This team's needs and directions?
Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:48 pm
This is arguably our most important offseason we've had in a long time. We have some good young pieces coupled with a lottery pick (because there's a chance we won't have one in 2014) and cap space. However, we don't know where we're picking and most importantly we don't have a head coach yet. So yeah it is too early to speculate which direction the Pistons are want to go, but we're at the point of the season where there's nothing better to do but come up with ideal scenarios as fans.
Our head coach is going to dictate the style of basketball we play. Are we going to be a defense first oriented team and play a half court style offense because we have two good bigs or are we going to push the tempo and try to get easy buckets in transition with Drummond protecting the paint? We need players that fit our system, not just a team of players who could maybe mesh well after years of experimenting. Building team chemistry is just as important as finding the right personnel.
Our number one strength is obviously we have potentially a front court that other teams will have a hard time matching up with. Monroe has proven to be capable of holding his own but his flaws are exposed due to the lack of talent surrounding him. Thankfully we have Drummond, who could be a great front court partner for Monroe, or any big man really. Drummond is defensive minded (or just has no offensive game yet) while Monroe is an excellent offensive player who can score and pass with the best of them but is no defensive anchor. However, until Monroe can develop a consistent mid range jumper, I'm not sure if this front court can reach its full potential. Despite Monroe being capable of playing at the high post as a distributor ala Gasol, teams that have two good/great post players all have something in common. Atleast one of the bigmen can shoot a 18 foot jump shot. Look at Kevin Love,David West, David Lee, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Pau Gasol, Carlos Boozer. All of these players(except Ibaka) have a good complementing low post threat while they're capable of stretching the floor and create the spacing needed for players to drive. That is where our problem could lie in the front court. Monroe is most effective in the low block and Drummond is a finisher who will score off offensive rebounds and alleyoops. Since Drummond is ineffective outside of 5 feets, Monroe needs to be a threat outside the paint. Found this interesting stat, "Monroe has attempted 151 mid-to-long-range jumpers this season, almost twice as many as he took last season. He's shooting just 33 percent from that distance, and that helps explain why his field goal percentage has dropped from over 52 to under 48 percent this season." If Monroe doesn't develop a consistent jumper, the paint will be clogged making it harder for players to drive in the paint. Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan is the exception but look at how much success the Clippers have had in the post season. So if Monroe can't pressure defenses to guard him outside of 18 feet, defenses will sag off him, making him shoot. If this continues to be a problem do we end up trading one of them to create more spacing and go with a stretch 4 like a Melo, Battier, Jeff Green type lineup and put Monroe and/or Drummond at the 5? I guess it all depends on the style of play, including the type of point guard (unselfish pass first or score first) and the personnel that comes with it.
My next big concern is the need of a quality 2/3 that can give us consistent minutes on both sides of the ball. This is where I think we should look to the draft, even though its considered a weak draft. I would love to have a top 8 pick in 2014 because it's projected to be a ridiculously deep class over a top 3 pick in 2013, but that is a different topic. Ben McLemore would be great fit because he's hit some big time shots and definitely has the potential to be an allstar although he struggled during the tournament. Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter, and Shabazz Muhammed(
terrible college career, although that doesn't necessarily translate to the pro level) could be good fits too, in that order. If not, I wouldn't mind settling for Trey Burke or a big guy as we could address the need of a quality wing player in free agency. We need Ben McLemore as finding a shooting guard of his caliber and potential is going to be extremely difficult. The shooting guard position is definitely the hardest position to fill, especially if you're looking for an allstar/elite level player and we need just that to help our big guys out down low. This is another reason why it's too difficult where to gauge which direction we are heading as a team because the draft is such a huge part of the offseason, obviously.
