The Lottery - Tuesday, May 20th

Post #1 » by **theBigLip** » Mon May 19, 2014 12:22 am

Ah, that time of year again. I hope this is the last one we case about for the next 10 years.

72% chance we get #8
18% chance our pick goes to Charlotte
10% chance of greatness!

Obviously, most likely scenario is we keep our #8. I guess Kyle Singler is going to be our representative (I guess that means we should expect him in a Piston uniform next year?)

I'd love a top 3 pick. If we get #1, take Wiggins. a #2 or #3, it would be interesting if we could trade down with Philly or Orlando and get 2 for 1 picks. Then take Exum/Stauskas? Randall/Smart? Parker/Harris?

48 more hours. Tick, tick, tick...

kurtis48239 · Post #2 » by **kurtis48239** » Mon May 19, 2014 12:30 am

Iam more a fan of parker,but if we took wiggins I wouldnt be that upset,but if we do get #2 and parker is there I would take him in a minute than trade down for a couple of picks.

I also have this feeling since we lucked out and nabbed svg,that the other shoe will drop and we end up losing our pick.I will definitly have my rabbits foot,horse shoe,kids 1st tooth,etc on tuesday.

RipCity32 · Post #3 » by **RipCity32** » Mon May 19, 2014 12:31 am

If we get #2 I'd take Parker before trading down.
Same with #3 and Parker isn't taken 1 or 2.

But if Wiggins and Parker go 1-2 and we get the first pick, I'd consider trading down for a deal like you stated.

Kilo · Post #4 » by **Kilo** » Mon May 19, 2014 12:36 am

It's going to be excruciating as a Piston fan as they slowly reveal the order starting at #14...

If this isn't Phoenix we've lost the pick to Charlotte

Then #13...

If this isn't Minnesota we've lost our pick to Charlotte

Then #12...

If This isn't Orlando we've lost our pick to Charlotte

Then #11...

If This isn't Denver we've lost our pick to Charlotte

Then #10...

If This isn't Philly we've lost our pick to Charlotte

Then #9...

If this pops up Pistons (or would they already put in Charlotte) we've lost the pick.

Then #8...

Finally we can breathe here as we're at least keeping our pick - but now we're hoping to see Sacramento's logo come out of the envelope here.

MotownMadness · Post #5 » by **MotownMadness** » Mon May 19, 2014 12:43 am

If we get into the top 3 I might just cry. Could you imagine our future going forward with one of Wiggins, Parker or Exum. To grow with Drummond, Monroe and KCP.

Kilo · Post #6 » by **Kilo** » Mon May 19, 2014 12:44 am

On a side, I see (and read) this as a Wiggins/Parker/Embiid/Exum - Gap - Vonleh/Randle/Smart - HUGE Gap - the rest draft. If the first seven go off the board as expected and we lose #9 t Charlotte it's not the end of the world to me because we wouldn't be missing out on an elite prospect type. It will suck of course.

If we keep #8 I'd love for PHX to fall in love with somebody available at #8 and offer up #14 and #18 to the Pistons to move up to #8 to get their guy there - or 14/18/27 for 8/38.

No way I'll be able to watch the draft lott results reveal - my ticker would probably fail on me.

DETermination · Post #7 » by **DETermination** » Mon May 19, 2014 12:47 am

Kilo wrote:It's going to be excruciating as a Piston fan as they slowly reveal the order starting at #14...

If this isn't Phoenix we've lost the pick to Charlotte

Then #13...

If this isn't Minnesota we've lost our pick to Charlotte

Then #12...

If This isn't Orlando we've lost our pick to Charlotte

Then #11...

If This isn't Denver we've lost our pick to Charlotte

Then #10...

If This isn't Philly we've lost our pick to Charlotte

Then #9...

If this pops up Pistons (or would they already put in Charlotte) we've lost the pick.

Then #8...

Finally we can breathe here as we're at least keeping our pick - but now we're hoping to see Sacramento's logo come out of the envelope here.

If it gets to the 8th pick and the Kings logo pops up I will jump up and down like a little girl and then I will start dragging my butt on the carpet like a Dog, that's how Excited I will be.

ImHeisenberg · Post #8 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Mon May 19, 2014 12:50 am

MotownMadness wrote:If we get into the top 3 I might just cry. Could you imagine our future going forward with one of Wiggins, Parker or Exum. To grow with Drummond, Monroe and KCP.

If they get to pick 8, and call Sacramento, I will definitely begin to man-cry. If we were just starting our summer and we already have SVG and one of Wigs, Parker, Exum or Embiid, I would probably be a candidate for cardiac arrest from pure joy.

ImHeisenberg · Post #9 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Mon May 19, 2014 12:53 am

Kilo wrote:If the first seven go off the board as expected and we lose #9 t Charlotte it's not the end of the world to me because we wouldn't be missing out on an elite prospect type. It will suck of course.

I think there's a greater impetus to retain the pick than a couple weeks ago, because we're all expecting this team's days of being in the lottery to be over and done.

BSVG (before stan van gundy), most of us anticipated little growth and development from the team and another bad coach. So, odds were that we would have another lotto pick next year, so losing out this year isn't as big of a deal.

This is very likely the last draft where we'll have a decent shot at getting a game changer on a nice cheap contract again.

kurtis48239 · Post #10 » by **kurtis48239** » Mon May 19, 2014 1:00 am

ImHeisenberg wrote:
Kilo wrote:If the first seven go off the board as expected and we lose #9 t Charlotte it's not the end of the world to me because we wouldn't be missing out on an elite prospect type. It will suck of course.

