To finish .500 for the year we'd have to finish 36-18

bstein14 · Post #1 » by **bstein14** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:27 pm

Usually the benchmark to make the playoffs in the east is a record at about .500 (41-41). Of course, this can be give or take a game or two but its fairly likely that 41-41 would be good enough to get us in IMO.

If we had to get to .500 and be 41-41 to make the playoffs(which is a realistic record IMO) we would have to finish 36-18 our final 54 games(After our 5-23 start) which means winning 2 out of every 3 for the rest of the year. That seems incredibly hard for a 5-23 team to win 2 out of every 3 over 54 games. Don't get me wrong, I'm hopeful.... and I think we are good enough to start playing .500 ball but that isn't close to getting us into the playoffs... we'd have to win .666 of our games which is something only elite level teams do.

BadMofoPimp · Post #2 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:35 pm

Has that been done before?

Natopher · Post #3 » by **Natopher** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:38 pm

bstein14 wrote:Usually the benchmark to make the playoffs in the east is a record at about .500 (41-41). Of course, this can be give or take a game or two but its fairly likely that 41-41 would be good enough to get us in IMO.

If we had to get to .500 and be 41-41 to make the playoffs(which is a realistic record IMO) we would have to finish 36-18 our final 54 games(After our 5-23 start) which means winning 2 out of every 3 for the rest of the year. That seems incredibly hard for a 5-23 team to win 2 out of every 3 over 54 games. Don't get me wrong, I'm hopeful.... and I think we are good enough to start playing .500 ball but that isn't close to getting us into the playoffs... we'd have to win .666 of our games which is something only elite level teams do.

I'd normally agree, but so far this year the 7 and 8 seeds both have records below .500. So this might be one of those years where a couple below .500 teams make it into the playoffs which makes us achieving that goal a little bit easier. It will definitely be tough though. We'll need to keep playing well and a little bit of luck to make it.

captainrebel · Post #4 » by **captainrebel** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:50 pm

If Pistons make the playoffs after this horrible start SVG is COY.

princeofpalace · Post #5 » by **princeofpalace** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 5:03 pm

I doubt we make the playoffs but we will end the season on an upward trajectory. Who knows where we would be right now if we dumped Smith sooner, with the right FA acquisitions, we make the playoffs next year

Natopher · Post #6 » by **Natopher** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 5:09 pm

We're currently only 5.5 games out of the 8th seed. We don't have to be great to make it to the playoffs, we just have to win 6 more games than everyone between us and the 8th spot over the rest of the season. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's definitely possible.

Piston Pete · Post #7 » by **Piston Pete** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 5:32 pm

If we're going to make a playoff push, then let's do it the right way and trade for an upgrade at SF.

If we're gonna tank, let's do it the right way and play the kids and trade for expirings/picks.

mattao313 · Post #8 » by **mattao313** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 5:42 pm

that would be incredible if that happened but I highly doubt it and like others said I don't think we need to be a .500 team to make the playoffs.

Billl · Post #9 » by **Billl** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 5:48 pm

I'm glad to see Dre improving and am obviously glad Smith is gone, but..... seriously, another 9th pick? We're going to improve just enough to fight for the last playoff spot and miss out on a top pick again. We're never going to be a good team without a viable #1 scoring option.

Post #10 » by **theBigLip** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:05 pm

bstein14 wrote:Usually the benchmark to make the playoffs in the east is a record at about .500 (41-41). Of course, this can be give or take a game or two but its fairly likely that 41-41 would be good enough to get us in IMO.

If we had to get to .500 and be 41-41 to make the playoffs(which is a realistic record IMO) we would have to finish 36-18 our final 54 games(After our 5-23 start) which means winning 2 out of every 3 for the rest of the year. That seems incredibly hard for a 5-23 team to win 2 out of every 3 over 54 games. Don't get me wrong, I'm hopeful.... and I think we are good enough to start playing .500 ball but that isn't close to getting us into the playoffs... we'd have to win .666 of our games which is something only elite level teams do.

Nice post and good perspective. Another way to look at this (and a bit more optimistic) is that the current 8th seed is Miami with a .438 winning percentage. If that winning percentage holds for #8, then we only need 36 wins (.438*82 games = 35.916 wins). So our 8-23 needs to become 36-46, so we'd have to go 28-23 the rest of the way, a much more realistic goal.

