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Kennards value?

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Kennards value? 

Post#1 » by dVs33 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:31 pm

Hyperthetically, if Luke was up for a new deal this off-season, what kind of deal do you think he's worth?
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#2 » by Pharaoh » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:13 am

Given his injury issues and level of play I'd put him below LaVine, Brogdon, Hield at the time they signed their deals.

Those guys got between 19-24 mil if memory serves.

Just looked up Denver's Harris. When he signed his deal he was probably in a similar situation to Luke.

So that puts Luke in the 15-20 mil range!

That's a lot of money to invest in a 3rd or 4th option at the beginning of a rebuild, especially when we don't have a legit first or 2nd option!

It's why I would prefer to trade him for a pick (or picks) and reset that contract.

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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#3 » by ByeByeDre » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:41 am

Trade. Him. Now.
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#4 » by dVs33 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:44 am

Pharaoh wrote:Given his injury issues and level of play I'd put him below LaVine, Brogdon, Hield at the time they signed their deals.

Those guys got between 19-24 mil if memory serves.

Just looked up Denver's Harris. When he signed his deal he was probably in a similar situation to Luke.

So that puts Luke in the 15-20 mil range!

That's a lot of money to invest in a 3rd or 4th option at the beginning of a rebuild, especially when we don't have a legit first or 2nd option!

It's why I would prefer to trade him for a pick (or picks) and reset that contract.

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That's a lot of money considering the mess Detroit is already in. But it seems fair.
He has the makings for another Detroit draft pick to flourish on another team.
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#5 » by Uncle Mxy » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:51 am

As the oldest Piston, he's clearly not part of our youth movement. Trade him for a bag of chips.
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#6 » by TPA » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:40 am

Pharaoh wrote:Given his injury issues and level of play I'd put him below LaVine, Brogdon, Hield at the time they signed their deals.

Those guys got between 19-24 mil if memory serves.

Just looked up Denver's Harris. When he signed his deal he was probably in a similar situation to Luke.

So that puts Luke in the 15-20 mil range!

That's a lot of money to invest in a 3rd or 4th option at the beginning of a rebuild, especially when we don't have a legit first or 2nd option!

It's why I would prefer to trade him for a pick (or picks) and reset that contract.

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Disagree. I think that Kennard is a MAX 12M guy to ANY team that would roll the dice on him. I think he'd be lucky to get a multi-year offer for more than 10/yr.
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#7 » by Pharaoh » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:52 am

TPA wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:Given his injury issues and level of play I'd put him below LaVine, Brogdon, Hield at the time they signed their deals.

Those guys got between 19-24 mil if memory serves.

Just looked up Denver's Harris. When he signed his deal he was probably in a similar situation to Luke.

So that puts Luke in the 15-20 mil range!

That's a lot of money to invest in a 3rd or 4th option at the beginning of a rebuild, especially when we don't have a legit first or 2nd option!

It's why I would prefer to trade him for a pick (or picks) and reset that contract.

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Disagree. I think that Kennard is a MAX 12M guy to ANY team that would roll the dice on him. I think he'd be lucky to get a multi-year offer for more than 10/yr.
You're aware that's MLE money right?



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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#8 » by dVs33 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:27 am

15 seems realistic. If he stays healthy next season it'll jump significantly
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#9 » by bstein14 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:21 pm

This summer, he would have a hard time getting more than an MLE type offer because of the declining cap Detroit is one of only 5 or 6 teams that actually have cap space, and some want to preserve what they have for next summer.
If he was a FA this summer Detroit likely offers something like 4 years $48 million with no other team offering more than 4 years $40 million. I would expect him to have a similar market to what KCP will have this summer, perhaps with Atlanta being the only team with $ above the MLE that has interest in him. KCP would probably get more, being know as a good 3 and D guy which is really popular in the league right now.


Next summer, a lot more teams have cap space and teams that strike out on Giannis might end up going after a guy like Kennard with some of their space. What he gets will largely depend on how well he plays next season.

