Should Dre miss his 2nd FTs on purpose & try for OREB/Putback instead?

Todd3 · Post #1 » by **Todd3** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 9:29 am

I feel like over time this could actually result in more points per possession. Right now we have a 35% chance of getting 1 pt on his 2nd FTs. In order to equal that production, he would only need to get the rebound and putback 17.5% of the time. Any rate better than that would result in more PPP. But, even if he just got the rebound and got fouled again, it would still be more advantageous because then he gets 3 FTs per possession instead of 2 (not counting the 1 missed on purpose), and then he could either try to make both and end up with a "3 to make 2" scenario for the possession, or miss the 2nd on purpose again and keep trying for the rebound/putback.

Even if he didn't get the rebound, his teammates would have a better chance to get it if he bounced it off the rim towards his direction, since that's where they are positioned. Instead of trying to make it and having it roll softly off the sides where both the opposing rebounders are positioned and we have little chance at it.

There just seems to be more opportunities for us to score this way, vs just hoping he makes it and knowing the odds are against it. (And he still has the opportunity to get points on the first FT too.)

Usually the odds wouldn't favor this, but his FT% is so low and he's such a dominant offensive rebounder, I think it actually might in this situation.

If he could do it successfully, it could completely turn the intentional foul tactic against the other team. The potential for number of FTs per possession is unlimited. So if he kept getting the rebound and getting fouled, they would be intentionally fouling us over and over w/o ever getting the ball in between.

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Laimbeer · Post #2 » by **Laimbeer** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 11:29 am

Best idea since the ONBA.

Moses ShamMoses · Post #3 » by **Moses ShamMoses** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 12:32 pm

He needs to hit the rim in order for it to have any chance of working. He cant just bounce it off the backboard. I see him air-balling/missing the rim about half the time so I doubt this works. He would also get a ton of loose ball fouls trying to secure the miss.

Arp590 · Post #4 » by **Arp590** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 12:46 pm

Not a long term solution, better to just let him try to improve his way up to 50% if that's even possible...
Teams will collapse even harder for the rebound if they know what we're up to.

edmunder_prc · Post #5 » by **edmunder_prc** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 1:04 pm

Dre doesn't care. Whatever strategy you may have that would be better, he doesn't care. Buckle up and enjoy the suck. Once we pay him 20 million a year for the next 5 years, you'll get to see a lot of it.

Manocad · Post #6 » by **Manocad** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 1:20 pm

No. Simple answer. You don't address something that sucks by trying to do something else. Fix that which sucks.

Todd3 · Post #7 » by **Todd3** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 1:52 pm

Manocad wrote:No. Simple answer. You don't address something that sucks by trying to do something else. Fix that which sucks.

You don't fix something that doesn't work by continuing to do it and hoping it magically changes. It's possible he's just not a good FT shooter and never will be. That's not the worst problem a player can have. Lots of great Centers couldn't do it. Some are great at it but can't rebound like Brook Lopez. Every player has a weakness that they'll just never be good at. But if a player could choose to do their greatest strength instead of that weakness, it would be foolish to choose doing their weakness instead, which is the case here. Not all players have that option. If you're a bad 3pt shooter but good defender, your defense isn't going to help when it's time to make a 3. Lopez' great FT shooting can't help him get a rebound. However, if you're an all time worst FT shooter but all time great rebounder, you have the option to miss on purpose and play to your strength as rebounder instead. At this point I think that's the smarter option here. It's at least worth a try. Can't get any worse.

BadMofoPimp · Post #8 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 1:55 pm

Rodman sucked at FT's. He missed intentionally a few times and would be so quick he would get the ball back! I doubt Dre would get away with it though.

Todd3 · Post #9 » by **Todd3** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 2:00 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:Rodman sucked at FT's. He missed intentionally a few times and would be so quick he would get the ball back! I doubt Dre would get away with it though.

Interesting. I don't recall that.

Dre needs to try it. He has a super quick first step and I think he could do it.

Todd3 · Post #10 » by **Todd3** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 2:18 pm

Or we could try doing this with KCP as the trailer. Pope is so damn quick I bet he could do it if they practiced their timing so he knew exactly when to start running.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6ziQNSETe4[/youtube]

Bknight4three · Post #11 » by **Bknight4three** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 2:32 pm

There is a flaw in your calculation. You failed to account for the fact that we still get the chance to grab the rebound the 65% of the time when he misses while trying to make. So our rebound and putback percentage would have to increase by 17.5%, not be 17.5%.

BadMofoPimp · Post #12 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 2:38 pm

Todd3 wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:Rodman sucked at FT's. He missed intentionally a few times and would be so quick he would get the ball back! I doubt Dre would get away with it though.

Interesting. I don't recall that.

Dre needs to try it. He has a super quick first step and I think he could do it.

Rodman wouldn't do it often, but he would do it when it seemed the other team didn't expect it. I recall vividly him missing free throw as he crashed the rim so quick he also did a layup to put it back in. That is the worm for ya. He was super quick his first few years in the league.

whitehops · Post #13 » by **whitehops** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 2:44 pm

Not a practical idea in my opinion. The free throw shooter is at a disadvantage because they have to wait for the ball to hit the rim before they can cross the free throw line whereas everyone else can go for the board on the shot's release.

