Pistons Playoff Position Odds

[tmorgan]

Nothing but my personal opinion here, but...

This team is not a true lock for the playoffs. I estimate the chance of missing out due to frontcourt design, backcourt talent, and questionable coaching at around 25%.

For the other 75%, I think the most likely outcome is the 6th seed, behind the clear top 5 of the conference. I can't envision any scenario that has the Pistons finishing in front of Miami, Chicago, or Indiana. If the old-ish Nets have injury problems, perhaps we could edge them, and I still don't think the Knicks are that good, just clearly better than the Pistons in terms of experience with each other and having a #1 scoring option. Maybe we could pass them if everything breaks right.

As for the other playoff contenders, certainly Washington and Cleveland could finish in front of us if things go well for them. Atlanta can't be ignored either, and there are a few other teams with at least a slight chance of making the playoffs.

So... I'd say, in order of likelihood...

6th seed, 35%
Miss playoffs, 25%
7th seed, 20%
8th seed, 15%
5th seed, 4%
4th seed, 1%

As for playoff matchups, we're not getting home court. I think we could beat the Knicks or Nets if the team develops really nicely (and the Nets have trouble staying healthy), but those matchups seem pretty unlikely. If we finish 7th or 8th, I'm really confident the top 2 seeds will be Miami and Chicago (with a slight chance of Indiana), and we aren't beating those teams. If we finish 6th, I suppose the Nets or Knicks could finish third, but I doubt it. If we do sneak into the 5th spot we'd probably get our shot at one of those two teams, with a decent chance to advance. Longshot to get there, though.

So, making the playoffs is the goal, along with putting up a good fight when we get there. Develop Drummond, develop KCP, develop Moose a bit, and try and get Jennings to play team ball. Hope for the best with Smith. That's pretty much the season for me, although getting something out of Datome and getting a future contributor in Siva and/or Mitchell would be nice, too.

[Spider156]

You're too optimistic. I don't think we've been doing well at all. I want to see what we can do with Jennings first before I can make a judgement. So far I don't like it though. It's not looking as good as I'd like it to be. Major part of it is Smith not playing as well as I expect him to.

[sc8581]

You're too optimistic. I don't think we've been doing well at all. I want to see what we can do with Jennings first before I can make a judgement. So far I don't like it though. It's not looking as good as I'd like it to be. Major part of it is Smith not playing as well as I expect him to.

I agree, seems like they've been terrible together so far, obviously it's preseason but it's still basketball. I think Smith might be struggling because he's playing out of position ya know.

[MotownMadness]

I think we will get the 7th or 8th seed. It's probably going to be a sloppy first half of the season but should get better during the 2nd half after getting some chemistry. I mean we gotta be a lot better then last year when we had Singler at the 3 and Max at the 4. We will be alright not great but at least respectable as the season goes on. Also who knows who could become available around the league in trade. Other thing with us playing sloppy is we are still one of the youngest teams in the league.

[tmorgan]

Let me ask those currently having doubts this:

If the Pistons had stayed healthy (primarily Jennings, but Stuckey, too) this preseason and were 4-1, while looking good on offense, would you think picking us 7th or 8th with a good chance at 6th as being overly pessimistic?

If so, you're putting way too much stock in the preseason. The only significant things that have happened are Jennings' injury (because he's now behind, which will cost us early in the year) and us looking sloppy together (which anyone really should have expected). There's nothing else to take from this, and it really shouldn't alter anyone's prediction by more than a couple games. I didn't like Cheeks and still don't, but he's not going to keep this collection of talent out of the playoffs.

Now if you thought we'd struggle to make the playoffs before any of this preseason stuff, fine. I disagree with you, but it's a reasonable viewpoint.

[menten]

we're not getting into the playoffs this year. this team is too soft, too inexperienced and always chokes against good teams, especially monroe. it will be another typical 32-50 kuester-like season, book it

[zeebneeb]

Anyone making a judgment now, regardless if they are correct or not in the end, is willingly being ignorant.

The look of this team right now, is so far from what it will look like mid-season, its absurd to come to any judgment right now.

