Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

[tmorgan]

So, this is what we pretty much know, if we stay second worst (fingers crossed):

Cade is going first no matter who ends up with the pick. Chance it’s us: 14%.

Second, third and fourth is a bit of a mystery. Our chances at each pick: 13.4%, 12.7%, 12% (cumulative lottery ball picked chance, a shade over 52%, same for the three bottom three teams if not tied with fourth worst team). There are teams in this range with different wants and needs, depending on how it shakes out. Minny would likely prefer Suggs. Oklahoma City probably prefers Mobley. Houston is likely Green or Suggs. There will probably be at least one unexpected jumper with their own set of preferences. Our priority list is likely Green, Mobley, Suggs, but there’s a decent chance we could get Green even if we pick 4th.

Oddly, after that uncertainty, it’s very likely Kuminga goes 5th, as he’s the consensus fifth big talent in the draft, but he’s also the biggest project of the five. I’ll be disappointed if we end up here, but it’s actually our most likely outcome by the percentages. It happens if the lottery balls go Houston and three other teams. Chance it’s us: 27.8%.

Our basement is the 6th pick, which happens if neither Houston nor Detroit get lotto luck. From recent intel, we like Bouknight, but yuck... he reminds me way to much of Kevin Knox. This would be depressing for sure. Chance we end up here: 20%.

Pray hard, people. 1/5 we get shafted, and another 1/4+ of the time we end up with another big project that will likely be like Killian, with a lot of work to do. The other half+ is good times.

[edmunder_prc]

Mobley is a strange guy, but is he a lock for Chris Bosh or better?

Stewart seems like a decent player. He has clear positives and clear negatives. Can Stewart, Mobley and a bigger SF like Grant all player together?

Could Mobley switch on to a wing like Kawhi or Tatum?

Suggs is another issue.

Can Hayes and Suggs play together? Hayes doesnt have much offense and really neither does Suggs. Suggs is Marcus Smart type. Hayes is what? Rondo with less shooting?

Lots of odd fits except for Cade or Green who slot into SG.

[A_dub06]

:lol:
So let me see if I have this right...we’ve got someone whining that Casey is going to screw up the tank by trying hard to win, and when I point out that since the Pistons have the second worst record there’s little evidence to support that idea, the answer is that the second worst record is because the team sucks and has nothing to do with Casey.

Now read that again, really slowly, and see if you can identify why that argument buries itself.

We have the 2nd worst record due to the our past gm’s roster construction and weavers, that had nothing to do with Casey. Bad rosters will lose many games by virtue of their lack of talent or inexperience. Bad rosters can still win some games, and when it’s close this late in the season to truly tank your coach NEEDS to be on board with that since it’s basically a game of chicken of who can put out the worst lineups and setups to fail while the prize at the end of the road is draft lottery standings.

My initial post was about we need to be worried since the margin is so close and I don’t think Casey is committed to tanking. What I saw against the magic was inexperienced players learning via trial by fire but even if it was tanking, using one game as the basis for concluding Casey supports us tanking is flimsy at best.

Let me try it this way since you still don't see the contradiction in your argument.

If the reason the Pistons have the second worst record is because of their roster, and not due to Casey being committed to the tank (or not committed to it),

THEN

IT

DOESN'T

MATTER

WHAT

CASEY'S

COMMITMENT

IS.

Get it now? You can't claim that Casey is going to screw up the tank, i.e. have an impact on the team record, then go on to say that the current second worst record is because of Weaver/the roster and nothing to do with Casey, i.e. he has no impact on the team record. Pick one or the other; it can't be both.

But it can be both. If Grant is available or the other vets and play heavy minutes over the younger players which should be developed at this point, is that not Casey ruining our tank? Bad rosters can still not rank correctly, he’ll we did it with SVG for a long time. If our roster was better we wouldn’t be such a bad team, but we are bad, and can still win the remaining games since other teams could be more aggressive with their tank whether that be with coaching or gym decisions. It’s not black and white like you are making out and there is two different controls being coaching and gm decisions. Let’s see how the next couple of games go, if the vets play heavy and down the stretch when they are available, that is not tanking...

[440BB]

I think Casey has done a pretty masterful job of keeping the vets engaged while stealth tanking. Lots of development and still playing hard regardless of the outcome. The record speaks for itself.

