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I was reading an article about the Pistons general problems in the 4th quarter and decided to dig a little deeper into the stats behind each quarter. Here's the differentials from league average by quarter:

Field Goal Percentage:
1st: -0.3%
2nd: 2.5%
3rd: -2.3%
4th: -8.0%

Three Point Percentage:
1st: -2.2%
2nd: -5.0%
3rd: -3.4%
4th: -7.2%

Assists:
1st: -0.8
2nd: 0.3
3rd: -0.9
4th: -1.7

Turnovers:
1st: -0.7
2nd: -0.1
3rd: 0.0
4th: -0.2

Rebounds:
1st: +0.7
2nd: +1.8
3rd: +1.4
4th: -1.3

Points:
1st: +0.0
2nd: +1.5
3rd: -0.3
4th: -3.2

So we lose the rebounding battle in the fourth and lose significantly in terms of FG% and 3PT%. So how are the players doing in the 4th?

Greg Monroe is grabbing 1.7 rebounds in 7.7 minutes of play in the 4th, which is roughly 7.9 rebounds per 36, significantly down from his career 10.3 per 36. Smith is averaging 1.0 in 7.8, roughly 4.6 rebounds per 36. Significantly down from his career numbers (8.4 per 36) and even down from this year's numbers (6.7 per 36). Drummond suffers no such downturn, grabbing 2.7 rebounds in 7.8 minutes (12.5 per 36), which is not far off from his career numbers (13.5 per 36).

In terms of our five starters (and Stuckey) shooting percentages:
Andre Drummond - 62.0%
Greg Monroe - 43.8%
Brandon Jennings - 39.6%
Rodney Stuckey - 36.6%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 32.6%
Josh Smith - 31.4%

In terms of amount of shots:
Brandon Jennings - 4.6
Rodney Stuckey - 3.4
Josh Smith - 3.0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 1.9
Greg Monroe - 1.7
Andre Drummond - 1.7

The two highest percentage shooters are also taking the least amount of shots in the 4th. In particular, Greg Monroe averages at least 2.9 attempts per quarter in the first three quarters. All the while posting a shooting percentage in those quarters of roughly 52%.

We have three players in the 4th taking roughly 11 shots, and for the period we're talking 19.7 FGAs in the 4th. None of those three are hitting 40% of their shots right now. They key seems to be more ball movement (the drop in assists) and finding ways to get Monroe and Drummond more involve (due to them being higher percentage shots). There is also a need to better crash the glass from Monroe and Smith in the 4th to continue winning the rebounding war. It could be a conditioning issue with Monroe and Smith, but both are logging similar minutes to what they did last season.

One would think that Cheeks would start to draw up plays for Monroe in the 4th.

princeofpalace wrote:One would think that Cheeks would start to draw up plays for Monroe in the 4th.

i dont know if thats such a good idea. he has a history of not delivering when the game is on the line. he also passes up wide open shots all the time and refuses to post up. he's clearly scared

menten wrote:

princeofpalace wrote:One would think that Cheeks would start to draw up plays for Monroe in the 4th.

i dont know if thats such a good idea. he has a history of not delivering when the game is on the line. he also passes up wide open shots all the time and refuses to post up. he's clearly scared

more unsubstantiated nonsense

princeofpalace wrote:

menten wrote:

princeofpalace wrote:One would think that Cheeks would start to draw up plays for Monroe in the 4th.

i dont know if thats such a good idea. he has a history of not delivering when the game is on the line. he also passes up wide open shots all the time and refuses to post up. he's clearly scared

more unsubstantiated nonsense

you clearly didnt watch him the last couple of years then

It's every players fault we are trash. Everyone contributes their own special deficiency that adds up to our eventual L. Greg Monroe is not special, he plays a role too.

princeofpalace wrote:One would think that Cheeks would start to draw up plays for Monroe in the 4th.

If he does draw up plays, I'd love to see his board. It would be fifteen squiggles, denoting Jennings dribbling in circles for 15 seconds, then a small line just past the 3-point line for a force 20-foot jumper.

princeofpalace wrote:One would think that Cheeks would start to draw up plays for Monroe in the 4th.

You would think, its really not rocket science.