Let's say theoretically we go with the latter because all the wing players we want are taken. So now what? Do we go after Andre Iguodola, who is a good all around player but lacks a consistent/good 3 point shot? I'd say trade the pick. I read in a Bill Simmons article, who I can not stand but makes a valid point, that wing players need these three traits: athleticism, defense, and a 3point shot. We desperately need that type of player, but I'm not sure if we can find one in free agency who has all three. Iggy is the closest thing that comes to mind, but do we want to overpay to get him? It would be the closest thing to a perimeter superstar we've had in years. Tony Allen can't shoot to save his life but is athletic and is arguably the best perimeter defender in the league, Corey Brewer was in the right system which is why he had a good year in my opinion but is overrated, JJ Reddick will probably look for an established playoff contending team and Matt Barnes is most likely staying with the clippers. That leaves us with Dorrell Wright, Nick Young and JR Smith, who to me are all candidates for being a cancer type player for this team. I'd settle for Dorrell Wright out of the 3 but is probably the least consistent out of them offensively and all three really aren't great defenders. Tyreke Evans may be our best bet, but he's shown no signs of improvement, and has no 3 point shot and I'm not sure how I feel about OJ Mayo, but I feel like he's going to stick with Dallas. Finally, if Paul Pierce is bought out, I'd say we have a 0.1% chance of signing him. Maybe it'd be easier to find find a specialist in either defense or threes.
If we fail to address our wing needs, there's a decent 2014 FA class, IF we choose to not spend a ton of money this offseason. There is absolutely no way we trade for a good wing player because we have no other assets outside of Monroe, Drummond, Knight, and our pick. I'm fine with trading the pick as long as we know we can't get McLemore.
My last point is what is our point guard situation going to be? I think it can be argued that the point guard position is the most important position, but also the deepest position in the NBA. There are many great/solid point guards in this league and it shouldn't be too hard to find a good one. The most important is whether he fits our style of play. Calderon would be a GREAT fit for this team if he was 5 years younger and not the biggest defensive liability ever at the point guard position next to Steve Nash. But he brings enough to the table so I guess it would be ok to have opposing point guards meeting Drummond in the paint. Also, what is Brandon Knight's preferred position, the point or two? Screw it and have him come off the bench as a 6th man like Jamal Crawford?
To quickly summarize, this off season and our next season is critical in determining the Pistons next 5 years. Will the Monroe/Drummond front court be a success in the right system? If not, do we trade one of them? If we do it's probably Monroe as he's due for an extension soon. Can we please grab a quality wing player whether its through FA or the draft. Is Calderon the point guard for this team? Do we amnesty that piece of shiet, waste of a roster spot Charlie V or just wait til his contract expires. I almost feel the same way about Rodney Stuckey. Actually, this bum has to go as well. Finally, please don't resign Maxiell and Bynum. If we do resign Bynum, it has to be for cheap. We need to get rid of these players and build a new foundation with Drummond, Monroe, and Knight.
I have no idea how Joe is going to approach this off season and neither do we. What area should we fix first? Really, what is our best plan of attack for this offseason? I think only Atlanta, Dallas, and us have significant cap space this season, and have no idea which teams have contracts expiring in 2014. Are we going to be huge players in this off season and try to get a big name? Or are we going overpay to sign a bunch of mediocre players?
So now the fun part...some scenarios for this team:
1. Joe Dumars absolutely fks it and gets fired at the end of the season. We mess up in the draft, surprise surprise, and get literally nothing in this already weak draft. To make things worse, we slightly overpay for a bunch of players giving us no flexibility for years to come and literally no free agents ever want to play for Detroit. Joe also decides Maxiell is our first free agent signing. In addition, Monroe and Drummond is an OK tandem, but not what we thought it would be. To top it all off, our next coach goes 20-62 and we fire this guy, leaving us searching for our 5th coach in 7 years. That's just off the top, but it's probably close. Not only do we attract no free agents, but no coach ever wants to come here because he'll just be the scapegoat anyways.
2. Joe Dumars absolutely fks it in the draft, but sign players for one year deals giving us flexibility for the 2014 off season. So we're just mostly screwed, not completely. The only reason why we are somewhat relevant in the 2014 off season is because we have a lottery pick in a great draft class, Monroe and Drummond are effective together, we have some cap space again and we have a respectable coach. I wouldn't be too mad at this scenario. Plus Stuckey and Charlie V wouldn't be on the team in the 2014 off season so our team doesn't look like under average hoopers. Just average. As fans, we know there is absolutely no way we screw up our next off season..right?
