Run it Back or Upgrade?

[bstein14]

Duren is overwhelmingly unlikely to be getting paid at all unless his defense takes a gigantic step.

I’m not at all sure that’s true unless you’ve seen something I haven’t.

Not saying his defense isn’t a problem, just that I’ve seen nothing that indicates we’re moving on from him.

Yeah, wishful thinking to think that players are only paid for exactly what they have contributed. They're also paid for their potential, so Duren will be paid. We can only hope it is less than Duren is hoping for.

Honestly from what we've seen Duren should be worth about the same as Stew, $15 million per... That said, he'll get at least the full MLE which is 2026 is likely to be $16, $17, $18, $19 for four years. The fact the Lakers called about him means other teams do have some interest in what he provides.

Anything more than 4 years $80 million I'd make him go out and get an offer from another team as a restricted FA and then we match. Same goes for Ivey.

[Kalamazoo317]

I think Stew + inflation makes sense for Duren

[Crymson]

I’m not at all sure that’s true unless you’ve seen something I haven’t.

Not saying his defense isn’t a problem, just that I’ve seen nothing that indicates we’re moving on from him.

The market for traditional centers who are minus defenders is genuinely nonexistent. Defense is the most important duty for a traditional big. Nobody wants to give a major rotation role to a traditional big who's a minus defender, and none of them who aren't plus defenders get paid any significant amount of money (by NBA standards),

Moving on or giving him an extension aren't the only options. There's always waiting until next summer (or the deadline) and making a decision then. That assumes the FO doesn't find an opportunity to upgrade this summer, of course. But he's just so behind on defense. He'd need to take a truly giant leap next season.

For reference, here is the list of non-rookie-contract traditional centers currently under guaranteed contract for next season at more than $6 million:

Gobert: $35,000,000
Hartenstein: $28,500,000
Claxton: $25,352,272
Allen: $20,000,000
Poeltl: $19,500,000
Zubac: $18,102,000
Okongwu: $15,000,000
Gafford: $15,000,000.
R. Williams: $13,285,713
Robinson: $12,954,000
Bitadze: $8,300,000
Landale: $8,000,000

All of them are plus defenders, and the only ones being paid upwards of $15 million big money are genuinely strong defenders (with the arguable exception of Poeltl, who is still a solid defender, but isn't as good as he was when he was signed -- but he's still being paid only 12.5% of the cap).

And the talk of his defense leaves aside the questions about his work ethic. Though he tried hard in the final two-thirds of this season, that amounts to less than 60 games over the past two seasons. The fact that he's got an off switch at all is a concern, because there's nothing to say that his improved work ethic is necessarily here to stay for the long term. But again, that's a moot concern if his defense doesn't take a huge leap.

Yeah, wishful thinking to think that players are only paid for exactly what they have contributed. They're also paid for their potential, so Duren will be paid. We can only hope it is less than Duren is hoping for.

Duren's defensive potential is currently in extreme question, and defense is the most important job for a traditional big. Nobody wants to pay a traditional big who's a minus defender. It's a bad bet, because they provide bad value.

[tmorgan]

None of this addresses what I said… there’s no indication thus far we’re looking at moving on from him.

I do hope his defense issues reduce his asking price, both because it’ll make our future payroll problems smaller and because it’d make him easier to move if we go that way.

In any case, I expect Cade’s favorite lob target to be resigned, like it or not.

[bstein14]

None of this addresses what I said… there’s no indication thus far we’re looking at moving on from him.

I do hope his defense issues reduce his asking price, both because it’ll make our future payroll problems smaller and because it’d make him easier to move if we go that way.

In any case, I expect Cade’s favorite lob target to be resigned, like it or not.

The rumor was that we are looking for a big who can shoot... Hard to know how important that is or isn't at this point.... but that at least gives us a little doubt as to whether or not we're slotting in Duren to be the long term starter. If we don't give him an extension this summer it probably creates a little more doubt.

[Crymson]

None of this addresses what I said… there’s no indication thus far we’re looking at moving on from him.

I feel like nothing in your response addresses what I said: that moving on this offseason or extending him are not the only two options -- there's also no indication thus far that they're definitely going to extend him, and there's every reason for them to wait -- and that traditional bigs who are minus defenders are undesirable, provide bad value, and do not get paid.

I do hope his defense issues reduce his asking price, both because it’ll make our future payroll problems smaller and because it’d make him easier to move if we go that way.

In any case, I expect Cade’s favorite lob target to be resigned, like it or not.

Every decision any front office makes is based upon player value. Duren could be the best lob threat in NBA history and he'd still provide negative value in today's league if he's a minus defender. And the league does not have a shortage of athletic bigs who play well on the roll.

