Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

[The Moose]

If the Knicks win tomorrow, then we'll have to figure out a way to lose to Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon, Kezie Okpala, and Andre Iguodala's corpse.

Our lineup looks like it’s going to be

Okafor
Cook
Bey/Josh Jackson
Diallo/ whoever suits up between Sirvydis, F Jackson and Joseph
Hayes/Lee

Going to be an epic tank battle

To be honest though you’ve only listed 6 players so at least 2 more heat players who are probably pretty good will play.

[whitehops]

Our lineup looks like it’s going to be

Okafor
Cook
Bey/Josh Jackson
Diallo/ whoever suits up between Sirvydis, F Jackson and Joseph
Hayes/Lee

Going to be an epic tank battle

To be honest though you’ve only listed 6 players so at least 2 more heat players who are probably pretty good will play.

plumlee and joseph are going to play but a lot of other guys are out so it's probably

Plumlee/Okafor
Bey/Cook
J Jackson/Diallo
Hayes
Joseph/Lee

those are the only guys who are likely to be active... i can already see joseph playing hero ball and leading us to a win smh.

[Manocad]

i can already see joseph playing hero ball and leading us to a win smh.

I can’t. Last game of the season, the whole team knows losing is best...I expect to see another kinda haphazard game without much intensity, focus or flow. Resulting in a loss, obviously.

[flow]

Butler's tightened back changed everything yesterday, and hence today as well. The Heat were favored by -4 at Milwaukee prior to the Butler news. They would likely have won the game, making their game today important. By tip off, with Butler out, the line had moved to Milwaukee -5, and they won easily.

So now, Miami will be locked into the #6 seed, with nothing to play for, as long as New York beats Boston at 1:00. That line right now is NY -11. Not only is Boston locked into #7, but they have a play-in game on Tuesday. They'll be resting everybody. Which is too bad, because NY did play a tough overtime game yesterday and would probably be vulnerable against a decent nba roster.

Point is, if NY wins, Detroit will have to fight for this loss tonight. Miami won't care, plus they're on a back-to-back. As much as I've praised Casey over the last couple of days, and as pleased as I am with what Weaver's done, playing Joseph or Plumlee or anyone else who could potentially tip the scales against a team with Zero interest in playing the game, would tarnish it. They can't be that careless.

.

[thesack12]

If the Knicks win tomorrow, then we'll have to figure out a way to lose to Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon, Kezie Okpala, and Andre Iguodala's corpse.

Tatum/Kemba/Smart/Fournier/Thompson/Williams all out today.

Knicks are going to cruise to a win, thus Miami will have nothing to play for tonight.

[The Moose]

If the Knicks win tomorrow, then we'll have to figure out a way to lose to Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon, Kezie Okpala, and Andre Iguodala's corpse.

Tatum/Kemba/Smart/Fournier/Thompson/Williams all out today.

Knicks are going to cruise to a win, thus Miami will have nothing to play for tonight.

Thunder and Magic are both playing teams with nothing to play for either, so could be an interesting day all around

[Snakebites]

That makes you really wish the Knicks/Celtics game wasn't so early.

Just to keep some perspective guys:

Now that Minny and Cleveland have 22 wins, the worst case scenario is a 4-way tie in the 2-3-4 range. Since the third place team would normally have identical odds to us, and the 4th place only slightly lower, the change in our chances of hitting the top 4 would be negligible even in the worst case scenario. Our odds of getting 1-4 go from 52.1% to 50.6%. For those who hate math, that basically means we have 5 fewer lotto ball combinations, going from 140 combos to 135 combos.

Thus, the only real consequence is that our floor moves from 6 to 8, though again, the odds of landing there are pretty small. It just makes the 5th pick less likely and the 6th more likely, while also adding in a slight chance of getting the 7th and a nearly-negligible (around 1 percent) chance of falling all the way to 8th.

So take a deep breath. It wouldn't be good but we're not talking about a disaster here. Lets not get too caught up in the rat race here. We're splitting hairs at this point- our goal of attaining good position has already been achieved.

[thesack12]

If the Knicks win tomorrow, then we'll have to figure out a way to lose to Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon, Kezie Okpala, and Andre Iguodala's corpse.

Tatum/Kemba/Smart/Fournier/Thompson/Williams all out today.

Knicks are going to cruise to a win, thus Miami will have nothing to play for tonight.

Thunder and Magic are both playing teams with nothing to play for either, so could be an interesting day all around

Technically the Clippers do have something to play for against OKC. They are currently tied with Denver for the 3rd seed.

However if Lakers beat the Pelicans and Nuggets beat the Blazers, the Lakers will be the 6 seed. So the 3 seed would have a 1st round date with the Lakers, which nobody would want.

All of the Clippers/Nuggets/Blazers/Lakers games tip off at the same time as well, so there will be no clarity going into those games.

But, the Nuggets play the Blazers so they very well could tank that game to ensure that the Lakers stay at 7 and force them into the play in tourney, and won't have to face them in the 1st round.

Clippers could attempt to tank their game as well, in order to try to fall to the 4 seed and avoid a potential 1st round matchup with the Lakers. However, I really don't see how the Clippers B/C team could be beaten by the current version of the Thunder.

Really the 4 seed is where Denver and LAC want to be. Still get HCA in the 1st round, and can guarantee they wouldn't face the Lakers until the WCF's.

So there could be a mini tank job for #4 going on between the Clippers and Nuggets today.

So yeah, like you said its going to be an interesting day.

[The Moose]

Tatum/Kemba/Smart/Fournier/Thompson/Williams all out today.

Knicks are going to cruise to a win, thus Miami will have nothing to play for tonight.

