THE Brandon Jennings Question

DocRI · Post #1 » by **DocRI** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:33 pm

Simply put — is he the PG of our next championship-winning team? And please, no snap judgments either way on this; I know Jennings has his fans and his detractors, but I'm asking for an honest debate.

I know it's easy to get excited about, well, all things Pistons since we cut Smith. But Jennings has undeniably been pretty outstanding lately, he's still only 25, and he'll probably be our most reasonably-priced option; if you figure Goran Dragic and other PGs of his ilk will land max or near-max contracts as free agents, a Brandon Jennings who has bought into SVG's system and already has rapport with his teammates extended for $10 — $11M per year seems like a solid investment.

But here's the other jaw-dropping discovery I made lately — his career stats are eerily similar to the early-career stats of our last championship-winning PG, Chauncey Billups. In five-plus seasons, Jennings' FG% has ranged from .371 to .418 (shooting an even .400 so far this year); in his first six seasons, Billups shot between .337 and .423 (although his low came in an injury-shortened 13-game-season). Still, in his 7th season when he helped win us a championship, Billups shot .394. I'm not trying to cherry-pick stats here, but FG% is what Jennings gets rightfully hammered for, yet Billups shot at about the same clip during his early seasons and then our championship year. Plus, so far in his career Jennings has averaged 6.1 assists to 2.4 turnovers per game; in Billups' first six years, he averaged 3.92 assists to 1.84 turnovers (and in the '03-'04 championhip season, it was 5.7 assists to 2.4 turnovers). Again, eerily similar. Granted, Jennings will clearly NEVER be the rebounder or the defender that Billups was, but the two share some of the same warts. The right coach and teammates brought the best out of Billups and covered his shortcomings; could the same be true for Jennings?

Disclosure time — I NEVER thought Jennings could actually be our PGOTF; I thought for sure he'd be a reasonably-priced stop gap who we would look to upgrade come the 2016 offseason. But unless we miss the playoffs, strike gold on lotto night and wind up drafting Muiday, where are we realistically gonna find a better option than Jennings? There's a reason the Chris Pauls, John Walls, and Steph Currys of the world don't hit the open market. And we did win a title with a PG who shot around 40% before, so if Jennings keeps running the offense well, can we (and, more importantly, SVG) live with that?

Before the season, I was on board for shipping Jennings out with Smith for Deron Freakin' Williams; now, I honestly can't believe I'm contemplating him as a long term piece alongside Drummond and Monroe. Do we trust him, or is this pure fool's gold?

whitehops · Post #2 » by **whitehops** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:43 pm

to be quite honest the way our offense plays we don't need an all-star PG to run the offense. as long as Jennings can continue to make smart decisions on offense and give effort on defense then we can build a contender. a lot of it has to do with the team as a whole, not necessarily one position or one player.

example: the heat went to the finals four times in a row with a combo of Mario chalmers and Norris cole as their PG's. obviously they had other players that compensated for their lack of talent (and he offense rarely ran through them) but so goes the expression - there's more than one way to skin a cat.

MotownMadness · Post #3 » by **MotownMadness** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:44 pm

I don't want him as our PG of the future. He's to inefficient and is a bad defender. He's definitely gotten better lately and is exciting when he gets hot. But the two things I value most in players is they're defense and efficiency. Jennings would be sweet as a sixth man though.

fekz · Post #4 » by **fekz** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:50 pm

He's the best we have for now. If he's willing to work on aspects of his game, he certainly could be our future PG. However, that requires a summer of learning to finish with his right hand (too many missed layups), finish through contact, and having restraint when it comes to when to shoot and when not to. I'm skeptical that he will be disciplined enough to pick up on those three things.

Piston Pete · Post #5 » by **Piston Pete** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:51 pm

If our plan is to continue to run the offense thru Monroe and Drummond.....we really just need a ball-facilitating 3 and D type PG.

mattao313 · Post #6 » by **mattao313** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:31 pm

I really don't know. I don't hate Jennings like some do I really want him to succeed I love rooting for the underdog. He has some very good quality you want in your PG very underrated court vision, passion for the game plays like he has a chip on his shoulder, and a good leader from what I seen this season. He's also not scared to take the big shot and somewhat clutch too. Hit the game winner in San Antonio and seem to always hit a three in times when we need it the most. On the down side he has some glaring negatives to that I'm not going to get in to detail cause we all know what they are. If he can play like he did in the beginning of the season before the slump and in the post Josh Smith era than I'm cool with him.

