Detroit Pistons: 2015-16 player profiles (ESPN)
Posted: Tue Oct 6, 2015 5:14 pm
http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2015/insider/story/_/id/13431689/nba-detroit-pistons-player-profiles
Reggie Jackson
+ Pistons' franchise point guard after signing five-year deal in summer
+ Excellent off dribble and when pulling up, but struggles with deep stroke
+ Has improved playmaking to above-average levels
Analysis
Pistons honcho Stan Van Gundy called the fully guaranteed, option-free, five-year, $80 million contract he signed Reggie Jackson to this summer a "hell of a deal." He ain't lying. Detroit has gone all-in on the notion that the 25-year-old, former late first-round pick is its franchise point guard. While it's true that Jackson has improved steadily in his pro career, it's fair to wonder how much growth Jackson, who has never started for a full season, has left at his age. It's the defining decision for Van Gundy as an executive so far -- for better or worse.
Jackson's offensive real plus-minus (RPM) has jumped by 3.7 points over the past couple of seasons, reaching the 90th percentile in 2014-15. His usage rate has climbed by over 6 percent during that time as he has made the difficult transition from a supporting player to a featured one. While Jackson has proven his ability to get his own shot, he's still a work in progress as a scorer. While his trusty floater is fine, he doesn't finish well when he gets to the hoop. Jackson is also a spotty face-up shooter, and as his 3-point stroke has remained unreliable -- he hit less than 30 percent from deep last season -- he has become more prone to forcing the action against defenses laying off of him. Jackson reportedly made this the focus of his summer workouts. If he can make that upgrade, it would take his game to another level.
Where Jackson has already reached a higher level is as a playmaker. He assisted on a career-best 9 percent of possessions when on the floor last season, climbing to the 94th percentile across the league, and he's now in the league's top 10 percent in creating scoring plays on a per-pass basis. His turnover rate is a little high, but maybe that will improve as he takes full control of a team for the first time and develops chemistry with his Detroit teammates. Jackson also needs to become more of a factor on defense. He's not awful but ranks average or just below by pretty much every measure.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
+ Improving 3-point shooter
+ Good scorer in transition
+ Positive team impact on both ends of the floor
Analysis
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope may be the pivotal player for the Pistons. He started every game last season and logged 1,000 more minutes than he did in his rookie season, showing that he has earned Van Gundy's trust. But for the Pistons offense to reach a next level, the No. 8 overall pick in 2013 needs to become a premier off-the-ball threat.
With a WARP that was still below replacement level, there is plenty of room for growth. Caldwell-Pope's usage rate improved by 5.5 percent over his rookie season but is still below average for a guard. That might not be so bad, but with a true shooting percentage of just .501 Caldwell-Pope provides neither efficiency nor volume on offense. He shot less than league average from deep and, per Synergy, rated in just the 48th percentile on catch-and-shoot opportunities. While Caldwell-Pope doesn't turn the ball over much, he's not a creator. He's pretty good off the dribble if he can get to the hoop, though his overall finishing rate at the rim is below average. He shies away from contact, rating in the 29th percentile league-wide in terms of drawing fouls.
That said, Caldwell-Pope came into the league with perceived potential to become an elite long-range shooter and perhaps this is the season, in a more consistent and fluid Detroit offense, he makes the jump. As it is, he's still not the offensive player that his backup, Jodie Meeks, has proven to be.
However, Caldwell-Pope is better on the defensive end. His multi-season defensive RPM was plus-0.7 last season and his steal rate is well above average. KCP's opponents have shot the ball about 2.8 percent better against him than normal the past two seasons, per SportVu, and his per-play indicators from Synergy against isolations, the pick-and-roll and overall are all below average as well.
Nevertheless, Caldwell-Pope's was plus-2.04 in overall RPM at the end of last season. While his individual metrics could be better, his impact on the team seems unquestionably positive, a conclusion underscored by his minutes total. If Caldwell-Pope improves his percentages just a little, he'll be a legitimate NBA starter.