[Manocad]

We have the 2nd worst record due to the our past gm’s roster construction and weavers, that had nothing to do with Casey. Bad rosters will lose many games by virtue of their lack of talent or inexperience. Bad rosters can still win some games, and when it’s close this late in the season to truly tank your coach NEEDS to be on board with that since it’s basically a game of chicken of who can put out the worst lineups and setups to fail while the prize at the end of the road is draft lottery standings.

My initial post was about we need to be worried since the margin is so close and I don’t think Casey is committed to tanking. What I saw against the magic was inexperienced players learning via trial by fire but even if it was tanking, using one game as the basis for concluding Casey supports us tanking is flimsy at best.

Let me try it this way since you still don't see the contradiction in your argument.

If the reason the Pistons have the second worst record is because of their roster, and not due to Casey being committed to the tank (or not committed to it),

THEN

IT

DOESN'T

MATTER

WHAT

CASEY'S

COMMITMENT

IS.

Get it now? You can't claim that Casey is going to screw up the tank, i.e. have an impact on the team record, then go on to say that the current second worst record is because of Weaver/the roster and nothing to do with Casey, i.e. he has no impact on the team record. Pick one or the other; it can't be both.

But it can be both. If Grant is available or the other vets and play heavy minutes over the younger players which should be developed at this point, is that not Casey ruining our tank? Bad rosters can still not rank correctly, he’ll we did it with SVG for a long time. If our roster was better we wouldn’t be such a bad team, but we are bad, and can still win the remaining games since other teams could be more aggressive with their tank whether that be with coaching or gym decisions. It’s not black and white like you are making out and there is two different controls being coaching and gm decisions. Let’s see how the next couple of games go, if the vets play heavy and down the stretch when they are available, that is not tanking...

We're not dealing in "if" anymore--only you are. The fact remains that with 6 games left the Pistons have the second worst record in the NBA. If you don't want to think Casey had any part in that happening, fine. But you have no evidence to support the idea that Casey is going to suddenly do things that will cause wins at a higher rate in these last 6 games than he did over the previous 66. Especially when, as you say, the roster controls the wins and losses, not Casey. And if you honestly believe that Casey will have a roster available in these last 6 games that will be BETTER than any roster previously available that lead to the second worst record over 66 games, you should stop smoking whatever it is you're smoking.

And what SVG did has no bearing in any way whatsoever.

[DetroitSho]

Let me try it this way since you still don't see the contradiction in your argument.

If the reason the Pistons have the second worst record is because of their roster, and not due to Casey being committed to the tank (or not committed to it),

THEN

IT

DOESN'T

MATTER

WHAT

CASEY'S

COMMITMENT

IS.

Get it now? You can't claim that Casey is going to screw up the tank, i.e. have an impact on the team record, then go on to say that the current second worst record is because of Weaver/the roster and nothing to do with Casey, i.e. he has no impact on the team record. Pick one or the other; it can't be both.

But it can be both. If Grant is available or the other vets and play heavy minutes over the younger players which should be developed at this point, is that not Casey ruining our tank? Bad rosters can still not rank correctly, he’ll we did it with SVG for a long time. If our roster was better we wouldn’t be such a bad team, but we are bad, and can still win the remaining games since other teams could be more aggressive with their tank whether that be with coaching or gym decisions. It’s not black and white like you are making out and there is two different controls being coaching and gm decisions. Let’s see how the next couple of games go, if the vets play heavy and down the stretch when they are available, that is not tanking...

We're not dealing in "if" anymore--only you are. The fact remains that with 6 games left the Pistons have the second worst record in the NBA. If you don't want to think Casey had any part in that happening, fine. But you have no evidence to support the idea that Casey is going to suddenly do things that will cause wins at a higher rate in these last 6 games than he did over the previous 66. Especially when, as you say, the roster controls the wins and losses, not Casey. And if you honestly believe that Casey will have a roster available in these last 6 games that will be BETTER than any roster previously available that lead to the second worst record over 66 games, you should stop smoking whatever it is you're smoking.

And what SVG did has no bearing in any way whatsoever.

