Expansion Draft Scenario -- Who would you protect?

[Texas Chuck]

Trades and Transactions board is going to be doing an expansion draft project where we imagine we are running a new expansion team starting play in 2015/16 and having to create our initial roster pulled from current NBA teams.

So in advance of that I'm trying to get the best possible idea of what 8 players each franchise would most likely choose to protect. And while last year we depended on our Trade board posters to provide us that list, this year we thought it would be more accurate if we consulted with the team boards.

So I would love to get your opinions itt on which 8 players you think the Pistons would protect in an expansion draft. I am attaching a link to last year's project so you can see some of the criteria we used when assembling the expansion team. Other than the cap figures the rules would be roughly the same this year.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1348605

We'd also love to have any and all of you come participate in this project.

[ImHeisenberg]

Protected:
1- Drummond
2- Jackson
3- KCP
4- Morris
5- Stan Johnson
6- Ilyasova
7- Jennings
8- Baynes or Meeks

The first seven were easy, who they'd protect with the final slot is debatable.

[GreekAlex]

Protected: Drummond, Jackson, KCP, Stanley Johnson, Ilyasova, Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes, Brandon Jennings

Unprotected: Jodie Meeks, Reggie Bullock, Darrun Hilliard II, Anthony Tolliver, Cartier Martin, Steve Blake, Spencer Dinwiddie, Danny Granger, Joel Anthony

[Scout Taron]

1. Andre Drummond
2. Reggie Jackson
3. Stanley Johnson
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
5. Ersan Ilyasova
6. Brandon Jennings
7. Marcus Morris
8. Aaron Baynes

I could see them protecting Dinwiddie instead of Baynes, but this looks the most likely to me.

[DBC10]

Dre, RJ, KCP, and Stanley are no brainers. A mix of valuable rookie contracts to high potential players.

Ersan, Morris, Jennings, and Baynes are considerably less valuable than the above, but far higher than any other players we have. So I'd start there.

[Kilo]

I think Jennings might be left off given his injury concerns.

Drummond
Jackson
Johnson
KCP
Ilyasova
Morris
Baynes
Meeks

Available
Jennings
Dinwiddie
Anthony
Bullock
Hilliard
Blake
Granger
Thomas
Martin

Assuming we could only lose one player I'd be okay losing any player off the available list. I assume only Jennings or maybe Dinwiddie would be at risk. I keep Meeks because he's on a cheap contract for two more years - this one and the next and expect a big bounce back. I think he'd surely be the one taken if he was unprotected.

[pistonsfan00]

1. Dre
2. Stanley
3. Reggie
4. KCP
5. Morris
6. Ersan
7. Baynes
8. Meeks


Trade Jennings for a draft pick before this expansion draft!!

[joseph mamah]

Dre
Stanley
KCP
RJ
Bullock
Illy
Baynes
Spencer

[Montanabadboy]

I would leave Jennings unprotected due to the fact that he is A) expiring contract and B)Coming off major injury. So I would take a chance on the expansion team not wanting him.
So now the question is, Dinwiddie or Meeks? It really matters little to me, but I'd protect Meeks, he's probably more valuable as an asset. So basically what pistonfan00 said, minus the trade.

[sc8581]

Drummond
Reggie
Stanley
KCP
Ilyasova
Baynes
Morris
Meeks

Some of you are sleeping on Meeks and/or overvaluing Jennings.

[DocRI]

I think Jennings might be left off given his injury concerns.

Drummond
Jackson
Johnson
KCP
Ilyasova
Morris
Baynes
Meeks

Available
Jennings
Dinwiddie
Anthony
Bullock
Hilliard
Blake
Granger
Thomas
Martin

Assuming we could only lose one player I'd be okay losing any player off the available list. I assume only Jennings or maybe Dinwiddie would be at risk. I keep Meeks because he's on a cheap contract for two more years - this one and the next and expect a big bounce back. I think he'd surely be the one taken if he was unprotected.

^ Ibid Kilo's lists.

We can only lose one player, so Kilo's "safe list" assures we don't leave ourselves stripped at any one position. We're keeping two C's (Drummond & Baynes), two SG's (KCP & Meeks) three F's who can mix and match to cover both SF & PF slots (Morris, Illy and Johnson) and then one PG (Jackson). But with both Jennings and Dinwiddie available, we're guaranteed to only lose one, which means whomever stays is our primary backup PG. And no one else on our roster is worth sweating.

My early bet — taking a flyer on Dinwiddie is far more attractive for an expansion team than taking one on an expiring Jennings coming off his injury.

And Chuck — great idea for a game and great idea to come to all the team boards to compile the lists!