However, we are almost in the double digits on games given away in the 4th so maybe he just doesnt get it.

princeofpalace wrote:
more unsubstantiated nonsense

Its what he does.

menten wrote:you clearly didnt watch him the last couple of years then

Its questionable if you even know what bball is at this point champ.

this really shouldnt become another greg monroe thread but everyone's play levels off in the second half for some reason. our most recent loss i said the game was lost in the beginning of the third not the fourth. they allowed beal to heat up early and help WAS regain confidence quick, fast and in a hurry

in the fourth it was moreso Jennings who decided to try and take over. and even if we did funnel the offense through gregory like a few in here have wanted, he would not have won us the game. if he dominated (which i doubt he would have) they would have brought the double team and our other four would have had to contribute anyway.

gregory is a nice #2 or #3 but he is not a number one. he is still learning to play the position, which is obvious when he does an excellent post move only to get himself caught in no mans land and unable to actually finish or he turns the ball over during the execution of his post move. the regression of his jumpshot has been the biggest hinderance and it wouldnt be as big a deal if he played C but on our current roster he is a PF so we need him to be able to step out and consistently hit that jumper, which he hasnt been able to do. he has passed up some shots, probably because he has lost confidence in it so he'll need to get that back

anyway that was a tangent but the point is the reason we keep blowing leads is not because "we arent running the offense through monroe" its because we are a horrible defense team from top to bottom. and its a mix of the players limitations/lack of ability and the coaching philosophy

edit: i do agree on the iso ball that becomes prevalent in the fourth. and it may sound weird but i think its because they panic. why would jennings be comfortable enough to dish out 13 assists (i think) in the first three quarters but then turn into baby iverson in the fourth. i think he panics and completely shuts down mentally and therefore isnt able to run the offense and just goes into iso mode. the stagnancy on offense in the fourth has to be dealt with by the players and coaches. if monroe feels jennings is costing them in the fourth, he probably should (or has) said something to cheeks or jennings. cheeks obviously has to say something.

we are losing because of bad defense (maybe due to complacency after getting a sizable lead) and stagnancy on offense due to panicking in crunch time. they forget everything they did to build up the lead and it goes down the drain

They collapse in the 4th because they change the game plan from a 5 man offense to Smennings.

Smith and Jennings have a low bball IQ, and since they run the 4th quarter, the Pistons lose.

Here's the original article.
http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2013/12/3 ... h-quarters

menten wrote:

princeofpalace wrote:One would think that Cheeks would start to draw up plays for Monroe in the 4th.

i dont know if thats such a good idea. he has a history of not delivering when the game is on the line. he also passes up wide open shots all the time and refuses to post up. he's clearly scared

I agree. I see the same tentativeness and lack of confidence in his shot in the 4th that you do. I've seen it since his rookie year and he hasn't really improved at all in that regard.

The fact that he's only shooting 43.8% in the 4th, when all of his shots are right at the basket, I don't know how that equates to him deserving more shots. If anything, I would be giving him less shots because he's obviously not converting the ones he's getting at a high enough rate.

I might even say that Monroe's ineffectiveness in the post in the 4th is one of the underlying problems here, and a main cause for rest of the guys having to take so many shots instead.

This offense was built on the strength of the bigs, and we rely heavily on their ability to deliver in the post, because our perimeter guys are not consistent shooters. But if those bigs can't deliver inside, then it causes us to have to rely heavily on a bunch of inconsistent perimeter shooters instead. You can only dump it inside to Monroe so many times and have him miss or fumble it away before you lose trust in him and have to seek a different option. If he delivered inside in the 4th at the same effectiveness as he does in the 1st, then the other players wouldn't have to dribble around the perimeter and shoot jumpshots.

One of the main reasons I'm not sold on giving him a max contract. If we are going to invest all our money in Monroe, to the point that we can only afford inconsistent shooters around him, and then he can't even deliver inside for us when the game is on the line, then its not a good idea to give him all that money because the team will never succeed like that.

Also if Monroe really wanted more shots, he would be posting up and demanding the ball. Which I would love to see. All I see though is him just standing still doing nothing most of the time in the 4th.

Clarity wrote:Its what he does.

i know you dont like my posts. you cant shut up now. thank you

HK: Where did you find these stats? I would be interested to know what Monroe's 4th quarter stats where from his first 3 seasons in the league.

Q00 wrote:
I agree. I see the same tentativeness and lack of confidence in his shot in the 4th that you do. I've seen it since his rookie year and he hasn't really improved at all in that regard.

The fact that he's only shooting 43.8% in the 4th, when all of his shots are right at the basket, I don't know how that equates to him deserving more shots. If anything, I would be giving him less shots because he's obviously not converting the ones he's getting at a high enough rate.

I might even say that Monroe's ineffectiveness in the post in the 4th is one of the underlying problems here, and a main cause for rest of the guys having to take so many shots instead.
.

Monroe is taking 2 shots per 4th, how much less could they go to him.

Dont go off the deep end Q

Q00 wrote:Also if Monroe really wanted more shots, he would be posting up and demanding the ball. Which I would love to see. All I see though is him just standing still doing nothing most of the time in the 4th.

This is silly.

Monroe's a team guy, its rare for a player to do this ie the kobe's, lebron's etc.

