theBigLip's Annual Playoff Predictor 2019

[theBigLip]

Nice loss for Orlando today. We got Brooklyn and Miami this week, a good opportunity to solidify our #6 seed. And there is no way Brooklyn is going 2-12 down the stretch, but they will not be favored in any of those 12.

The latest...

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
6. Detroit (41-41) (7-10)
7. Orlando (38-44) (7-7)
8. Brooklyn (37-45) (2-12)
8. Miami (37-45) (6-10)
10. Charlotte (35-47) (5-11)

Barring injury, I see the Pistons going 10-7 the rest of the way.

I don’t think 44-38 is unrealistic at this point.

Pistons are hot, so I don't want to under estimate them, but the schedule makes 10-7 pretty hard.

Mon, Mar 11 at Brooklyn Loss 34 32
Wed, Mar 13 at Miami Loss 34 33
Fri, Mar 15 vs LA Lakers Win 35 33
Sun, Mar 17 vs Toronto Loss 35 34
Mon, Mar 18 at Cleveland Win 36 34
Thu, Mar 21 at Phoenix Win 37 34
Sat, Mar 23 at Portland Loss 37 35
Sun, Mar 24 at Golden State Loss 37 36
Tue, Mar 26 at Denver Loss 37 37
Thu, Mar 28 vs Orlando Win 38 37
Sat, Mar 30 vs Portland Loss 38 38
Mon, Apr 1 at Indiana Loss 38 39
Wed, Apr 3 vs Indiana Loss 38 40
Fri, Apr 5 at Oklahoma City Loss 38 41
Sun, Apr 7 vs Charlotte Win 39 41
Tue, Apr 9 vs Memphis Win 40 41
Wed, Apr 10 at New York Win 41 41

[vege]

As long as we beat Toronto again and sweep them in the regular season I'll be happy.

We should beat Indiana, at least in Detroit, they're not a good team at all. Their defense is good but their offense in a complete disaster.

[DetroitSho]

We're supposed to go 0-4 against Portland and Indiana?

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[Snakebites]

We're supposed to go 0-4 against Portland and Indiana?

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We probably won't.

But we also probably won't win every single one of those games we're projected to win either, so it balances out.

Odds are definitely in our favor for the 6th seed, but what I really want more than anything is a winning record. I'd rather have a winning record and fall to 7th than make it to the 6th without one. Irrational? Sure. But being a fan isn't always rational. I need this.

[DetroitPistons]

We're supposed to go 0-4 against Portland and Indiana?

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We probably won't.

But we also probably won't win every single one of those games we're projected to win either, so it balances out.

Odds are definitely in our favor for the 6th seed, but what I really want more than anything is a winning record. I'd rather have a winning record and fall to 7th than make it to the 6th without one. Irrational? Sure. But being a fan isn't always rational. I need this.

I'm sure a good amount of fans wouldn't even mind falling back to 7 since many feel that TOR is a better matchup for us than PHI. I personally just want us to win as much as we possibly can and do our best in the playoffs.

[El Chivo]

Nice loss for Orlando today. We got Brooklyn and Miami this week, a good opportunity to solidify our #6 seed. And there is no way Brooklyn is going 2-12 down the stretch, but they will not be favored in any of those 12.

The latest...

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
6. Detroit (41-41) (7-10)
7. Orlando (38-44) (7-7)
8. Brooklyn (37-45) (2-12)
8. Miami (37-45) (6-10)
10. Charlotte (35-47) (5-11)

Barring injury, I see the Pistons going 10-7 the rest of the way.

I don’t think 44-38 is unrealistic at this point.

Pistons are hot, so I don't want to under estimate them, but the schedule makes 10-7 pretty hard.