Marcus Morris
+ Combo forward acquired from Phoenix. May start at 3 for Detroit
+ Increasingly a standstill shooter who hits corner 3s and protects the ball
+ Average defender who struggles against interior scorers
Analysis
While Markieff Morris has been raising a stink about the Suns' trade of his brother, Marcus Morris at least claimed to be content with his new club. That's good news, because Detroit has a hole at the 3.
Morris was never really able to lock down a starting role in Phoenix, though he started 35 games last season and played just more than 2,000 minutes at an RPM a little over league average. He has been around average on offense in most facets in recent seasons, with a rate of efficiency that is closely tied to his 3-point shot. That mark was down to 35.8 percent last season, but even that was a little over average (and he has done better). His catch-and-shoot results have rated as high at the 89th percentile, according to Synergy, and if he shoots like that for the Pistons, he'll likely hold off rookie Stanley Johnson for at least this season.
Morris is an above-average rebounder on both ends and last season improved his assist rate to -- you guessed it -- average, while slashing his turnover rate to elite levels. This all sounds pretty good, but Morris gives away a lot of his value on the defensive end: His multi-season RPM fell to the 25th percentile (minus-1.77) in 2014-15. Though he has the same wingspan and a better vertical leap than his brother, Morris doesn't block shots nearly as well and he doesn't defend the post or play the pick-and-roll well enough to play much 4 in small-ball lineups.
While the overall package makes Morris a borderline candidate as a starter, his contract for roughly $5 million annually over the next four years is an easy fit for Detroit, even if he's simply a rotation player. There is always concern that both Morris twins will falter from their separation, but if Marcus simply replicates what he did for Phoenix, the Pistons will have a useful player at an excellent value.
Ersan Ilyasova
+ Stretch 4 with sometimes inconsistent 3-point stroke
+ Plus rebounder who will be asked to do less on offensive glass in Detroit
+ Below average overall on defense but draws a high rate of offensive fouls
Analysis
The Pistons got an early start on transaction season by dealing veterans Caron Butler and Shawne Williams to the Bucks for Ilyasova before the draft. Right away, Van Gundy anointed Ilyasova his starting power forward, one who can stretch the floor on offense while providing legit big-man traits in other facets of the game.
Health has been one of Ilyasova's bugaboos in recent seasons, undermining his performance and availability in equal measure. He has missed 51 games over the past two seasons, and even when he was available in 2013-14, he was often ineffective thanks to recurrent ankle trouble. He played only 22.7 minutes per game for a deep Milwaukee squad last season, so it's fair to wonder if Detroit can really count on the seven-year veteran to hold down a 28-30 minute starting role for a full season.
If Ilyasova can stay on the floor, he'll give the Pistons a bona-fide stretch big. He's got a nice, high release and easy range from deep, though his stroke is a fair bit inconsistent. You can blame the ankle trouble for his dip to 28 percent 3-point shooting two seasons ago, but what is the explanation for his drop to 64.5 percent foul shooting in 2014-15? Never an elite athlete, Ilyasova hasn't been a great finisher around the rim, either. He's well above-average as an offensive rebounder, but in Detroit, the offensive glass is Andre Drummond's domain, so expect Ilyasova's gradually declining rebound percentages to fall further.
Ilyasova's offensive RPM tends to correlate strongly with his 3-point success, which has been over league average in three of the past four season, the exception being the aforementioned injury season. Expect a lower usage rate for Ilyasova in Detroit and an enhanced per-touch efficiency, a rate that was already in the 96th percentile last season.
On defense, Ilyasova is a bit short-armed for his size and spot-up shooters usually have success against him. He's above average against the pick-and-roll unless he gets switched onto a center; then he's helpless. Ilyasova's 2014-15 defensive RPM ranked in just the 9th percentile, though to be fair, he was often sharing minutes with the defensively elite John Henson. His standout trait on defense is drawing offensive fouls, an area in which few are better.
