Draft Lottery 2015

Post #1 » by **theBigLip** » Mon May 4, 2015 10:15 pm

Two weeks away. This could have a major impact on our rebuilding plans.

The odds:
We got the 8th position for the lottery.
2.8 percent chance for #1
3.3 percent chance for #2
3.9 percent chance for #3
72.4 percent chance for #8
16.8 percent chance for #9
.8 percent chance for #10
.0 percent chance for #11 (miniscule but possible)

Top picks (Confident top 6 will all be gone before we get a #8 pick IMHO):
1. Towns
2. Okafor
3. Mudiay
4. Russell
5. Porzingis
6. Winslow

Available at #8 in rough order of value:
Cauley-Stein
Hezonja
Looney
Turner
Johnson
Oubre
Kaminsky

Bottomline:
We have a 10% chance of getting someone from the top list and getting an immediate starter and possible All Star.
We have a 90% chance of getting someone from the second list and getting a future starter.

ImHeisenberg · Post #2 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Mon May 4, 2015 11:55 pm

theBigLip wrote:Two weeks away. This could have a major impact on our rebuilding plans.

The odds:
We got the 8th position for the lottery.
0.00 percent chance for #1
0.00 percent chance for #2
0.00 percent chance for #3
.01 percent chance for #8
99.99 percent chance for #9

Fixed. We get leaped every damn year.

aad · Post #3 » by **aad** » Tue May 5, 2015 2:03 am

Im hoping we stay at 8 this year but for some reason I think we will move up because we dont need any of the top four I think towns will be more of a center and we stacked in the backcourt with jackson kcp jennings and dinwiddie and meeks

engelbert321 · Post #4 » by **engelbert321** » Tue May 5, 2015 2:11 am

ImHeisenberg wrote:
theBigLip wrote:Two weeks away. This could have a major impact on our rebuilding plans.

The odds:
We got the 8th position for the lottery.
0.00 percent chance for #1
0.00 percent chance for #2
0.00 percent chance for #3
.01 percent chance for #8
99.99 percent chance for #9

Fixed. We get leaped every damn year.

LOL this. We usually are the ones that get screwed

sc8581 · Post #5 » by **sc8581** » Tue May 5, 2015 2:22 am

If we can't get Towns or Winslow I won't be relying on our pick to do much of anything next year.

DETermination · Post #6 » by **DETermination** » Tue May 5, 2015 2:49 am

please basketball gods just once give us a top pick.

Blkbrd671 · Post #7 » by **Blkbrd671** » Tue May 5, 2015 2:50 am

ImHeisenberg wrote:
theBigLip wrote:Two weeks away. This could have a major impact on our rebuilding plans.

The odds:
We got the 8th position for the lottery.
0.00 percent chance for #1
0.00 percent chance for #2
0.00 percent chance for #3
.01 percent chance for #8
99.99 percent chance for #9

Fixed. We get leaped every damn year.

Cav's chance of getting #1 pick , 99%.................but they aren't in the lotto............shut up they'll figure out a way

sc8581 · Post #8 » by **sc8581** » Tue May 5, 2015 2:54 am

Blkbrd671 wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:
theBigLip wrote:Two weeks away. This could have a major impact on our rebuilding plans.

The odds:
We got the 8th position for the lottery.
0.00 percent chance for #1
0.00 percent chance for #2
0.00 percent chance for #3
.01 percent chance for #8
99.99 percent chance for #9

Fixed. We get leaped every damn year.

Cav's chance of getting #1 pick , 99%.................but they aren't in the lotto............shut up they'll figure out a way

They'll trade Love back to Minnesota for their pick

zeebneeb · Post #9 » by **zeebneeb** » Tue May 5, 2015 5:14 am

Man, how great would it be to land a top three pick, and have all this money, established talent, and hope for next year? This is already shaping up to be the turn around year (playoffs next year people) but adding a top three? Cherry on top people. IT'S HAPPENING.

Post #10 » by **theBigLip** » Tue May 5, 2015 5:34 am

ImHeisenberg wrote:
theBigLip wrote:Two weeks away. This could have a major impact on our rebuilding plans.

The odds:
We got the 8th position for the lottery.
0.00 percent chance for #1
0.00 percent chance for #2
0.00 percent chance for #3
.01 percent chance for #8
99.99 percent chance for #9

Fixed. We get leaped every damn year.

It would be funnier if it wasn't so true.

The Penguin · Post #11 » by **The Penguin** » Tue May 5, 2015 12:41 pm

ImHeisenberg wrote:
theBigLip wrote:Two weeks away. This could have a major impact on our rebuilding plans.

The odds:
We got the 8th position for the lottery.
0.00 percent chance for #1
0.00 percent chance for #2
0.00 percent chance for #3
.01 percent chance for #8
99.99 percent chance for #9

Fixed. We get leaped every damn year.

Heisenberg is dead on. We aren't jumping up. Gores doesn't moan and complain and the squeaky wheel gets the grease. After watching the Cavs jump to number 1 AGAIN last year and our karma for not flat out tanking knock us down yet again, I'll believe the lotto is fixed until they actually pull the numbers in front of a live studio & television audience and I believe we aren't a franchise the league thinks needs the boost to be revived.

Post #12 » by **Snakebites** » Tue May 5, 2015 4:06 pm

Insert obligatory Snakebites "lottery conspiracy and superstition are nonsense and nobody should believe them" post here.

