Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

[bstein14]

Tied wins means sharing % odds and then the coin flip determines position if no one moves up.

I'd say its fairly likely we could end up with the same number of wins as OKC or Orlando so sharing a 3/4 or 4/5 spot in the standings also isn't the worst thing.

I actually think, based on looking at the remaining schedules, Detroit, OKC, and Orlando could all finish with 21 wins which would average out the %s of the 3/4/5 spots assuming Minny only finishes with 20 wins.

If I had to put #s on the final records right now, based on remaining schedules and how teams are currently playing, it'd look like this.

1. Houston 16 wins (1 more win this season)
2. Minnesota 20 wins (3 more wins this season)
3. Detroit 21 wins (3 more wins this season)
4. Orlando 21 wins (3 more wins this season)
5. OKC 21 wins (1 more win this season)

Obviously the Detroit/Orlando game on Monday May 3rd is quickly becoming the most important tank game remaining for us this season.

[440BB]

Keeping my fingers crossed that Weaver and Casey find a way to lose while looking competitive the rest of the way. They've done pretty well so far and could choose a stealthy all out tank. With so few games left I think the players could handle it.

This has been a season of surprises, maybe one more?

[Manocad]

I'm just playing off the insistence that if the Pistons don't wind up drafting in the top 3 all hopes of getting a stud and winning a championship are gone and Weaver should be fired for screwing things up so badly. Thus it can logically be inferred that whoever does pick #1 will be getting a HOFer and therefore should be expected to win a championship before the Pistons.

[NYPiston]

Tied wins means sharing % odds and then the coin flip determines position if no one moves up.

I'd say its fairly likely we could end up with the same number of wins as OKC or Orlando so sharing a 3/4 or 4/5 spot in the standings also isn't the worst thing.

I actually think, based on looking at the remaining schedules, Detroit, OKC, and Orlando could all finish with 21 wins which would average out the %s of the 3/4/5 spots assuming Minny only finishes with 20 wins.

If I had to put #s on the final records right now, based on remaining schedules and how teams are currently playing, it'd look like this.

1. Houston 16 wins (1 more win this season)
2. Minnesota 20 wins (3 more wins this season)
3. Detroit 21 wins (3 more wins this season)
4. Orlando 21 wins (3 more wins this season)
5. OKC 21 wins (1 more win this season)

Obviously the Detroit/Orlando game on Monday May 3rd is quickly becoming the most important tank game remaining for us this season.

There's just no way Orlando gets 3 more wins. I'm having a hard time seeing them getting 1 win, they've checked out for the season.
The window for the Thunder to win a game is one of the Kings games with Fox out. Otherwise, it looks unlikely that they'll win a game. Kind of unreal, even with those depleted rosters, that it's realistic that the Magic and Thunder lose a combined 32 games in a row to end the season.

I'd also be really surprised if the Pistons only got 3 wins with that home heavy schedule but I suppose 3-8 isn't completely out of the realm of possibilities.

[Snakebites]

Yeah, it’s weird. The Thunder and Magic are undergoing as hard a tank job as I’ve ever seen despite the modified lottery odds.

If the goal of changing the odds was to deincentivize tanking then it appears to have failed based on the last couple of years. I still prefer these odds though.

[GelbeWand09]

Yeah, it’s weird. The Thunder and Magic are undergoing as hard a tank job as I’ve ever seen despite the modified lottery odds.

If the goal of changing the odds was to deincentivize tanking then it appears to have failed based on the last couple of years. I still prefer these odds though.

Yea when we keep that current rotation, i dont see us winning more than 1 game. But on the other side, we started resting players later than any other team at the bottom. We played every available player all season long, Vuc, Evan & Gordon included, when the season was long lost & we were a bottom 6 team. We even played them the last few games directly before the trade (including wins vs. Nets & Suns ) despite the risk of injury. We played all the vets after the trade too, resulting in wins at Clippers, New Orleans & Chicago. After the Chi win, we shut all the vets down, except Harris & basically have only players on rookie contracts & g-leaquers. Pretty much a full OKC. But thats only the case, in the last 5 games. The 5-10 games before, we started sitting 1 or 2 every game only.
But i'm not sure we keep them out much longer. In case we bring MCW, Ennis & T-Ross back, i can see us winning 2-3 more games.

Btw You guys have a fun young team already. Watched Killian here in Germany already & was a fan.
Good luck, maybe we get both a top 4 pick

[bstein14]

Tied wins means sharing % odds and then the coin flip determines position if no one moves up.

I'd say its fairly likely we could end up with the same number of wins as OKC or Orlando so sharing a 3/4 or 4/5 spot in the standings also isn't the worst thing.

I actually think, based on looking at the remaining schedules, Detroit, OKC, and Orlando could all finish with 21 wins which would average out the %s of the 3/4/5 spots assuming Minny only finishes with 20 wins.

If I had to put #s on the final records right now, based on remaining schedules and how teams are currently playing, it'd look like this.

1. Houston 16 wins (1 more win this season)
2. Minnesota 20 wins (3 more wins this season)
3. Detroit 21 wins (3 more wins this season)
4. Orlando 21 wins (3 more wins this season)
5. OKC 21 wins (1 more win this season)

Obviously the Detroit/Orlando game on Monday May 3rd is quickly becoming the most important tank game remaining for us this season.

There's just no way Orlando gets 3 more wins. I'm having a hard time seeing them getting 1 win, they've checked out for the season.
The window for the Thunder to win a game is one of the Kings games with Fox out. Otherwise, it looks unlikely that they'll win a game. Kind of unreal, even with those depleted rosters, that it's realistic that the Magic and Thunder lose a combined 32 games in a row to end the season.