Andre Drummond
+ Immensely talented big man still trying to translate individual production into team impact
+ Elite rebounder on both ends of the floor
+ Increased touches last season by playing more in the post
Analysis
Any critique of Andre Drummond has to begin at his age: He turned 22 this past offseason. In the history of the NBA, only Dwight Howard has grabbed more rebounds by age 22 than Drummond. The name Howard comes up frequently when making comparisons to describe the physically dominant, rim-rattling, wayward-foul-shooting Drummond. And those comparisons have only grown more prevalent since Van Gundy took over the Pistons. Heck, even SCHOENE agrees -- Howard is among the top statistical comps for the still-developing Pistons center. If Drummond reaches the same heights as Howard, the Pistons will have a championship-level franchise player on their hands.
Drummond's role on offense expanded last season. Van Gundy increased Drummond's volume of post-ups, from 11 percent of his plays the season before to 28, according to Synergy. The results were mixed, but perhaps they were necessary growing pains to facilitate Drummond's growth from a run-to-the-rim dunker to a true franchise offensive center. His looks in the restricted area doubled thanks to an increased interest in a jump hook, though he hit just 37.7 percent from there. His rate at the rim was also down, dropping from 67-plus percent his first two seasons to 58.2 percent. Combine all that with a still-awful free throw percentage and a climb in usage rate and Drummond dropped 95 points in true shooting percentage, to .504. While Drummond slashed his rate of turnovers, he still isn't much of a passer. All told, Drummond posted a negative single-season offensive RPM for the first time in his career.
His defensive rating has annually been among the league's elite. That's mostly a result of top-shelf block rates and the fact that he may be the game's best rebounder on both ends of the floor. However, his defensive RPM hasn't been elite, either. While he improved his rim protection last season, opposing shooters hit a shade over 48 percent against him for the second season in a row, leaving him in the 19th percentile. His post defense metrics at Synergy saw a similar story.
As young and as good as Drummond is, he can do a lot more in terms of using his immense production and talent to generate a better bottom line for his team. He delighted social media aficionados this summer with pics and clips of his workouts, including footage of him knocking down catch-and-shoot jumpers from midrange, where he hit 17 percent a season ago. Meanwhile, the Pistons hired shooting guru Dave Hopla as an assistant coach, and his top priority will be to nudge Drummond's free throw success over 50 percent.
Reggie Jackson
+ Pistons' franchise point guard after signing five-year deal in summer
+ Excellent off dribble and when pulling up, but struggles with deep stroke
+ Has improved playmaking to above-average levels
Analysis
Pistons honcho Stan Van Gundy called the fully guaranteed, option-free, five-year, $80 million contract he signed Reggie Jackson to this summer a "hell of a deal." He ain't lying. Detroit has gone all-in on the notion that the 25-year-old, former late first-round pick is its franchise point guard. While it's true that Jackson has improved steadily in his pro career, it's fair to wonder how much growth Jackson, who has never started for a full season, has left at his age. It's the defining decision for Van Gundy as an executive so far -- for better or worse.
Jackson's offensive real plus-minus (RPM) has jumped by 3.7 points over the past couple of seasons, reaching the 90th percentile in 2014-15. His usage rate has climbed by over 6 percent during that time as he has made the difficult transition from a supporting player to a featured one. While Jackson has proven his ability to get his own shot, he's still a work in progress as a scorer. While his trusty floater is fine, he doesn't finish well when he gets to the hoop. Jackson is also a spotty face-up shooter, and as his 3-point stroke has remained unreliable -- he hit less than 30 percent from deep last season -- he has become more prone to forcing the action against defenses laying off of him. Jackson reportedly made this the focus of his summer workouts. If he can make that upgrade, it would take his game to another level.
Where Jackson has already reached a higher level is as a playmaker. He assisted on a career-best 9 percent of possessions when on the floor last season, climbing to the 94th percentile across the league, and he's now in the league's top 10 percent in creating scoring plays on a per-pass basis. His turnover rate is a little high, but maybe that will improve as he takes full control of a team for the first time and develops chemistry with his Detroit teammates. Jackson also needs to become more of a factor on defense. He's not awful but ranks average or just below by pretty much every measure.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
+ Improving 3-point shooter
+ Good scorer in transition
+ Positive team impact on both ends of the floor
Analysis
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope may be the pivotal player for the Pistons. He started every game last season and logged 1,000 more minutes than he did in his rookie season, showing that he has earned Van Gundy's trust. But for the Pistons offense to reach a next level, the No. 8 overall pick in 2013 needs to become a premier off-the-ball threat.
