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I figured I'd give you guys some perspective on the East this year compared to other years, since I've got too much free time today and felt like doing a little research. Perhaps you'll find this interesting. I had originally posted this in theBigLip's thread, but figured I may as well make it its own thread since its really a separate topic.

According to theBigLip's projection, which appears reasonable, TWO teams in the east will likely miss the playoffs despite having more wins than losses. The facts are these:

1) NEVER in the history of the Eastern conference has such a thing ever happened. EVER. And I mean even back in the days when there weren't 8 teams per conference making it. Its simply unheard of.

2) You have to go back over 10 years to 2004-2005 season to find a season in which ANY eastern conference team racked up more wins than losses and missed the playoffs. Lebron's Cavs did so in his second season.

3) In the years between now and that 2004-05 season, 8 of the 10 seasons had at least one team with a losing record make the playoffs.

4) You need to go back another 6 years before that to find another team that had more wins than losses and missed the playoffs. That was the Charlotte Hornets in the lockout shortened season.

5) The team to get 9th usually isn't that close to .500. In 7 of the 10 seasons since 2004-2005 that have been so far completed, teams failed hit 38 wins (or winning percentage equivalent in the lockout year). In other words, in 70% of cases the best team to miss the playoffs had at least 8 fewer wins than loses.

6) Don't even get me started about how your typical 10th place team performed! Okay, I was too lazy to take down numbers for those, but I think you can predict what that data looked like.

I think this speaks to a couple of things, the most important being that this year there is an unprecedented amount of parity in the league this year compared to other years. One thing that was really striking was looking at the disparity going on in the NBA in the early 90s and before that, where there were so many teams with losing records and just a small group of elite teams every year. The league is so much more dynamic and better than it used to be.

The other thing it of course speaks to is that the path to the playoffs in the East is the toughest its ever been. Not just compared to the last few years, but EVER. Given the lack of truly elite teams in the East I suppose you could argue I'm overselling this point a little, but I still think there's something to be said here. We might make it and we might not, and while missing will be a disappointment, I don't think its something we should overreact to.

Thoughts?

Wow, of course this happens the year we are finally good enough to make the playoffs.

Well, the other way to look at it is that we're part of that change, too.

my thought is next year we MUST win 50 or more games!

Interesting research. I knew the race was going to be "close" but didn't realize it was "elevated" to an all time high. We certainly need to play good down the stretch or another lottery for us.

Whats really crazy is there is a very real possibility that we win every single game but 2 and still miss the playoffs.

46-36 and miss the playoffs. As screwed up as that sounds it absolutely can happen. Hell it could be 47-35 and still miss.


You are not the only one looking at these things Snakes and its been bothering me for awhile now as in past years two teams always fall off. Not this year, and its crazy.

If we win tonight, we would have enough wins to make the playoffs in 6 of the last ten season, right?

Nice research. And to think over the last few years there's been a growing discussion about doing away with conferences because the east had been so weak.

What's crazier is that I don't see this as a one year occurrence. The east could have 10 playoff caliber teams for the next several years if you look at the roster makeup for most of these teams.

My favorite Arnold line applies: "Stop cheering me up!"

Figures, huh?

This is why I haven't gotten on the team much. The East is pretty crazy this year and we're in the race still being as young as we are too.

zeebneeb wrote:Whats really crazy is there is a very real possibility that we win every single game but 2 and still miss the playoffs.

46-36 and miss the playoffs. As screwed up as that sounds it absolutely can happen. Hell it could be 47-35 and still miss.


You are not the only one looking at these things Snakes and its been bothering me for awhile now as in past years two teams always fall off. Not this year, and its crazy.

If we win tonight, we would have enough wins to make the playoffs in 6 of the last ten season, right?

I count 5, with another one being a tie (and I'm not at the point where I'm interested in imagining hypothetical tie breaker scenarios).

Even the most pessimistic among us, I'm sure, are projecting more than one win from here on out.

