Stanley Johnson Draft Stock ?!?!?!

[GreekAlex]

There are quite a few knowledgeable posters here I respect that watch much more hoops than myself.

That being said my question is: Why has Stanley Johnsons draft stock fallen so much since the middle of the college season?


I recall mock drafts during the middle of the college season having J. Okafor, E. Mudiay and Stanley Johnson top 3.

I understand other players stock has risen (J. Winslow, Karl Anthony Towns, Super Mario & Kristaps Porzingis) but it just seems like now that Stanley Johnson is more likely to fall to #8 people have really downplayed his potential.

Yesterday on 97.1 the ticket Mike Valenti was talking about his as a tweener with no star potential. It sounded like best case scenario he'd be a good rotation player and if he could become a starter that would almost be overachieving.

I seems like the same things he was praised for previously (his size & build) seem to be a concern for the scouts all of a sudden.

Knowing he's the only player in California state history to win state titles all four seasons, I like his winning pedigree. I know it's still a team sport at the end of the day but with him being know to be able to do many things well, it's easy to assume he was able to morph his game as needed to help his teams win.

Is his shot that slow or is it just that one workout drill people are paying too much attention to?

If the slow shot and his size/build are the knocks against him and his game, why was it not a problem before... as much as scouts watch these kids there's not a lot that falls through the cracks.

[princeofpalace]

I don’t recall any of the major drafting sites every having Johnson in the top 3. Here is a summary of why I’m not that high on him.

1) He cannot get to the rim in the halfcourt. Of the SF prospects rated in the first round, Johnson is one of the worst at creating his own shot at the rim in the halfcourt.

2) When Johnson does manage to get to the rim in the halfcourt, he cannot score. He has a 40% FG at the hoop in half court settings which is alarming giving the sheer size advantage he had on mostly all of the opponents he faced at Arizona.

3) Johnson’s jumpshot is simply not good enough to counter his inability to score at the hoop. When guys can’t score at the rim, you ideally want for them to be elite shooters, but that’s not the case for Johnson. I don’t know where his offense is going to come from in the NBA.

4) He was nonexistent in the tourney. In games that mattered most in the season, Johnson disappeared.

5) He isn’t always motivated on defense. Johnson took plays off on defense, which is something a guy with a middling offense can’t do if he expects to be an impact player.

I think Johnson is an NBA player, but I see him as defensive specialist role player. At 8, Id rather grab a guy who has the tools to be a star. I wouldn’t mind him as the pick but he’s not one of my top choices.

[The Penguin]

First off, "draft experts" are an inexact science. There's a reason those guys aren't being paid millions (or even hundreds of thousands) by NBA teams. The media experts make their big boards, then adjust them once the teams start releasing their scouting info.

Regarding Johnson, I don't know if it's so much that his stock plummeted as guys simply passed him. As PoP mentioned, he had a poor tourney, Winslow had a great one, moving him up. The draft experts underestimated how much teams would like WCS, moving him up. Russell played himself up during the season. Kristaps has crushed the predraft portion, moving him up.

[detroitKG]

First off, "draft experts" are an inexact science. There's a reason those guys aren't being paid millions (or even hundreds of thousands) by NBA teams. The media experts make their big boards, then adjust them once the teams start releasing their scouting info.

Regarding Johnson, I don't know if it's so much that his stock plummeted as guys simply passed him. As PoP mentioned, he had a poor tourney, Winslow had a great one, moving him up. The draft experts underestimated how much teams would like WCS, moving him up. Russell played himself up during the season. Kristaps has crushed the predraft portion, moving him up.

Really well said. Still a really good prospect but for one reason or another is overshadowed by some of the other intriguing prospects. Might be a steal when he goes off the board or may be a solid pick. Time will tell. He's definitely high on my board.

[KC3]

Stan was the best player on his team and defenses keyed in on him alot,which hurt hes game a bit,but other than that he can handle the ball,shoot the 3 at 37% and the 2 at 47%,he can get to the rim but didnt finish well (some of that is defenes keying in on him),is a good defender,is only an inch short compared to your typical NBA sf,6"11 wingspan,weighs 242,have decent foot work.

