OT: Rust Belt's Economic Anxiety

[pistontr]

I know this is way off topic but most of you live in Michigan and you know this issue.
How much it has affected votes, is it over emphasized or real?

[Warspite]

When/Where isn't there anxiety about the economy?

[ImHeisenberg]

This post couldn't be more vague.

[BadMofoPimp]

I used to work in the Automotive industry for Automation in Detroit until the company laid us all off. In my building there were 500 people all crying saying goodbye. Most of the people had worked there at least 10-15 years. I had like a dozen people at my desk learning how to apply for jobs online. I was teaching them tricks since I had only been there 2 years. It was rough. I decided to get out of dodge and go explore the country hiking, Skiing, hunting and working on a ranch out in Wyoming until I came back to Florida to go back to college. Detroit has changed a great deal in the last 20 years for the worse. Electing the same Democratic principles is not working. Need to at least try change.

[Kilo]

Unskilled labor manufacturing will be off shored. Folks with a HS education are not making a middle class living anymore. Unskilled manual labor isn't making a living wage. University degree gives you more options, but it's not a guarantee for anything either - not even close. Also automation and AI are replacing folks in all jobs and careers left and right. White collar careers are being decimated as well due to AI and computers - it's just beginning here really. None of those jobs are going to go back to being real live people anymore either. It's all about money for the share holders. There is going to have to be a guaranteed minimum income sooner than later as we move to a post work society. The rich are getting richer because computers and robots are doing all the work, and after the initial investment in that, all that money that would have went out in wages, fringe benefits, insurance and the like is going into the owners pocket.

Get a trade - it's skilled labor and cannot be off-shored. Get a specific skill that fills a niche - become specialized.

I was talking to my family doc recently about life in general and he basically admitted he hates his job because he's just basically a drug dispenser now. Everybody comes in pre-diagnosed do to a simple google search of they symptoms and knows what they want and more often than not they're right. Of course you have the hypochondriac that thinks everything is the worst case scenario, and it's not a bad thing that people take a more active role in their health, it's just that it's not what he expected when he chose his profession and did all the schooling and the like. AI will replace a lot of what GP doctors do, even specialists, and then robots are doing more and more surgeries as well. Would you rather a robot with a sure precise "hand" or a Doctor who might have just had a fight with their spouse who simply could never match the precision and exactness of a robot. AI is swamping financial trading as well - making millions of calculations in seconds to decide whether to buy or sell.

This isn't the car making buggy makers obsolete, there is simply the bottom line goal is every business to have the least amount of human workers as possible.

[theBigLip]

Unskilled labor manufacturing will be off shored. Folks with a HS education are not making a middle class living anymore. Unskilled manual labor isn't making a living wage. University degree gives you more options, but it's not a guarantee for anything either - not even close. Also automation and AI are replacing folks in all jobs and careers left and right. White collar careers are being decimated as well due to AI and computers - it's just beginning here really. None of those jobs are going to go back to being real live people anymore either. It's all about money for the share holders. There is going to have to be a guaranteed minimum income sooner than later as we move to a post work society. The rich are getting richer because computers and robots are doing all the work, and after the initial investment in that, all that money that would have went out in wages, fringe benefits, insurance and the like is going into the owners pocket.

Get a trade - it's skilled labor and cannot be off-shored. Get a specific skill that fills a niche - become specialized.

I was talking to my family doc recently about life in general and he basically admitted he hates his job because he's just basically a drug dispenser now. Everybody comes in pre-diagnosed do to a simple google search of they symptoms and knows what they want and more often than not they're right. Of course you have the hypochondriac that thinks everything is the worst case scenario, and it's not a bad thing that people take a more active role in their health, it's just that it's not what he expected when he chose his profession and did all the schooling and the like. AI will replace a lot of what GP doctors do, even specialists, and then robots are doing more and more surgeries as well. Would you rather a robot with a sure precise "hand" or a Doctor who might have just had a fight with their spouse who simply could never match the precision and exactness of a robot. AI is swamping financial trading as well - making millions of calculations in seconds to decide whether to buy or sell.

