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Perfect example of why not to rely on stats too much

mercury wrote:Perfect example of why not to rely on stats too much

This. I think we will win closer to 60-65 games than 50.

2nd in the East? Ahead of the Pacers and Chicago? That's really in the "hard to impossible" range to justify.

If everything comes together, I could see that as a possibility (not a probability, though) in 2014-15. But, I don't think it's impossible for us to challenge for #4 in the East this season - and that's conceivable because it's fully within the domain of reason to think we could get breakthrough seasons from Jennings, Monroe and Drummond, and good all-around SG play from KCP.

Can't say I can buy into 2nd in the East, but if you look at the projections, there IS some moderation here. He uses previous three years' data for projections, unless of course the player has less than three years experience. Drummond had such a huge impact last year, projecting him to stay at that level on a per-minute basis is a bit suspect.

That said, he only projects Drummond for 24 minutes a game, which is probably low (more like 28-30).

From a pure talent basis, I absolutely get that our possible upside this season (tempered by the fact that our key guy is 20 years old and nowhere near how good he can become in a few seasons, and by the fact that the team is so new to each other) could be as this site projects.

But we are young and we are new to each other, so our IF's in terms of climbing up to the #2 seed are just too large for me to buy into projecting us in that slot.

I'd be delighted to be wrong.

mercury wrote:Perfect example of why not to rely on stats too much

I put little to no stock in advanced stats, but my prediction just off pure basketball knowledge was 45-50, so this isn't too far off from my own non-statistical analysis. However I have them at 6th (5th at best), even if they win 50, because the East just has so many great teams at the top. So I have a hard time seeing them finish 2nd.

mercury wrote:Perfect example of why not to rely on stats too much

This. How accurate were these stats for last season?

2nd in the East? I would say our ceiling is 5th or 6th.

Minas wrote:

mercury wrote:Perfect example of why not to rely on stats too much

This. How accurate were these stats for last season?

I don't know about every team, and I'm sure they get a lot wrong every year, but they actually got the Pistons pretty close last year using this same formula (for what its worth). They predicted 24.5 last year and we won 29

This is just stupid.

We win 54 games, Houston wins 67 games, and Philly gets the 6th seed this year.

Possibly the worst thing I've ever read lol

rock digger wrote:We win 54 games, Houston wins 67 games, and Philly gets the 6th seed this year.

Possibly the worst thing I've ever read lol

Don't forget Indiana wins 38 games and misses the playoffs lol. Its quite a joke, but with all these other sites predicting we finish 9th/10th, I'll take it...

Wages of Wins is actually pretty good. No statisticAl analyses can predict the future, but they are usually as accurate as anybody can be.

I have Pistons as a contender without stats... About 3rd seed would be my guess

Minas wrote:

mercury wrote:Perfect example of why not to rely on stats too much

This. How accurate were these stats for last season?

They predicted Detroit to win 29 games last season, so they weren't too far off.

They are not the best out there when it comes to the NBA draft, but when it comes to actual NBA play, they are pretty good. As good as you can be without being able to predict injuries or dumb coaching decisions.

If this was the season after this one perhaps it would make sense. At this point, we have a new coaching staff, a ton of new players on our roster and likely a new system. It will take some time.

Makes sense from there calcuations

1. We took the best player from 2 rival playoff teams

2. Drummonds per 36 stats scaled up.

3. Internal development of young players (Monroe)

4. Team def stats

Dumars pulled off a poor mans Miami 08 and these number crunchers did the same thing with us that they did with the Heat big 3. When you use last yrs stats for FAs and the assume that Smith, Jennings and Monroe will all be #1 options (essentialy saying the Pistons get to play with 3 basketballs) then yeah the Pistons should get a huge jump.

I fully expect Smith, Jennings and Monroe to have what the outside laymen would say are down yrs. The only way that any of them reach last yrs PPG is a massive increase if EFF.

This Pistons team could very well be the 1977 Sixers. Or it could be the 1965 Celtics. We just dont know yet.

MrBigShot wrote:If this was the season after this one perhaps it would make sense. At this point, we have a new coaching staff, a ton of new players on our roster and likely a new system. It will take some time.

Agreed. They're looking at raw numbers, opposed to looking at intangible barriers, like a new coaching staff and roster turnover in general. Drummond's phenomenal per-minute production also propelled the ranking a lot as well, even though their stats don't generally value Jennings and Smith.

ImHeisenberg wrote:

Minas wrote:

mercury wrote:Perfect example of why not to rely on stats too much

This. How accurate were these stats for last season?

They predicted Detroit to win 29 games last season, so they weren't too far off.

It's officially the gospel then.


Not even being sarcastic