Also, to do this you'd have to hit the rim in a way that consistently gave the offense a decent chance, despite having bad rebounding position. Drummond would have to hit the back of the rim and considering he can barely hit a free throw I doubt he could consistently hit the back of the rim.

Then, even if he does hit the back of the rim perfectly we'd have a 50/50 chance at best to get the board. Even then it's not guaranteed we score if we get the board. And, if we don't get the board we'll have three guys by their rim and they'll have a good fast break opportunity.

There is a reason why it is a desperation move at the end of games for teams and my a viable strategy.

Kilo · Post #14 » by **Kilo** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 2:48 pm

In trying to miss he'd probably swish more.

Arp590 · Post #15 » by **Arp590** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 5:00 pm

Todd3 wrote:
Manocad wrote:No. Simple answer. You don't address something that sucks by trying to do something else. Fix that which sucks.

You don't fix something that doesn't work by continuing to do it and hoping it magically changes.

Yes you do??? Practice makes perfect. There's nothing magic about it, it's called practice. Normally when you do something enough, you get better.

By that logic Reggie Jackson should have stopped shooting 3 pointers after his 2nd season because he shot 21% and 23% in his first 2 seasons.

Todd3 · Post #16 » by **Todd3** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 5:02 pm

Bknight4three wrote:There is a flaw in your calculation. You failed to account for the fact that we still get the chance to grab the rebound the 65% of the time when he misses while trying to make. So our rebound and putback percentage would have to increase by 17.5%, not be 17.5%.

That 65% isn't much of a factor though considering we rarely get those rebounds. That's the whole point of having him miss on purpose - to try directing the rebound more in our direction instead so we have a better chance at it. Because right now he's missin em anyways and we aren't in position, with them coming off so soft and the 2 defenders having interior position. I'm talking about intentionally clanking them hard so they get more bounce off the rim and give Dre/others a chance.

RexRyan · Post #17 » by **RexRyan** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 5:25 pm

If they're doing Hack-A-Drum, right before his second free throw, bring in Baynes and Anthony and have KCP crash. Tell Dre to shoot a bank shot - that causes the ball to go in different directions.

I'll bet the substitutions would at least squeeze a timeout out of a rookie coach. We should try it one time against a crappy team. How about tonight?

Todd3 · Post #18 » by **Todd3** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 5:28 pm

Arp590 wrote:
Todd3 wrote:
Manocad wrote:No. Simple answer. You don't address something that sucks by trying to do something else. Fix that which sucks.

You don't fix something that doesn't work by continuing to do it and hoping it magically changes.

Yes you do??? Practice makes perfect. There's nothing magic about it, it's called practice. Normally when you do something enough, you get better.

By that logic Reggie Jackson should have stopped shooting 3 pointers after his 2nd season because he shot 21% and 23% in his first 2 seasons.

I'm just saying we have to accept that he might never get good at it and start thinking of alternative solutions. Don't get me wrong, I want him to get good at it, but some people can practice an instrument all day and just not have the rhythm to be a good musician. Shooting is all rhythm and some players just don't have that natural rhythm you need. At least not the way he's shooting now. That's why underhand is supposed to be more effective because you start from a natural resting position, so it's a more familiar motion/rhythm.

Todd3 · Post #19 » by **Todd3** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 5:32 pm

RexRyan wrote:If they're doing Hack-A-Drum, right before his second free throw, bring in Baynes and Anthony and have KCP crash. Tell Dre to shoot a bank shot - that causes the ball to go in different directions.

I'll bet the substitutions would at least squeeze a timeout out of a rookie coach. We should try it one time against a crappy team. How about tonight?

Exactly. I'm not saying it has to be a 24/7 thing. I'd like to try it a few times and just see what happens.

Manocad · Post #20 » by **Manocad** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 5:36 pm

Todd3 wrote:
Manocad wrote:No. Simple answer. You don't address something that sucks by trying to do something else. Fix that which sucks.

You don't fix something that doesn't work by continuing to do it and hoping it magically changes. It's possible he's just not a good FT shooter and never will be. That's not the worst problem a player can have. Lots of great Centers couldn't do it. Some are great at it but can't rebound like Brook Lopez. Every player has a weakness that they'll just never be good at. But if a player could choose to do their greatest strength instead of that weakness, it would be foolish to choose doing their weakness instead, which is the case here. Not all players have that option. If you're a bad 3pt shooter but good defender, your defense isn't going to help when it's time to make a 3. Lopez' great FT shooting can't help him get a rebound. However, if you're an all time worst FT shooter but all time great rebounder, you have the option to miss on purpose and play to your strength as rebounder instead. At this point I think that's the smarter option here. It's at least worth a try. Can't get any worse.

Dre is shooting .347 at the line this season. If you think there's more than a 35% chance that he could intentionally miss a free throw and the Pistons would rebound and score, you've haven't watched any games where guys intentionally miss free throws. I don't have the numbers but it sure as s**t works a HELLUVA lot less than 34.7% of the time.

Not to mention that other than the guard standing in the backcourt in order to get back on D, the free throw shooter has the WORST odds of getting the rebound. So your strategy doesn't play to Dre's strength at all.

And has already been mentioned before my reply, yes, you can fix something by continuing to do it. It's called practice.