I'm crying right now

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

[Manocad]

not if you watched the game

Whether or not I watched the game, which I did, has nothing to do with Orlando fans being salty about being out-tanked. You're griping about the Pistons playing like they didn't want to win because you didn't want the Magic to win.

i didn't want to win...there is that....but then there is what i saw at the end of that game which i've never seen a professional team do in my life....at that point it isn't about tanking it's about whether you have heart or not...i mean you guys were down 6 with plenty of time left and just quit like i've never seen a team quit....i mean hurray for you i guess...it doesn't matter really since Houston out-tanked everybody

Yeah, that was some real heart your Magic just showed in a 36 point blowout against the Celtics, at home no less. Were Gary Harris and Cole Anthony intentionally missing shots? What an absolutely pathetic effort yet you want to call out the Pistons for lack of heart due to a couple of bad plays at the end of a 6 point game?

[Manocad]

But it can be both. If Grant is available or the other vets and play heavy minutes over the younger players which should be developed at this point, is that not Casey ruining our tank? Bad rosters can still not rank correctly, he’ll we did it with SVG for a long time. If our roster was better we wouldn’t be such a bad team, but we are bad, and can still win the remaining games since other teams could be more aggressive with their tank whether that be with coaching or gym decisions. It’s not black and white like you are making out and there is two different controls being coaching and gm decisions. Let’s see how the next couple of games go, if the vets play heavy and down the stretch when they are available, that is not tanking...

We're not dealing in "if" anymore--only you are. The fact remains that with 6 games left the Pistons have the second worst record in the NBA. If you don't want to think Casey had any part in that happening, fine. But you have no evidence to support the idea that Casey is going to suddenly do things that will cause wins at a higher rate in these last 6 games than he did over the previous 66. Especially when, as you say, the roster controls the wins and losses, not Casey. And if you honestly believe that Casey will have a roster available in these last 6 games that will be BETTER than any roster previously available that lead to the second worst record over 66 games, you should stop smoking whatever it is you're smoking.

And what SVG did has no bearing in any way whatsoever.

I'm crying right now

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

Like Wayne Brady said--"Sometimes you just gotta..."
Well, you know the rest.

[zeebneeb]

Wolves in a tight game people. They win, we can all take a breath for the #2 seed of terribleness.

[chrbal]

i didn't want to win...there is that....but then there is what i saw at the end of that game which i've never seen a professional team do in my life....at that point it isn't about tanking it's about whether you have heart or not...i mean you guys were down 6 with plenty of time left and just quit like i've never seen a team quit....i mean hurray for you i guess...it doesn't matter really since Houston out-tanked everybody

So if I’m reading this correctly a fan of the Magic is trying to call out the pistons for not showing heart? What’s next? A Kings fan saying Detroit doesn’t know how to run an organization?

Type in “jazz vs magic april 3 2021” on google

And tell me about the heart, pride, and dedication the magic showed in that game

[The Moose]

damn Minny loses a close one to Memphis who we are playing tomorrow.

hopefully the grizzlies still have some juice in the tank tomorrow

[Snakebites]

Tough day today. Absolutely no help for the tank.

Ah well. Most games aren't going to help us when everyone is trying to lose.

For whatever it's worth, five thirty eight has us finishing second worse, but it's assuming the following:

Minny wins 3 more games
OKC, Cleveland, and Orlando each win 1 more game
We win 2 more games.

That all feels wrong.

[Snakebites]

Whether or not I watched the game, which I did, has nothing to do with Orlando fans being salty about being out-tanked. You're griping about the Pistons playing like they didn't want to win because you didn't want the Magic to win.

i didn't want to win...there is that....but then there is what i saw at the end of that game which i've never seen a professional team do in my life....at that point it isn't about tanking it's about whether you have heart or not...i mean you guys were down 6 with plenty of time left and just quit like i've never seen a team quit....i mean hurray for you i guess...it doesn't matter really since Houston out-tanked everybody

Yeah, that was some real heart your Magic just showed in a 36 point blowout against the Celtics, at home no less. Were Gary Harris and Cole Anthony intentionally missing shots? What an absolutely pathetic effort yet you want to call out the Pistons for lack of heart due to a couple of bad plays at the end of a 6 point game?