I really don't think we can get a better PG right now maybe in the future yeah. In off season who can we get Goran?very doubtful. Reggie Jackson? Is he really any better than Jennings? In the draft sure but we would have to be lucky or have a decent pick. I don't want to trade him just to trade him plus he probably has negative if not zero trade value anyway his contract is really not all that bad either. I would rather keep Jennings and go after other free agents like SF's.

Minas · Post #7 » by **Minas** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:49 pm

There's an interesting way of thinking regarding PGs in the NBA. Because the position is so deep with so many great players, teams are better off allocating resources (salary) to other positions where they will gain more of an advantage. In terms of the Pistons for example, I think we would be better off spending to upgrade on the wing to a max player (Jimmy Butler for argument's sake) rather than upgrading to a PG like Ty Lawson (again, just an example). I think the upgrade from Singler to Butler moves the needle for us much more than Jennings to Lawson/Dragic etc. It gives us an advantage against the rest of the league where star wings are a lot rarer than star PGs.

The Mavs seemed to do this in the off-season when they decided to spend all their money on a wing (Parsons) and play with average PGs in Nelson, Harris etc - then they traded for Rondo :lol:

With that said, although I'm a big Jennings fan I don't know if he'll ever be a championship winning PG. At least definitely not as a 1st or 2nd option. But if Dre becomes peak Dwight Howard, we keep Moose and he continues to develop as well as picking up a star wing I think it could be possible to win a chip with him as our PG. I agree that he would be a great 6th man btw.

Post #8 » by **Cowology** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:09 pm

The Billups argument gets used with every crappy young pg in the league, buts the exception not the rule. I'm not a fan.

Southern Piston · Post #9 » by **Southern Piston** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:27 pm

This is really his first chance to be a leader. So far the results are good. I think he could be a pg for a championship team. But again so could Mario Chalmers. So we just got to see him grow. I was all about ridding him for a 2nd rd pick three weeks ago. You can't really tell as a fan how bad the aching tooth is(Josh Smith) or is it a combination. I wouldn't be suprised if he looses his positive energy in 15 games, but maybe we make the playoffs, and he continues to turn the corner and improve all the way to the end of his contract. Then what do you do?

Kilo · Post #10 » by **Kilo** » Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:46 pm

Sell high ASAP. You ain't ever contending with Brandon Jennings as your starting pg.

MrBigShot · Post #11 » by **MrBigShot** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:25 am

No, he is not the PG of the future, and he will never, ever have the impact that Chauncey had on this team during his prime before he got complacent (and the impact he had on Denver the first year he was there). Chauncey could actually play defense, he was a better leader, a better finisher, a better shooter, and nowhere near as streaky. Chauncey had 10 seasons where he shot 38% or more from downtown, including 5 shooting 40% or above. Jennings on the other hand doesn't have a single season shooting that well from deep, and his overall FG% leaves a lot to be desired. As does his ability to get to he line. If I remember correctly Chauncey managed to finish 4th in MVP voting in 05-06...his impact went well beyond the stats.

Jennings is too inconsistent and inefficient, and not a good defender. So yeah, he's not the PG of the future imo. But he has played admirably and as long as he is a piston I will always root for him to succeed.

Minas · Post #12 » by **Minas** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:34 am

MrBigShot wrote:No, he is not the PG of the future, and he will never, ever have the impact that Chauncey had on this team during his prime before he got complacent (and the impact he had on Denver the first year he was there). Chauncey could actually play defense, he was a better leader, a better finisher, a better shooter, and nowhere near as streaky. Chauncey had 10 seasons where he shot 38% or more from downtown, including 5 shooting 40% or above. Jennings on the other hand doesn't have a single season shooting that well from deep, and his overall FG% leaves a lot to be desired. As does his ability to get to he line. If I remember correctly Chauncey managed to finish 4th in MVP voting in 05-06...his impact went well beyond the stats.