Q00 wrote:

menten wrote:

princeofpalace wrote:One would think that Cheeks would start to draw up plays for Monroe in the 4th.

i dont know if thats such a good idea. he has a history of not delivering when the game is on the line. he also passes up wide open shots all the time and refuses to post up. he's clearly scared

I agree. I see the same tentativeness and lack of confidence in his shot in the 4th that you do. I've seen it since his rookie year and he hasn't really improved at all in that regard.

The fact that he's only shooting 43.8% in the 4th, when all of his shots are right at the basket, I don't know how that equates to him deserving more shots. If anything, I would be giving him less shots because he's obviously not converting the ones he's getting at a high enough rate.

I might even say that Monroe's ineffectiveness in the post in the 4th is one of the underlying problems here, and a main cause for rest of the guys having to take so many shots instead.

This offense was built on the strength of the bigs, and we rely heavily on their ability to deliver in the post, because our perimeter guys are not consistent shooters. But if those bigs can't deliver inside, then it causes us to have to rely heavily on a bunch of inconsistent perimeter shooters instead. You can only dump it inside to Monroe so many times and have him miss or fumble it away before you lose trust in him and have to seek a different option. If he delivered inside in the 4th at the same effectiveness as he does in the 1st, then the other players wouldn't have to dribble around the perimeter and shoot jumpshots.

One of the main reasons I'm not sold on giving him a max contract. If we are going to invest all our money in Monroe, to the point that we can only afford inconsistent shooters around him, and then he can't even deliver inside for us when the game is on the line, then its not a good idea to give him all that money because the team will never succeed like that.

going off memory i thought his second year his jumper was its best and since then its regressed. he has good hands with the ball for a big man so its always confused me why he hasnt been able to get the jumper right or shoot a higher FT percentage

Monroe has too much trouble getting shots off in the paint in a lot of situations nowadays, if he were surrounded by shooters that might help, but...

Clarity wrote:

Q00 wrote:
I agree. I see the same tentativeness and lack of confidence in his shot in the 4th that you do. I've seen it since his rookie year and he hasn't really improved at all in that regard.

The fact that he's only shooting 43.8% in the 4th, when all of his shots are right at the basket, I don't know how that equates to him deserving more shots. If anything, I would be giving him less shots because he's obviously not converting the ones he's getting at a high enough rate.

I might even say that Monroe's ineffectiveness in the post in the 4th is one of the underlying problems here, and a main cause for rest of the guys having to take so many shots instead.
.

Monroe is taking 2 shots per 4th, how much less could they go to him.

Dont go off the deep end Q

Q00 wrote:Also if Monroe really wanted more shots, he would be posting up and demanding the ball. Which I would love to see. All I see though is him just standing still doing nothing most of the time in the 4th.

This is silly.

Monroe's a team guy, its rare for a player to do this ie the kobe's, lebron's etc.

That 2 shots is just an average though. That doesn't mean he's only gotten 2 shots in every game. Its more like he's been given opportunities some games, and didn't deliver (either missing point blank shots or fumbling it away) to the point that it caused Cheeks to lose trust in him, and then go away from him completely in the games following. So its not like he hasn't been given opportunities in 4th quarters this year. I just don't think he delivered enough to earn more in Cheeks' mind. Compared to guys like Jennings/Stuckey/Smith who have all had defining moments this season where they won games for us in the 4th with big shots. So I think its just a matter of them having earned Cheeks trust more than Monroe, because they delivered when given opportunities and he hasn't yet, and that's why they are now getting more shots and more plays called for them.

Which goes back to my original point in that if he had delivered inside for us when given chances earlier in the year, the other guys wouldn't have to be trying to carry us now.

Should he go back to Monroe and give him another chance to prove he can get it done in the 4th? The way they are playing now, sure why not, if no one else can get it done either. But based on Monroe's career, he's never been a great crunch time scorer, so I wouldn't count on him suddenly becoming clutch.

On the other point, you can be a team guy and also be a leader at the same time. Demanding the ball when no one else can score is being a leader and a team guy. Its not like everyone else is scoring and I'm saying he should demand the ball because he just wants to get in on the action. Great big men/leaders take it upon the themselves when no one else can score to get in that low post and demand the ball. Rasheed did it all the time and he was certainly a team player. Lebron and Kobe are team players too. They are just great leaders as well.

If Monroe were capable of delivering on cue in crunch time, I think he would take lead and demand the ball too. I don't think he's confident enough in his game to do that like Rasheed used to, and that's why he doesn't call for it. So if he doesn't have confidence in himself, its hard to blame Cheeks for not having confidence in him. The other guys seek the ball and have delivered before, and that's why Cheeks has more confidence in them late in games. Of course every player has failed more than succeeded this year in the 4th, but when the others all have at least a few defining moments and he has none (that I can think of) its not hard for me to see why Cheeks trusts the others more.