3. We draft one of the wing players I mentioned above, sign another good wing player, and sign a 3rd bigman. We're finally in the playoffs but get knocked out in the 2nd round.
4. Joe Dumars is the best GM of all time and proves everyone wrong with a little bit of option 2 and 3 I guess. But we still need to "tank" it this year giving us a top 8 pick in the draft. We draft one of the wing players, sign a couple players to one year deals in the offseason while giving us a chance to get someone good in the summer of 2014 as well.
Our 2014 roster looks something like this:
Calderon(one year deal)/Knight/Bynum
Oladipo/Knight/Singler
Corey Brewer (one year deal)/Singler
Monroe/someone we draft hopefully in the 2nd round or free agency/Jerebko
Drummond/same guy we draft or sign/that big Euro center
The rest of our lineup consists of English, Middleton and some other guys who really don't make any impact. We essentially miss the playoffs again but we get the 8th pick in the 2014 draft, hoping we get great value in a deep draft. And then we sign Eric Bledsoe in the off season while signing some veterans to fill out our bench. Seems like an entertaining line up at the very least. Develop a young group of guys and then we have an all star come to Detroit, for once.
I understand that the chances of signing Calderon and Brewer to one year deals is very low as players these days want long term deals and financial stability. I also understand that the chances of this happening is very low but I'm going to dream. Ultimately, scenario 1 happens.
Edit: To find a good wing via trade is going to be too difficult because we have no assets outside of Monroe, Drummond, Knight(if he is even considered an asset), and our lottery pick this year. With that said, I was thinking maybe now is the time to trade Monroe.
Sign Paul Milsap or Al Jefferson to a long term deal as both players have a better chance to co exist with Drummond. And we realistically won't land McLemore so we go ahead and sign Tony Allen.
Monroe and our pick for Bradley Beal?
Knight
Beal
Tony Allen
Millsap
Drummond
I still want to be bad enough where we could keep our lottery pick for 2014 but this line up for the next 5 years doesn't seem too bad.
Our head coach is going to dictate the style of basketball we play. Are we going to be a defense first oriented team and play a half court style offense because we have two good bigs or are we going to push the tempo and try to get easy buckets in transition with Drummond protecting the paint? We need players that fit our system, not just a team of players who could maybe mesh well after years of experimenting. Building team chemistry is just as important as finding the right personnel.
Our number one strength is obviously we have potentially a front court that other teams will have a hard time matching up with. Monroe has proven to be capable of holding his own but his flaws are exposed due to the lack of talent surrounding him. Thankfully we have Drummond, who could be a great front court partner for Monroe, or any big man really. Drummond is defensive minded (or just has no offensive game yet) while Monroe is an excellent offensive player who can score and pass with the best of them but is no defensive anchor. However, until Monroe can develop a consistent mid range jumper, I'm not sure if this front court can reach its full potential. Despite Monroe being capable of playing at the high post as a distributor ala Gasol, teams that have two good/great post players all have something in common. Atleast one of the bigmen can shoot a 18 foot jump shot. Look at Kevin Love,David West, David Lee, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Pau Gasol, Carlos Boozer. All of these players(except Ibaka) have a good complementing low post threat while they're capable of stretching the floor and create the spacing needed for players to drive. That is where our problem could lie in the front court. Monroe is most effective in the low block and Drummond is a finisher who will score off offensive rebounds and alleyoops. Since Drummond is ineffective outside of 5 feets, Monroe needs to be a threat outside the paint. Found this interesting stat, "Monroe has attempted 151 mid-to-long-range jumpers this season, almost twice as many as he took last season. He's shooting just 33 percent from that distance, and that helps explain why his field goal percentage has dropped from over 52 to under 48 percent this season." If Monroe doesn't develop a consistent jumper, the paint will be clogged making it harder for players to drive in the paint. Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan is the exception but look at how much success the Clippers have had in the post season. So if Monroe can't pressure defenses to guard him outside of 18 feet, defenses will sag off him, making him shoot. If this continues to be a problem do we end up trading one of them to create more spacing and go with a stretch 4 like a Melo, Battier, Jeff Green type lineup and put Monroe and/or Drummond at the 5? I guess it all depends on the style of play, including the type of point guard (unselfish pass first or score first) and the personnel that comes with it.
