RealGM

I can't believe I'm doing this again this year Hopefully we can make the playoffs next year

Ok, new model. Yes, I know this isn't perfect, but it does give some insight.

Here are the assumptions:
- The teams currently 2-13 will lose all their road games and only win at home against others on this list.
- Milwaukee loses all of the rest of their games and gets the #1 slot before the lottery.

Here is our tanking competition (first number is current stranding, the number is parentheses is projected):
13 (13). Brooklyn (22-26) Wins (32)
12 (11t). New Orleans (22-27) Wins (28)
11 (11t). Charlotte (22-28) Wins (28)
10 (10). Detroit (20-29) Wins (27)
9 (7t). New York (20-30) Wins (26)
8 (7t). LA Lakers (18-32) Wins (26)
7 (4). Boston (18-33) Wins (24)
6 (7t). Cleveland (17-33) Wins (26)
5 (3). Sacramento (17-33) Wins (23)
4 (5t). Utah (16-33) Wins (25)
3 (5t). Philadelphia (15-36) Wins (25)
2 (2). Orlando (15-37) Wins (22)
1 (1). Milwaukee (9-40) Wins (9)

If this scenario plays out, it is the nightmare scenario. Charlotte and Brooklyn get the last two playoff spots, and we end up with the 10th pick before the lottery, likely giving that to Charlotte.

New York is winning mre games.They have nothingto lose for.

ComboGuardCity wrote:New York is winning mre games.They have nothingto lose for.

Probably, but lots of road games left. Heres the details:

9. New York (20-30) Wins (26)
Sun, Feb 9 @ Oklahoma City
Wed, Feb 12 vs Sacramento (WIN)
Tue, Feb 18 @ Memphis
Wed, Feb 19 @ New Orleans
Fri, Feb 21 @ Orlando
Sat, Feb 22 @ Atlanta
Mon, Feb 24 vs Dallas
Thu, Feb 27 @ Miami
Fri, Feb 28 vs Golden State
Sun, Mar 2 @ Chicago
Mon, Mar 3 @ Detroit
Wed, Mar 5 @ Minnesota
Fri, Mar 7 vs Utah (WIN)
Sat, Mar 8 @ Cleveland
Mon, Mar 10 vs Philadelphia (WIN)
Wed, Mar 12 @ Boston
Sat, Mar 15 vs Milwaukee (WIN)
Wed, Mar 19 vs Indiana
Fri, Mar 21 @ Philadelphia
Sun, Mar 23 vs Cleveland (WIN)
Tue, Mar 25 @ Los Angeles
Wed, Mar 26 @ Sacramento
Fri, Mar 28 @ Phoenix
Sun, Mar 30 @ Golden State
Mon, Mar 31 @ Utah
Wed, Apr 2 vs Brooklyn (WIN)
Fri, Apr 4 vs Washington
Sun, Apr 6 @ Miami
Fri, Apr 11 @ Toronto
Sun, Apr 13 vs Chicago
Tue, Apr 15 @ Brooklyn
Wed, Apr 16 vs Toronto

NY might jump ahead of us. Expect nobody else to, though.

None of those other teams are showing much in the way of signs of life. Gasol could be moved by the deadline, effectively ending their season. On the other hand, if Kobe actually returns that could put them on a path of fighting for the playoffs. We need to hope Gasol stays put and Kobe is able to contribute later in the season.

The rest of those teams are hopeless.

I think there is a great chance that Boston jumps ahead of us as well, they have picked up steam in the past few days now that Rondo is back to full strength.

Minnesota just lost Kevin Martin indefinitely. They have to be in tank considerations now.

Kilo wrote:Minnesota just lost Kevin Martin indefinitely. They have to be in tank considerations now.

Or a trade target for Stuckey

this team is destined for the 9th seed, just time to sit back and watch the bridge collapse

Might as well just root for wins so Charlotte gets a late pick. I don't think we're getting in the bottom 8 and I will jump off a bridge if Charlotte wins the lottery with the 9th pick or something because of us.

If we win the lottery, we keep the pick, I'm pretty sure.

Snakebites wrote:NY might jump ahead of us. Expect nobody else to, though.

None of those other teams are showing much in the way of signs of life. Gasol could be moved by the deadline, effectively ending their season. On the other hand, if Kobe actually returns that could put them on a path of fighting for the playoffs. We need to hope Gasol stays put and Kobe is able to contribute later in the season.

The rest of those teams are hopeless.

You're giving Kobe way too much credit right now. He fell off hard and he's been injured. He's nothing but an image and a contract right now.

Spider156 wrote:

Snakebites wrote:NY might jump ahead of us. Expect nobody else to, though.

None of those other teams are showing much in the way of signs of life. Gasol could be moved by the deadline, effectively ending their season. On the other hand, if Kobe actually returns that could put them on a path of fighting for the playoffs. We need to hope Gasol stays put and Kobe is able to contribute later in the season.

The rest of those teams are hopeless.

You're giving Kobe way too much credit right now. He fell off hard and he's been injured. He's nothing but an image and a contract right now.

I'm not suggesting he'll be able to rally them to the playoffs, just that he'll get them fighting in that direction.

A few wins here and there towards the end of the season isn't out of the question, and that's what we'd need.

I'm going to take a vacation from this thread. I'm thinking we're turning things around and going to the playoffs!