill per on his previous contract and was a great example of why non-defensive traditional centers should never get that kind of money.

Clint Capela- 3 years 21 Million (7 per)- Double double machine (though minutes reduced last year), good offensive player in 2 man action. Decent rim protector. Slightly past peak.

Al Horford- 2 years, 11.6 Million (5.8 per)- Great shooter, historically strong defender with versatility and rim protection, good passer. At the very end of his career- unclear how productive he will be, signed a deal as a veteran looking for another ring.

TL,DR:

That was...a lot, but I didn't want to be accused of cherry picking. I probably missed a few.

Obviously there's a lot of "noise" in this data given there is no unified way in which players are valued by different teams, but it'll suffice to say there's likely a MASSIVE gap between where Duren feels he is on this scale and where the Pistons FO feel he is. And given that I think not extending him was the right move.

I believe you can see that traditional centers who aren't strong defensively generally DON'T get paid. Players getting the big bucks are either very strong defensively or have non-traditional skillsets for big men. The unicorns with both of those qualities aren't on this list because they get the max (JJJ, Chet Holmgren). Duren is neither strong defensively nor does he have a non-traditional skillset for a big man.

Is there a guy on this list who's a perfect analog to Duren? No. But I do think this gives you a sense of where folks who are balking at the notion of Duren getting a large contract are coming from. His skill set doesn't match players who are getting those large contracts.

[tmorgan]

Worth noting that Val has evolved a bit and isn’t just a traditional center now. He shoots threes! Getting older, though. Still a great deal for Denver.

Oh, and our guy Stew is actually a flat 4/60, 15 per. Three years left.

[Snakebites]

Worth noting that Val has evolved a bit and isn’t just a traditional center now. He shoots threes! Getting older, though. Still a great deal for Denver.

Oh, and our guy Stew is actually a flat 4/60, 15 per. Three years left.

Good point on JVal- I guess I hadn't realized that- it's not something he does consistently by the looks of it, but it's there. Still very traditional defensively though. Agreed that it's a solid deal for the Nuggets- they seem interested in reducing Jokic's minutes load next year.

And yeah, Stew's deal is reported differently in some places, but the correct value is 60 million. I'll fix it.

[SuperBad]

I like Duran a lot, but I can’t defend paying him more than Myles Turner, that’s about as impactful as I think he can get comparatively, but he’s not there yet so I’d say 26m is as high as I’d today. I’d gladly encourage him to prove me wrong, I do think he could do it by his prime for sure.

[tmorgan]

Worth noting that Val has evolved a bit and isn’t just a traditional center now. He shoots threes! Getting older, though. Still a great deal for Denver.

Oh, and our guy Stew is actually a flat 4/60, 15 per. Three years left.

Good point on JVal- I guess I hadn't realized that- it's not something he does consistently by the looks of it, but it's there. Still very traditional defensively though. Agreed that it's a solid deal for the Nuggets- they seem interested in reducing Jokic's minutes load next year.

And yeah, Stew's deal is reported differently in some places, but the correct value is 60 million. I'll fix it.

I just use Spotrac. If they’re wrong, I’m wrong. But it’s accurate pretty much all the time as far as I’ve seen.

Actually, *i* hadn’t noticed he didn’t really shoot threes last year. He was putting them up at a decent clip in New Orleans. Guess it’s a coaching thing, kinda like Stew.

[Snakebites]

Worth noting that Val has evolved a bit and isn’t just a traditional center now. He shoots threes! Getting older, though. Still a great deal for Denver.

Oh, and our guy Stew is actually a flat 4/60, 15 per. Three years left.

Good point on JVal- I guess I hadn't realized that- it's not something he does consistently by the looks of it, but it's there. Still very traditional defensively though. Agreed that it's a solid deal for the Nuggets- they seem interested in reducing Jokic's minutes load next year.

And yeah, Stew's deal is reported differently in some places, but the correct value is 60 million. I'll fix it.

I just use Spotrac. If they’re wrong, I’m wrong. But it’s accurate pretty much all the time as far as I’ve seen.

You're definitely right- it was 60 million. All places that attempt to have a record of actual contracts say its 60. It was initially reported in some places as 64 million.

[Crymson]

Worth noting that Val has evolved a bit and isn’t just a traditional center now. He shoots threes! Getting older, though. Still a great deal for Denver.

I'd argue that he's never been a traditional big. He's always been a skilled scorer who could create a good amount of offense for himself, and he's always ranked among the best at his position from short-mid range (call it 5-14 feet).

Defense has always been his weakness.

[Crymson]

Yeah, and people act like we don't have plenty of data points that make that clear. I encourage folks to look at the contracts that were handed out this offseason to traditional centers who don't have scoring range/offensive versatility and aren't positive defenders. What Duren brings to the table isn't particularly unique or in demand, and the salaries handed out to centers similar to him in recent years reflect that.