This isn't the car making buggy makers obsolete, there is simply the bottom line goal is every business to have the least amount of human workers as possible.

Great post and saved me time from making many of the same points

In a perfect world, all this automation would be great - we could now just work 30 hours a week, we wouldn't need two income families, etc. But all the benefits of automation are going to the super rich. The middle class is disappearing and like Kilo mentioned, it isn't coming back, or at least like we were used to.

As for Trump, he got elected by telling everyone he was going to bring back jobs to the US. I have serious doubts that he will do that, but let's see how he does on that promise. Most likely, he will pass a bunch of laws that have titles with "Job Creation" in them, but they will just lower corporate taxes and reduce regulations to make it easier for corporations to make even more money. That doesn't create jobs - corporations only hire people when they need more workers to provide their products/services. Just because they are making more money doesn't mean they will go on a hiring binge. So I'm expecting things to get worse, not better.

[Warspite]

Unskilled labor manufacturing will be off shored. Folks with a HS education are not making a middle class living anymore. Unskilled manual labor isn't making a living wage. University degree gives you more options, but it's not a guarantee for anything either - not even close. Also automation and AI are replacing folks in all jobs and careers left and right. White collar careers are being decimated as well due to AI and computers - it's just beginning here really. None of those jobs are going to go back to being real live people anymore either. It's all about money for the share holders. There is going to have to be a guaranteed minimum income sooner than later as we move to a post work society. The rich are getting richer because computers and robots are doing all the work, and after the initial investment in that, all that money that would have went out in wages, fringe benefits, insurance and the like is going into the owners pocket.

Get a trade - it's skilled labor and cannot be off-shored. Get a specific skill that fills a niche - become specialized.

I was talking to my family doc recently about life in general and he basically admitted he hates his job because he's just basically a drug dispenser now. Everybody comes in pre-diagnosed do to a simple google search of they symptoms and knows what they want and more often than not they're right. Of course you have the hypochondriac that thinks everything is the worst case scenario, and it's not a bad thing that people take a more active role in their health, it's just that it's not what he expected when he chose his profession and did all the schooling and the like. AI will replace a lot of what GP doctors do, even specialists, and then robots are doing more and more surgeries as well. Would you rather a robot with a sure precise "hand" or a Doctor who might have just had a fight with their spouse who simply could never match the precision and exactness of a robot. AI is swamping financial trading as well - making millions of calculations in seconds to decide whether to buy or sell.

This isn't the car making buggy makers obsolete, there is simply the bottom line goal is every business to have the least amount of human workers as possible.

Great post and saved me time from making many of the same points

In a perfect world, all this automation would be great - we could now just work 30 hours a week, we wouldn't need two income families, etc. But all the benefits of automation are going to the super rich. The middle class is disappearing and like Kilo mentioned, it isn't coming back, or at least like we were used to.

As for Trump, he got elected by telling everyone he was going to bring back jobs to the US. I have serious doubts that he will do that, but let's see how he does on that promise. Most likely, he will pass a bunch of laws that have titles with "Job Creation" in them, but they will just lower corporate taxes and reduce regulations to make it easier for corporations to make even more money. That doesn't create jobs - corporations only hire people when they need more workers to provide their products/services. Just because they are making more money doesn't mean they will go on a hiring binge. So I'm expecting things to get worse, not better.

No hiring until demand increases. No demand increasing until hiring.


As a business owner I must say that regulations are killing me. I'm skeptical of Trump being able to bring back manufacturing as well. At least not to 1960-80 standards. UAW/GM workers used to pay me to read them the Detroit News because they couldn't read but they made 8x min wage. IMHO that was a distortion in the other direction and overpaying those guys meant that the money wasn't going to be spent or invested wisely. It also meant that everything was expensive for everyone else who wasn't making that wage. Now its the opposite. W/O the high paying jobs property and cost of living have cratered making reinvestment attractive. Being from Flint I don't see how my town will ever recover since most of its talent moved south and health costs from the led will make it unattractive even if you can buy a acre of land for the price of a good steak.