But yeah, the chances of missing the playoffs are very, very real, but odds are 2 teams will under-perform their projected wins from here on out. We just need to make sure we aren't one of them.

Snakebites wrote:I figured I'd give you guys some perspective on the East this year compared to other years, since I've got too much free time today and felt like doing a little research. Perhaps you'll find this interesting. I had originally posted this in theBigLip's thread, but figured I may as well make it its own thread since its really a separate topic.

According to theBigLip's projection, which appears reasonable, TWO teams in the east will likely miss the playoffs despite having more wins than losses. The facts are these:

1) NEVER in the history of the Eastern conference has such a thing ever happened. EVER. And I mean even back in the days when there weren't 8 teams per conference making it. Its simply unheard of.

2) You have to go back over 10 years to 2004-2005 season to find a season in which ANY eastern conference team racked up more wins than losses and missed the playoffs. Lebron's Cavs did so in his second season.

3) In the years between now and that 2004-05 season, 8 of the 10 seasons had at least one team with a losing record make the playoffs.

4) You need to go back another 6 years before that to find another team that had more wins than losses and missed the playoffs. That was the Charlotte Hornets in the lockout shortened season.

5) The team to get 9th usually isn't that close to .500. In 7 of the 10 seasons since 2004-2005 that have been so far completed, teams failed hit 38 wins (or winning percentage equivalent in the lockout year). In other words, in 70% of cases the best team to miss the playoffs had at least 8 fewer wins than loses.

6) Don't even get me started about how your typical 10th place team performed! Okay, I was too lazy to take down numbers for those, but I think you can predict what that data looked like.

I think this speaks to a couple of things, the most important being that this year there is an unprecedented amount of parity in the league this year compared to other years. One thing that was really striking was looking at the disparity going on in the NBA in the early 90s and before that, where there were so many teams with losing records and just a small group of elite teams every year. The league is so much more dynamic and better than it used to be.

The other thing it of course speaks to is that the path to the playoffs in the East is the toughest its ever been. Not just compared to the last few years, but EVER. Given the lack of truly elite teams in the East I suppose you could argue I'm overselling this point a little, but I still think there's something to be said here. We might make it and we might not, and while missing will be a disappointment, I don't think its something we should overreact to.

Thoughts?

We have the coach. I believe that.

I said pre-season that wins and losses were irrelevant for us this season...and that's more true now than it was then!

The addition of Harris significantly improves our future and internal growth of most of our guys will make a huge impact...

Getting into the playoffs would be awesome NOW but the long term effects could be massive!

Here's hoping we get there

Tobias Harris for next-to-nothing... still chuckling at that one.

tmorgan wrote:Tobias Harris for next-to-nothing... still chuckling at that one.

What's crazy is Orlando fans really trying hard to rationalize it.

If a trade like that happened here the GM would have been crucified.

Perspective and all Magic fans.

I still cannot believe the exact player I wanted Stan to go after before the season started is now in a Pistons uniform for Jennings/Erson.

I am still in a dazed afterhaze if you will.

zeebneeb wrote:

tmorgan wrote:Tobias Harris for next-to-nothing... still chuckling at that one.

What's crazy is Orlando fans really trying hard to rationalize it.

If a trade like that happened here the GM would have been crucified.

Perspective and all Magic fans.

I still cannot believe the exact player I wanted Stan to go after before the season started is now in a Pistons uniform for Jennings/Erson.

I am still in a dazed afterhaze if you will.

And I was just hoping we could get anything of value for Jennings. We certainly scored on the trade!

zeebneeb wrote:

tmorgan wrote:Tobias Harris for next-to-nothing... still chuckling at that one.

What's crazy is Orlando fans really trying hard to rationalize it.

If a trade like that happened here the GM would have been crucified.

Perspective and all Magic fans.

I still cannot believe the exact player I wanted Stan to go after before the season started is now in a Pistons uniform for Jennings/Erson.

I am still in a dazed afterhaze if you will.

Well they do have logjams at different positions though Vucevic is who I would have looked to move first if I were their gm