I'm tired of making the same arguments over and over again if people aren't interested in them.

Post #13 » by **theBigLip** » Tue May 5, 2015 5:09 pm

When millions of dollars are at stake, there is always an interest in changing the results. That being said, every team has the same interest, so I don't think the league would intervene to do something that crazy. Real conspiracies involving the league are much more likely to occur in the arena building process.

ImHeisenberg · Post #14 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Tue May 5, 2015 5:36 pm

Snakebites wrote:Insert obligatory Snakebites "lottery conspiracy and superstition are nonsense and nobody should believe them" post here.

I'm tired of making the same arguments over and over again if people aren't interested in them.

If the league was purely about the profits with disregard to any competitive equality, Andrew Wiggins would be in a Lakers jersey right now. You could probably even sell the other owners on rigging the lottery, and boosting their share of profit sharing.

Post #15 » by **theBigLip** » Tue May 5, 2015 6:19 pm

ImHeisenberg wrote:
Snakebites wrote:Insert obligatory Snakebites "lottery conspiracy and superstition are nonsense and nobody should believe them" post here.

I'm tired of making the same arguments over and over again if people aren't interested in them.

If the league was purely about the profits with disregard to any competitive equality, Andrew Wiggins would be in a Lakers jersey right now. You could probably even sell the other owners on rigging the lottery, and boosting their share of profit sharing.

Profit sharing vs value of the franchise? With the value of franchise going into the Billions, I'd think an owner would want Wiggins on their team and f--k the Lakers. Like I mentioned earlier, I think there is always back room dealing going on when there is a lot of money at stake, but the lottery seems a little dicey to rig. The Patrick Ewing lottery might have happened, before there was so much scrutiny, but now they have team reps in the back room watching the whole process, so I don't think it is rigged, at least not anymore.

c-dot · Post #16 » by **c-dot** » Tue May 5, 2015 8:45 pm

Unless we trade the pick, if Cauley-Stein is available I hope we take him. Athletic 7 footers are always worth a lot. I don't wanna be like the Raptors when they picked Ross over Drummond.

ImHeisenberg · Post #17 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Tue May 5, 2015 8:49 pm

theBigLip wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:
Snakebites wrote:Insert obligatory Snakebites "lottery conspiracy and superstition are nonsense and nobody should believe them" post here.

I'm tired of making the same arguments over and over again if people aren't interested in them.

If the league was purely about the profits with disregard to any competitive equality, Andrew Wiggins would be in a Lakers jersey right now. You could probably even sell the other owners on rigging the lottery, and boosting their share of profit sharing.

Profit sharing vs value of the franchise? With the value of franchise going into the Billions, I'd think an owner would want Wiggins on their team and f--k the Lakers. Like I mentioned earlier, I think there is always back room dealing going on when there is a lot of money at stake, but the lottery seems a little dicey to rig. The Patrick Ewing lottery might have happened, before there was so much scrutiny, but now they have team reps in the back room watching the whole process, so I don't think it is rigged, at least not anymore.

I agree. I'm in the camp that does NOT believe the lottery is rigged.

The Penguin · Post #18 » by **The Penguin** » Tue May 5, 2015 9:03 pm

The lottery being rigged or not, it doesn't change the fact there should be major changes so we never see anything that's happened with Cleveland the last 4 years happen again. Realistically you can think of a conspiracy theory for handing picks to any team, I just prefer to think Cleveland and Dan Gilbert rigged the game so I can continue my hatred for them over accepting the fact that Cleveland (of all cities) beat absolutely insane odds to rapidly rebuild a smoldering crater of a franchise, continued to make awful moves and turned back into a title contender because Lebron got homesick while their fans still moan and complain about never getting a single break. Screw them.

Post #19 » by **theBigLip** » Tue May 5, 2015 9:23 pm

The Penguin wrote:The lottery being rigged or not, it doesn't change the fact there should be major changes so we never see anything that's happened with Cleveland the last 4 years happen again. Realistically you can think of a conspiracy theory for handing picks to any team, I just prefer to think Cleveland and Dan Gilbert rigged the game so I can continue my hatred for them over accepting the fact that Cleveland (of all cities) beat absolutely insane odds to rapidly rebuild a smoldering crater of a franchise, continued to make awful moves and turned back into a title contender because Lebron got homesick while their fans still moan and complain about never getting a single break. Screw them.

I can back that! With any luck, the Bulls take them out in this series, and Love doesn't sign with them next year :-)

Kilo · Post #20 » by **Kilo** » Tue May 5, 2015 9:26 pm

Best case scenario from my perspective - We get the 2nd overall pick. Minnesota gets #1 and Indiana gets #3. Two teams leapfrogging into the lottery pushes Lakers to #6 where they lose their pick and Miami back to 11th where they lose their pick. So the order would be -

Minnesota
Detroit
Indiana
New York
Philly
Philly

Now Minnesota takes KAT first overall - they need a big who can spread the floor. We pick next but Philly is desperate for D'Angelo Russell and knows Indiana is looking hard at him at #3 and regardless won't be on the board at #5 so we trade #2 overall for #5 and #6.

Minnesota takes KAT, Philly takes Russell, Indiana takes Okafor, NYK takes Mudiay, Detroit takes Justice Winslow and Kristap Porzingis.