We are headed into a world which doesn't require as much labor yet has more people with more idol time. The dignity of work is being lost and WoW, pot, sports and porn are only going to subjugate the masses for so long before revolution, anarchy and civil unrest appear. Rome, Russia 1917, French revolution and 1930s Germany/Italy are all exits on this road.

I don't think Trump can fix this but I know Hillary would have done nothing or made it worse. So its a gamble, a lottery ticket a roll of the dice on the unknown because the known is fubar.

[DBC10]

Yeah like what Kilo said, automation is the future. Manufacturing jobs are going to be continually to be offshored because it affects the bottom line of a typical company so much.

Hell, most companies nowadays HATE doing any kind of work in-house when it comes to making products. They have multiple Tier 1, 2, 3 etc suppliers to do that while having the select few core functions in-house because of trade secrets. It saves so much money and time just vetting suppliers/3rd party manufacturers rather than setting up warehouses and manufacturing plants that others can specialize for a fraction of the cost you can.

As long as more and more companies move their non-core operations away to 3rd parties, offshoring is an easy choice down the line to save on even more costs. In a business, you have to assume demand is more or less constant, you have to forecast well and try to minimize all sorts of disruptions and variations in it. Most companies have done that, now that part is done, you go and look at your costs and operations, which is what the majority of the costs are going to be found.

I mean, this is the basics of supply chain, I haven't even discussed the vastness of it all. But companies know that is where the savings will be squeezed out.

It's an easy decision why companies continue to offshore and move to automations. I hope the transition from manufacturing to automation is gradual and pleasant and hopefully the workers aren't going to be suffering too much.

[Manocad]

As a worker in the automotive industry, which is all I've ever done since college, I'll throw my two cents in when I'm on the computer and not enjoying an adult beverage at the local watering hole and typing on my phone.

[tmorgan]

Unskilled labor manufacturing will be off shored. Folks with a HS education are not making a middle class living anymore. Unskilled manual labor isn't making a living wage. University degree gives you more options, but it's not a guarantee for anything either - not even close. Also automation and AI are replacing folks in all jobs and careers left and right. White collar careers are being decimated as well due to AI and computers - it's just beginning here really. None of those jobs are going to go back to being real live people anymore either. It's all about money for the share holders. There is going to have to be a guaranteed minimum income sooner than later as we move to a post work society. The rich are getting richer because computers and robots are doing all the work, and after the initial investment in that, all that money that would have went out in wages, fringe benefits, insurance and the like is going into the owners pocket.

Get a trade - it's skilled labor and cannot be off-shored. Get a specific skill that fills a niche - become specialized.

I was talking to my family doc recently about life in general and he basically admitted he hates his job because he's just basically a drug dispenser now. Everybody comes in pre-diagnosed do to a simple google search of they symptoms and knows what they want and more often than not they're right. Of course you have the hypochondriac that thinks everything is the worst case scenario, and it's not a bad thing that people take a more active role in their health, it's just that it's not what he expected when he chose his profession and did all the schooling and the like. AI will replace a lot of what GP doctors do, even specialists, and then robots are doing more and more surgeries as well. Would you rather a robot with a sure precise "hand" or a Doctor who might have just had a fight with their spouse who simply could never match the precision and exactness of a robot. AI is swamping financial trading as well - making millions of calculations in seconds to decide whether to buy or sell.

This isn't the car making buggy makers obsolete, there is simply the bottom line goal is every business to have the least amount of human workers as possible.

Really great post, Kilo.

[Manocad]

Ok, now I'm home.

