Detroit's Strategy Going Forward - Evolving Opinion
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 5:55 pm
I was kind of bored and had some spare time to write this afternoon. I guess you can just give your opinion, call me crazy, tell me I'm way off point, say we have discussed this before, or return back to the 6 page thread of Gray. 
.
As @Entourage27 pointed out, SVG's stereotypical "system" back in Orlando featured a stretch-4 in Lewis paired next to Howard. Everybody knows this as he had a great run to the Finals, however, he did not always have this type of roster. The difference between just a "good coach" like Mike D'Antoni, who can have success and win a bunch of games in the regular season if he has the players that fit his system, and a "great coach" like Greg Popovich is that Pop can adjust, adapt, and change his system based on the unique skillsets that he and Buford have targeted and brought into San Antonio as well as the ability to develop a player's skills and then finding how they fit. I think a lot of us are under the same impression, we now have a great coach again in Detroit (finally
).
Looking at the most recent past champions: 2014 - San Antonio > Miami, 2013 - Miami > San Antonio, 2012 - Miami > Oklahoma City, 2011 - Dallas > Miami.
In term's of frontcourt: it's not like there's some "must have" setup in order to win a title, you can get away with having a different style assuming you can just execute it better than the opponent, or force them to play your game. Dallas had Chandler/Dirk as their frontcourt, I'd say Chandler being a defensive ace and limited offensively would be an understatement but Dirk can stretch the floor or post up. Bosh/Lebron (smallball) in Miami, both capable of posting up but also able to drive or spotup. San Antonio with Duncan's midrange/post up, Splitter's limited post up game, and Diaw's facilitating out of the post and on the perimeter. If Drummond develops into a truly elite center, we're going to have some ability to set the tone for the game.
The current projected Detroit roster (matching Monroe, trading nobody):
Andre Drummond - C
Aaron Gray - C
Greg Monroe - C/F
Josh Smith - F
Jonas Jerebko - F
Tony Mitchell - F
Kyle Singler - F
Luigi Datome - F
Carvier Martin - F
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - G
Jodie Meeks - G
Spencer Dinwiddie - G
Brandon Jennings - G
Will Bynum - G
Peyton Siva - G
I mean it's unlikely that it remains this way because Bynum should be traded and Mitchell should cut, no idea about Jerebko and Datome but I think they are going to be expirings so they might be moved or they could just be tested out.
I think most people would agree with these statements:
The strength of the roster last year: paint scoring and rebounding.
The weaknesses of the roster last year: 3pt shooting and perimeter defense.
The team also lacked a real "shot creator" and playmakers.
*There's no free agent small forward (that we can hypothetically afford) I would consider a real playmaker or shot creator at the position. Ariza/Tucker are 3&D. Can't afford Deng/Parsons/Hayward. Position is pretty weak.
*Greg Monroe and Josh Smith can both create shots out of the post and create opportunities for others with their passing. Maybe SVG's schemes and our new acquired spacing will be able to put them in a better position to showcase this ability. In our last game vs. OKC, we were able to see Greg Monroe working out of the high post as a creator, and it looked Noah-like.
*Kyle Singler started a bunch of games at SG where he was simply too slow to defend the smaller and quicker SGs. Part of our perimeter defense will be fixed by Singler being a full-time small forward and the emergence/development of Caldwell-Pope who has the athletic ability to develop into one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.
*Part of our 3PT shooting woes will be fixed by SVG placing Smith in a better position to succeed (in the paint - and not letting him leave), the addition of Jodie Meeks will help, and again, the emergence/development of Caldwell-Pope will impact our numbers.
*I also think that SVG holding players accountable and our improved bench and developing players (Drummond/Monroe?/KCP/Jennings?) will respond, while the whole unit will play with a bit more IQ and look more cohesive.
How the frontcourt rotation could work with no foul trouble: 48 minutes in a game = 96 C/PF minutes. Drummond=36, Monroe=30, Smith=25 (Smith also gets 5 minutes at SF), Gray/Jerebko=5 based on matchups. Drummond and Smith start, Monroe subs in for Drummond, then Drummond subs in for Smith which moves Monroe down to power forward. Could run the "famed" 1in4out with Drummond or Monroe at center and Jerebko or Singler at PF, and KCP/Meeks/Jennings. Again, just versatility, depending on matchups. If you believe in diminishing returns, it may be better to let Monroe go for 36 and Drummond 30, but we'll see how the offseason has affected his skillset.
