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Continuing my series of predictions for our starters, this time for J-Smoove...

Josh Smith

PPG: 16.1
RPG: 7.7
APG; 4.1
SPG: 1.2
BPG: 1.6
TO/G: 2.5

MPG: 34.8
FG%: 48%
FT%: 64%
PER: 18.8

In order to be the best player he can be, Smith really doesn't need to change much -- he just needs to stop taking jumpers, especially long 2's. The problem is, playing around half his minutes as a small forward will put him in position to hoist up these bad shots. Oh, I guess he could also improve by having a solid year from the free throw line, too, as not too many players vary season-to-season as much as he has (high of 72.5%, two other seasons over 70%, but a horrible 51.7% last year and a number of other seasons under 63%).

I think he'll take bad shots a little less frequently, but still have trouble kicking the habit entirely. He'll also carry a little less of the load offensively than he did in Atlanta. I think we'll see some sweet Smith to Drummond plays on the break, as Josh is a good passer. His turnover rate should drop a little with his overall usage, too.

Bottom line, a guy mid-career isn't likely to change drastically, but the overall quality of the guys he's playing with can make a big difference. Horford's a very good player, but not a guy that runs the break often. Moose is at least Horford's equal in that department, and Drummond is clearly much better at it. Add in Jennings' tendency to push things and our two-guards' athleticism (particularly KCP) and Smith is probably more in his element here. I expect a slight increase in efficiency and a slight decrease in his overall numbers, particularly rebounding. The biggest thing he's bringing, though, just can't be quantified with the above numbers -- he's a very, very good man defender, even while playing the 3. If KCP develops well, we could have three high quality defenders on the floor together, and if Moose gets to at least average, that's a darn good defensive team.

Name a better player in the league than Smith to match up against LeBron, Durant, Melo, Blake Griffin, Aldridge, Pierce, Kawhi Leonard, Bosh. I don't think think there is one. In fact, of all those guys, the only defender better than or even equal to Smith is LeBron.

He can defend 3's, 4's and even 2's and most of the C's in the league.

He was a perfect pairing with Al Horford - covering for Horford's defensive weaknesses. Imagine him pairing with Drummond. Simply said: O.M.G. Imagine him pairing with Drummond and Mitchell at times and in another year or two. O.M.F'ing.G.

And he's a great passer and runner of the floor. As is Monroe. And I think Drummond has great handle for a C, very fine passing ability, and is a super runner of the floor at that position. These 3 are going to learn to play together. It's going to be the best set of F's/C in the league in time. Aside from any team with LeBron and Durant, every team in the league would trade their F's and C for ours - or would want to do that in short order.

I just hope Smith doesn't try to the #1 option on this team, and focuses on defense while deferring to Monroe and Jennings on offense, where he's getting easy buckets, put backs. Probably won't happen.

ImHeisenberg wrote:I just hope Smith doesn't try to the #1 option on this team, and focuses on defense while deferring to Monroe and Jennings on offense, where he's getting easy buckets, put backs. Probably won't happen.

Yeah I'm also hoping the focus is on D and taking efficient shots (for him, attacking the rim). He's a terrible three shooter and I hope he pulls an '09 and just gives them up.

As for the numbers projections, seems reasonable. Steals could bump up since he will playing more on the perimeter and rebounds could be lower playing with Drummond and Monroe, but otherwise everything pretty much in line with career averages. Smith will stuff the stat sheet and do a little of everything...let's just hope he doesn't try to be the main option on offense

ajaX82 wrote:

ImHeisenberg wrote:I just hope Smith doesn't try to the #1 option on this team, and focuses on defense while deferring to Monroe and Jennings on offense, where he's getting easy buckets, put backs. Probably won't happen.

Yeah I'm also hoping the focus is on D and taking efficient shots (for him, attacking the rim). He's a terrible three shooter and I hope he pulls an '09 and just gives them up.

As for the numbers projections, seems reasonable. Steals could bump up since he will playing more on the perimeter and rebounds could be lower playing with Drummond and Monroe, but otherwise everything pretty much in line with career averages. Smith will stuff the stat sheet and do a little of everything...let's just hope he doesn't try to be the main option on offense

this.

the only way this frontcourt succeeds is if smith controls his shot selection and is as efficient as possible

It's going to be hard to judge his play this year, if he averages 20, it doesnt necessarily mean hes playing good. Stats wont be able to accurately judge him this season like past seasons. I do believe he will change as a player though and mature.

ripper3264 wrote:It's going to be hard to judge his play this year, if he averages 20, it doesnt necessarily mean hes playing good. Stats wont be able to accurately judge him this season like past seasons. I do believe he will change as a player though and mature.

