My Draft Tiers

[theBigLip]

Tier 1:
Nerlens Noel 18 C 6-11 206 Kentucky
Otto Porter 19 SF 6-8 200 Georgetown
Victor Oladipo 20 SG 6-5 214 Indiana

Tier 2:
Ben McLemore 20 SG 6-5 195 Kansas
Anthony Bennett 19 PF 6-8 240 UNLV
Alex Len 19 C 7-1 225 Maryland

Tier 3:
Trey Burke 20 PG 6-1 175 Michigan
C.J. McCollum 21 SG 6-3 190 Lehigh
Cody Zeller 20 C 6-11 210 Indiana
Michael Carter-Williams 21 PG 6-5 175 Syracuse

Tier 4:
Steven Adams 19 C 7-0 240 Pittsburgh
Kentavious Caldwell Pope 19 SG 6-5 205 Georgia
Shabazz Muhammad 19 SF 6-6 225 UCLA
Kelly Olynyk 21 C 7-0 238 Gonzaga
Dario Saric 18 SF 6-10 223 Croatia

If this holds true, Sactown starts Tier 3 with a PG, probably MCW, and then we should choose between Burke, McCollum or Zeller.

[Defor]

Very interesting. I hope it holds.

[theBigLip]

Very interesting. I hope it holds.

In some ways, I hope it doesn't hold, although in a specific way. If someone from Tier 3 or 4 gets picked in the top 6, it just means that someone good get's pushed down. I already think Sacramento will draft out of need instead of BPA, so helps us (as long as we don't want MCW or Burke, which s probably what they do).

[Brapman]

Just to be clear, using Ford's Tier system from the last couple of years (where he surveys GM's and scouts - not his personal opinion), there would be no Tier 1's this year, and I think no Tier 2's either. Your Tier 1 guys in this thread are, at best, Tier 3 guys.

I think we're looking at about 10 guys in this draft who are all borderline Tier 3/Tier 4 guys. The 3 guys who'll go 1-3 in this draft don't separate from the guys who'll go 4-10, IMO.

[ImHeisenberg]

Well said Brapman. There aren't any tier 1 players this year.

[joseph mamah]

I think hes talking about tiers in this draft.

[Clarity]

Tier's are stupid.

There are zero for sure things in this draft, literally every player has multiple question marks.

Aside from Noel being #1, I could see any of the next 9 going in any order. There is little difference between #2 & #10.

[theBigLip]

Just to be clear, using Ford's Tier system from the last couple of years (where he surveys GM's and scouts - not his personal opinion), there would be no Tier 1's this year, and I think no Tier 2's either. Your Tier 1 guys in this thread are, at best, Tier 3 guys.

I think we're looking at about 10 guys in this draft who are all borderline Tier 3/Tier 4 guys. The 3 guys who'll go 1-3 in this draft don't separate from the guys who'll go 4-10, IMO.

Just to be clear, I'm not using Tiers to compare this draft with previous drafts. Draft tiers are used as a strategy by most NBA GMs in order to make sure they don't f--k up and pick for need over BPA (best player available).

So you basically group players that you think are of similar skill level. Then when it comes to your time to draft, you always select players from the highest tier possible, but from within that tier, you may select someone that fits a particular position or team need that you have.

If you think Tiers are stupid, then the alternative is just "going with your gut instinct" on the spur of the moment when you are on the clock pretty much ensures you making a poor choice.

[Phenomenonsense]

Oladipo is at least a tier two on Ford's system in my opinion.

[theBigLip]

It's really not Ford's system although he certainly has his own tiers in his analysis.

Something from the ESPN Big Board on Oladipo that we may think he is worthy of Tier 1:

Oladipo had his first workout last week -- with the Suns. Oladipo's main competition at the workout was Shabazz Muhammad (Ben McLemore was also in Phoenix that day but declined to work out with Oladipo or Muhammad). By all accounts the Suns (like just about every other team) were impressed. Sources say that Oladipo has moved into the Cavs' conversation for the No. 1 pick and also is under heavy consideration from the Magic at No. 2. Sounds like it would be a surprise if he goes past the Suns at No. 5.