Mon, Mar 11 at Brooklyn Loss 34 32
Wed, Mar 13 at Miami Loss 34 33
Fri, Mar 15 vs LA Lakers Win 35 33
Sun, Mar 17 vs Toronto Loss 35 34
Mon, Mar 18 at Cleveland Win 36 34
Thu, Mar 21 at Phoenix Win 37 34
Sat, Mar 23 at Portland Loss 37 35
Sun, Mar 24 at Golden State Loss 37 36
Tue, Mar 26 at Denver Loss 37 37
Thu, Mar 28 vs Orlando Win 38 37
Sat, Mar 30 vs Portland Loss 38 38
Mon, Apr 1 at Indiana Loss 38 39
Wed, Apr 3 vs Indiana Loss 38 40
Fri, Apr 5 at Oklahoma City Loss 38 41
Sun, Apr 7 vs Charlotte Win 39 41
Tue, Apr 9 vs Memphis Win 40 41
Wed, Apr 10 at New York Win 41 41

I envision one more w

[zeebneeb]

I wont predict the final games but I will put just a reminder and an update for those who will/have in case some adjustments might be made

Pistons past 14 games:


#1 Win% 12-2 .857
#4 PPG 117.9
#1 FG% 49.1
#1 3P% 41.5
#1 +/- 11.1

#7 DEF RTG 108.0

17 GAMES REMAIN

So a 9-8 prediction wouldnt seem optimistic, or out of line and if anything a little undervalued. That would put them at 43-39.

I'd say the odds of the Pistons finishing with a positive record are very good and if they win tonight(Brooklyn)it will be even higher as it's a road game.

The Pistons have 7 home games remaining. 3 of which are against +.500 teams. If you mark only the other 4 as wins, that's 4-13 to finish.(38-44)If you pick only wins against teams that are below .500 total that's 8-9 that's still 42-40.

I dont see how the Pistons dont finish at least 9-8(43-39)to finish the season based on how they are currently playing.

Unless the team just implodes in the final 17, this team is absolutely playoff bound.

[BadMofoPimp]

I wont predict the final games but I will put just a reminder and an update for those who will/have in case some adjustments might be made

Pistons past 14 games:


#1 Win% 12-2 .857
#4 PPG 117.9
#1 FG% 49.1
#1 3P% 41.5
#1 +/- 11.1

#7 DEF RTG 108.0

17 GAMES REMAIN

So a 9-8 prediction wouldnt seem optimistic, or out of line and if anything a little undervalued. That would put them at 43-39.

I'd say the odds of the Pistons finishing with a positive record are very good and if they win tonight(Brooklyn)it will be even higher as it's a road game.

The Pistons have 7 home games remaining. 3 of which are against +.500 teams. If you mark only the other 4 as wins, that's 4-13 to finish.(38-44)If you pick only wins against teams that are below .500 total that's 8-9 that's still 42-40.

I dont see how the Pistons dont finish at least 9-8(43-39)to finish the season based on how they are currently playing.

Unless the team just implodes in the final 17, this team is absolutely playoff bound.

538 has the Pistons at 99% odds of making the playoffs. So, I reckon they could still lose out and not make it.

[zeebneeb]

I wont predict the final games but I will put just a reminder and an update for those who will/have in case some adjustments might be made

Pistons past 14 games:


#1 Win% 12-2 .857
#4 PPG 117.9
#1 FG% 49.1
#1 3P% 41.5
#1 +/- 11.1

#7 DEF RTG 108.0

17 GAMES REMAIN

So a 9-8 prediction wouldnt seem optimistic, or out of line and if anything a little undervalued. That would put them at 43-39.

I'd say the odds of the Pistons finishing with a positive record are very good and if they win tonight(Brooklyn)it will be even higher as it's a road game.

The Pistons have 7 home games remaining. 3 of which are against +.500 teams. If you mark only the other 4 as wins, that's 4-13 to finish.(38-44)If you pick only wins against teams that are below .500 total that's 8-9 that's still 42-40.

I dont see how the Pistons dont finish at least 9-8(43-39)to finish the season based on how they are currently playing.