The Monroe aspect of our offseason is easily the biggest piece and matching him to a contract can easily be supported or opposed. The thing that is interesting will be SVG's ability to adapt and utilize all three of the bigs correctly, because this team's strength will still be its paint scoring. The problem (evolving opinion here) about moving Monroe for lets say a PG or a SF which we could easily use and rationalize an upgrade at either is that it would take away from our team's special strength. Why would that be a problem? Because then we wouldn't be nearly as dominant with it. We might be more balanced overall, but not necessarily better off. If this makes sense (Monroe's minutes would be filled by Smith but then all of the backup minutes would be filled with Gray/Jerebko. We might get more production out of a better PG, but then we'd have Jenning's 8M bench salary holding us back.. and this is the first time we don't really have a lot of cash involved on the bench in what would be viewed as basically dead weight). It's not like the Spurs are trading Danny Green and Marco Belineli for a big that can just post up because they feel like they are weaker there.... they keep, use, and build with the shooters as a strength.
So why not give it a try having a top-end post impact player on the court at all times, and the strong majority of the time, two of them. It's going to take time for SVG to overhaul the roster, and I'd love to see an upgrade from Brandon Jennings because the league is extremely over populated with good point guards... (just right down the list: Teague, Rondo (cant shoot but still elite), Dwill (cant stay healthy), Kemba, DRose (cant stay healthy), Kyrie, Ty Lawson, Steph Curry, CP3, Conley, Holiday (:| even though I dont like him), Westbrook, Dragic/Bledsoe, Lillard, TP9, Lowry, and Wall) and it seems like they can all score a ton on any night and we're strapped with one that doesn't understand that the court has a basket on each end, but I don't think we are really going to get a significant upgrade over him without moving Monroe.
If the team disappoints and it's perfectly clear that we cannot succeed with these pieces, I'm sure a trade will be then be made. Having the President of Basketball Operations title means that during the season, like at the trade deadline, the situation could be re-assessed and then a move could be made either buying or selling now because we have all of our future picks. In my opinion, everything that has been done or should I say has not been done so far actually makes a ton of sense for SVG and this offseason is not flashy just as it wasn't expected to be, but that's alright... I'm not going to overreact and start calling for the man's head, we want leadership and stability here. Something we have not had in a long time.
.As @Entourage27 pointed out, SVG's stereotypical "system" back in Orlando featured a stretch-4 in Lewis paired next to Howard. Everybody knows this as he had a great run to the Finals, however, he did not always have this type of roster. The difference between just a "good coach" like Mike D'Antoni, who can have success and win a bunch of games in the regular season if he has the players that fit his system, and a "great coach" like Greg Popovich is that Pop can adjust, adapt, and change his system based on the unique skillsets that he and Buford have targeted and brought into San Antonio as well as the ability to develop a player's skills and then finding how they fit. I think a lot of us are under the same impression, we now have a great coach again in Detroit (finally
).Looking at the most recent past champions: 2014 - San Antonio > Miami, 2013 - Miami > San Antonio, 2012 - Miami > Oklahoma City, 2011 - Dallas > Miami.
In term's of frontcourt: it's not like there's some "must have" setup in order to win a title, you can get away with having a different style assuming you can just execute it better than the opponent, or force them to play your game. Dallas had Chandler/Dirk as their frontcourt, I'd say Chandler being a defensive ace and limited offensively would be an understatement but Dirk can stretch the floor or post up. Bosh/Lebron (smallball) in Miami, both capable of posting up but also able to drive or spotup. San Antonio with Duncan's midrange/post up, Splitter's limited post up game, and Diaw's facilitating out of the post and on the perimeter. If Drummond develops into a truly elite center, we're going to have some ability to set the tone for the game.
The current projected Detroit roster (matching Monroe, trading nobody):
Andre Drummond - C
Aaron Gray - C
Greg Monroe - C/F
Josh Smith - F
Jonas Jerebko - F
Tony Mitchell - F
Kyle Singler - F
Luigi Datome - F
Carvier Martin - F
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - G
Jodie Meeks - G
Spencer Dinwiddie - G
Brandon Jennings - G
Will Bynum - G
Peyton Siva - G
I mean it's unlikely that it remains this way because Bynum should be traded and Mitchell should cut, no idea about Jerebko and Datome but I think they are going to be expirings so they might be moved or they could just be tested out.