He needs to do what David West did for the Pacers when he went there; facilitate the growth of guys like Monroe and Drummond, and step up when called upon. Jennings is the biggest wild card on this team. Everybody knows he's capable of being the player Detroit wants/needs him to be, but will he?

ImHeisenberg wrote:

ripper3264 wrote:It's going to be hard to judge his play this year, if he averages 20, it doesnt necessarily mean hes playing good. Stats wont be able to accurately judge him this season like past seasons. I do believe he will change as a player though and mature.

He needs to do what David West did for the Pacers when he went there; facilitate the growth of guys like Monroe and Drummond, and step up when called upon. Jennings is the biggest wild card on this team. Everybody knows he's capable of being the player Detroit wants/needs him to be, but will he?

Thats actually quite a good comparison, if he could be a David West + his athleticism and defensive presence, I would be very happy

I'm not concerned with individual numbers with Smith. I don't think his impact truly shows up in the stats anyways. Its all about the impact he's going to have on the team defense, as well as our points in the paint as a team on offense, as one of the leagues elite finisher. He's going to significantly boost both areas and those are pretty much two of the main factors to winning. So his impact will be measured in the win column for me, not his stats.

ripper3264 wrote:

ImHeisenberg wrote:

ripper3264 wrote:It's going to be hard to judge his play this year, if he averages 20, it doesnt necessarily mean hes playing good. Stats wont be able to accurately judge him this season like past seasons. I do believe he will change as a player though and mature.

He needs to do what David West did for the Pacers when he went there; facilitate the growth of guys like Monroe and Drummond, and step up when called upon. Jennings is the biggest wild card on this team. Everybody knows he's capable of being the player Detroit wants/needs him to be, but will he?

Thats actually quite a good comparison, if he could be a David West + his athleticism and defensive presence, I would be very happy

I hear this. One problem is that West is a dynamite midrange shooter, a skill that makes it easy to be a smart, patient player. Instead of forcing things, you wait for the D to give you something, you keep moving to create space, and you keep working to get to your spots. Smith is bad at spot-up shooting and has to attack to create for himself, and his handle is so spotty that he often gets himself into trouble.

Maybe the best thing the coaching staff could do to Smith and Jennings is practice attacking without shooting, learning that you always have the option of keeping your dribble after you create space or go to an opening. (NOTE: I'm really bad at this as a player!). If they could both learn to be more patient and use that opening to make something happen aside from an awkward floater or a 14-ft running jumper, it would probably help both guys...and give more opportunities for finding Drum and Smoove for statue-of-liberty dunks.

Hope they spend a lot of time working against zones

HotelVitale wrote:I hear this. One problem is that West is a dynamite midrange shooter, a skill that makes it easy to be a smart, patient player. Instead of forcing things, you wait for the D to give you something, you keep moving to create space, and you keep working to get to your spots. Smith is bad at spot-up shooting and has to attack to create for himself, and his handle is so spotty that he often gets himself into trouble.

You missed the point. West was signed as the highest paid Pacer when he joined the team, but he didn't come in with an alpha dog attitude. He became a leader, didn't worry about his personal numbers, and helped the young players along, like Roy Hibbert and Paul George.

ImHeisenberg wrote:

HotelVitale wrote:I hear this. One problem is that West is a dynamite midrange shooter, a skill that makes it easy to be a smart, patient player. Instead of forcing things, you wait for the D to give you something, you keep moving to create space, and you keep working to get to your spots. Smith is bad at spot-up shooting and has to attack to create for himself, and his handle is so spotty that he often gets himself into trouble.

You missed the point. West was signed as the highest paid Pacer when he joined the team, but he didn't come in with an alpha dog attitude. He became a leader, didn't worry about his personal numbers, and helped the young players along, like Roy Hibbert and Paul George.