I can obviously only speak about the automotive industry but that applies to the Rust Belt, i.e. Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin. The whole idea that "the middle class is shrinking" is bulls**t. If that were the case you'd see tons of middle class houses for sale while lower class houses were getting snapped up. THAT IS NOT HAPPENING. It's rhetoric spewed to people who want to make excuses for f***ing up their own lives and will cast a vote a certain way because someone is patting their back and saying, "There, there, it's not your fault." The middle class makes the same relative money and lives the same relative existence it always has. The reason the gap between the rich and the middle class is increasing in the US is because DUH--THE RICH DON'T HAVE TO SPEND ALL THEIR MONEY. Their income increases due to interest on existing wealth. The middle class has now, has always, and always will have, little to no net worth--middle class people spend all their money on basic living, thus no increase in net worth. That's life--WE CAN'T ALL BE RICH. You think you know a gap between the rich and the middle class in the US? Go back and look at the royal family in England in the middle ages vs. the middle class. Are you effing kidding me? NOWHERE CLOSE TO THE INCOME GAP we see now in the US. It was MONSTROUS by comparison.

That all being said, if you understand economics you know that the countries that can make simple products the most cheaply should make them, and the countries that can make complex products the most cheaply should make them. The US is a very educated, skilled and highly efficient nation. If you want unskilled jobs in the US to support families, you're asking us as Americans to turn the US into a 3rd world country.

[theBigLip]

The whole idea that "the middle class is shrinking" is bulls**t. If that were the case you'd see tons of middle class houses for sale while lower class houses were getting snapped up. THAT IS NOT HAPPENING. It's rhetoric spewed to people who want to make excuses for f***ing up their own lives and will cast a vote a certain way because someone is patting their back and saying, "There, there, it's not your fault." The middle class makes the same relative money and lives the same relative existence it always has. The reason the gap between the rich and the middle class is increasing in the US is because DUH--THE RICH DON'T HAVE TO SPEND ALL THEIR MONEY. Their income increases due to interest on existing wealth. The middle class has now, has always, and always will have, little to no net worth--middle class people spend all their money on basic living, thus no increase in net worth. .

This one I have to disagree with. The middle class is shrinking. All the manufacturing jobs that have disappeared since the 80s? Those people were "middle class". Those are gone. And like you and others have mentioned, automation keeps eliminating jobs. I work for a high tech manufacturer, and to cut operation costs, it always ends up cutting people. People with good middle class jobs. The big crash in 2009? Most of those jobs never came back - companies learned to live with less. And all the gains since 2009? They have all gone to the super wealthy while wages have remained flat.

[Pharaoh]

It's funny to me that the middle class complains about being squeezed when they've got a $500 phone & drive a $30k car.

They flick switches and machines turn on, turn a tap and get water.

We ALL live like Kings while thousands of people every year starve!

Wanna be rich? Don't spend money! Save it, invest it, learn to live with less.

Sent from my SM-J110F using RealGM mobile app

[Manocad]

The whole idea that "the middle class is shrinking" is bulls**t. If that were the case you'd see tons of middle class houses for sale while lower class houses were getting snapped up. THAT IS NOT HAPPENING. It's rhetoric spewed to people who want to make excuses for f***ing up their own lives and will cast a vote a certain way because someone is patting their back and saying, "There, there, it's not your fault." The middle class makes the same relative money and lives the same relative existence it always has. The reason the gap between the rich and the middle class is increasing in the US is because DUH--THE RICH DON'T HAVE TO SPEND ALL THEIR MONEY. Their income increases due to interest on existing wealth. The middle class has now, has always, and always will have, little to no net worth--middle class people spend all their money on basic living, thus no increase in net worth. .

This one I have to disagree with. The middle class is shrinking. All the manufacturing jobs that have disappeared since the 80s? Those people were "middle class". Those are gone. And like you and others have mentioned, automation keeps eliminating jobs. I work for a high tech manufacturer, and to cut operation costs, it always ends up cutting people. People with good middle class jobs. The big crash in 2009? Most of those jobs never came back - companies learned to live with less. And all the gains since 2009? They have all gone to the super wealthy while wages have remained flat.