If it's so certain that he'll be extended, could you point out a single well-paid traditional big in today's league who's a minus defender? There aren't any. Even the guys making 5% of the cap next season are plus defenders. Why do you figure that is?

[theBigLip]

I’m not at all sure that’s true unless you’ve seen something I haven’t.

Not saying his defense isn’t a problem, just that I’ve seen nothing that indicates we’re moving on from him.

The market for traditional centers who are minus defenders is genuinely nonexistent. Defense is the most important duty for a traditional big. Nobody wants to give a major rotation role to a traditional big who's a minus defender, and none of them who aren't plus defenders get paid any significant amount of money (by NBA standards),

Moving on or giving him an extension aren't the only options. There's always waiting until next summer (or the deadline) and making a decision then. That assumes the FO doesn't find an opportunity to upgrade this summer, of course. But he's just so behind on defense. He'd need to take a truly giant leap next season.

For reference, here is the list of non-rookie-contract traditional centers currently under guaranteed contract for next season at more than $6 million:

Gobert: $35,000,000
Hartenstein: $28,500,000
Claxton: $25,352,272
Allen: $20,000,000
Poeltl: $19,500,000
Zubac: $18,102,000
Okongwu: $15,000,000
Gafford: $15,000,000.
R. Williams: $13,285,713
Robinson: $12,954,000
Bitadze: $8,300,000
Landale: $8,000,000

All of them are plus defenders, and the only ones being paid upwards of $15 million big money are genuinely strong defenders (with the arguable exception of Poeltl, who is still a solid defender, but isn't as good as he was when he was signed -- but he's still being paid only 12.5% of the cap).

And the talk of his defense leaves aside the questions about his work ethic. Though he tried hard in the final two-thirds of this season, that amounts to less than 60 games over the past two seasons. The fact that he's got an off switch at all is a concern, because there's nothing to say that his improved work ethic is necessarily here to stay for the long term. But again, that's a moot concern if his defense doesn't take a huge leap.

Yeah, wishful thinking to think that players are only paid for exactly what they have contributed. They're also paid for their potential, so Duren will be paid. We can only hope it is less than Duren is hoping for.

Duren's defensive potential is currently in extreme question, and defense is the most important job for a traditional big. Nobody wants to pay a traditional big who's a minus defender. It's a bad bet, because they provide bad value.

It seems your opinion is that Duren is one of the worst defenders in the league and he will never get any better. I’m much more optimistic. He can also score and rebound. At 21, and if he continues to work hard, I expect him to be at least an average defender. If we can extend him for $20M per or less, I’d take that chance.

[Crymson]

It seems your opinion is that Duren is one of the worst defenders in the league and he will never get any better. I’m much more optimistic. He can also score and rebound. At 21, and if he continues to work hard, I expect him to be at least an average defender. If we can extend him for $20M per or less, I’d take that chance.

Any traditional big can rebound. As for scoring, traditional bigs are inherently very limited on offense. That's why they've got to be good defenders.

As for optimism or lack thereof, that's obviously down to the individual. But (though I don't mean to sound authoritative) it's a fact that he's got very poor defensive acumen for a center who's played three seasons, and it's also a fact that he's far behind in that same category by the standards of traditional bigs with that same level of experience. That would be concern enough on its own, and it also leaves aside the issue of his lateral mobility being shot (maybe that'll reverse itself, though it seems unlikely after two seasons of it) and him being unswitchable as a result; and being unswitchable is a major hit to any center's defensive ceiling.

Can you think of a traditional big who had this little defensive acumen after three seasons and became a solid defender?

Anyway, another fact is that teams don't pay traditional bigs who are still bad defenders when the question of an extension or a free agent contract comes up. I think the list I just provided proves that well enough. They're bad wagers, because the likelihood that they'll become plus defenders is low.

[tmorgan]

None of this addresses what I said… there’s no indication thus far we’re looking at moving on from him.

And you haven't addressed any of what I said: that moving on this offseason or extending him are not the only two options -- there's also no indication thus far that they're going to extend him, and there's every reason for them to wait -- and that traditional bigs who are minus defenders are undesirable, provide bad value, and do not get paid.

I do hope his defense issues reduce his asking price, both because it’ll make our future payroll problems smaller and because it’d make him easier to move if we go that way.

In any case, I expect Cade’s favorite lob target to be resigned, like it or not.

Every decision any front office makes depends upon player value. Duren could be the best lob threat in NBA history and he'd still provide negative value in today's league if he's a minus defender. And the league does not have a shortage of athletic bigs who play well on the roll.

If it's so certain that he'll be extended, could you point out a single well-paid traditional big in today's league who's a minus defender? There aren't any. Even the guys making 5% of the cap next season are plus defenders. Why do you figure that is?

There’s plenty of other centers, Crymson. You’ve just excluded them from your list of “traditional bigs” because they shoot the occasional three, even if it isn’t the primary source of their offense.