Bottom end is 4 years $48 million for being a high % shooter scoring in the teens each night.
Top end is probably 4 years $80 million if he is healthy all season, scores about 20 PPG efficiently, and improves other aspects of his game as well.
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#10 » by bstein14 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:23 pm

Pharaoh wrote:
TPA wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:Given his injury issues and level of play I'd put him below LaVine, Brogdon, Hield at the time they signed their deals.

Those guys got between 19-24 mil if memory serves.

Just looked up Denver's Harris. When he signed his deal he was probably in a similar situation to Luke.

So that puts Luke in the 15-20 mil range!

That's a lot of money to invest in a 3rd or 4th option at the beginning of a rebuild, especially when we don't have a legit first or 2nd option!

It's why I would prefer to trade him for a pick (or picks) and reset that contract.

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Disagree. I think that Kennard is a MAX 12M guy to ANY team that would roll the dice on him. I think he'd be lucky to get a multi-year offer for more than 10/yr.
You're aware that's MLE money right?



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There are only 4 or 5 other teams in the entire NBA that have cap space to offer more than an MLE deal to anyone this summer. Might also be why we get to lock Christian Wood up cheap.
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#11 » by DBC10 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:54 pm

Anyone paying him more than 15 million per is going to really regret it. Especially with his knee issues that always seems to flare up at the time he's getting going
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#12 » by MotownMadness » Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:11 pm

He made a big jump last year statistically, I would give him to the deadline and see if he doesn't take another step while staying healthy.

Wouldn't move him now cause he hasn't seen the court in so long I doubt we get fair value and end up regretting moving him like that.
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#13 » by Crymson » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:54 pm

Pharaoh wrote:Given his injury issues and level of play I'd put him below LaVine, Brogdon, Hield at the time they signed their deals.

Those guys got between 19-24 mil if memory serves.

Just looked up Denver's Harris. When he signed his deal he was probably in a similar situation to Luke.

So that puts Luke in the 15-20 mil range!

That's a lot of money to invest in a 3rd or 4th option at the beginning of a rebuild, especially when we don't have a legit first or 2nd option!

It's why I would prefer to trade him for a pick (or picks) and reset that contract.

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When Harris signed his current contract, he'd just completed a season in which he'd scored 18 points per game on very good efficiency as one of his team's primary creators and played elite perimeter defense. In doing so, he'd improved upon what had already been a very good third season in the league. He deserved that contract, and there was the possibility that he'd continue to improve. He was far more effective than Kennard has ever been, and, unlike Luke, his long-term health was not a concern at the time. As for LaVine, Brogdon, and Hield, the first is overpaid but still quite a better than Luke, and the latter two (particularly Brogdon) are substantially better than Luke. In terms of his career at large in the league, he doesn't compare at all to any of them.

Luke has very limited pedigree as a creator, struggles on defense, has a limited ceiling and is arguably best suited as a bench scorer. Despite the fact that his value is almost exclusively found on offense, he's only managed double-digit scoring in one season. And in that season, his most recent, he played in only 28 games.

If he were eligible for a new contract now, I'd say it would pay him $12m-$14m, tops.

MotownMadness wrote:He made a big jump last year statistically, I would give him to the deadline and see if he doesn't take another step while staying healthy.

Wouldn't move him now cause he hasn't seen the court in so long I doubt we get fair value and end up regretting moving him like that.


Deadline deals for expiring players of Kennard's ilk very rarely involve much in the way of assets; teams can simply bid for them in the offseason instead of paying a substantial price for them at the deadline. Take the example of Lou Williams in 2017: though he was a scorer of substantial pedigree who was in the midst of a very good season (he'd finish #3 in voting for Sixth Man of the Year), he garnered only a late 1st at the trade deadline---and he, unlike Luke, had a full season remaining at a very reasonable salary.

Kennard probably has more trade value now, as a player who can give a team a full season's worth of value. In order to change that, he'd need to have a great season prior to the deadline.

bstein14 wrote:Top end is probably 4 years $80 million if he is healthy all season, scores about 20 PPG efficiently, and improves other aspects of his game as well.