I think most people would agree with these statements:
The strength of the roster last year: paint scoring and rebounding.
The weaknesses of the roster last year: 3pt shooting and perimeter defense.
The team also lacked a real "shot creator" and playmakers.
*There's no free agent small forward (that we can hypothetically afford) I would consider a real playmaker or shot creator at the position. Ariza/Tucker are 3&D. Can't afford Deng/Parsons/Hayward. Position is pretty weak.
*Greg Monroe and Josh Smith can both create shots out of the post and create opportunities for others with their passing. Maybe SVG's schemes and our new acquired spacing will be able to put them in a better position to showcase this ability. In our last game vs. OKC, we were able to see Greg Monroe working out of the high post as a creator, and it looked Noah-like.
*Kyle Singler started a bunch of games at SG where he was simply too slow to defend the smaller and quicker SGs. Part of our perimeter defense will be fixed by Singler being a full-time small forward and the emergence/development of Caldwell-Pope who has the athletic ability to develop into one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.
*Part of our 3PT shooting woes will be fixed by SVG placing Smith in a better position to succeed (in the paint - and not letting him leave
), the addition of Jodie Meeks will help, and again, the emergence/development of Caldwell-Pope will impact our numbers. *I also think that SVG holding players accountable and our improved bench and developing players (Drummond/Monroe?/KCP/Jennings?) will respond, while the whole unit will play with a bit more IQ and look more cohesive.
How the frontcourt rotation could work with no foul trouble: 48 minutes in a game = 96 C/PF minutes. Drummond=36, Monroe=30, Smith=25 (Smith also gets 5 minutes at SF), Gray/Jerebko=5 based on matchups. Drummond and Smith start, Monroe subs in for Drummond, then Drummond subs in for Smith which moves Monroe down to power forward. Could run the "famed" 1in4out with Drummond or Monroe at center and Jerebko or Singler at PF, and KCP/Meeks/Jennings. Again, just versatility, depending on matchups. If you believe in diminishing returns, it may be better to let Monroe go for 36 and Drummond 30, but we'll see how the offseason has affected his skillset.
The Monroe aspect of our offseason is easily the biggest piece and matching him to a contract can easily be supported or opposed. The thing that is interesting will be SVG's ability to adapt and utilize all three of the bigs correctly, because this team's strength will still be its paint scoring. The problem (evolving opinion here) about moving Monroe for lets say a PG or a SF which we could easily use and rationalize an upgrade at either is that it would take away from our team's special strength. Why would that be a problem? Because then we wouldn't be nearly as dominant with it. We might be more balanced overall, but not necessarily better off. If this makes sense (Monroe's minutes would be filled by Smith but then all of the backup minutes would be filled with Gray/Jerebko. We might get more production out of a better PG, but then we'd have Jenning's 8M bench salary holding us back.. and this is the first time we don't really have a lot of cash involved on the bench in what would be viewed as basically dead weight). It's not like the Spurs are trading Danny Green and Marco Belineli for a big that can just post up because they feel like they are weaker there.... they keep, use, and build with the shooters as a strength.
So why not give it a try having a top-end post impact player on the court at all times, and the strong majority of the time, two of them. It's going to take time for SVG to overhaul the roster, and I'd love to see an upgrade from Brandon Jennings because the league is extremely over populated with good point guards... (just right down the list: Teague, Rondo (cant shoot but still elite), Dwill (cant stay healthy), Kemba, DRose (cant stay healthy), Kyrie, Ty Lawson, Steph Curry, CP3, Conley, Holiday (:| even though I dont like him), Westbrook, Dragic/Bledsoe, Lillard, TP9, Lowry, and Wall) and it seems like they can all score a ton on any night and we're strapped with one that doesn't understand that the court has a basket on each end, but I don't think we are really going to get a significant upgrade over him without moving Monroe.
If the team disappoints and it's perfectly clear that we cannot succeed with these pieces, I'm sure a trade will be then be made. Having the President of Basketball Operations title means that during the season, like at the trade deadline, the situation could be re-assessed and then a move could be made either buying or selling now because we have all of our future picks. In my opinion, everything that has been done or should I say has not been done so far actually makes a ton of sense for SVG and this offseason is not flashy just as it wasn't expected to be, but that's alright... I'm not going to overreact and start calling for the man's head, we want leadership and stability here. Something we have not had in a long time.
.