Max Extensions? Great analysis from Nate Silver

[theBigLip]

Here is his summary. Going MAX for Monroe doesn't seem like a great idea, although considering the scarcity of big men, will likely get the benefit of the doubt. Here is his summary:

This analysis also implies that there isn’t much intrinsic value in a draft pick above and beyond what a player gives you while he’s still on the rookie salary scale. Your player will be worth signing to a max extension only 5 percent of the time, and your expected profit on those extensions is only $11 million a pop. Having a 5 percent chance at an $11 million profit is worth just $550,000. By contrast, being too liberal about giving out max extensions to players like Irving can chip away at the value gained from them during their first several seasons.

The article can be found here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whe ... -max/#fn-7

[haulerch]

I really don't want Monroe for max money. But, I am resigned to the fact he's going to get a max offer.

[Notanoob]

Very cool article by Silver. I'm hoping that we don't actually have to sign Monroe to the max- if we're just paying him $12 million a year, he'd probably recoup his value.

Still, even if he does sign a max contract, I'd rather at least match it. I like his game and I hold out hope that he can improve with SVG coaching him.

[theBigLip]

Sort of makes me rethink about signing him. I've pretty much accepted that if we didn't easily sign him, we'd just match an offer and that would be the end of it. But if we could actually trade him for a couple of good wing players that are starters (and half the price of Monroe's new contract), I wonder if that might be the better move?

[The Penguin]

Sort of makes me rethink about signing him. I've pretty much accepted that if we didn't easily sign him, we'd just match an offer and that would be the end of it. But if we could actually trade him for a couple of good wing players that are starters (and half the price of Monroe's new contract), I wonder if that might be the better move?

That question may just be the one that shows how badly Joe screwed up last year. We don't really know if we can be Drummond/Monroe + shooters moving forward. Drummond's first year they almost never played together and last year they played the equivalent of 4 games worth of minutes together without Smith on the floor. According to 82games our best lineup was Drummond/Monroe/Singler/KCP/Jennings, though we only saw that group for 50 minuts of a lost season.

[Warspite]

Sort of makes me rethink about signing him. I've pretty much accepted that if we didn't easily sign him, we'd just match an offer and that would be the end of it. But if we could actually trade him for a couple of good wing players that are starters (and half the price of Monroe's new contract), I wonder if that might be the better move?

But you cant trade him for that value until after your sign him. Monroe has no trade value until 2015. You would be lucky to get 2 2nd rd picks and a bench player in a sign and trade.

If you wanted to trade Monroe it was the 2014 trade deadline or Draft day 2013.


Again what really is the difference between 4/46, 4/48 and 4/52? Is that 1 or 2 mil a yr going to break the bank?

Whatever the Lakers or Wizards offer him is going to be less than Max of what Pistons could offer him so you already get a discount.

[Clarity]

98% of players never are truly worth or recoup their value.

Who in the NBA is truly worth their contract right now aside from Lebron & Durant? Heck, how many players in any sport are worth their contract.

The marketplace determines the value, that's the playing field for Pro Sports.

Skilled 7 footers are scarce in this league, SVG has said that 100 x so far.

[ComboGuardCity]

When was the last time a a productive big man became a bad contract on his second contract. Injuries don't count.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[theBigLip]

98% of players never are truly worth or recoup their value.

Who in the NBA is truly worth their contract right now aside from Lebron & Durant? Heck, how many players in any sport are worth their contract.

The marketplace determines the value, that's the playing field for Pro Sports.

Skilled 7 footers are scarce in this league, SVG has said that 100 x so far.

Disagree. Most rookies (on their rookie contract) are worth their value. It is the second contract that is troublesome.

[paQo the BAWSER]

When was the last time a a productive big man became a bad contract on his second contract. Injuries don't count.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Boozer, Smith, West, Ilyasova, Sanders, Nene, McGee, DeAndre...

[engelbert321]

When was the last time a a productive big man became a bad contract on his second contract. Injuries don't count.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Boozer, Smith, West, Ilyasova, Sanders, Nene, McGee, DeAndre...

Add CV-DNP in that last. Oh lawd

[Blkbrd671]

If some team offers the max, then i say we either match it unless something of value is coming back. We have 0 incentive to let him walk go.

[Phenomenonsense]

When was the last time a a productive big man became a bad contract on his second contract. Injuries don't count.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Boozer, Smith, West, Ilyasova, Sanders, Nene, McGee, DeAndre...

Are you implying that nearly 21 and 12 boozer was bad? Who is DeAndre? Jordan? If so you're crazy. McGee? Sanders? West? Those are all injuries. Smith wasn't good in ATL? Ilyasova at 17 and 11.5 per 36 last year on 45% shooting was bad? He was injured this year. HE says injuries don't count and you say three injured players, a player who is productive, a player that was great on his second contract, a player in West that averaged 20 and 9 on his second contract, Smith who was in all-star contention, and then there is Nene. A player that has been roughly the same player his entire career. Nothing you said was smart.