The kid is 19 and will be a beast at the next level if he does hit his potential.He has a pit bull work ethic and mentality,that he got from his mother working with him on his basketball from an early age (which she was a B-Ball player herself,won 4 state titles,only player in cali history to do so.He has the pedigree,will,mentality,gym rat,and most important,is a very good charcter guy.You cant go wrong with him as your pick at 8.

[kurtis48239]

Hes also my guy as well,I just think when its said and done,johnson will be a name peole will be talking about when those (take a look back at the 2015 draft,who was a steal and who was a bomb) threads are writen.He is just a kid still and when he gets with NBA strength and conditioning coaches,watch out,if he lost a good 10 12 pounds and leaned up even more,you could be suprised by how much more athletic he looks.

[GreekAlex]

I don’t recall any of the major drafting sites every having Johnson in the top 3. Here is a summary of why I’m not that high on him.

1) He cannot get to the rim in the halfcourt. Of the SF prospects rated in the first round, Johnson is one of the worst at creating his own shot at the rim in the halfcourt.

2) When Johnson does manage to get to the rim in the halfcourt, he cannot score. He has a 40% FG at the hoop in half court settings which is alarming giving the sheer size advantage he had on mostly all of the opponents he faced at Arizona.

3) Johnson’s jumpshot is simply not good enough to counter his inability to score at the hoop. When guys can’t score at the rim, you ideally want for them to be elite shooters, but that’s not the case for Johnson. I don’t know where his offense is going to come from in the NBA.

4) He was nonexistent in the tourney. In games that mattered most in the season, Johnson disappeared.

5) He isn’t always motivated on defense. Johnson took plays off on defense, which is something a guy with a middling offense can’t do if he expects to be an impact player.

I think Johnson is an NBA player, but I see him as defensive specialist role player. At 8, Id rather grab a guy who has the tools to be a star. I wouldn’t mind him as the pick but he’s not one of my top choices.

Thanks for enlightening me... you make many good points however some of the negatives were the same things that caused Drummond to fall to the Pistons (i.e. not always motivated on defense, disappears during some games despite his physical tools etc.).

I also think it will be easier for him to stay focused in a professional environment and excel when he's not the most highly focused on player by opposing teams.

I guess only time will tell.... That being said I can't wait for draft night!!

[kurtis48239]

I don’t recall any of the major drafting sites every having Johnson in the top 3. Here is a summary of why I’m not that high on him.

1) He cannot get to the rim in the halfcourt. Of the SF prospects rated in the first round, Johnson is one of the worst at creating his own shot at the rim in the halfcourt.

2) When Johnson does manage to get to the rim in the halfcourt, he cannot score. He has a 40% FG at the hoop in half court settings which is alarming giving the sheer size advantage he had on mostly all of the opponents he faced at Arizona.

3) Johnson’s jumpshot is simply not good enough to counter his inability to score at the hoop. When guys can’t score at the rim, you ideally want for them to be elite shooters, but that’s not the case for Johnson. I don’t know where his offense is going to come from in the NBA.

4) He was nonexistent in the tourney. In games that mattered most in the season, Johnson disappeared.

5) He isn’t always motivated on defense. Johnson took plays off on defense, which is something a guy with a middling offense can’t do if he expects to be an impact player.

I think Johnson is an NBA player, but I see him as defensive specialist role player. At 8, Id rather grab a guy who has the tools to be a star. I wouldn’t mind him as the pick but he’s not one of my top choices.

Thanks for enlightening me... you make many good points however some of the negatives were the same things that caused Drummond to fall to the Pistons (i.e. not always motivated on defense, disappears during some games despite his physical tools etc.).

I also think it will be easier for him to stay focused in a professional environment and excel when he's not the most highly focused on player by opposing teams.

I guess only time will tell.... That being said I can't wait for draft night!!

I also think stan is one of the best coaches for getting the most from his players and draft pick we get has a very good chance of hitting their ceiling.

[ImHeisenberg]

Here's some food for thought:


Look at how bad the Pistons shooting was when there was poor floor spacing with Smith, Drummond and Monroe. As a team, we were finishing towards the bottom of the league in shooting percentage at the rim.

Look at that Arizona team. They didn't have any shooters that really forced the defense to be honest. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has the same shooting range as Drummond. I think SJ will finish better in the NBA, where he will have better shooters around him and the additional space a wider court provides as well.