Disagree all you want. I'll say it again--MIDDLE CLASS HOUSES ARE NOT BEING SOLD WHILE LOWER CLASS HOUSES ARE BEING BOUGHT BY FORMERLY MIDDLE CLASS PEOPLE. It's rhetoric. If what you say is true, lower class neighborhoods would be growing--THAT'S NOT HAPPENING.

[Manocad]

It's funny to me that the middle class complains about being squeezed when they've got a $500 phone & drive a $30k car.

They flick switches and machines turn on, turn a tap and get water.

We ALL live like Kings while thousands of people every year starve!

Wanna be rich? Don't spend money! Save it, invest it, learn to live with less.

Sent from my SM-J110F using RealGM mobile app

Bingo

[theBigLip]

The whole idea that "the middle class is shrinking" is bulls**t. If that were the case you'd see tons of middle class houses for sale while lower class houses were getting snapped up. THAT IS NOT HAPPENING. It's rhetoric spewed to people who want to make excuses for f***ing up their own lives and will cast a vote a certain way because someone is patting their back and saying, "There, there, it's not your fault." The middle class makes the same relative money and lives the same relative existence it always has. The reason the gap between the rich and the middle class is increasing in the US is because DUH--THE RICH DON'T HAVE TO SPEND ALL THEIR MONEY. Their income increases due to interest on existing wealth. The middle class has now, has always, and always will have, little to no net worth--middle class people spend all their money on basic living, thus no increase in net worth. .

This one I have to disagree with. The middle class is shrinking. All the manufacturing jobs that have disappeared since the 80s? Those people were "middle class". Those are gone. And like you and others have mentioned, automation keeps eliminating jobs. I work for a high tech manufacturer, and to cut operation costs, it always ends up cutting people. People with good middle class jobs. The big crash in 2009? Most of those jobs never came back - companies learned to live with less. And all the gains since 2009? They have all gone to the super wealthy while wages have remained flat.

Disagree all you want. I'll say it again--MIDDLE CLASS HOUSES ARE NOT BEING SOLD WHILE LOWER CLASS HOUSES ARE BEING BOUGHT BY FORMERLY MIDDLE CLASS PEOPLE. It's rhetoric. If what you say is true, lower class neighborhoods would be growing--THAT'S NOT HAPPENING.

There are a lot of variables in the housing market. One of them is interest rates and they are at a historic low. If they were 5-6%, the housing market would be a lot softer.

[theBigLip]

It's funny to me that the middle class complains about being squeezed when they've got a $500 phone & drive a $30k car.

They flick switches and machines turn on, turn a tap and get water.

We ALL live like Kings while thousands of people every year starve!

Wanna be rich? Don't spend money! Save it, invest it, learn to live with less.

Sent from my SM-J110F using RealGM mobile app

Bingo

Pharaoh makes a good point that we should be grateful compared to other countries, and we can get by with a lot less, but that still doesn't mean the middle class jobs are not disappearing in the US. Regardless, I'm good with downsizing and needing/using less.

[Pharaoh]

It's funny to me that the middle class complains about being squeezed when they've got a $500 phone & drive a $30k car.

They flick switches and machines turn on, turn a tap and get water.

We ALL live like Kings while thousands of people every year starve!

Wanna be rich? Don't spend money! Save it, invest it, learn to live with less.

Sent from my SM-J110F using RealGM mobile app

Bingo

Pharaoh makes a good point that we should be grateful compared to other countries, and we can get by with a lot less, but that still doesn't mean the middle class jobs are not disappearing in the US. Regardless, I'm good with downsizing and needing/using less.

Those jobs are disappearing cause other countries have people working for less $$$!

If you owned Nike would you make your shoes in Oz or the USA, pay a dude $20 per hour to do it OR have a bunch of Indians or Asians do the exact same job for less than half the hourly rate?

It's simple math!