DBC10 · Post #11 » by **DBC10** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:20 pm

Hell, if the Raptors pulled off something similar (not of this magnitude) then I think we can do it, especially with the guys ACTUALLY playing Stan Van Gundy ball (PnR to death or kickout to 3). We might be a sneaky 8th spot at this small sample rate.

ImHeisenberg · Post #12 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 7:51 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:Has that been done before?

I referred to this article - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1092 ... ba-history

None of those turnaround would be as impressive as this theoretical scenario. We had a 17% winning percentage before the 3-game win streak.

To go from 17% and go 67% for the rest of the season would be a historical turnaround.

They need to win a heck of a lot more than 3 games in a row to honestly make me believe they're going to make the playoffs. But, it's a start. This is a wholly different team without Smith.

I'm just going to enjoy the ride, regardless of whether the playoffs are going to happen or not. I can't see them going out west and sweeping those trips against teams like San Antonio, Dallas, Golden State, etc.

BadMofoPimp · Post #13 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 7:55 pm

ImHeisenberg wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:Has that been done before?

I referred to this article - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1092 ... ba-history

None of those turnaround would be as impressive as this theoretical scenario. We had a 17% winning percentage before the 3-game win streak.

To go from 17% and go 67% for the rest of the season would be a historical turnaround.

They need to win a heck of a lot more than 3 games in a row to honestly make me believe they're going to make the playoffs. But, it's a start. This is a wholly different team without Smith.

I'm just going to enjoy the ride, regardless of whether the playoffs are going to happen or not. I can't see them going out west and sweeping those trips against teams like San Antonio, Dallas, Golden State, etc.

At this point, I would just like to see a marked improvement from last year.

Canadafan · Post #14 » by **Canadafan** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 8:03 pm

Get a SF and go for it!

ComboGuardCity · Post #15 » by **ComboGuardCity** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:04 pm

5 games out if things hold up.

Natopher · Post #16 » by **Natopher** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:36 pm

ComboGuardCity wrote:5 games out if things hold up.

Just came here to post that we're only 5 games out but it seems you beat me to it

Don't wanna get my hopes up too much, but I really do think playoffs are a realistic scenario for this team.

DetroitSho · Post #17 » by **DetroitSho** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:51 pm

Billl wrote:I'm glad to see Dre improving and am obviously glad Smith is gone, but..... seriously, another 9th pick? We're going to improve just enough to fight for the last playoff spot and miss out on a top pick again. We're never going to be a good team without a viable #1 scoring option.

Where is the cutoff point in the draft where #1 scoring options are no longer able to be drafted?

Natopher · Post #18 » by **Natopher** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:58 pm

DetroitSho wrote:
Billl wrote:I'm glad to see Dre improving and am obviously glad Smith is gone, but..... seriously, another 9th pick? We're going to improve just enough to fight for the last playoff spot and miss out on a top pick again. We're never going to be a good team without a viable #1 scoring option.

Where is the cutoff point in the draft where #1 scoring options are no longer able to be drafted?

Where was Isaiah Thomas drafted? 30th pick in the 2nd round? Let's be safe and say that's the cut off.

DetroitSho · Post #19 » by **DetroitSho** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:06 pm

Natopher wrote:
DetroitSho wrote:
Billl wrote:I'm glad to see Dre improving and am obviously glad Smith is gone, but..... seriously, another 9th pick? We're going to improve just enough to fight for the last playoff spot and miss out on a top pick again. We're never going to be a good team without a viable #1 scoring option.

Where is the cutoff point in the draft where #1 scoring options are no longer able to be drafted?

Where was Isaiah Thomas drafted? 30th pick in the 2nd round? Let's be safe and say that's the cut off.

Dinwiddie was drafted later than that and people around here got him pegged for PG of the future. I'm pretty sure a 9th pick could get us a really good "such and such of the future". I'm not sure what the beef is with drafting mid lottery other than bragging rights to say we have a high pick (which is pretty weird to brag about).

Post #20 » by **Snakebites** » Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:08 pm

Eh, I don't think the playoffs are a realistic expectation at this point.

An improvement that gives us something to build on for next year? That, on the other hand, is possible.