Jennings is too inconsistent and inefficient, and not a good defender. So yeah, he's not the PG of the future imo. But he has played admirably and as long as he is a piston I will always root for him to succeed.

Great post, I'm a Jennings fan but comparing to him to Chauncey is ridiculous.

rmfc · Post #13 » by **rmfc** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:36 am

Sell high.

Lionlifer · Post #14 » by **Lionlifer** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 1:30 am

I'm torn on this.

Part of me says sell high. The other part of me wants a shot at the playoffs, and there's no way we get a better PG in the trade. Do we really want to hand the team over to DJ and SD? I say keep him, make a run at the playoffs, dump him in the offseason.

mercury · Post #15 » by **mercury** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:20 am

mercury · Post #16 » by **mercury** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:23 am

mercury · Post #17 » by **mercury** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:24 am

Even after todays great performance no way is he the future PG... he's making the chuckit it shots now... but a lot of these are not good decisions.

BadMofoPimp · Post #18 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 4:26 am

Jennings is young and starting to mature. I think he will be around for a while. Who knows? He has incredible talent and SVG is getting through to him.

Van Gundy likes to quiz his players during shoot arounds and whereas Jennings was once silent he now frequently speaks up and answers the coach's questions. "Stan wants me to talk more," Jennings said. "The fact that this is my fifth or sixth year, it's time for me to start talking and be that leader. Also, I'm still trying to learn the game of basketball. "He's really teaching and he joked one day, said 'I think after basketball you might be a coach.' I said, 'No, I'm cool in that.' I'm just trying to learn and learn from him and what he thinks in terms of basketball."

treefi · Post #19 » by **treefi** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:06 am

Kilo wrote:Sell high ASAP. You ain't ever contending with Brandon Jennings as your starting pg.

I am still leaning towards selling high and wonder if the system SVG is running would enhance any PG's offensive statistics.. Augustin has improved a lot since Smith was cut too.

Does this mean a Dragic-level PG would easily put up 20 and 8 on this team? Or is Jennings truly playing out of his mind... Has he taken the next step? The system? I'm not sure... Though I don't think Jameer Nelson was ever nearly as good as he once seemed either.

Not going to stress about it though. 8-)

SVG knows. :nod:

treefi · Post #20 » by **treefi** » Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:12 am

Minas wrote:
MrBigShot wrote:No, he is not the PG of the future, and he will never, ever have the impact that Chauncey had on this team during his prime before he got complacent (and the impact he had on Denver the first year he was there). Chauncey could actually play defense, he was a better leader, a better finisher, a better shooter, and nowhere near as streaky. Chauncey had 10 seasons where he shot 38% or more from downtown, including 5 shooting 40% or above. Jennings on the other hand doesn't have a single season shooting that well from deep, and his overall FG% leaves a lot to be desired. As does his ability to get to he line. If I remember correctly Chauncey managed to finish 4th in MVP voting in 05-06...his impact went well beyond the stats.

Jennings is too inconsistent and inefficient, and not a good defender. So yeah, he's not the PG of the future imo. But he has played admirably and as long as he is a piston I will always root for him to succeed.

Great post, I'm a Jennings fan but comparing to him to Chauncey is ridiculous.

As impossible as it is to believe, Chauncey was MUCH WORSE than Jennings in every phase of the game (besides defense) through their first few years in the league... Just like Chauncey, if Jennings can get his 3% around 40%, it doesn't matter if his FG% is 37-41%.

Like Chauncey in his prime, Jennings PROTECTS the ball and hardly ever turns it over even with it in his hands constantly... Even when he is in scoring mode, or when he passed less when he was younger.. His lack of turnovers have always been impressive to me. I'm pretty sure Jennings has actually always been among the best 15 in the league or so for assists per turnover ratio.

I can see the comparison... Still not buying it though.

and yeah, without a miracle turnaround defensively, he'll never be close to an equal to Chauncey. His effort is definitely much better on that end, and for the first time.. ever.. he appears to at least be average defensively during this streak. Dare I say he is nearly playing 'solid' defensively? lol

If Jennings becomes the next Chauncey, we're winning a championship in a few years, if not next year. ha