With a WARP that was still below replacement level, there is plenty of room for growth. Caldwell-Pope's usage rate improved by 5.5 percent over his rookie season but is still below average for a guard. That might not be so bad, but with a true shooting percentage of just .501 Caldwell-Pope provides neither efficiency nor volume on offense. He shot less than league average from deep and, per Synergy, rated in just the 48th percentile on catch-and-shoot opportunities. While Caldwell-Pope doesn't turn the ball over much, he's not a creator. He's pretty good off the dribble if he can get to the hoop, though his overall finishing rate at the rim is below average. He shies away from contact, rating in the 29th percentile league-wide in terms of drawing fouls.
That said, Caldwell-Pope came into the league with perceived potential to become an elite long-range shooter and perhaps this is the season, in a more consistent and fluid Detroit offense, he makes the jump. As it is, he's still not the offensive player that his backup, Jodie Meeks, has proven to be.
However, Caldwell-Pope is better on the defensive end. His multi-season defensive RPM was plus-0.7 last season and his steal rate is well above average. KCP's opponents have shot the ball about 2.8 percent better against him than normal the past two seasons, per SportVu, and his per-play indicators from Synergy against isolations, the pick-and-roll and overall are all below average as well.
Nevertheless, Caldwell-Pope's was plus-2.04 in overall RPM at the end of last season. While his individual metrics could be better, his impact on the team seems unquestionably positive, a conclusion underscored by his minutes total. If Caldwell-Pope improves his percentages just a little, he'll be a legitimate NBA starter.
Marcus Morris
+ Combo forward acquired from Phoenix. May start at 3 for Detroit
+ Increasingly a standstill shooter who hits corner 3s and protects the ball
+ Average defender who struggles against interior scorers
Analysis
While Markieff Morris has been raising a stink about the Suns' trade of his brother, Marcus Morris at least claimed to be content with his new club. That's good news, because Detroit has a hole at the 3.
Morris was never really able to lock down a starting role in Phoenix, though he started 35 games last season and played just more than 2,000 minutes at an RPM a little over league average. He has been around average on offense in most facets in recent seasons, with a rate of efficiency that is closely tied to his 3-point shot. That mark was down to 35.8 percent last season, but even that was a little over average (and he has done better). His catch-and-shoot results have rated as high at the 89th percentile, according to Synergy, and if he shoots like that for the Pistons, he'll likely hold off rookie Stanley Johnson for at least this season.
Morris is an above-average rebounder on both ends and last season improved his assist rate to -- you guessed it -- average, while slashing his turnover rate to elite levels. This all sounds pretty good, but Morris gives away a lot of his value on the defensive end: His multi-season RPM fell to the 25th percentile (minus-1.77) in 2014-15. Though he has the same wingspan and a better vertical leap than his brother, Morris doesn't block shots nearly as well and he doesn't defend the post or play the pick-and-roll well enough to play much 4 in small-ball lineups.
While the overall package makes Morris a borderline candidate as a starter, his contract for roughly $5 million annually over the next four years is an easy fit for Detroit, even if he's simply a rotation player. There is always concern that both Morris twins will falter from their separation, but if Marcus simply replicates what he did for Phoenix, the Pistons will have a useful player at an excellent value.
Ersan Ilyasova
+ Stretch 4 with sometimes inconsistent 3-point stroke
+ Plus rebounder who will be asked to do less on offensive glass in Detroit
+ Below average overall on defense but draws a high rate of offensive fouls
Analysis
The Pistons got an early start on transaction season by dealing veterans Caron Butler and Shawne Williams to the Bucks for Ilyasova before the draft. Right away, Van Gundy anointed Ilyasova his starting power forward, one who can stretch the floor on offense while providing legit big-man traits in other facets of the game.