[Phenomenonsense]

It's really not Ford's system although he certainly has his own tiers in his analysis.

Something from the ESPN Big Board on Oladipo that we may think he is worthy of Tier 1:

Oladipo had his first workout last week -- with the Suns. Oladipo's main competition at the workout was Shabazz Muhammad (Ben McLemore was also in Phoenix that day but declined to work out with Oladipo or Muhammad). By all accounts the Suns (like just about every other team) were impressed. Sources say that Oladipo has moved into the Cavs' conversation for the No. 1 pick and also is under heavy consideration from the Magic at No. 2. Sounds like it would be a surprise if he goes past the Suns at No. 5.

Dipo is the only person worth taking #1 overall this draft unless the #1 overall team is the cavs and they're just going to win the lottery again next year and get wiggins. Then waiting for Noel isn't so bad.

[Jodi]

Dipo is the only person worth taking #1 overall this draft

You've bumped your little head if you honestly think Olapido is #1 pick material...

[HotelVitale]

The first three tiers look accurate to me, but there are some wild cards. Len could certainly go in the #5 range but he could fall to #10 or so. I wouldn't be surprised if some teams had Burke or MCW ranked above McLemore.

After the top ten, everything gets crazy. Bazz and Stephen Adams seem like they're still top-12 right now, but teams could easily go for someone like Gobert, Schroeder, Tony Mitchell, etc over them. I think it's anyone's guess what the order from #10-#25 looks like. The guys in that range all have almost interchangeable stock right now.

[Pharaoh]

Tier 1:
Nerlens Noel 18 C 6-11 206 Kentucky
Otto Porter 19 SF 6-8 200 Georgetown
Victor Oladipo 20 SG 6-5 214 Indiana

Tier 2:
Ben McLemore 20 SG 6-5 195 Kansas
Anthony Bennett 19 PF 6-8 240 UNLV
Alex Len 19 C 7-1 225 Maryland

Tier 3:
Trey Burke 20 PG 6-1 175 Michigan
C.J. McCollum 21 SG 6-3 190 Lehigh
Cody Zeller 20 C 6-11 210 Indiana
Michael Carter-Williams 21 PG 6-5 175 Syracuse

Tier 4:
Steven Adams 19 C 7-0 240 Pittsburgh
Kentavious Caldwell Pope 19 SG 6-5 205 Georgia
Shabazz Muhammad 19 SF 6-6 225 UCLA
Kelly Olynyk 21 C 7-0 238 Gonzaga
Dario Saric 18 SF 6-10 223 Croatia

If this holds true, Sactown starts Tier 3 with a PG, probably MCW, and then we should choose between Burke, McCollum or Zeller.

Didn't Saric pull out of the Draft?

Even so you still have 14 players listed... and I'd be happy with most of them... which is another reason I'd love to swing the Marion + #13 trade

[BIG BEN'S FRO]

I agree with this list. I am trying to personally decide the order of tier 3. I think I like Burke as my top choice, and then my list turns into spaghetti with The rest of those 3. I agree with Pharoah that the Dallas trade remains our best move this offseason. Even as an MSU fan, there is no denying how much Burke's PnR ability will improve the development of our bigs. No offense to BK, but I don't see it as a starting 1.

[theBigLip]

Tier 1:
Nerlens Noel 18 C 6-11 206 Kentucky
Otto Porter 19 SF 6-8 200 Georgetown
Victor Oladipo 20 SG 6-5 214 Indiana

Tier 2:
Ben McLemore 20 SG 6-5 195 Kansas
Anthony Bennett 19 PF 6-8 240 UNLV
Alex Len 19 C 7-1 225 Maryland

Tier 3:
Trey Burke 20 PG 6-1 175 Michigan
C.J. McCollum 21 SG 6-3 190 Lehigh
Cody Zeller 20 C 6-11 210 Indiana
Michael Carter-Williams 21 PG 6-5 175 Syracuse

Tier 4:
Steven Adams 19 C 7-0 240 Pittsburgh
Kentavious Caldwell Pope 19 SG 6-5 205 Georgia
Shabazz Muhammad 19 SF 6-6 225 UCLA
Kelly Olynyk 21 C 7-0 238 Gonzaga
Dario Saric 18 SF 6-10 223 Croatia

If this holds true, Sactown starts Tier 3 with a PG, probably MCW, and then we should choose between Burke, McCollum or Zeller.