Unless the team just implodes in the final 17, this team is absolutely playoff bound.

538 has the Pistons at 99% odds of making the playoffs. So, I reckon they could still lose out and not make it.

Of course there's a chance they implode and as a Pistons fan the past 10 years have taught me that.

With that said, a win tonight all but cements a berth, and more then likely a winning record.

I belive so much in this team I'm going to another damn game(the arena and area are just awesome) next Sunday vs the Raptors. Should be a packed house! Great damn seats.

[tmorgan]

I belive so much in this team I'm going to another damn game(the arena and area are just awesome) next Sunday vs the Raptors. Should be a packed house! Great damn seats.

"Accidentally" trip a few Raps fans for us.

[El Chivo]

Miami is red hot

[theBigLip]

Things are looking good. Essentially a lock for #6 (although that is a matchup problem with Philly). Good (and unexpected) win over Toronto.

I did change a few settings in the model:
- Indiana went from a "Great" team to a "Good" team
- Lakers and New Orleans went from "Good" teams to "Bad" teams.

We still have the usual season ending variables such as when teams clinch their spot and decide to rest players, etc. Buut here is what I got for now as of 3/17:

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
6. Detroit (43-39) (7-6)
7. Brooklyn (38-44) (2-8)
8. Orlando (37-45) (4-7)
8. Miami (37-45) (4-9)
8. Charlotte (37-45) (6-7)

[Snakebites]

Things are looking good. Essentially a lock for #6 (although that is a matchup problem with Philly). Good (and unexpected) win over Toronto.

I did change a few settings in the model:
- Indiana went from a "Great" team to a "Good" team
- Lakers and New Orleans went from "Good" teams to "Bad" teams.

We still have the usual season ending variables such as when teams clinch their spot and decide to rest players, etc. Buut here is what I got for now as of 3/17:

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
6. Detroit (43-39) (7-6)
7. Brooklyn (38-44) (2-8)
8. Orlando (37-45) (4-7)
8. Miami (37-45) (4-9)
8. Charlotte (37-45) (6-7)

I do agree about the bad matchup with Philly, but does anyone really want to play as badly as we’d need to play for the Nets to pass us?

Momentum over matchup at this point, I’d say.

Regular season results aren’t great predictors. It’s clear the Raptors are a better matchup but that doesn’t mean we’d actually beat them in a series.

[theBigLip]

Things are looking good. Essentially a lock for #6 (although that is a matchup problem with Philly). Good (and unexpected) win over Toronto.

I did change a few settings in the model:
- Indiana went from a "Great" team to a "Good" team
- Lakers and New Orleans went from "Good" teams to "Bad" teams.

We still have the usual season ending variables such as when teams clinch their spot and decide to rest players, etc. Buut here is what I got for now as of 3/17:

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
6. Detroit (43-39) (7-6)
7. Brooklyn (38-44) (2-8)
8. Orlando (37-45) (4-7)
8. Miami (37-45) (4-9)
8. Charlotte (37-45) (6-7)

I do agree about the bad matchup with Philly, but does anyone really want to play as badly as we’d need to play for the Nets to pass us?

Momentum over matchup at this point, I’d say.

Regular season results aren’t great predictors. It’s clear the Raptors are a better matchup but that doesn’t mean we’d actually beat them in a series.

Totally agree. And at this point, any single playoff win would be a step forward for the franchise. Hopefully we can do that this year. If we won a series? That would be insane.

[Snakebites]

Things are looking good. Essentially a lock for #6 (although that is a matchup problem with Philly). Good (and unexpected) win over Toronto.

I did change a few settings in the model:
- Indiana went from a "Great" team to a "Good" team
- Lakers and New Orleans went from "Good" teams to "Bad" teams.

