The Race To The Bottom - theBigLip Tank Machine

[theBigLip]

Yup. There are four true picks that are in the lottery. So if four teams get lucky and move in front of you, just add 4 to your pre-lotto spot. I think Pistons get the 3rd pick. So worst case we end up at 7, which would suck. But it’s likely to be something in the middle. We end up picking 4?

Why 3rd? We’ve played one more game and have one less win than Houston, and two less than San Antonio. We have twelve games left and we’re epically tanking.

I’m not saying we have the worst record locked up by any means, but it’s certainly more likely than third worst.

I agree, we're tanking much harder than either Houston or SA, Houston in particular is basically playing their whole roster still.
We are playing multiple g-league and 10 day contract guys.

Both Houston and SA are 4-6 in their last 10 games, for reference we are 4-21 in our last 25 games. Houston, in fact is 4-3 in their last. They don't seem to be tanking at all at the moment.

I think we are definitely in the pole position to finish last

If I had to guess Houston specifically does not want to finish last this season, that would be the 3rd consecutive season and would set a futility mark that I don't think has ever happened before

I guess I’m just pessimistic when it comes to our tanking. We’ve won games in the past when we shouldn’t have, and usually our ping pong ball luck hasn’t been good. Agree w both of you it seems like we’ve taken it to a new level this year.

Even if we have #1, it’s likely a couple of (very lucky) teams jump over us. Top 3 would be great, #1 would be franchise altering.

[Homelander87]

So if we finish with the worst record the farthest we can drop is the 3rd pick correct?

5th

Damn that sucks.

[bstein14]

So if we finish with the worst record the farthest we can drop is the 3rd pick correct?

5th

Damn that sucks.

Worst record pick odds.
1st pick = 14.0%
2nd pick = 13.4%
3rd pick = 12.7%
4th pick = 12.0%
5th pick = 47.9%

Odds are the same for the top 4 picks if you finish 2nd or 3rd worst as well... no matter what its essentially a coin flip you either get lucky and get a top 4 pick or you don't and pick 5th/6th.

[Pharaoh]

Despite the disappointing season at least we've given ourselves the best chance possible of landing Wemby. If it's not meant to be then such is life and we move on regardless

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[Laimbeer]

Magic fan offers Bulls pick if it conveys (5-10 range depending on their record at season's end), Bol and Okeke for Duren.

[Snakebites]

5th

Damn that sucks.

Worst record pick odds.
1st pick = 14.0%
2nd pick = 13.4%
3rd pick = 12.7%
4th pick = 12.0%
5th pick = 47.9%

Odds are the same for the top 4 picks if you finish 2nd or 3rd worst as well... no matter what its essentially a coin flip you either get lucky and get a top 4 pick or you don't and pick 5th/6th.

Yeah, there’s a reason not as many teams are tanking.

The lowest positions just don’t carry the value they once did.

[Pharaoh]

Magic fan offers Bulls pick if it conveys (5-10 range depending on their record at season's end), Bol and Okeke for Duren.

The Magic wouldn't do that deal. Would imagine they're pretty content with their bigs and even if they aren't they have cap space to improve it.

If anything I could see them being one team likely to make a major move this off-season considering the assets they could move under the right conditions

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[Homelander87]

5th

Damn that sucks.

Worst record pick odds.
1st pick = 14.0%
2nd pick = 13.4%
3rd pick = 12.7%
4th pick = 12.0%
5th pick = 47.9%

Odds are the same for the top 4 picks if you finish 2nd or 3rd worst as well... no matter what its essentially a coin flip you either get lucky and get a top 4 pick or you don't and pick 5th/6th.

Welp. Looks like we should be mentally preparing ourselves for the 5th pick. Do we trade down landing at 5?

[theBigLip]

Damn that sucks.

Worst record pick odds.
1st pick = 14.0%
2nd pick = 13.4%
3rd pick = 12.7%
4th pick = 12.0%
5th pick = 47.9%

Odds are the same for the top 4 picks if you finish 2nd or 3rd worst as well... no matter what its essentially a coin flip you either get lucky and get a top 4 pick or you don't and pick 5th/6th.