I'd also be really surprised if the Pistons only got 3 wins with that home heavy schedule but I suppose 3-8 isn't completely out of the realm of possibilities.

If Detroit beats Orlando then I could see Detroit with 4 wins and Orlando with 2. Orlando does have the most games remaining against other bottom 6 teams.

[NYPiston]

Yeah, it’s weird. The Thunder and Magic are undergoing as hard a tank job as I’ve ever seen despite the modified lottery odds.

If the goal of changing the odds was to deincentivize tanking then it appears to have failed based on the last couple of years. I still prefer these odds though.

Teams like them are a big reason why the new lottery system was put in place, to discourage blatant tanking. Nothing would please me more than OKC and Orlando falling down a few spots.

[Snakebites]

Yeah, it’s weird. The Thunder and Magic are undergoing as hard a tank job as I’ve ever seen despite the modified lottery odds.

If the goal of changing the odds was to deincentivize tanking then it appears to have failed based on the last couple of years. I still prefer these odds though.

Teams like them are a big reason why the new lottery system was put in place, to discourage blatant tanking. Nothing would please me more than OKC and Orlando falling down a few spots.

Agreed. It’s unfortunate I don’t believe in karma.

[Manocad]

At the very least, if you look at that list and think about who "deserves" a top pick (i.e. the "lottery gods" are lending some influence), Detroit looks like a pretty good candidate for getting thrown a bone.

[Invictus88]

I think there's still a very reasonable chance that we leapfrog Minnesota by the end of the year. That team has won 3 out of the last 5 games (Jazz, Heat, and Sacramento) and were close in a 4th.

I think they are all but guaranteed wins against Houston and Orlando. They still play us. And for any of the others there's a realistic chance they could steal a win or two.

Orlando scares me the most. I don't see them winning anything the rest of the year; Even if another team rests all of their starters it's still a coin flip versus the team that they are putting out there as of late.

OKC is just as bad. Thankfully we have two games in hand versus them but we've swept them in the season series.

I think we win against Orlando for sure. Minnesota and Chicago would be the tricky games left. If we take either of those or a surprise win elsewhere then we will end up tied with OKC and have the 4th or 5th worst record due to tiebreaks.

So TLDR, my estimates are:
1. Houston 15 wins - 0 wins the rest of season. They are hard-tanking right now (partially forced to due to covid) and were bad before.
2. Orlando 18 wins - 0 wins the rest of the season. They literally are a g-league team that is getting destroyed night in and night out.
3. Detroit 19 wins - 1 win against Orlando - Hope for Washington to falter to give Chicago hope for the play-in on May 9th. The Minnesota game on the 11th is huge.
4. OKC - 20 wins - 0 wins the rest of the season. Without SGA they are playing as bad as Orlando right now.
5. Minnesota - 20 wins - 3 wins (Houston, Orlando, and us or a random win against a good team)

I don't know how the tiebreak is done if we pick up another game and tie Minn and OKC at 20 wins. Does it degenerate to a w/l of total record in terms of all teams involved?

Relevant regular season records if we lose vs Minn:
DET 2 vs OKC 0
MINN 2 vs DET 0
OKC 2 vs MINN 1

Final standings:
OKC: 2-3 (3rd)
DET: 2-2 (4th)
MIN: 3-2 (5th)

If we were to win against Minn and end at 20 it becomes:
MIN: 2-3 (3rd)
OKC: 2-3 (4th)
DET: 3-2 (5th)

[zeebneeb]

If the Pistons only win one more game(hopefully not against the Wolves)they should easily have at least the third worst record, maybe even the 2nd. Losing to the Wolves, and Magic would be ideal.

[Manocad]

Tied teams both get the average of the odds across the board for the two positions. So if three teams tie for third-worst record (the 3rd, 4th and 5th positions assuming one team was worst and one team was second worst), all three teams get the average of the 3rd, 4th and 5th odds at each draft position.

[tmorgan]

For what it’s worth to those lamenting the tank-a-thon, it’s always like this, every year. We just weren’t quite bad enough or anywhere near smart enough to take part. Now we are. If you hate it, close your eyes and it’ll be over soon. Still enjoying it, personally, although it sucks Killian doesn’t play more games.

[440BB]

It would be interesting if we end up in a four way tie for second worst record. Four fan bases complaining "If we just lost one more game..."

[Invictus88]

Tied teams both get the average of the odds across the board for the two positions. So if three teams tie for third-worst record (the 3rd, 4th and 5th positions assuming one team was worst and one team was second worst), all three teams get the average of the 3rd, 4th and 5th odds at each draft position.

I'm worried less about odds and more about ordering after ping pong balls are picked. (Of those who follow)

[Invictus88]

If the Pistons only win one more game(hopefully not against the Wolves)they should easily have at least the third worst record, maybe even the 2nd. Losing to the Wolves, and Magic would be ideal.

See my above post.

[The Moose]

i think we'll end up with 21-22 wins. Hopefully should be enough to stay clear of the Cavs, perhaps a long shot at Wolves still finishing the season very strong, but its very slim chance we can keep up with the magic or thunder.

[MotownMadness]

This is some bull

[The Moose]

This is some bull

there isnt much we can do besides start running our own okc/magic style lineup for major minutes.
a lineup like:

Lee
Sirvydis
Cook
Sekou
Jahlil

Can't see that happening though