The Lottery - Tuesday, May 20th

[Q00]

Do you guys know in order to trade Monroe he has to want to sign to that team,

Yeah but he's going after money so he won't care which team.

yep, and in order for him to get the most money, we have to agree to the S&T. So if he wants that extra 5th year of the deal, he will have to chose a team of our liking that gets us the best return package. Otherwise we could just say no and force him to resign here for only 4yrs. Which would cost him $10-15 mil.

[504ByrdGang]

Do you guys know in order to trade Monroe he has to want to sign to that team,

Yeah but he's going after money so he won't care which team.

He's going after money but as with every person with multiple job opportunities they will take a sacrifice in pay to work in a desirable location and put them in the best position to succeed. So if you think he will just run to the Kings for an extra mill and be miserable in sac and stay on another losing team your sadly mistaken.

[epheisey]

so I ran the probability of the cavs' results the past four years in the lottery and got some results.

someone confirm/deny my results, it's been a while since I learned probability. this is the odds of 1st-not 1st-1st-1st happening for them given their lottery position.

Year: Chances (Odds)
2011: 227 (22.7%)
2012: 862 (86.2%)
2013: 156 (15.6%)
2014: 17 (1.7%)

so if you multiply the odds together there is a 0.05% chance of them getting the results they did.

think of it like this: the odds of getting 1st in 2011 was 22.7%. the odds of them NOT getting first in 2012 after getting first in 2011 was 86.2% of 22.7% (19.6%). the odds of getting the first in 2013 after the past two years was 15.6% of 19.6% (3.1%). the odds of getting first this year after the past three years was 1.7% of 3.1% (0.05%)

my results might be a little different than some posted (here or on twitter, w/e) because in 2011 the cavs had two lottery pick - the 2nd and the 8th (from the clippers). it was the 8th pick that actually won the lottery, they dropped from the 2nd spot to 4th and got Thompson with that pick. anyways, my calculation counted both of their lottery picks while some stats are just using the unlikely 8th pick (2.8% it got first) as part of their calculation.

The odds for their three #1 picks works out to be something like .007%

Either way, the fact that Cleveland has won the lottery 4 times in such a short period of time is bull****

I always jumped on the NBA conspiracy bandwagons simply because it was a fun excuse for the randomness of the lottery, but this is ridiculous.

The best part is, the Cavs are going to eff up, take Embiid, and he's not even going to be one of the top 5 players in the draft class. That's classic Cavs though.

[Pharaoh]

Conspiracy theorists could argue the reason the Cavs have been gifted their #1s is because after LeBron bailed the team was worth $1!

In an effort to save Gilbert the league gave them Irving & Bennett...not enough in compensation for losing the MVP...so they got Wiggins.

Now the league has saved the Cavs they won't get the #1 until whatever new system (wheel?) allocates it to them.

Of course if you believe in the Lotto being rigged the Lakers want a word with you! Wiggins or Embiid would have really helped them either via keeping the #1 or by trading it for Kevin Love

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[ChainLink]

Honestly, when I think about the frustration about this lottery, us losing our pick doesn't even enter the equation.

I am genuinely pissed that we lost it because CLEVELAND moved up, though.

This is the worst. New Orleans, Minnesota, Phoenix moving into the top 3 and forcing us out of this draft...it'd ruin my day, but whatever.

The fact that it's CLEVELAND again.

[Sheedpocalypse]

I woke up (Europe) to check our pick and saw this tale unravel on my screen.
This seriously feels like watching the douchebag you hated in school getting all the good job opportunities, botch them up and getting a shot at one yet again.

It's not even really that 8th pick. It's that this dysfunctional loser Cleveland franchise is nr. 1 again. #### the Cavs man.

[Laimbeer]

Do you guys know in order to trade Monroe he has to want to sign to that team,

Yeah but he's going after money so he won't care which team.

yep, and in order for him to get the most money, we have to agree to the S&T. So if he wants that extra 5th year of the deal, he will have to chose a team of our liking that gets us the best return package. Otherwise we could just say no and force him to resign here for only 4yrs. Which would cost him $10-15 mil.

I believe we can match and then trade him to anyone at a later time, not sure how long we have to wait?

[The Penguin]

Conspiracy theorists could argue the reason the Cavs have been gifted their #1s is because after LeBron bailed the team was worth $1!