You’re just doing what you frequently do here — grabbing the bit and running with it, establishing what you want to discuss and ignoring what other people are saying. Sometimes, like in this case, ignoring variables you don’t care for or don’t want to discuss. I’m good with this discussion. Of course there are other options, we aren’t idiots in here.

BUT BUT BUT traditional bigs with bad defense don’t get paid! Yeah, I heard you the first five times, man.

Duren has great hands and good touch. Solid free throw shooter for a bruising big. Very good passer for a bruising big. Goes hard, no soft stuff, great play finisher. These are all things that matter, even if his ankles or brain or whatever keep him poor defensively. It’s nice having a guy like Stew around when causing trouble on offense isn’t as important to the matchup as playing good defense and switching.

If we deal him, I’ll understand. If we do decide to extend him, however, I’m also prepared for your next railing against him, even if his defense is properly baked into the price we pay. Now if we give him too much money for what he provides, I’ll be right there with you. We’ll probably disagree on what that number is. BUT traditional…. I know, dude.

[Crymson]

There’s plenty of other centers, Crymson. You’ve just excluded them from your list of “traditional bigs” because they shoot the occasional three, even if it isn’t the primary source of their offense.

You've implied that I'm presenting my evidence in poor faith, yet you haven't provided any examples as to why you believe that to be the case. If you feel that I am deliberately excluding exculpatory evidence, then let's hear some of those examples, especially those who provide passable value against their contracts.

Traditional bigs are not those who merely cannot shoot threes. They're those who, in addition to that, cannot reliably create offense for themselves, especially from away from the basket, and are instead extremely dependent upon their teammates creating offense for them instead.

Sabonis shoots few threes. Ayton has never bothered to try. Sengun tries but is bad at it. None of them is a traditional big, or anything close to it. All are skilled offensive centers. I've included Okongwu on my list of traditional bigs because even though he attempts about 20% of his field goals from the perimeter and hits them at a barely-less-than-efficiency-threshold percentage, he still overwhelmingly plays like a traditional big.

You’re just doing what you frequently do here — grabbing the bit and running with it, establishing what you want to discuss and ignoring what other people are saying. Sometimes, like in this case, ignoring variables you don’t care for or don’t want to discuss. I’m good with this discussion. Of course there are other options, we aren’t idiots in here.

I think there's absolutely no need for ad hominems here. You may be good with this discussion, but if this is the tack you're going to take, I am not. Not that I believe you should particularly care about that -- I'm just a dude you discuss basketball with on an internet forum -- but there it is.

I also feel like your accusations of me the arguments of you and others are especially misplaced given that your responses today have declined to address anything I've said, in this particular case in favor of attacking my arguments, and me, instead.

BUT BUT BUT traditional bigs with bad defense don’t get paid! Yeah, I heard you the first five times, man.

I think it's a very salient point. I believe it's one you haven't genuinely addressed, whether here or elsewhere.

Duren has great hands and good touch. Solid free throw shooter for a bruising big. Very good passer for a bruising big. Goes hard, no soft stuff, great play finisher. These are all things that matter, even if his ankles or brain or whatever keep him poor defensively.

Emphasis on "for a bruising big." I believe I've noted plenty of times that he's good on offense by the standards of traditional bigs. And yes, that's helpful. But he's still very limited offensively, like all traditional bigs.

It’s nice having a guy like Stew around when causing trouble on offense isn’t as important to the matchup as playing good defense and switching.

I'd argue that if you need to switch away from your starting center to your backup against good defenses because it's too costly to have him on the floor in those cases, that's a player whose value is severely compromised -- especially in the postseason -- and is not worth committing to.

If we deal him, I’ll understand. If we do decide to extend him, however, I’m also prepared for your next railing against him, even if his defense is properly baked into the price we pay. Now if we give him too much money for what he provides, I’ll be right there with you. We’ll probably disagree on what that number is. BUT traditional…. I know, dude.

Look, I haven't attacked you or your opinions. I've enjoyed discussing the Pistons with you thus far, and I'm not sure why you're taking this course today. But if this is how you feel, then I believe we're best off calling it a day and not interacting anymore.

[TPA]

Duren's defense has been bad, but I saw improvement during the second half of the season. He still requires continued growth and consistency on that end to be considered "good", but the guy is still just 21 years old.
Duren is going to command $20-25 million per year for his next contract, whether that be from Detroit or some other team. I'd bet on that.

[Crymson]

Duren's defense has been bad, but I saw improvement during the second half of the season. He still requires continued growth and consistency on that end to be considered "good", but the guy is still just 21 years old.