I picked this team to win(if memory serves)39games. I also picked them to be horrific early on, and then make an outstanding late run, that sets up next season.

Its brand new people, give it time. Hell, we don't even have our starting PG, who needs time to gel with the team(why I was so upset that he isn't playing until ???)and as we all know, without a floor general, the whole thing falls apart.

About 25games in, is when a proper assessment can be made. Now it may be 30+, because of Jennings, but it is what it is.

[BadMofoPimp]

If the Bucks can make the playoffs last year, the Pistons are Gauransheeed to make the playoffs this year.

[Clarity]

Let me ask those currently having doubts this:

If the Pistons had stayed healthy (primarily Jennings, but Stuckey, too) this preseason and were 4-1, while looking good on offense, would you think picking us 7th or 8th with a good chance at 6th as being overly pessimistic?

If we were 4-1 people would be making more 2014 Championship topics lol

[zeebneeb]

If the Bucks can make the playoffs last year, the Pistons are Gauransheeed to make the playoffs this year.

I don't know man. This is one of the most dramatic overhauls of a team, I have seen in awhile. New everything almost, and all young players for the most part.

It is going to be a rough damn beginning. Look at it without Billups, and Jennings. That SG slot has to be solidified really quick, or it will create even more turbulence later in the season.

Some nights we are going to look great, others? Pukatronic.

[dVs33]

This team is going to have a pretty rough start.
Its clear everyone is still trying to fit in with everyone else and our guard rotation is going to struggle with the injuries. there's too many if's and buts to say the team is a lock for playoffs, but the possibility is still there.

[theBigLip]

Agree with most that we will likely start slowly. But we have a lot more talent on our team this year. Drummond and Monroe are more experienced. Smith, Jennings, KCP and Billups are all pluses. And I think we would have made the playoffs last year had Drummond stayed healthy. So I'm pretty sure we make the playoffs if we stay reasonably healthy.

As for what seed, I think it is obvious Miami, Chicago and Indiana are in a whole other level and should lock up 1,2 and 3. The Nets should be good, but not sure about their size, and they are old, so they are a very iffy 4. The Knicks are also iffy. They just don't have that good of a team. So I know everyone will think I'm crazy, but we have a chance to get as high as #4. But 6-8 is guarensheed!

[Q00]

45-50 wins, 5th or 6th seed...if we stay healthy and Chauncey can play 25 minutes, and we tighten the rotation down to 8 or 9. Need to trim the fat and keep guys like CV, Bynum, Jerebko, etc off the court.

There's a reason we look like the same team as last year at times this preseason, and its always when one or more of those guys are playing. If we want to move on from being a lottery team we can't keep playing these same bums and expect to be a different team.

I'd go with Harrelson over both CV and Jerebko as the 4th big, an either stay with a 3 guard rotation of Jennings, Stuckey, Billups, or if we have to use a 4th guard use Siva over Bynum.

Jennings/Stuckey/Siva
Chauncey/Stuckey/Singler
Smith/Datome/Singler
Monroe/Smith
Drummond/Monroe/Harrelson

That would be my rotation and I think if they ride the top 6-7 guys big minutes, we can win 45-50 games and get the 5th seed

[ImHeisenberg]

You're too optimistic. I don't think we've been doing well at all. I want to see what we can do with Jennings first before I can make a judgement. So far I don't like it though. It's not looking as good as I'd like it to be. Major part of it is Smith not playing as well as I expect him to.

Solid summation. I'm with you here, the team hasn't been very convincing thus far, with the back court in disarray from injuries.

This team is not a lock for the playoffs. I would be surprised if they missed them, but what we've seen so far doesn't convince me that they're a mortal lock.

[srt4b]

Vegas has us missing the playoffs/8th seed with a 40-42 record.

For the record they have been pretty close to our record the last few years.

[ImHeisenberg]

Vegas has us missing the playoffs/8th seed with a 40-42 record.

For the record they have been pretty close to our record the last few years.

That's because Vegas has better analysts and statisticians than ESPN, or these arm chair GM jagoffs.

[mercury]

^ That would have us giving up our pick and still missing the playoffs... worse case scenario.