There isn't a single player of Kennard's type who earns anywhere near $20 million per season. Even should he improve overall, he'll still be a player of limited ceiling: unathletic, a defensive liability, and with a limited capacity to generate offense for himself or for others.
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#14 » by edmunder_prc » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:04 pm

If Kennard is the worst contract on the team, then paying him 18 million a year is not terrible. Especially if he improves and can stay healthy.

He is not the worst contract on the team. He hasnt shown that he can stay healthy. Last year his defense was still pretty bad -- he is just scoring as much as he gives up, more or less.

Offer just over the mid-level, stand firm and look to trade him.

He is slow, weak and fragile. He cant guard PGs, no way is he fast and agile enough. He cant guard SG, they are bigger, strong and faster.

Kennard is a lot like Svi. Too slow and weak to guard the guy he needs to. Both good at offense, but streaky. Not good enough on offense to be an overall 'plus' to overcome their problems on defense. Its just a wash.

That doesnt get you big, starter player money. He would be a great 6th man. What does a good 6th man make?
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#15 » by The_Irony » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:11 pm

Luke has to go & spending 15-20 mill per season for him on THIS team should not be a thought in anyones mind
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#16 » by mattao313 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:37 pm

This isn't like past years guys when players were getting crazy money. I think he gets under 15mil a year.
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#17 » by Pharaoh » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:00 pm

Seems 12-18 mil is where we all put him.

I believe that's a fair assessment.

Question is: do we want to be paying that amount of money to a guy that:

Has injury concerns already
Isn't a legit top 3 option offensively
Is a defensive liability

While we still have a couple of years of Blake's contract on the books too!

Between Blake and Luke we'd be paying approx 50 mil for those 2 guys!

We're stuck with Blake. No need to compound that IMO

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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#18 » by Pharaoh » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:07 pm

bstein14 wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:
TPA wrote:
Disagree. I think that Kennard is a MAX 12M guy to ANY team that would roll the dice on him. I think he'd be lucky to get a multi-year offer for more than 10/yr.
You're aware that's MLE money right?



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There are only 4 or 5 other teams in the entire NBA that have cap space to offer more than an MLE deal to anyone this summer. Might also be why we get to lock Christian Wood up cheap.
I'm curious to see what we offer Wood.

You gotta also consider that just because you might be able to get Wood and Luke to stay on "cheap" deals you also don't want to insult them with a low ball offer.

It's a interesting time given the cap situation.

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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#19 » by mattao313 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:43 am

Pharaoh wrote:Seems 12-18 mil is where we all put him.

I believe that's a fair assessment.

Question is: do we want to be paying that amount of money to a guy that:

Has injury concerns already
Isn't a legit top 3 option offensively
Is a defensive liability

While we still have a couple of years of Blake's contract on the books too!

Between Blake and Luke we'd be paying approx 50 mil for those 2 guys!

We're stuck with Blake. No need to compound that IMO

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Why not? He isn't gonna hurt the team and would be an asset. Yall are over thinking it we going to sign players that's inevitable everyone isn't gonna be on a bargain rookie contract.

If he wants too much then just let him go. If not keep him on the team
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Re: Kennards value? 

Post#20 » by bstein14 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:19 am

Some people are projecting the cap could drop to $100 million this offseason and then even lower next offseason with the decline in revenue if the league can't get 50% plus of the fans back into the seats. I think its very possible the league loses a bunch of money next season. Only the teams with big local TV deals are really going to make money.

The Lakers get $122 per season for their TV deal, but the second highest is the Rockets at $45 million and then NY at $37 million per year.

Detroit hasn't made much money off ticket sales in recent years so it won't hurt them as much but a lot of teams could end up taking a huge hit. Detroit actually has the 5th highest local TV deal at $35 million per year which is a bit surprising that they are ahead of teams like Chicago/Brooklyn/Miami.

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