In an effort to save Gilbert the league gave them Irving & Bennett...not enough in compensation for losing the MVP...so they got Wiggins.

Now the league has saved the Cavs they won't get the #1 until whatever new system (wheel?) allocates it to them.

Of course if you believe in the Lotto being rigged the Lakers want a word with you! Wiggins or Embiid would have really helped them either via keeping the #1 or by trading it for Kevin Love

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

I will forever believe the league gave Dan Gilbert 3 number 1 overall picks for him to stay quiet about collusion. Boston & LA are too obvious for a rigged lotto and the league knows guys are going to go there in FA. The league doesn't need to save basketball in LA or Boston, they do in Cleveland. Anyone who believes this is random is kidding themselves. There's a reason they do it behind locked doors. Last night was the final payment for Gilbert's hush fund and a convenient opportunity for the league to flash the new Hornets logo.

[ocellatus921]

They need to implement a rule that a team can only win a top 3 pick only once every 5 years.

[imagump1313]

I'm not really worried about this. This draft is totally overrated and we don't need anymore rookies anyway. We'll be fine.

I don't understand everyone jumping off bridges here. Hiring a good coach was way more important than having that pick that is probably going to be a marginal NBA player at best.

I used to be one of the people who thought the lottery was rigged but Cleveland winning again instead of the Lakers or Knicks proves to me that its not.

[Liqourish]

Cleveland has not gotten #1 three times, but hasn't Detroit now moved down in the draft 3 times? What are the odds of that??

[kurtis48239]

They need to implement a rule that a team can only win a top 3 pick only once every 5 years.

This right here,even Simmons suggested this.It would force the **** teams to be more wise in FA/Contracts or after awhile be booted from the NBA all together.With this solution it would even out the lottery and every team that is in it for awhile would eventually get a top 3.I always joked and never really believed the lottery was rigged,but after this,it really has me questioning,the cavs cant be this lucky.I wouldnt be suprised to see something come out about the lottery being rigged in the next 20-30 yrs.

[Irate]

Do you guys know in order to trade Monroe he has to want to sign to that team,

Yeah but he's going after money so he won't care which team.

yep, and in order for him to get the most money, we have to agree to the S&T. So if he wants that extra 5th year of the deal, he will have to chose a team of our liking that gets us the best return package. Otherwise we could just say no and force him to resign here for only 4yrs. Which would cost him $10-15 mil.

Monroe can never get a 5th year in a sing-and-trade. They changed that rule in the new CBA.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q90

Sign-and-trade contracts must be for at least three seasons (not including any option year) and no longer than four seasons.

[Laimbeer]

End of the day, the lottery determined which pick we lose. It was already a given we would lose one. I ended up preferring we get this year's, but it's still not as terrible as we're making it out to be. A lot of Charlotte fans actually wanted the 2015.

[Liver_Pooty]

End of the day, the lottery determined which pick we lose. It was already a given we would lose one. I ended up preferring we get this year's, but it's still not as terrible as we're making it out to be. A lot of Charlotte fans actually wanted the 2015.

There is something wrong with those 2 or 3 individuals that did.

[kurtis48239]

End of the day, the lottery determined which pick we lose. It was already a given we would lose one. I ended up preferring we get this year's, but it's still not as terrible as we're making it out to be. A lot of Charlotte fans actually wanted the 2015.

There is something wrong with those 2 or 3 individuals that did.

Yea I was just over there and for maybe 2-3 guys the rest of the board are happy and wanted this pick.

[kurtis48239]

Iam really confused,how did we tank last season.Other than sitting smith for the last 4-5 games (because of injury),how exactly did we tank.

[Sheedpocalypse]

Iam really confused,how did we tank last season.Other than sitting smith for the last 4-5 games (because of injury),how exactly did we tank.

We didn't. We just had the right amount of knuckleheads to chuck us into oblivion.

[kurtis48239]

Iam really confused,how did we tank last season.Other than sitting smith for the last 4-5 games (because of injury),how exactly did we tank.

We didn't. We just had the right amount of knuckleheads to chuck us into oblivion.

I know, it was more of a rhetorical question.The char board is acting like we deserved to lose that pick because we tanked after all star game.Which isnt true but still.To bad they dont make a smiley face gif of a smiley head pointing a gun to its head,lol.

[rmfc]

I really dislike the word Lottery.