I think there's a greater impetus to retain the pick than a couple weeks ago, because we're all expecting this team's days of being in the lottery to be over and done.

BSVG (before stan van gundy), most of us anticipated little growth and development from the team and another bad coach. So, odds were that we would have another lotto pick next year, so losing out this year isn't as big of a deal.

This is very likely the last draft where we'll have a decent shot at getting a game changer on a nice cheap contract again.

We couldnt just tank our asses off after all star game :banghead:

.I will most likel wait until after the tuesdays results and look them up on here,I agree with most ,my heart cant handle it.

dan2314 · Post #11 » by **dan2314** » Mon May 19, 2014 1:24 am

if only we finished 7th worst...
i heard it was 84% that we keep the pick..? How is it 72% we keep it, and 18% we lose it? Is 10% the likelyhood of no.1 or top 3? im guessing top 3, which isnt bad i guess. Cmon NBA, its time to market drummond into a superstar, please give us one more good pick before we leave the mid-lottery for next few years!

ComboGuardCity · Post #12 » by **ComboGuardCity** » Mon May 19, 2014 1:39 am

Losing the pick would really suck. Then again, a huge burden would be finally lifted. Hoping for top 3, expecting the worse.

Minas · Post #13 » by **Minas** » Mon May 19, 2014 1:52 am

I think (or at least hope) we're due for some lottery luck!

Post #14 » by **theBigLip** » Mon May 19, 2014 2:02 am

dan2314 wrote:if only we finished 7th worst...
i heard it was 84% that we keep the pick..? How is it 72% we keep it, and 18% we lose it? Is 10% the likelyhood of no.1 or top 3? im guessing top 3, which isnt bad i guess. Cmon NBA, its time to market drummond into a superstar, please give us one more good pick before we leave the mid-lottery for next few years!

Odds for the following:
1st .028
2nd .033
3rd .039
Add them up, it is 10% :-)

ChainLink · Post #15 » by **ChainLink** » Mon May 19, 2014 2:13 am

I know it's usually right before Game 2 of the Eastern Conf Finals, so it should be 8:00 EST...but does it also air on the same network as the game?

Kilo · Post #16 » by **Kilo** » Mon May 19, 2014 2:16 am

^Looks way better written out like -

1st - 2.8%
2nd - 3.3%
3rd - 3.9%

Though FWIW that ESPN Lotto Mock machine seems to have us lose our pick a helluva lot more run times than getting into the top three. Dat's not good as it's just playing the odds and thus is a proper representation.

Kilo · Post #17 » by **Kilo** » Mon May 19, 2014 2:20 am

Minas wrote:I think (or at least hope) we're due for some lottery luck!

I dunno - we had our divine intervention when we won huge the Darko year. I mean we traded Otis Thorpe for the #2 overall pick in the greatest draft in 20 years...

I can't claim that we are due. Only Cleveland is less due than us - and the outright tankers like Philly shouldn't be rewarded. We did drop back once or twice though and lost a coin flip another time though to pick later IIRC...

DetroitSho · Post #18 » by **DetroitSho** » Mon May 19, 2014 2:48 am

kurtis48239 wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:
Kilo wrote:If the first seven go off the board as expected and we lose #9 t Charlotte it's not the end of the world to me because we wouldn't be missing out on an elite prospect type. It will suck of course.

I think there's a greater impetus to retain the pick than a couple weeks ago, because we're all expecting this team's days of being in the lottery to be over and done.

BSVG (before stan van gundy), most of us anticipated little growth and development from the team and another bad coach. So, odds were that we would have another lotto pick next year, so losing out this year isn't as big of a deal.

This is very likely the last draft where we'll have a decent shot at getting a game changer on a nice cheap contract again.

We couldnt just tank our asses off after all star game .I will most likel wait until after the tuesdays results and look them up on here,I agree with most ,my heart cant handle it.

They went 7-23. Should they have gone 0-30? Can't get much worse than that.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using RealGM Forums mobile app

HotelVitale · Post #19 » by **HotelVitale** » Mon May 19, 2014 3:00 am

theBigLip wrote: I'd love a top 3 pick. If we get #1, take Wiggins. a #2 or #3, it would be interesting if we could trade down with Philly or Orlando and get 2 for 1 picks. Then take Exum/Stauskas? Randall/Smart? Parker/Harris?
48 more hours. Tick, tick, tick...

If we got #3, ORL could use either of Exum and Embiid so I doubt they'd be willing to trade another lotto pick for the right to choose between them. Plus they'd know we'd be f*cking ourselves if we took Embiid! (Guess it's possible if two teams jump them and they have 5 and 12...but would we prefer say Smart+Young to Exum?) Philly doesn't consider it unless they're really concerned about Embiid's health. Even then the tenth pick would be a bitter pill to swallow to move up one pick.

If we got #2, things get more interesting but I still don't know if either of those teams would give us another lotto pick just to take Parker/Wiggins instead of Exum/Embiid. Those four all have justifications for going #1 overall and those teams could use all of them, so not sure there's enough motive for talent-strapped teams to give up high picks.

DocRI · Post #20 » by **DocRI** » Mon May 19, 2014 4:59 am

Kilo wrote:It's going to be excruciating as a Piston fan as they slowly reveal the order starting at #14...

I could barely stand reading your post, Kilo, and I couldn't delete the rest of it fast enough when I quoted it. Congratulations, you actually gave me an anxiety attack just from READING what Tuesday night is going to be like (and your formatting was especially cruel and drew out the agony).

Well played, sir. I hope you're proud of yourself.