fivethirtyeight: Pistons 59% chance to make playoffs

ElectricMayhem · Post #1 » by **ElectricMayhem** » Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:37 pm

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

I'd say that's about right. I'm not sure if their system takes into account the Jennings injury, but his return coupled with the fact that we've managed to hover around the 8th seed thus far bodes well. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat apparently haven't been winning very impressively; they've only got a 39% chance of making the playoffs according to the model.

ImHeisenberg · Post #2 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:06 pm

I think everyone is overplaying Jennings' impact. The guy hasn't played in nearly a year, coming off an injury that affects speed and explosiveness- exactly what Jennings relies on.

The 9% is almost a misnomer. They're basically saying it's a 50/50 toss up, which I'd say is accurate. The east is surprisingly competitive through the first quarter of the year.

Spider156 · Post #3 » by **Spider156** » Sun Dec 13, 2015 6:10 pm

Sooner or later the teams will start to separate through injuries, back to back games, and road games. If not then it's gonna be really close but I also think we can make it at the end because our boys are fighters. Whenever they try it seems like they usually win or are close in the game.

Jennings won't be 100%. But two facts: his competition will be the second unit. Anyone is better than Steve Blake running the point. Sometimes he's good but sometimes he's way off. Our bench is inconsistent and I think Jennings will help bring some consistency to it.

zeebneeb · Post #4 » by **zeebneeb** » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:29 pm

ImHeisenberg wrote:I think everyone is overplaying Jennings' impact. The guy hasn't played in nearly a year, coming off an injury that affects speed and explosiveness- exactly what Jennings relies on.

The 9% is almost a misnomer. They're basically saying it's a 50/50 toss up, which I'd say is accurate. The east is surprisingly competitive through the first quarter of the year.

I disagree. His impact is going to be massive. Even if he comes back at only 60% of what he was his impact will make us the bench better.

Jennings return is going to be the biggest thing to happen to this team since trading for jackson. Meeks will be back shortly thereafter as well.

The Pistons are about to grab the league by the balls and I cannot wait.

DocRI · Post #5 » by **DocRI** » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:47 pm

Spider156 wrote:Sooner or later the teams will start to separate through injuries, back to back games, and road games.

^ CANNOT emphasize this point enough! Moreover, please add trade deadline moves to this list, as the teams who choose to be "buyers" will try to separate themselves from the pack.

Right now there are TEN Eastern teams within 3.5 games of each other. The law of big numbers says that simply can't last; some teams will improve, while others will inevitably fall away. That doesn't mean that all of them won't compete for playoff spots, although some may indeed fall all the way out of contention (let's face it, we're counting lotto balls if Dre blows out his knee). But there's zero chance we'll see a ten team scrum with all of them within spitting distance of home court advantage come April. A few teams will separate at the top, a few will secure middle seeds, and we'll probably see the largest glut of teams competing for the last few playoff slots.

Todd3 · Post #6 » by **Todd3** » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:57 pm

We have the 12th best record in the league. Could be 11th by tonight if MEM beats MIA.

I don't understand the few who claim we have no chance at the playoffs as if we are a 25th place team, when we are actually a top 10-ish record team.

Also we moved back into the 8th spot in the East and could be 7th after the MIA game.

DBC10 · Post #7 » by **DBC10** » Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:15 pm

It really does hurt a bit that the East got that much better (in comparison to the years past) while at the same time the West imploded due to being so top heavy.

Post #8 » by **Snakebites** » Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:53 am

ImHeisenberg wrote:I think everyone is overplaying Jennings' impact. The guy hasn't played in nearly a year, coming off an injury that affects speed and explosiveness- exactly what Jennings relies on.

This.

ElectricMayhem · Post #9 » by **ElectricMayhem** » Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:06 am

I don't expect him to be our savior or anything, but I do expect him to provide more than Blake or Dinwiddie, which is something we absolutely need.

ImHeisenberg · Post #10 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:29 am

Snakebites wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:I think everyone is overplaying Jennings' impact. The guy hasn't played in nearly a year, coming off an injury that affects speed and explosiveness- exactly what Jennings relies on.