I agreed with that simple idea, hence the 'I hear this.' But I added that West isn't a close comp because he's mostly a pick and pop shooter who doesn't create most of his own looks. He was never a risk taker or penetrator and never had anything close to an 'alpha dog' mentality--he was a guy who mostly took what was given to him and played within a fairly strict team concept (which was basically, 'give CP3 the ball every time and wait for him to give you a good look'). If Smith became more like that, he'd immediately be more efficient per shot but would also create fewer shots for himself and others, since his game is predicated on driving.

(Also worth noting that West's usage last year was pretty similar to what it was on the Hornets (around 25%). He played with CP3 every year in NOLA, so it makes sense that when he moved to the Pacers he couldn't duplicate what he did and couldn't find ways to be effective right away. His usage dropped in his first year with Indiana, but so did his efficiency. Simply put, he didn't know how to be as effective on the Pacers. After a year of being integrated into the Pacers' attack, though, both his usage and efficiency returned back to his normal NOLA numbers.)

EDIT: I don't know Smith personally, but I think the problem might be less about his mentality or his obsession with his numbers than it is something inherent to how he plays the game. Good players know they're effective playing in a certain instinctive way, and it's hard to tell them 'mostly your instincts are right, but this instinct and this instinct are wrong sometimes, so change them and only them.' I'm not saying it's impossible, and I think it's a great thing to strive for, but I don't think it's as easy as just changing your' attitude' and saying you're going to be less selfish and more team-oriented.

HotelVitale wrote:(Also worth noting that West's usage last year was pretty similar to what it was on the Hornets (around 25%). He played with CP3 every year in NOLA, so it makes sense that when he moved to the Pacers he couldn't duplicate what he did and couldn't find ways to be effective right away. His usage dropped in his first year with Indiana, but so did his efficiency. Simply put, he didn't know how to be as effective on the Pacers. After a year of being integrated into the Pacers' attack, though, both his usage and efficiency returned back to his normal NOLA numbers.)

His usage increase in year two might have had more to do with Granger being out of commission the entire season more than not playing with CP3 any longer.

Either way, I thought West came off as kind of an a-hole in Nola, and definitely played a lot of games looking to "get his". Basically, I didn't see his turn as a team leader coming. Will Smith be a similar force? Who knows? I was just stating that I hope he does. It's more about the intrinsic value than any on-court production (which we know Smith can do).

4 assists a game seems kind of high. I'm not sure he reaches that number with ball dominate Jennings running the show.

I think Smiths stats will be lower than in years past. He got his contract and is set. Now, it is time for team ball and he has soo many options around him that he can concentrate on defense etc with this team. I expect something around 16-17ppg 5-7rpg and 3apg. I would be happy with that if he ends up contributing to a solid front line defensive beast of a team.

Honestly? I don't care if Smith only averages 12ppg. It's his defense I care about. If he continues to do what he does on defense, on this team with Drummond, its going to be awesome to watch. I honestly think he will average a career high in assist's this year. We have some really good finishers at the rim, and with Drummond always hovering around the hoop, it could get absurd.

I also agree with everyone else. I hate players who take long 2-pointers. On this team, because he is going to have a mis-match a ton of times, there is zero reason he should be far out from the basket. Most teams will not be able to size up with us, so the wrong player is going to be on either Drummond, Monroe, or Smith(This is also one of the reasons I think his assist numbers will be his highest ever)so he wont have to settle for the long jumper. Just back em down Smith, or pass it to one of the other big fellas.

I like these tmorgan, do more!

ripper3264 wrote:I do believe he will change as a player though and mature.

Good luck with that. Us Hawks fans said the same thing for the last 8 years.

I have no idea what he'll produce, but he is better offensively at the 4 while solid defensively at SF or PF.
He and Drummond can be dominant defensively together, but his tendency to insist on running the fastbreak and his penchant for shooting terrible shots at the worst possible moment tends to offset any benefit he provides on that side of the ball.

It'll be interesting to see how he meshes with that frontcourt and how he complements Brandon Jennings at PG.

But I love Drummond and KCP; those should be the players your team is built around in the coming years.

I don't think JSmoove has ever had guys like Sheed/Chauncey around him who know what it takes to win. We all witnessed what happened when Chauncey got traded. Dude is a natural leader. Him and Sheed will get Jennings/Smith to buy in imo. I don't think they will completly stop shooting long contested 2s, but as long as they stay within the offense and focus on facilitating/defense respectively they will be fine.

Pistons have enough defense in Monroe and Drummond. Hopefully Smith really worked on his outside shot because he needs to score and be able to hit 3's consistently