Didn't Saric pull out of the Draft?

Even so you still have 14 players listed... and I'd be happy with most of them... which is another reason I'd love to swing the Marion + #13 trade

Saric hasn't officially pulled out. He has until Monday. The rumor is many teams are trying to convince him to stay in, and he wants to convince them that he wants to stay in Europe at least another year.

[joseph mamah]

id put Adams tier 3. id be tempted to put him tier 2, I think he has just as much if not more upside than Len, but your going to have to have some patience with him the first couple of years

if we didnt already have Dre, Adams would probably be my guy at #8 this year.

[Brapman]

Saric, if he's serious about pulling out of the draft, is coming off as something of an idiot. If he goes high in this year's draft, he doesn't have to sign. He can stay in Europe.

Therefore, IMO, this is just a ploy. He's trying to get a team higher in the lottery to commit to him, because the higher you go, the more guaranteed money you can get when you sign. Pulling out of the draft is illogical UNLESS you slide too far in this draft, in which case, if you're going to improve your stock a lot you then might calculate that waiting for next year's draft will make you more money.

If it's not a ploy, then he's too stupid to draft anyways.

[Brapman]

id put Adams tier 3. id be tempted to put him tier 2, I think he has just as much if not more upside than Len, but your going to have to have some patience with him the first couple of years

if we didnt already have Dre, Adams would probably be my guy at #8 this year.

There are three centers in this draft, all of whom could easily go top 7: Noel, Len and Adams - especially since this is a pretty weak at the top draft. Adams might be exactly the type of gamble a team needing a center would take this year. Cleveland, Washington, Charlotte, Phoenix and the Pelicans all might draft a big center this year. In addition, the Kings, Washington, Charlotte and Phoenix might be looking at stretch 4's, which puts Bennett and Zeller in play. Seriously, a case could be made for 5 or 6 of these big men going in the top 7.

Some intriguing players could be falling to the Pistons pick, and then to the Dallas pick at #13 if we can get that too.

[DocRI]

Just to be clear, using Ford's Tier system from the last couple of years (where he surveys GM's and scouts - not his personal opinion), there would be no Tier 1's this year, and I think no Tier 2's either. Your Tier 1 guys in this thread are, at best, Tier 3 guys.

I think we're looking at about 10 guys in this draft who are all borderline Tier 3/Tier 4 guys. The 3 guys who'll go 1-3 in this draft don't separate from the guys who'll go 4-10, IMO.

Just to be clear, I'm not using Tiers to compare this draft with previous drafts. Draft tiers are used as a strategy by most NBA GMs in order to make sure they don't f--k up and pick for need over BPA (best player available).

So you basically group players that you think are of similar skill level. Then when it comes to your time to draft, you always select players from the highest tier possible, but from within that tier, you may select someone that fits a particular position or team need that you have.

If you think Tiers are stupid, then the alternative is just "going with your gut instinct" on the spur of the moment when you are on the clock pretty much ensures you making a poor choice.

^ This, as strongly as I can second it. Draft tiers are a tool to compare prospects only within a given draft.

That said, my breakdown of tiers of prospects for 2013 —

TIER 1: Noel, McLemore, Oladipo, Porter, Bennett, Burke

TIER 2: Len, McCollum, Muhammad, Carter-Williams, Saric, Zeller

TIER 3: Adams, Schroeder, Larkin, Olynyk, Caldwell-Pope

And after that, my favorite late first / early second round sleeper (i.e. guy with the most upside among the rest) is Ledo.