2016 Free Agency - Here come the crazy contracts

Post #1 » by **theBigLip** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 9:29 pm

After reading an article that SVG says it would be a "step back" to trade an asset for a "soon to be" unrestricted free agent because EVERY team will have cap space this summer, it got me to thinking. Two questions: (1) How much total cap space is available in total for all teams, and (2) How many respectable free agents are there for this summer? (If someone is bored, go ahead and do the research - I'm currently on a call at work :-(

). Anyway, once we get those two numbers, I wonder what the average of total capspace divided by the number of free agents is. If it is like 10-15M, some players are going to get waaaayyyy overpaid.

Post #2 » by **theBigLip** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 9:34 pm

Ok, I started the work. Based on these numbers (http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/240096/The-Maximum-Available-2016-Cap-Space-For-All-30-NBA-Teams), and these assumptions:
Assuming a salary cap of $89 million. It is important to understand that maximum cap space means there are no cap holds for free agents or first round draft picks and all partial/non-guaranteed contracts are waived. Actual cap space will be less for most teams as teams and players make decisions on options, which partial/non-guaranteed contracts to retain, which free agents to keep rights on (thus retaining a cap hold) and draft pick positions (and the associated cap holds) settle in. This is simply a picture of where teams have the ability to be at come the opening of free agency next July.

Total Cap Space for ALL Teams: $972,336,973.40

Post #3 » by **theBigLip** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 10:06 pm

Ok, and now, based on the free agents in this list (http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/future_free_agents), and filtering out anyone over 32 and anyone who hasn't played 10 games yet, we are left with 127 free agents next year. And that comes out to...

$7,656,196.64 per free agent!!!

Obviously some guys are going to get a big max, and others less than this, but this is still a staggering number. And actually cap space is really higher since teams like the PIstons will do their shopping, and then go over the cap signing their free agents that they have Bird rights to. This is going to be f--king crazy off season. Think we will get Ryan Anderson for $10M a year? I'm guessing more like $15M. Reggie Jackson's contract is going to look sweet in a couple of years, since this is based on an $89M cap. The following year, it is estimated to be $107M.

Spider156 · Post #4 » by **Spider156** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 11:34 pm

Oh yeah. The cap is going to skyrocket. Reggie's contract seems very fit considering he's getting the same as John Wall. If John Wall gets a contract, you'll see him get at least 20 mill a season. Contracts are going to be thrown left and right this offseason and it'll be fun to see teams desperate for FAs throw money at them. Personally I think the only way we get Horford is if he wants to play for us. Otherwise he's getting the same contract somewhere else for sure. I think Ryan Anderson will get in the teens for sure, at least 12 million a season.

Pugz · Post #5 » by **Pugz** » Tue Feb 2, 2016 12:53 am

the cap skyrockets but if im not mistaken, it does plateau in a few years, and thats when these huge contracts may bite some teams in the ass.

Blkbrd671 · Post #6 » by **Blkbrd671** » Tue Feb 2, 2016 2:14 am

we most definitely picking up illy's contract. Even if we end up not needing him, he's a positive asset on contract vs production with the new cap

bstein14 · Post #7 » by **bstein14** » Tue Feb 2, 2016 4:48 am

I think because Illy has been slightly better than expected, he is 99% certain to get picked up. He could likely be moved for nothing to a team who needs to add a stretch four if we find a better use for cap space.

Post #8 » by **theBigLip** » Tue Feb 2, 2016 7:06 am

Agree on Illyasova. $8.4M option. Who knows, we might do a wink-wink deal where we don't do the option and agree to a multi-year deal. He may not be our starter for the entire deal, but certainly worthy of being a rotation player on a very good team.

Post #9 » by **theBigLip** » Tue Feb 2, 2016 7:06 am

The Morris trade is looking smarter everyday.

El Chivo · Post #10 » by **El Chivo** » Tue Feb 2, 2016 8:04 am

Anderson is gonna take at least 18 millions.

tmorgan · Post #11 » by **tmorgan** » Tue Feb 2, 2016 2:47 pm

Yup. Everybody's gonna get overpaid except the superstars, who can't be.

RexRyan · Post #12 » by **RexRyan** » Tue Feb 2, 2016 2:58 pm

This is why I think the deadline will be quiet. With the new cap, even our worst contract (Meeks) looks okay. My hope is that we don't get caught up in the frenzy for mediocre players (top 25% players yes, but the rest will be way overpaid), and do another Morris-like trade instead. We're still two years from toppling the Cavs......