My next big concern is the need of a quality 2/3 that can give us consistent minutes on both sides of the ball. This is where I think we should look to the draft, even though its considered a weak draft. I would love to have a top 8 pick in 2014 because it's projected to be a ridiculously deep class over a top 3 pick in 2013, but that is a different topic. Ben McLemore would be great fit because he's hit some big time shots and definitely has the potential to be an allstar although he struggled during the tournament. Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter, and Shabazz Muhammed(
terrible college career, although that doesn't necessarily translate to the pro level) could be good fits too, in that order. If not, I wouldn't mind settling for Trey Burke or a big guy as we could address the need of a quality wing player in free agency. We need Ben McLemore as finding a shooting guard of his caliber and potential is going to be extremely difficult. The shooting guard position is definitely the hardest position to fill, especially if you're looking for an allstar/elite level player and we need just that to help our big guys out down low. This is another reason why it's too difficult where to gauge which direction we are heading as a team because the draft is such a huge part of the offseason, obviously. Let's say theoretically we go with the latter because all the wing players we want are taken. So now what? Do we go after Andre Iguodola, who is a good all around player but lacks a consistent/good 3 point shot? I'd say trade the pick. I read in a Bill Simmons article, who I can not stand but makes a valid point, that wing players need these three traits: athleticism, defense, and a 3point shot. We desperately need that type of player, but I'm not sure if we can find one in free agency who has all three. Iggy is the closest thing that comes to mind, but do we want to overpay to get him? It would be the closest thing to a perimeter superstar we've had in years. Tony Allen can't shoot to save his life but is athletic and is arguably the best perimeter defender in the league, Corey Brewer was in the right system which is why he had a good year in my opinion but is overrated, JJ Reddick will probably look for an established playoff contending team and Matt Barnes is most likely staying with the clippers. That leaves us with Dorrell Wright, Nick Young and JR Smith, who to me are all candidates for being a cancer type player for this team. I'd settle for Dorrell Wright out of the 3 but is probably the least consistent out of them offensively and all three really aren't great defenders. Tyreke Evans may be our best bet, but he's shown no signs of improvement, and has no 3 point shot and I'm not sure how I feel about OJ Mayo, but I feel like he's going to stick with Dallas. Finally, if Paul Pierce is bought out, I'd say we have a 0.1% chance of signing him. Maybe it'd be easier to find find a specialist in either defense or threes.
If we fail to address our wing needs, there's a decent 2014 FA class, IF we choose to not spend a ton of money this offseason. There is absolutely no way we trade for a good wing player because we have no other assets outside of Monroe, Drummond, Knight, and our pick. I'm fine with trading the pick as long as we know we can't get McLemore.
My last point is what is our point guard situation going to be? I think it can be argued that the point guard position is the most important position, but also the deepest position in the NBA. There are many great/solid point guards in this league and it shouldn't be too hard to find a good one. The most important is whether he fits our style of play. Calderon would be a GREAT fit for this team if he was 5 years younger and not the biggest defensive liability ever at the point guard position next to Steve Nash. But he brings enough to the table so I guess it would be ok to have opposing point guards meeting Drummond in the paint. Also, what is Brandon Knight's preferred position, the point or two? Screw it and have him come off the bench as a 6th man like Jamal Crawford?