The tournament should be taken into consideration. SJ went from a top 5 pick to his ceiling being picked 8th or later. Winslow effectively took his place as the second best wing player.

I'm higher on Johnson than most. I think a lot of short comings in college were taken out of context, as he was the #1 option on a team lacking a quality second offensive option- and he still shot respectable percentages even though it was every opponent's prerogative to try and shut him down.

Physically, people think he won't be able to leverage his size in the NBA. I don't understand that opinion. As a 19 year old, he's damn big as a small forward already. There are only a handful of guys that will be able to physically match him.

[Spider156]

Drummond was supposed to be a Top 2 candidate and throughout the season Davis became clear #1 and Drummond's stock fell. I didn't think it could fall to us but that's what happened. So if Stanley was truly that high on the board then he could potentially be an All-Star like how Curry fell and several others. Anything can happen to a player, teams draft based on potential. Potential can change based on the player's team as well as development.

[theBigLip]

Stanley Johnson fans probably don't want to look at the SI Mock:http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mock-draft-karl-towns-jahlil-okafor-kristaps-porzingis-rj-hunter-emmanuel-mudiay

[Hotmayo]

im very high on stanley johnson. very high. his game translates very well to the NBA. I would seriously be very happy we landed him.

i think it would be a steal to get him. this draft has 3 players who are #1 picks in others drafts, which means it is a very deep draft with the top 10 players all being pretty talented.

If we walk out of this draft with stanley, or kaminsky, or booker, or wcs, then i think we had a very solid draft.

based on needs i would rank:

stanley, booker, kaminsky, wcs

i think these 4 guys i mentioned could be huge steals where selected. i think mudiay is a flop. and im not sold on russell or okafor,

hezonja is legit. and ive never seen porzingis in a game but if you average 10/5 in euro pro basketball then you must have some serious potential.

[Montanabadboy]

If we don't take him, I don't really care where he goes. But as of right now, he is one of my 3 favorite players in the draft.

[GreekAlex]

Here's some food for thought:


Look at how bad the Pistons shooting was when there was poor floor spacing with Smith, Drummond and Monroe. As a team, we were finishing towards the bottom of the league in shooting percentage at the rim.

Look at that Arizona team. They didn't have any shooters that really forced the defense to be honest. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has the same shooting range as Drummond. I think SJ will finish better in the NBA, where he will have better shooters around him and the additional space a wider court provides as well.

The tournament should be taken into consideration. SJ went from a top 5 pick to his ceiling being picked 8th or later. Winslow effectively took his place as the second best wing player.

I'm higher on Johnson than most. I think a lot of short comings in college were taken out of context, as he was the #1 option on a team lacking a quality second offensive option- and he still shot respectable percentages even though it was every opponent's prerogative to try and shut him down.

Physically, people think he won't be able to leverage his size in the NBA. I don't understand that opinion. As a 19 year old, he's damn big as a small forward already. There are only a handful of guys that will be able to physically match him.

I appreciate your take on this... You've reaffirmed some of my feelings. I was starting to believe the hype.

[bballnmike]

Stanley Johnson fans probably don't want to look at the SI Mock:http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mock-draft-karl-towns-jahlil-okafor-kristaps-porzingis-rj-hunter-emmanuel-mudiay

That's crazy talk

[Liqourish]

I like SJ and think he very well could be in play at #8. In fact, I think him and a few others more than guys people think are a census top 7 pick.

[bkseven]

Drummond was supposed to be a Top 2 candidate and throughout the season Davis became clear #1 and Drummond's stock fell. I didn't think it could fall to us but that's what happened. So if Stanley was truly that high on the board then he could potentially be an All-Star like how Curry fell and several others. Anything can happen to a player, teams draft based on potential. Potential can change based on the player's team as well as development.

[Blkbrd671]

the last report i read


"stanley johnson's draft stock is falling becauses coaches and scouts see that he good at everything but not great at any one thing.".........................so he's a complete(which he's not) but he's not great..............@19.........smh

[bballnmike]

We're forgetting the biggest strength, his name is Stan. Must acquire all Stans

[DETermination]

We're forgetting the biggest strength, his name is Stan. Must acquire all Stans

Stanley = Stan Lee = super hero = stan van gundy = back in the playoffs.