It's the same here as in any other discussion venue: some people are interested in having informed discussions based upon facts, while others are interested chiefly in shouting opinions and closing their eyes and ears to anything that that contradicts those (and/or lashing out at those who disagree with them).

I was more taking a "lets assume for the sake of argument that someone does value Duren like that" type of stance.

I know!

[theBigLip]

Yeah, and people act like we don't have plenty of data points that make that clear. I encourage folks to look at the contracts that were handed out this offseason to traditional centers who don't have scoring range/offensive versatility and aren't positive defenders. What Duren brings to the table isn't particularly unique or in demand, and the salaries handed out to centers similar to him in recent years reflect that.

It's the same here as in any other discussion venue: some people are interested in having informed discussions based upon facts, while others are interested chiefly in shouting opinions and closing their eyes and ears to anything that that contradicts those (and/or lashing out at those who disagree with them).

I was more taking a "lets assume for the sake of argument that someone does value Duren like that" type of stance.

I know!

It’s opinion vs opinion for this one. How is Duren going to perform for his next contract? Will he stay as he is or get better?

[zeebneeb]

Why waste time misrepresenting the opposing argument, zeeb? It just causes more derision from both sides.

Easier to attack others who disagree with him than to back up his statements with facts, that's why.

Forgive my cynicism -- I'm just tired of people who act that way. You've got the right of it.

Nice try. Your ilk is well documented. No sense in arguing, when the "facts" are actually opinions.

My stance, as it's always been, is I am not going to hard judge a player until about their 5th year. (Hayes is the perfect example, as is Billups)Duren is 21(22 in just a few days) and the way people are talking, its already time to bail.

You can't build a team with all-stars at every position. Having Ausar in the group, means he is going to cover up a whole host of defensive deficiencies from other players, lessening the need for Duren(or any other center for that matter)to be Wilt on the block.

It what seems to be glossed over, is his fit with Cade. It cannot be hand-waived away. Best damn P&R duo in the league, and a nightmare for teams to contend with. Thats actually a positive, not a negative. He also sets damn good screens.

Would I like a Center that blocks 3 shots, is an amazing three-point shooter, rebounds at a great clip, and plays lock down defense all over the court? Yeah, but guess what? That guy doesn't exist.

I like Duren. He works for this team, and to me is worth 30per.

[Crymson]

Nice try. Your ilk is well documented. No sense in arguing, when the "facts" are actually opinions.

If you're going to argue that what are being claimed as facts are actually just opinions, you might provide some examples rather than just making the allegation and moving on.

My stance, as it's always been, is I am not going to hard judge a player until about their 5th year. (Hayes is the perfect example, as is Billups)Duren is 21(22 in just a few days) and the way people are talking, its already time to bail.

Your assertion in this case is in contravention of the data. When a center is still bad defensively after three big-minute seasons, chances are extremely low that the cause is a lack of seasoning. If you can provide some examples of centers whose ability to process the game defensively was as bad after three big-minute seasons as Duren's currently is yet ultimately recovered to be solid defenders, I'd love to hear them.

These should NOT be examples of players who were already solid at that stage of their careers and became better (for example, Lopez, Zubac, Gasol, etc.). Those players already had solid defensive acumen and improved from there.

You can't build a team with all-stars at every position. Having Ausar in the group, means he is going to cover up a whole host of defensive deficiencies from other players, lessening the need for Duren(or any other center for that matter)to be Wilt on the block.

Each player must provide value in a league whose level of talent and competition is brutally high and grows ever higher. Duren, as a traditional big -- that is, quite limited offensively -- must provide his own value defensively, or he is not worthwhile. If he needs somebody to compensate for him defensively, he's providing bad overall value.

It what seems to be glossed over, is his fit with Cade. It cannot be hand-waived away. Best damn P&R duo in the league, and a nightmare for teams to contend with. Thats actually a positive, not a negative. He also sets damn good screens.

Much like Luka, Cade does not have much trouble making athletic bigs perform well in the pick-and-roll. Yes, Duren is a high-level roll man, but he's not irreplaceable, and downgrading slightly would not come with a severe impact. And simply being strong on the pick-and-roll does not make him remarkable offensively in the first place; he's still very limited overall by the standards of the position, compared to those who can shoot and/or reliably create offense.

Would I like a Center that blocks 3 shots, is an amazing three-point shooter, rebounds at a great clip, and plays lock down defense all over the court? Yeah, but guess what? That guy doesn't exist.

This is a strawman argument. Nobody has asked for anything of the sort. They've noted that when it comes to traditional centers, a minimum of solid defense is a must.

I like Duren. He works for this team, and to me is worth 30per.

League front offices disagree with that value for traditional bigs who play minus defense, as there are none of them signed in free agency who are set to make more than $6 million next season. Granted, Duren is good on offense for a traditional big, but that's a very low bar to clear in the greater sense.