Welp. Looks like we should be mentally preparing ourselves for the 5th pick. Do we trade down landing at 5?

1st/2nd picks are franchise altering
3rd-5th should be elite starters if we draft correctly.

I’m not expecting VM but we will get some solid help from this draft.

[ComboGuardCity]

The #2 pick is semi cursed:
2020 James Wiseman, Memphis - Golden State Warriors
2019 Ja Morant, Murray State – Memphis Grizzlies
2018 Marvin Bagley, Duke – Sacramento Kings
2017 Lonzo Ball, UCLA – Los Angeles Lakers
2016 Brandon Ingram, Duke – Los Angeles Lakers
2015 D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Los Angeles Lakers
2014 Jabari Parker, Duke – Milwaukee Bucks
2013 Victor Oladipo, Indiana – Orlando Magic
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky – Charlotte Bobcats
2011 Derrick Williams, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2010 Evan Turner, Ohio State – Philadelphia 76ers

2000’s

2009 Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut – Memphis Grizzlies
2008 Michael Beasley, Kansas State – Miami HEAT
2007 Kevin Durant, Texas – Seattle Supersonics
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas – Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
2005 Marvin Williams, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
2004 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2003 Darko Milicic, Serbia & Montenegro – Detroit Pistons
2002 Jay Williams, Duke – Chicago Bulls
2001 Tyson Chandler, Dominguez HS (Calif.) – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Chicago Bulls)
2000 Stromile Swift, LSU – Vancouver Grizzlies

In 21 years you have:

1 all timer (4.7%)
2 perennial all NBA (9.4%)
1 all star (4.7%)
2 fringe level all stars (9.4%)
2 injury riddled good players (9.4%)

You’re looking at less than a 30% chance your drafted player is an all star and probably the same chance they’re out of the league in 7 years

[Invictus88]

The #2 pick is semi cursed:
2020 James Wiseman, Memphis - Golden State Warriors
2019 Ja Morant, Murray State – Memphis Grizzlies
2018 Marvin Bagley, Duke – Sacramento Kings
2017 Lonzo Ball, UCLA – Los Angeles Lakers
2016 Brandon Ingram, Duke – Los Angeles Lakers
2015 D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Los Angeles Lakers
2014 Jabari Parker, Duke – Milwaukee Bucks
2013 Victor Oladipo, Indiana – Orlando Magic
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky – Charlotte Bobcats
2011 Derrick Williams, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2010 Evan Turner, Ohio State – Philadelphia 76ers

2000’s

2009 Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut – Memphis Grizzlies
2008 Michael Beasley, Kansas State – Miami HEAT
2007 Kevin Durant, Texas – Seattle Supersonics
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas – Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
2005 Marvin Williams, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
2004 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2003 Darko Milicic, Serbia & Montenegro – Detroit Pistons
2002 Jay Williams, Duke – Chicago Bulls
2001 Tyson Chandler, Dominguez HS (Calif.) – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Chicago Bulls)
2000 Stromile Swift, LSU – Vancouver Grizzlies

In 21 years you have:

1 all timer (4.7%)
2 perennial all NBA (9.4%)
1 all star (4.7%)
2 fringe level all stars (9.4%)
2 injury riddled good players (9.4%)

You’re looking at less than a 30% chance your drafted player is an all star and probably the same chance they’re out of the league in 7 years

All of this may be true and I'm sure you can do a study of a later pick somewhere and find the numbers are better.

Then you go and take the findings of both positions and ask literally anybody whether they would straight up swap out of the #2 position to one of these other 'more favorable' lower draft positions...

Fun study CGC. I just don't think it matters a lick.

[Snakebites]

There’s nothing magical about pick 2. Teams have made some bad decisions there.

[Pharaoh]

Nothing magical about any Draft slot - every year GMs make mistakes.

