RealGM

Post Smith predictions - How many games do we win, do we make the playoffs, and if so, how far do we go?

I was about to make a similar thread. I wanted to include a poll asking people's opinions on what they thought our winning% would be from here on out with the following choices:
.370 or under, Around .400, Around .430, Around .465, Around .500, Around .530, Around .565, Around .600, .630 or higher. I don't want to step on your toes and make a new thread, but could you add a poll like that to this one?

As for the answer, obviously we're not going to revert back to our .167 winning percentage that we had with Josh Smith. We're also not going to keep up our .889 percentage without him. While I usually like to be guarded in my predictions, I have seen absolutely zero evidence in these last 9 games that we can somehow lose more games than we win the rest of the season. My initial thought is that we are a .517 team, so I plugged that in and got 23-22 over our last 45. My gut feeling is we will win at least one more than that, so I changed it to 24-21, giving us a total record of 37-45 (32-22 post-Smith). That .451 percentage would be good enough for the 7th seed in the East if all other teams continued playing as they are.

I think we're going to play well enough to get back to .500, so 28-17 the rest of the way. There are enough teams packing it in and enough mediocre teams in the East to do it.

I'm more interested to see what seed we make it to and who we match up with. The Bulls will murder us... too much talent. The Hawks are playing the best, but we could beat them in a playoff series. As for the Raps and Wiz, we'd have a chance, but it's unlikely. I'd love to somehow get matched up with Cleveland -- we'd probably lose, but even the chance to beat LeBron is worth the risk.

I'm going with the same rate I had before the season: .560-.600 I think that calculated out to 35-37 total wins after the 5-23 start.

We win 38 games, make the playoffs, get beat 4-1 by Chicago, and sign Monroe in the offseason!

I'm not worried about any team in the East killing us in the playoffs...we need to get there first though

I think we'll come in somewhere in the range of 35-40 wins. I think a .500 record is a stretch, but luckily that doesn't look like it will be necessary for the playoffs this year.

I had originally predicted 38-42, then thought they'd fall well short of that after the horrible start, and now don't know what to think after the latest 8-1 spurt. Obviously they're not going to maintain an 8-1 pace the rest of the way and obviously they're not going to revert back to the pace of their 5-23 start. Both are so extreme and the answer is somewhere between the two, so I don't know what to think. I'm sticking to my 12 game sample size post-Josh, so I'll come back after 3 more games and make a new prediction.

I said we were easily .500 without the cancer before we cut him & people laughed.

I was wrong, we probably are better than .500 without the cancer.

I doubt the Pistons win more than 36 games. Put me down for 32 wins.

I think we finish out that season at .500 or better. Not sure if that gets us into the playoffs, but I'm officially off the tank train. I want wins, I want a culture change, I want these kids to get the experience of playing later into the season. I want to see what SVG will do with a middle of the road pick, find that diamond in the rough.

I said 30-35 wins before the season, I will stick to my guns, just because. I hope we surpass it, I think like 35-38 wins will be enough to make the playoffs in the East. It would be great to see the Palace filled up with people to watch a playoff series and to support the quick growth this team has went through.

we have to go 28-17 (.622) the rest of the way to get to .500.

that means we'd have to play roughly at the same level as the wizards have been playing this season.


- we have 21 home games left, 24 road games.
- we have 22 games left against teams that are .500 or better (14 against eastern conference teams, 8 against western teams)

either way we're going to have to beat some good teams to make the playoffs, and losing to 'teams we should beat' pretty much isn't an option.


it's gonna be tough. if we can get in the playoffs by being a little under .500 that would certainly help, although I don't like counting on other teams to lose.

Finn McCool wrote:I doubt the Pistons win more than 36 games. Put me down for 32 wins.

Free beer for this man, courtesy of me

Finn McCool wrote:I doubt the Pistons win more than 36 games. Put me down for 32 wins.

Dead on pick. Well done!

theBigLip wrote:We win 38 games, make the playoffs, get beat 4-1 by Chicago, and sign Monroe in the offseason!

Well I got the first 3 wrong already, and will probably get the 4th wrong once free agency starts