Health has been one of Ilyasova's bugaboos in recent seasons, undermining his performance and availability in equal measure. He has missed 51 games over the past two seasons, and even when he was available in 2013-14, he was often ineffective thanks to recurrent ankle trouble. He played only 22.7 minutes per game for a deep Milwaukee squad last season, so it's fair to wonder if Detroit can really count on the seven-year veteran to hold down a 28-30 minute starting role for a full season.
If Ilyasova can stay on the floor, he'll give the Pistons a bona-fide stretch big. He's got a nice, high release and easy range from deep, though his stroke is a fair bit inconsistent. You can blame the ankle trouble for his dip to 28 percent 3-point shooting two seasons ago, but what is the explanation for his drop to 64.5 percent foul shooting in 2014-15? Never an elite athlete, Ilyasova hasn't been a great finisher around the rim, either. He's well above-average as an offensive rebounder, but in Detroit, the offensive glass is Andre Drummond's domain, so expect Ilyasova's gradually declining rebound percentages to fall further.
Ilyasova's offensive RPM tends to correlate strongly with his 3-point success, which has been over league average in three of the past four season, the exception being the aforementioned injury season. Expect a lower usage rate for Ilyasova in Detroit and an enhanced per-touch efficiency, a rate that was already in the 96th percentile last season.
On defense, Ilyasova is a bit short-armed for his size and spot-up shooters usually have success against him. He's above average against the pick-and-roll unless he gets switched onto a center; then he's helpless. Ilyasova's 2014-15 defensive RPM ranked in just the 9th percentile, though to be fair, he was often sharing minutes with the defensively elite John Henson. His standout trait on defense is drawing offensive fouls, an area in which few are better.
Andre Drummond
+ Immensely talented big man still trying to translate individual production into team impact
+ Elite rebounder on both ends of the floor
+ Increased touches last season by playing more in the post
Analysis
Any critique of Andre Drummond has to begin at his age: He turned 22 this past offseason. In the history of the NBA, only Dwight Howard has grabbed more rebounds by age 22 than Drummond. The name Howard comes up frequently when making comparisons to describe the physically dominant, rim-rattling, wayward-foul-shooting Drummond. And those comparisons have only grown more prevalent since Van Gundy took over the Pistons. Heck, even SCHOENE agrees -- Howard is among the top statistical comps for the still-developing Pistons center. If Drummond reaches the same heights as Howard, the Pistons will have a championship-level franchise player on their hands.
Drummond's role on offense expanded last season. Van Gundy increased Drummond's volume of post-ups, from 11 percent of his plays the season before to 28, according to Synergy. The results were mixed, but perhaps they were necessary growing pains to facilitate Drummond's growth from a run-to-the-rim dunker to a true franchise offensive center. His looks in the restricted area doubled thanks to an increased interest in a jump hook, though he hit just 37.7 percent from there. His rate at the rim was also down, dropping from 67-plus percent his first two seasons to 58.2 percent. Combine all that with a still-awful free throw percentage and a climb in usage rate and Drummond dropped 95 points in true shooting percentage, to .504. While Drummond slashed his rate of turnovers, he still isn't much of a passer. All told, Drummond posted a negative single-season offensive RPM for the first time in his career.
His defensive rating has annually been among the league's elite. That's mostly a result of top-shelf block rates and the fact that he may be the game's best rebounder on both ends of the floor. However, his defensive RPM hasn't been elite, either. While he improved his rim protection last season, opposing shooters hit a shade over 48 percent against him for the second season in a row, leaving him in the 19th percentile. His post defense metrics at Synergy saw a similar story.
As young and as good as Drummond is, he can do a lot more in terms of using his immense production and talent to generate a better bottom line for his team. He delighted social media aficionados this summer with pics and clips of his workouts, including footage of him knocking down catch-and-shoot jumpers from midrange, where he hit 17 percent a season ago. Meanwhile, the Pistons hired shooting guru Dave Hopla as an assistant coach, and his top priority will be to nudge Drummond's free throw success over 50 percent.