So instead of the middle class whining about losing jobs that will NEVER return take 5 minutes to search for the industries screaming for workers!

Aged care for one! With people living longer the need is gonna be there! Act now, get skilled and then go hunt jobs in that industry

Or become a plumber, electrician, carpenter etc

****, go work at a supermarket and get into management in that part of retail - **** always gotta eat!

I know dudes who worked at a mine for 10 years! Got paid $200k a year, bought a $400k house, a $20k boat, a big **** off 4×4 for $80k, bought the Mrs a SUV for $35k, went on epic holidays every year that cost $10k for the fam...

Now the mine has laid off workers and dude is forced to move all his **** looking for another mining job half way across the country!

So instead of living on $100k a year, spending maybe $40k on 2 cars, having ONE great holiday for the decade, not buying a boat he only used once a month he's now FUBAR!

Living the "good" life is great...but unless you can sustain it for 50 years you're gonna feel the pain eventually

Live with less! Get a job that can't be moved off shore! Save money, invest money!

You work so hard to provide a life for yourself & family...be smart!

Sent from my SM-J110F using RealGM mobile app

[pistontr]

Unskilled labor manufacturing will be off shored. Folks with a HS education are not making a middle class living anymore. Unskilled manual labor isn't making a living wage. University degree gives you more options, but it's not a guarantee for anything either - not even close. Also automation and AI are replacing folks in all jobs and careers left and right. White collar careers are being decimated as well due to AI and computers - it's just beginning here really. None of those jobs are going to go back to being real live people anymore either. It's all about money for the share holders. There is going to have to be a guaranteed minimum income sooner than later as we move to a post work society. The rich are getting richer because computers and robots are doing all the work, and after the initial investment in that, all that money that would have went out in wages, fringe benefits, insurance and the like is going into the owners pocket.

Get a trade - it's skilled labor and cannot be off-shored. Get a specific skill that fills a niche - become specialized.

I was talking to my family doc recently about life in general and he basically admitted he hates his job because he's just basically a drug dispenser now. Everybody comes in pre-diagnosed do to a simple google search of they symptoms and knows what they want and more often than not they're right. Of course you have the hypochondriac that thinks everything is the worst case scenario, and it's not a bad thing that people take a more active role in their health, it's just that it's not what he expected when he chose his profession and did all the schooling and the like. AI will replace a lot of what GP doctors do, even specialists, and then robots are doing more and more surgeries as well. Would you rather a robot with a sure precise "hand" or a Doctor who might have just had a fight with their spouse who simply could never match the precision and exactness of a robot. AI is swamping financial trading as well - making millions of calculations in seconds to decide whether to buy or sell.

This isn't the car making buggy makers obsolete, there is simply the bottom line goal is every business to have the least amount of human workers as possible.

what if there isn't a guaranteed minimum income in future? will populism turn fascism?

[Manocad]

This one I have to disagree with. The middle class is shrinking. All the manufacturing jobs that have disappeared since the 80s? Those people were "middle class". Those are gone. And like you and others have mentioned, automation keeps eliminating jobs. I work for a high tech manufacturer, and to cut operation costs, it always ends up cutting people. People with good middle class jobs. The big crash in 2009? Most of those jobs never came back - companies learned to live with less. And all the gains since 2009? They have all gone to the super wealthy while wages have remained flat.

Disagree all you want. I'll say it again--MIDDLE CLASS HOUSES ARE NOT BEING SOLD WHILE LOWER CLASS HOUSES ARE BEING BOUGHT BY FORMERLY MIDDLE CLASS PEOPLE. It's rhetoric. If what you say is true, lower class neighborhoods would be growing--THAT'S NOT HAPPENING.

There are a lot of variables in the housing market. One of them is interest rates and they are at a historic low. If they were 5-6%, the housing market would be a lot softer.

That has nothing to do with the point that the middle class is not being "squeezed" out of their middle class houses and into lower class houses, or that lower class neighborhoods are now filling up with what have otherwise been middle class people.