ImHeisenberg wrote:I've no opinion on it. I have zero expectations for anyone picked at 42, so go nuts. I'm a believer in swinging for the fences opposed to drafting 23 year old rookies.
most freshman are gone in the first round unless there are complications (frank jackson's injury, went 31st, etc.).
not sure what "swinging for the fences" means when it comes to second round picks (even SUPER raw players like skal went late first round), but the vast majority of successful ones have been long-term college players.
2012
draymond green (35th) - senior
khris middleton (39th) - junior
jae crowder (34th) - senior
2013
nobody worth mentioning
2014
nikola jokic (41st) - was 19 but was a stash prospect
jordan clarkson (46th) - junior
spencer dinwiddie (38th) - junior and had a knee injury (torn ACL)
2015
josh richardson (40th) - senior
montrezl harrell (32nd) - junior
richuan holmes (37th) - senior
2016
malcolm brogdon (36th) - senior
2017
jordan bell (37th) - junior
so in the last six drafts none of them were elite athletes, supremely skilled or developed. jokic was the only player that was younger than like 21/22 and it took him time to come overseas.
if you consider the players above positive contributors then there is roughly an 11/180 chance of them panning out, which is 6%. of those 11 players, only one went later than 42 (where we pick this year), and that was jordan clarkson at 46. there were a few more (middleton, jokic, richardson) that were close to that range but pretty much the odds of us landing a contributing player with that pick is a fraction of a percent (my best guess).