[tmorgan]

In order of value to me:

Drummond
Johnson
Jackson
KCP
Ilyasova
Baynes
Meeks
Dinwiddie

Leaving Jennings and Morris, among others, available. Dinwiddie looked bad this summer, but patience is important. The rest are on multi-year deals except Dre, who should re-sign. The first five are our likely starters later this year and maybe next year, and Baynes and Meeks are key bench guys.

I like BJ, but he's expiring and is extremely unlikely to be playing here after this season anyway. Morris is a knucklehead, we got him for nothing, and it's yet to be seen whether he fits in here. If someone really wants him, I can live with that.

[Texas Chuck]

Trade Jennings for a draft pick before this expansion draft!!

yeah one of the interesting scenarios in the expansion draft portion of this are trades. Where a team gives up an asset in exchange for not getting one of their unprotected players drafted or gives up an asset in order to get a contract they want to dump drafted.

Probably can't get good value for Jennings until he gets back on the court, so you could offer the expansion team a future 2nd to not draft him allowing you to protect 8 other guys. But that's for the 2nd part of this exercise.

[The Penguin]

1. Drummond
2. Johnson
3. Reggie
4. KCP
5. Morris
6. Ersan
7. Dinwiddie
8. Hilliard

Unprotected - Baynes, Jennings, Meeks, Bullock, Joel Anthony, Granger, Cartier Martin, Steve Blake

Rolling the dice here a bit. If I were running the expansion team, I would load up on young cheap guys and spend up to the floor on free agents, so by that logic I would expect the expansion team to target guys like Dinwiddie / Bullock / Hilliard. I believe after one of your guys is picked you can pull back more if not all of them. I don't know how much value Jennings would hold as no one knows when he'll come back and he would likely walk from the expansion situation the next summer. Baynes and Meeks are both 28 and making $6+ mil multiple years to be bench rotation players, again not guys I think an expansion team would target. I would expect under this scenario we'd lose Bullock, then can pull back Jennings/Meeks/Baynes, my decision was basically Bullock or Hilliard, given we just drafted Hilliard and signed him to a 3 year guaranteed deal I chose to protect him.

[Blkbrd671]

Awesome Thread

Dre
RJ
KCP
SJ
Morris
Ersan
Dinwiddie
Hillard

[313 Professor]

Protected
1. Andre Drummond
2. Stanley Johnson
3. Spencer Dinwiddie
4. Darrun Hilliard II
5. Kentavious Caldwell Pope
6. Reggie Jackson
7. Marcus Morris
8. Aron Baynes

Ilyasova was tough but we have Stanley & Morris who are more versatile I think. Baynes' 4-5 versatility gave him an edge. Jennings as a limited defensive 1 coming off an achilles injury WITH Dinwiddie & RJ HAS to go. The 1-2 versatility of Dinwiddie/Jackson + the surplus of young guards (KCP, Hilliard) got him the boot. In real life I hope he heals though, but at this point you never know.

[bkseven]

Protected:
1- Drummond
2- Jackson
3- KCP
4- Morris
5- Stan Johnson
6- Ilyasova
7- Jennings
8- Baynes or Meeks

The first seven were easy, who they'd protect with the final slot is debatable.

Stanley behind Morris. Really.

[bkseven]

Protected
1. Andre Drummond
2. Stanley Johnson
3. Spencer Dinwiddie
4. Darrun Hilliard II
5. Kentavious Caldwell Pope
6. Reggie Jackson
7. Marcus Morris
8. Aron Baynes

Ilyasova was tough but we have Stanley & Morris who are more versatile I think. Baynes' 4-5 versatility gave him an edge. Jennings as a limited defensive 1 coming off an achilles injury WITH Dinwiddie & RJ HAS to go. The 1-2 versatility of Dinwiddie/Jackson + the surplus of young guards (KCP, Hilliard) got him the boot. In real life I hope he heals though, but at this point you never know.

Dinwidde 3rd.. really.

[bkseven]

1. Drummond
2. Stanley
3. Reggie (if he plays up to his contract)
4. KCP
5. doesn't matter...

[Snakebites]

Protected:

Drummond, Jackson, KCP, Johnson, Ilyasova, Morris, Hilliard, Jennings

Meeks and Baynes are left unprotected because no team in an expansion situation will want two backup level guys being paid above market value who aren't young and have no upside. No sense in protecting someone that an expansion team won't take. Wastes a spot.

I think SVG at this point would probably love if someone took Meeks. Jennings is valuable enough as an expiring deal even if you think he's not ready to come back to be kept (and might be snapped up by an ambitious expansion team looking to leverage a midseason trade). Ily is too, and Morris is still relatively young and not very overpaid, so they need to be protected.