We still have the usual season ending variables such as when teams clinch their spot and decide to rest players, etc. Buut here is what I got for now as of 3/17:

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
6. Detroit (43-39) (7-6)
7. Brooklyn (38-44) (2-8)
8. Orlando (37-45) (4-7)
8. Miami (37-45) (4-9)
8. Charlotte (37-45) (6-7)

I do agree about the bad matchup with Philly, but does anyone really want to play as badly as we’d need to play for the Nets to pass us?

Momentum over matchup at this point, I’d say.

Regular season results aren’t great predictors. It’s clear the Raptors are a better matchup but that doesn’t mean we’d actually beat them in a series.

Totally agree. And at this point, any single playoff win would be a step forward for the franchise. Hopefully we can do that this year. If we won a series? That would be insane.

I felt differently before I actually sat down and looked at what a 7th seed fall off would really look like for this team. We’d be unlikely to beat Toronto or anyone else in a playoff game if we closed out like that. Stay the course and grab that winning record.

[BadMofoPimp]

Things are looking good. Essentially a lock for #6 (although that is a matchup problem with Philly). Good (and unexpected) win over Toronto.

I did change a few settings in the model:
- Indiana went from a "Great" team to a "Good" team
- Lakers and New Orleans went from "Good" teams to "Bad" teams.

We still have the usual season ending variables such as when teams clinch their spot and decide to rest players, etc. Buut here is what I got for now as of 3/17:

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
6. Detroit (43-39) (7-6)
7. Brooklyn (38-44) (2-8)
8. Orlando (37-45) (4-7)
8. Miami (37-45) (4-9)
8. Charlotte (37-45) (6-7)

I am a Magic fan but would never discount the Heat during Wades last season. They have loads of talent there and can beat top teams on a given night. Will be an interesting battle for the 8th spot. Nets been playing surprisingly well against good teams as well.

[bstein14]

Next two games are huge because after Cleveland and Phoenix the schedule is probably our toughest stretch of the season. I've been saying 41-41 for a while now but I do think 42 to 43 wins is possible. I also think we would be smart to rest Blake for 2 or 3 games down the stretch and maybe even Reggie as both have had injury issues in the past. For sure the game at Golden State is a back to back for us and could be a useful game to rest some guys and chalk up to "load management" as we also have more remaining games left than many other teams.

[theBigLip]

We should still be #6 as we are winding down. I think one of the biggest variables at this point is who is resting players down the stretch. Brooklyn is facing a lot of playoff teams to finish their regular season - will their opponent be playing 100% and just resting for the playoffs? They could certainly challenge us for #6 if they catch some teams resting their stars.

Regardless, it will be tight for #7 and #8.

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
6. Detroit (42-40) (5-4)
7. Brooklyn (39-43) (1-6)
7. Miami (39-43) (3-6)
7. Charlotte (39-43) (5-4)
10. Orlando (38-44) (2-6)

[theBigLip]

Here is my final update. Brooklyn obviously picked up a few games that were were underdogs in, but thinngs have played out pretty well. And the Pistons should win out to get #6. What could possibly go wrong?

Team (Predicted W-L) (Remaining W-L)
6. Detroit (42-40) (3-0)
7. Brooklyn (41-41) (1-1)
8. Orlando (40-42) (0-2)
9. Charlotte (39-43) (2-1)
10. Miami (38-44) (0-3)

[bstein14]

All the teams did considerably better than estimated. They won a combined 18 more games than what were estimated to win.
Overall, perhaps you need fewer "great" and "good" teams in your formula next season.
# Team (Predicted W-L) ACTUAL Interesting that the model did predict the seeds correctly, Brooklyn and Orlando had identical records as predicted, detroit had one fewer win than them as predicted, and Charlotte and Miami had identical records as predicted.
6. Brooklyn (38-44) +4
6. Orlando (38-44) 42 +4
8. Detroit (37-45) 41 +4
9. Charlotte (36-46) 39 +3
9. Miami (36-46) 39 +3