[theBigLip]

If some team offers the max, then i say we either match it unless something of value is coming back. We have 0 incentive to let him walk go.

I agree. In strict accounting terms, he is an asset for our team. Why would we not get any value from him?

So if we can't come to agreement with him, we'll just match any offer he gets. He doesn't have a lot of choices there.

And lastly, can we get anything back in a sign and trade? Obviously not full value, but maybe enough. So we can't trade Monroe during the season if we match (that's my understanding of the CBA). So either sign and trade or wait a year. I'm fine with waiting that year anyways, since maybe SVG can come up with some reasonable lineups that will be effective.

[Kilo]

If he's offered a max and we match we can't trade him for a full year without his permission, and if he agrees to be traded he he can be traded mid-season of next year to any other team than his offersheet team, where he still can't go for one full year.

He's going to get four years, and at most we're looking at MAYBE getting him for a couple million less than max realistically - so if he gets a max offer, that $2M yearly and $8M over the length is not going to cause Stan to say "gee we better let him walk for nothing now...".

I'm really of two minds with Moose - on one side I say there is no way I trade him away, on the other hand I realize that he is the only desirable trade asset we have (outside of Dre of course) that would get us valuable return to help Stan and co fix and balance our team and make us better as soon as next season.

Because we move Smith to the four, and trade Moose for a elite or use Moose to move Jennings and bring in a PG that will help Drummond reach his full potential while young enough to be part of the Dre Peak Years core.

[Blkbrd671]

If some team offers the max, then i say we either match it unless something of value is coming back. We have 0 incentive to let him walk go.

I agree. In strict accounting terms, he is an asset for our team. Why would we not get any value from him?

So if we can't come to agreement with him, we'll just match any offer he gets. He doesn't have a lot of choices there.

And lastly, can we get anything back in a sign and trade? Obviously not full value, but maybe enough. So we can't trade Monroe during the season if we match (that's my understanding of the CBA). So either sign and trade or wait a year. I'm fine with waiting that year anyways, since maybe SVG can come up with some reasonable lineups that will be effective.

lol, its funny you mention that as i am a accountant

Obviously the signing team needs to provide incentive for us to let him go and not match. While in the past S&T don't typically yield huge value, i think with this new CBA, teams that have rights to RFA have more leverage.

[Kilo]

RFA's in S&T situations I believe hold almost all their value when the current team isn't in tax hell.

[Invictus88]

98% of players never are truly worth or recoup their value.

Who in the NBA is truly worth their contract right now aside from Lebron & Durant? Heck, how many players in any sport are worth their contract.

The marketplace determines the value, that's the playing field for Pro Sports.

Skilled 7 footers are scarce in this league, SVG has said that 100 x so far.

Disagree. Most rookies (on their rookie contract) are worth their value. It is the second contract that is troublesome.

This assumes that a team can draft suitable replacements for the talent they let go after their rookie contracts expire. This obviously has not been and will not be true (at least this year) for the Pistons. Otherwise we are just trading one contract extension for another.

Until we start having repeated successes in drafting and developing players then we can't count on the above becoming true. Furthermore, Detroit is not viewed as a highly desirable destination for free agency. So for us, Monroe is more valuable because we have the ability to sign and keep him here.

I'd love to say we are a franchise that has a wealth of talent / competition for spots to such a degree where we can just let players go and have 'the next guy in' step forward and seamlessly become the starter. But we are far from that.

[Clarity]

98% of players never are truly worth or recoup their value.

Who in the NBA is truly worth their contract right now aside from Lebron & Durant? Heck, how many players in any sport are worth their contract.

The marketplace determines the value, that's the playing field for Pro Sports.

Skilled 7 footers are scarce in this league, SVG has said that 100 x so far.

Disagree. Most rookies (on their rookie contract) are worth their value. It is the second contract that is troublesome.

Fair point but rookies should have to prove their worth. The NBA rookie pay scale is something I support big time.

[DetroitSho]

When was the last time a a productive big man became a bad contract on his second contract. Injuries don't count.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Boozer, Smith, West, Ilyasova, Sanders, Nene, McGee, DeAndre...

Let me help you out, Chicago wasn't the 2nd team Boozer played for, so go back and check what he did on his second contract. This guy said Sanders who hasn't even BEGAN his 2nd contract, so that's more fail there. Nene was extremely productive through the mid 2000s even despite the injuries, so you lose again. Deandre Jordan was leading candidate for DPOY this season for a whopping $10 million, really? I would say McGee would be the only one that MIGHT fit the criteria and he's had injuries so really it doesn't.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using RealGM Forums mobile app