I feel like it's an important point that it was less improvement and more just reversion. He started trying again after about 90 games of (self-admittedly) phoning it in on defense, and reverted back to roughly the same caliber of defense he'd played as a rookie, back when he was a poor and raw but hardworking and potentially promising defender -- though he's now significantly less mobile (and less promising, given that he's now three seasons in and hasn't improved upon his rookie performance) than he was at that point.

Not pointing at you here, but it's weird to me that so many people have forgotten about Duren's rookie season.

Duren is going to command $20-25 million per year for his next contract, whether that be from Detroit or some other team. I'd bet on that.

No point in me asking the same question again, I guess.

[tmorgan]

then I believe we're best off calling it a day and not interacting anymore.

Agreed.

[Crymson]

then I believe we're best off calling it a day and not interacting anymore.

Agreed.

I'm sorry to hear it, though I realize I didn't specify whether it would be for today or altogether. Which would you prefer?

[TPA]

No point in me asking the same question again, I guess.

I've read your assertions and logic, and I'll state it again. I'd be willing to bet Duren's next contract (further debilitating injuries aside) is in the 20-25m ballpark.

[Crymson]

I've read your assertions and logic, and I'll state it again. I'd be willing to bet Duren's next contract (further debilitating injuries aside) is in the 20-25m ballpark.

I'm curious to hear why! And do you figure that'll be his contract number with or without significant improvement on defense?

[theBigLip]

It seems your opinion is that Duren is one of the worst defenders in the league and he will never get any better. I’m much more optimistic. He can also score and rebound. At 21, and if he continues to work hard, I expect him to be at least an average defender. If we can extend him for $20M per or less, I’d take that chance.

Any traditional big can rebound. As for scoring, traditional bigs are inherently very limited on offense. That's why they've got to be good defenders.

As for optimism or lack thereof, that's obviously down to the individual. But (though I don't mean to sound authoritative) it's a fact that he's got very poor defensive acumen for a center who's played three seasons, and it's also a fact that he's far behind in that same category by the standards of traditional bigs with that same level of experience. That would be concern enough on its own, and it also leaves aside the issue of his lateral mobility being shot (maybe that'll reverse itself, though it seems unlikely after two seasons of it) and him being unswitchable as a result; and being unswitchable is a major hit to any center's defensive ceiling.

Can you think of a traditional big who had this little defensive acumen after three seasons and became a solid defender?

Anyway, another fact is that teams don't pay traditional bigs who are still bad defenders when the question of an extension or a free agent contract comes up. I think the list I just provided proves that well enough. They're bad wagers, because the likelihood that they'll become plus defenders is low.

Brooke Lopez is the ultimate example. I don’t expect Duren to get to that level but he will improve on D. He may have three years experience but he’s still so young, hence my optimism. And also, he’s extremely athletic compared to other post players.

[Crymson]

Brooke Lopez is the ultimate example. I don’t expect Duren to get to that level but he will improve on D. He may have three years experience but he’s still so young, hence my optimism.

My question was about centers who improved from bad to solid, not the occasional guys like Lopez who improve from solid to good. Lopez was never a bad defender, and he was a plus defender with the Nets and the Lakers. He got better later in his career, though it helped a lot that he found himself in an ideal situation in Milwaukee next to arguably the greatest roaming interior help defender ever to play in the NBA and in a defensive scheme/environment that allowed him to primarily play in drop, where he's at his best. He didn't have those luxuries in NJ/Brooklyn or LA.

And also, he’s extremely athletic compared to other post players.

I don't mean to split hairs or repeat myself, but pretty much every traditional big in today's league is athletic, and Duren's bad lateral mobility is a big gap in his athleticism. I'd also argue that though Duren is an excellent run-jump athlete by the standards of his position, he isn't particularly mobile overall in a functional way on defense. Stew, for example, is much less athletic than Duren overall, but has a great deal better functional mobility on defense in almost every way.

[DetroitSho]

Since we don't have his bird rights, how much can we sign Beasley for if we operate as an over the cap team?
Or can we only use MLE on him?
Can we give him a no trade clause? Lol
A player option so we can sign him down the road to a bigger contract?

$7.2 million(120% of his previous salary) if we operate as an over the cap team that wants to save its MLE $ for someone else.

So to make it worth his while, we could sign him to a 2 yr deal,with player option In 2nd yr with a wink wink nudge nudge of our intention to sign him to bigger contract in the future?

Yeah that's right, let's just Joe Smith ourselves.

Sent from my SM-S918U using RealGM mobile app

[Canadafan]

$7.2 million(120% of his previous salary) if we operate as an over the cap team that wants to save its MLE $ for someone else.

So to make it worth his while, we could sign him to a 2 yr deal,with player option In 2nd yr with a wink wink nudge nudge of our intention to sign him to bigger contract in the future?

Yeah that's right, let's just Joe Smith ourselves.

Sent from my SM-S918U using RealGM mobile app