This.

Yeah, nobody wanted to read this.

Post #11 » by **Snakebites** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:43 am

ImHeisenberg wrote:
Snakebites wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:I think everyone is overplaying Jennings' impact. The guy hasn't played in nearly a year, coming off an injury that affects speed and explosiveness- exactly what Jennings relies on.

This.

Yeah, nobody wanted to read this.

He's really the only possible light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the horrific nature of our bench, a bench bad enough that it keeps us from being anything more than an average to slightly above average team despite a surprisingly competitive starting lineup.

Its natural to put a lot of stock in him in terms of a fan's mindset. Might not work out that way though. The fact that we really really need his help doesn't make it more likely that he'll be in a position to provide such help.

MrBigShot · Post #12 » by **MrBigShot** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:13 am

Nearly all of the shot creation falls on Reggie's shoulders. Anything Jennings can give us will be huge.

Maker_84 · Post #13 » by **Maker_84** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:24 am

where are people getting Meeks will be back shortly after Jennings?? Meeks isn't gonna be back until around March and getting both of them back still isn't gonna fix the lack of any size off the bench

Redeemed · Post #14 » by **Redeemed** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:22 pm

Jennings has an uphill battle ahead of him for sure. There will be the question of his speed and explosiveness. SVG has said he's waiting to see if Jennings has that before he plays him. There's the question of his ability to play back-to-backs and how much of a workload he can take on in general. I think the little he will be able to provide, will have a significant momentum changing impact on team as a whole.

His shooting is another thing we have sorely missed. Jennings is a streak shooter who can peel off several threes in a row. His ability to shoot paired next to RJ will open lanes. It will also give the second unit a more potent shot in the arm (cutting down Tolliver's brick laying). I guess I'm saying I remain guardedly optimistic about his impact.

As for our playoff chances, that rests heavily on the shoulders of Drummond maturing and Reggie getting more consistent with being aggressive. RJ has the skillset to put teams on their heels like Westbrook.

ImHeisenberg · Post #15 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 8:40 pm

Maker_84 wrote:where are people getting Meeks will be back shortly after Jennings?? Meeks isn't gonna be back until around March and getting both of them back still isn't gonna fix the lack of any size off the bench

How is getting Meeks back in February or March "shortly" after Jennings?

Maker_84 · Post #16 » by **Maker_84** » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:09 am

ImHeisenberg wrote:
Maker_84 wrote:where are people getting Meeks will be back shortly after Jennings?? Meeks isn't gonna be back until around March and getting both of them back still isn't gonna fix the lack of any size off the bench

How is getting Meeks back in February or March "shortly" after Jennings?

that's what i was wondering but people have been saying it

MotownMadness · Post #17 » by **MotownMadness** » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:26 am

Maker_84 wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:
Maker_84 wrote:where are people getting Meeks will be back shortly after Jennings?? Meeks isn't gonna be back until around March and getting both of them back still isn't gonna fix the lack of any size off the bench

How is getting Meeks back in February or March "shortly" after Jennings?

that's what i was wondering but people have been saying it

He's coming back Dec 29th or possibly Tuesday if he plays well in the DLeague right now.

BadMofoPimp · Post #18 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:21 pm

Awesome! Pistons going to the Ship!!!

Redeemed · Post #19 » by **Redeemed** » Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:30 pm

MrBigShot wrote:Nearly all of the shot creation falls on Reggie's shoulders. Anything Jennings can give us will be huge.

Speaking of shot creation, for the first time in awhile KCP looked under control creating his shots and making plays for others last night against Boston. We might be in the midst of seeing the breakthrough we expected for him. I for one was really impressed by the way he was handling Avery Bradley (an ace defender) with considerable ease.

The play of the game was his crossover step back three against Amir Johnson that had him in the "spin cycle".

DetroitSho · Post #20 » by **DetroitSho** » Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:45 pm

The East is BRUTAL. Everytime the Pistons lose they're back out of the playoffs. When they win they're back in. You absolutely can't lose a game. Boston went from 6th 2 days ago to out today. This is crazy.