Q00 wrote:

That 2 shots is just an average though. That doesn't mean he's only gotten 2 shots in every game. Its more like he's been given opportunities some games, and didn't deliver (either missing point blank shots or fumbling it away) to the point that it caused Cheeks to lose trust in him, and then go away from him completely in the games following. So its not like he hasn't been given opportunities in 4th quarters this year. I just don't think he delivered enough to earn more in Cheeks' mind. Compared to guys like Jennings/Stuckey/Smith who have all had defining moments this season where they won games for us in the 4th with big shots. So I think its just a matter of them having earned Cheeks trust more than Monroe, because they delivered when given opportunities and he hasn't yet, and that's why they are now getting more shots and more plays called for them.

Which goes back to my original point in that if he had delivered inside for us when given chances earlier in the year, the other guys wouldn't have to be trying to carry us now.

Should he go back to Monroe and give him another chance to prove he can get it done in the 4th? The way they are playing now, sure why not, if no one else can get it done either. But based on Monroe's career, he's never been a great crunch time scorer, so I wouldn't count on him suddenly becoming clutch.

On the other point, you can be a team guy and also be a leader at the same time. Demanding the ball when no one else can score is being a leader and a team guy. Its not like everyone else is scoring and I'm saying he should demand the ball because he just wants to get in on the action. Great big men/leaders take it upon the themselves when no one else can score to get in that low post and demand the ball. Rasheed did it all the time and he was certainly a team player. Lebron and Kobe are team players too. They are just great leaders as well.

If Monroe were capable of delivering on cue in crunch time, I think he would take lead and demand the ball too. I don't think he's confident enough in his game to do that like Rasheed used to, and that's why he doesn't call for it.

I can count on 2 hands the amount of times hes been our best player on the floor & has been ignored in the 4th.

Really no comparison between being a leader & demanding the ball. Rasheed rarely did that, the major knock on Sheed through his entire career was he was way too unselfish.

The Cheeks losing confidence/him losing confidence is speculation by you, lets keep it factual, theres nothing factual that backs up those comments.

The statistics/games have shown running through Monroe & constantly finding Drum is the way to win, hence all our leads in the 2nd half, & going away from them is the way to lose.

Clarity wrote:

Q00 wrote:

That 2 shots is just an average though. That doesn't mean he's only gotten 2 shots in every game. Its more like he's been given opportunities some games, and didn't deliver (either missing point blank shots or fumbling it away) to the point that it caused Cheeks to lose trust in him, and then go away from him completely in the games following. So its not like he hasn't been given opportunities in 4th quarters this year. I just don't think he delivered enough to earn more in Cheeks' mind. Compared to guys like Jennings/Stuckey/Smith who have all had defining moments this season where they won games for us in the 4th with big shots. So I think its just a matter of them having earned Cheeks trust more than Monroe, because they delivered when given opportunities and he hasn't yet, and that's why they are now getting more shots and more plays called for them.

Which goes back to my original point in that if he had delivered inside for us when given chances earlier in the year, the other guys wouldn't have to be trying to carry us now.

Should he go back to Monroe and give him another chance to prove he can get it done in the 4th? The way they are playing now, sure why not, if no one else can get it done either. But based on Monroe's career, he's never been a great crunch time scorer, so I wouldn't count on him suddenly becoming clutch.

On the other point, you can be a team guy and also be a leader at the same time. Demanding the ball when no one else can score is being a leader and a team guy. Its not like everyone else is scoring and I'm saying he should demand the ball because he just wants to get in on the action. Great big men/leaders take it upon the themselves when no one else can score to get in that low post and demand the ball. Rasheed did it all the time and he was certainly a team player. Lebron and Kobe are team players too. They are just great leaders as well.

If Monroe were capable of delivering on cue in crunch time, I think he would take lead and demand the ball too. I don't think he's confident enough in his game to do that like Rasheed used to, and that's why he doesn't call for it.

I can count on 2 hands the amount of times hes been our best player on the floor & has been ignored in the 4th.

Really no comparison between being a leader & demanding the ball. Rasheed rarely did that, the major knock on Sheed through his entire career was he was way too unselfish.

The Cheeks losing confidence/him losing confidence is speculation by you, lets keep it factual, theres nothing factual that backs up those comments.

The statistics/games have shown running through Monroe & constantly finding Drum is the way to win, hence all our leads in the 2nd half, & going away from them is the way to lose.

I think a lot of that is teams adjusting by the 4th quarter and not letting us do anything in the paint, forcing us to make outside shots and when we don't our offense falls apart.