To quickly summarize, this off season and our next season is critical in determining the Pistons next 5 years. Will the Monroe/Drummond front court be a success in the right system? If not, do we trade one of them? If we do it's probably Monroe as he's due for an extension soon. Can we please grab a quality wing player whether its through FA or the draft. Is Calderon the point guard for this team? Do we amnesty that piece of shiet, waste of a roster spot Charlie V or just wait til his contract expires. I almost feel the same way about Rodney Stuckey. Actually, this bum has to go as well. Finally, please don't resign Maxiell and Bynum. If we do resign Bynum, it has to be for cheap. We need to get rid of these players and build a new foundation with Drummond, Monroe, and Knight.
I have no idea how Joe is going to approach this off season and neither do we. What area should we fix first? Really, what is our best plan of attack for this offseason? I think only Atlanta, Dallas, and us have significant cap space this season, and have no idea which teams have contracts expiring in 2014. Are we going to be huge players in this off season and try to get a big name? Or are we going overpay to sign a bunch of mediocre players?
So now the fun part...some scenarios for this team:
1. Joe Dumars absolutely fks it and gets fired at the end of the season. We mess up in the draft, surprise surprise, and get literally nothing in this already weak draft. To make things worse, we slightly overpay for a bunch of players giving us no flexibility for years to come and literally no free agents ever want to play for Detroit. Joe also decides Maxiell is our first free agent signing. In addition, Monroe and Drummond is an OK tandem, but not what we thought it would be. To top it all off, our next coach goes 20-62 and we fire this guy, leaving us searching for our 5th coach in 7 years. That's just off the top, but it's probably close. Not only do we attract no free agents, but no coach ever wants to come here because he'll just be the scapegoat anyways.
2. Joe Dumars absolutely fks it in the draft, but sign players for one year deals giving us flexibility for the 2014 off season. So we're just mostly screwed, not completely. The only reason why we are somewhat relevant in the 2014 off season is because we have a lottery pick in a great draft class, Monroe and Drummond are effective together, we have some cap space again and we have a respectable coach. I wouldn't be too mad at this scenario. Plus Stuckey and Charlie V wouldn't be on the team in the 2014 off season so our team doesn't look like under average hoopers. Just average. As fans, we know there is absolutely no way we screw up our next off season..right?
3. We draft one of the wing players I mentioned above, sign another good wing player, and sign a 3rd bigman. We're finally in the playoffs but get knocked out in the 2nd round.
4. Joe Dumars is the best GM of all time and proves everyone wrong with a little bit of option 2 and 3 I guess. But we still need to "tank" it this year giving us a top 8 pick in the draft. We draft one of the wing players, sign a couple players to one year deals in the offseason while giving us a chance to get someone good in the summer of 2014 as well.
Our 2014 roster looks something like this:
Calderon(one year deal)/Knight/Bynum
Oladipo/Knight/Singler
Corey Brewer (one year deal)/Singler
Monroe/someone we draft hopefully in the 2nd round or free agency/Jerebko
Drummond/same guy we draft or sign/that big Euro center
The rest of our lineup consists of English, Middleton and some other guys who really don't make any impact. We essentially miss the playoffs again but we get the 8th pick in the 2014 draft, hoping we get great value in a deep draft. And then we sign Eric Bledsoe in the off season while signing some veterans to fill out our bench. Seems like an entertaining line up at the very least. Develop a young group of guys and then we have an all star come to Detroit, for once.
I understand that the chances of signing Calderon and Brewer to one year deals is very low as players these days want long term deals and financial stability. I also understand that the chances of this happening is very low but I'm going to dream. Ultimately, scenario 1 happens.
Edit: To find a good wing via trade is going to be too difficult because we have no assets outside of Monroe, Drummond, Knight(if he is even considered an asset), and our lottery pick this year. With that said, I was thinking maybe now is the time to trade Monroe.
Sign Paul Milsap or Al Jefferson to a long term deal as both players have a better chance to co exist with Drummond. And we realistically won't land McLemore so we go ahead and sign Tony Allen.
Monroe and our pick for Bradley Beal?
Knight
Beal
Tony Allen
Millsap
Drummond
I still want to be bad enough where we could keep our lottery pick for 2014 but this line up for the next 5 years doesn't seem too bad.