Honestly, I'd criticize this guy for coming on our board and carrying on this way despite wanting his team to lose too...but I'd probably be whinging in similar fashion if we'd won that game.

Still, the whole "we wanted to lose too, but we're trying to lose the RIGHT WAY, you took it too far" stance is kind of cringeworthy. I'd like to think I wouldn't take that stance in his shoes, but I guess one never knows.

[The Moose]

Tough day today. Absolutely no help for the tank.

Ah well. Most games aren't going to help us when everyone is trying to lose.

For whatever it's worth, five thirty eight has us finishing second worse, but it's assuming the following:

Minny wins 3 more games
OKC, Cleveland, and Orlando each win 1 more game
We win 2 more games.

That all feels wrong.

I think Minny wins at least 2 more, and wouldnt be surprised if OKC, Cleveland and Orlando lose out.
We very well could win 2
Could be a 2/3/4/5 tie which would be crazy

[Snakebites]

Tough day today. Absolutely no help for the tank.

Ah well. Most games aren't going to help us when everyone is trying to lose.

For whatever it's worth, five thirty eight has us finishing second worse, but it's assuming the following:

Minny wins 3 more games
OKC, Cleveland, and Orlando each win 1 more game
We win 2 more games.

That all feels wrong.

I think Minny wins at least 2 more, and wouldnt be surprised if OKC, Cleveland and Orlando lose out.
We very well could win 2
Could be a 2/3/4/5 tie which would be crazy

I have a hard time believing ALL of those teams lose out though. Somebody will win something...probably.

[ducler]

Pistons will be without Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph, Hamidou Diallo, Josh Jackson, Rodney McGruder and Dennis Smith Jr. against Grizzlies.
Wayne Ellington is questionable for this game.

Projected rotation:
Stewart/Okafor
Doumbouya/Cook
Bey/Sirvydis
Ellington/Jackson
Hayes/Lee

[Pharaoh]

I know some will hate this but:

It feels good to know we finally have a smarter FO & coaching staff!

Suffered long enough!

Fingers crossed we finally get some Lotto luck.

Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM mobile app

[DBC10]

Pistons will be without Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph, Hamidou Diallo, Josh Jackson, Rodney McGruder and Dennis Smith Jr. against Grizzlies.
Wayne Ellington is questionable for this game.

Projected rotation:
Stewart/Okafor
Doumbouya/Cook
Bey/Sirvydis
Ellington/Jackson
Hayes/Lee

Diallo was too clutch for us channeling past great shooting guards like that last game. So he's definitely on the hook for a "knee contusion" which I'm glad he is

We still haven't fully played our trump card in giving Sirvydis 20 minutes a night. That's the one to look out for

[zeebneeb]

Pistons will be without Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph, Hamidou Diallo, Josh Jackson, Rodney McGruder and Dennis Smith Jr. against Grizzlies.
Wayne Ellington is questionable for this game.

Projected rotation:
Stewart/Okafor
Doumbouya/Cook
Bey/Sirvydis
Ellington/Jackson
Hayes/Lee

You know Weaver was sweating bullets as Diallo was going nuts that last game.

*Phone chirps* Casey looks at phone

Weavs-"Knee contusion"

Casey texts Stewart-" Grab a baseball bat and meet me in the lockeroom Beef."

Casey-"Hey Diallo, let's go over some plays in the lockeroom"

[NYPiston]

Tough day today. Absolutely no help for the tank.

Ah well. Most games aren't going to help us when everyone is trying to lose.

For whatever it's worth, five thirty eight has us finishing second worse, but it's assuming the following:

Minny wins 3 more games
OKC, Cleveland, and Orlando each win 1 more game
We win 2 more games.

That all feels wrong.

The Pistons are in control of their destiny, that's the bottom line.

As I mentioned earlier, they can go 1-5 with the one win being against anybody but the Wolves and they clinch 2nd.
They clinch 3rd at worst if they go 1-5 with that win being against the Wolves so they have a buffer of 1 win to clinch bottom three.

Something tells me that they'll squeak out 2 wins (tonight's game is a bit concerning) but it's all on the Pistons now. The OOT scoreboard is irrelevant if the Pistons do what they need to do. 1-5 is fairly realistic. Lose the next 5 and the last game against Miami doesn't even matter.