There's not a single GM in the league who gets it right on Draft Day every year

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[Manocad]

I’ll go back to the 2004 draft. Lebron and Darko were #1 and #2 PERIOD on every draft board. There’s no way to make a guaranteed hit.

[bstein14]

I’ll go back to the 2004 draft. Lebron and Darko were #1 and #2 PERIOD on every draft board. There’s no way to make a guaranteed hit.

2003 draft... but there was certainly a fair amount of discussion here and around the league about whether or not Carmelo, who just came off a championship as the man at Syracuse as a Freshman... should be the #2 pick. Bosh, Wade or anyone else was never really ever a thought, but we certainly had questioned whether or not Carmelo should have been the guy.

Dumars even later admitted that part of what drew him to Darko and away from Carmelo was the fact that he was so high on Prince starting at SF.... which is a really poor way to draft of course but there certainly wasn't enough separation between the two for Dumars to feel like he had to pick Carmelo.

[Invictus88]

I’ll go back to the 2004 draft. Lebron and Darko were #1 and #2 PERIOD on every draft board. There’s no way to make a guaranteed hit.

2003 draft... but there was certainly a fair amount of discussion here and around the league about whether or not Carmelo, who just came off a championship as the man at Syracuse as a Freshman... should be the #2 pick. Bosh, Wade or anyone else was never really ever a thought, but we certainly had questioned whether or not Carmelo should have been the guy.

Dumars even later admitted that part of what drew him to Darko and away from Carmelo was the fact that he was so high on Prince starting at SF.... which is a really poor way to draft of course but there certainly wasn't enough separation between the two for Dumars to feel like he had to pick Carmelo.

The appeal of a 7 footer who theoretically can block shots, score with both hands in the post and has both a midrange game and 3 point shooting is pretty staggering.

Now none of it turned out to be true; aided in large part due to no motor/drive.

[Pharaoh]

I’ll go back to the 2004 draft. Lebron and Darko were #1 and #2 PERIOD on every draft board. There’s no way to make a guaranteed hit.

2003 draft... but there was certainly a fair amount of discussion here and around the league about whether or not Carmelo, who just came off a championship as the man at Syracuse as a Freshman... should be the #2 pick. Bosh, Wade or anyone else was never really ever a thought, but we certainly had questioned whether or not Carmelo should have been the guy.

Dumars even later admitted that part of what drew him to Darko and away from Carmelo was the fact that he was so high on Prince starting at SF.... which is a really poor way to draft of course but there certainly wasn't enough separation between the two for Dumars to feel like he had to pick Carmelo.

The appeal of a 7 footer who theoretically can block shots, score with both hands in the post and has both a midrange game and 3 point shooting is pretty staggering.

Now none of it turned out to be true; aided in large part due to no motor/drive.

And Larry Brown

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[Snakebites]

Nothing will ever convince me that Darko would have been a success under a different coach.

He didn’t have the right mindset. Being a good NBA player is, to state the obvious, really really hard. Both physically and mentally. He didn’t have it.

[The Moose]

Rockets win again, on a Jabari Smith game winner

Spurs blew a 29 point 2nd half lead

[Manocad]

I’ll go back to the 2004 draft. Lebron and Darko were #1 and #2 PERIOD on every draft board. There’s no way to make a guaranteed hit.

2003 draft... but there was certainly a fair amount of discussion here and around the league about whether or not Carmelo, who just came off a championship as the man at Syracuse as a Freshman... should be the #2 pick. Bosh, Wade or anyone else was never really ever a thought, but we certainly had questioned whether or not Carmelo should have been the guy.

Dumars even later admitted that part of what drew him to Darko and away from Carmelo was the fact that he was so high on Prince starting at SF.... which is a really poor way to draft of course but there certainly wasn't enough separation between the two for Dumars to feel like he had to pick Carmelo.

Pardon me, 2003 draft.

But there were no if's, and's or but's that Lebron and Darko were going #1 and #2 PERIOD. Carmelo literally became never more than he was in college and being that he was a SF and the Pistons had Prince, there was no serious consideration that the Pistons would take him.