Thunder and Magic are both playing teams with nothing to play for either, so could be an interesting day all around

Technically the Clippers do have something to play for against OKC. They are currently tied with Denver for the 3rd seed.

However if Lakers beat the Pelicans and Nuggets beat the Blazers, the Lakers will be the 6 seed. So the 3 seed would have a 1st round date with the Lakers, which nobody would want.

All of the Clippers/Nuggets/Blazers/Lakers games tip off at the same time as well, so there will be no clarity going into those games.

But, the Nuggets play the Blazers so they very well could tank that game to ensure that the Lakers stay at 7 and force them into the play in tourney, and won't have to face them in the 1st round.

Clippers could attempt to tank their game as well, in order to try to fall to the 4 seed and avoid a potential 1st round matchup with the Lakers. However, I really don't see how the Clippers B/C team could be beaten by the current version of the Thunder.

Really the 4 seed is where Denver and LAC want to be. Still get HCA in the 1st round, and can guarantee they wouldn't face the Lakers until the WCF's.

So there could be a mini tank job for #4 going on between the Clippers and Nuggets today.

So yeah, like you said its going to be an interesting day.

From what I understand though, even if the Clippers win and get the 3 seed, to do so would require Portland to beat the Nuggets, and this would push Portland into the 6th against the Clippers. The Clippers tanked that game against the Rockets so that they could avoid any possible 1st round matchup with the Lakers.
They can only play either the Mavs if they get the 4th seed, or play the Blazers if they get the 3 seed.

realistically though, we should still lose our game, but I'm not sure why Plumlee and Joseph are playing

one thing I am interested by is lets say worst case scenario we end up tied 2nd with OKC and Magic, how does this change our odds?
It doesnt have any impact on our odds of landing in the top 4, but I guess it would drop our chances of top 5 from 80% to 60%ish?

[440BB]

If you would have told me a month or more ago that we'd end up tied for second worst I would have been ecstatic. I still am.

[bstein14]

Win or lose tonight its really fine. We still have a 50/50 shot at a top 4 pick. Feels like its our turn to get lucky in the lottery as we haven't had a top 6 pick of our own since Grant Hill in 1994. I'm excited to finally stop routing for losses and other trash teams to win... After tonight its time to look forward to.

NBA Draft Lottery June 22nd 8:30PM on ESPN
NBA Draft Combine June 21-27th
NBA Draft Day July 29th 5PM (Early Start) on ESPN and ABC
Summer League in early to mid August, dates still TBD

[flow]

The spin of the last few posts is nice and all. But this is a 61 page thread, and today is the last game of the season. The fact remains that a win tonight hurts us and a loss helps us. There is no excuse for playing any starters.

.

[thesack12]

Thunder and Magic are both playing teams with nothing to play for either, so could be an interesting day all around

Technically the Clippers do have something to play for against OKC. They are currently tied with Denver for the 3rd seed.

However if Lakers beat the Pelicans and Nuggets beat the Blazers, the Lakers will be the 6 seed. So the 3 seed would have a 1st round date with the Lakers, which nobody would want.

All of the Clippers/Nuggets/Blazers/Lakers games tip off at the same time as well, so there will be no clarity going into those games.

But, the Nuggets play the Blazers so they very well could tank that game to ensure that the Lakers stay at 7 and force them into the play in tourney, and won't have to face them in the 1st round.

Clippers could attempt to tank their game as well, in order to try to fall to the 4 seed and avoid a potential 1st round matchup with the Lakers. However, I really don't see how the Clippers B/C team could be beaten by the current version of the Thunder.

Really the 4 seed is where Denver and LAC want to be. Still get HCA in the 1st round, and can guarantee they wouldn't face the Lakers until the WCF's.

So there could be a mini tank job for #4 going on between the Clippers and Nuggets today.

So yeah, like you said its going to be an interesting day.

From what I understand though, even if the Clippers win and get the 3 seed, to do so would require Portland to beat the Nuggets, and this would push Portland into the 6th against the Clippers. The Clippers tanked that game against the Rockets so that they could avoid any possible 1st round matchup with the Lakers.
They can only play either the Mavs if they get the 4th seed, or play the Blazers if they get the 3 seed.

realistically though, we should still lose our game, but I'm not sure why Plumlee and Joseph are playing

one thing I am interested by is lets say worst case scenario we end up tied 2nd with OKC and Magic, how does this change our odds?
It doesnt have any impact on our odds of landing in the top 4, but I guess it would drop our chances of top 5 from 80% to 60%ish?

Haha, good call. I'm dumb.

Despite making reference to it in my own post, I lost track of the fact if Portland beats Denver they are the 6 seed and LAC would need Denver to lose to get to the 3 seed. So My entire previous post is moot...

As for the lottery impact, Snake had a good breakdown of it a few posts back. But if anybody wants a visual, here is a link to a chart breaking down the odds for each team's chances of getting a certain pick.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[The Moose]

The spin of the last few posts is nice and all. But this is a 61 page thread, and today is the last game of the season. The fact remains that a win tonight hurts us and a loss helps us. There is no excuse for playing any starters.

.

the only starter that is active is Plumlee and I would guess thats because there are only 7 other active players.

Doumbouya and Sirvydis are both out tonight, so somebody on the inactive list was always going to have to be rostered tonight

[flow]

The spin of the last few posts is nice and all. But this is a 61 page thread, and today is the last game of the season. The fact remains that a win tonight hurts us and a loss helps us. There is no excuse for playing any starters.

.

the only starter that is active is Plumlee and I would guess thats because there are only 7 other active players.

Doumbouya and Sirvydis are both out tonight, so somebody on the inactive list was always going to have to be rostered tonight

Joseph is a starter. Is he active?

Why are Doumbouya and Sirvydis out?

[The Moose]

The spin of the last few posts is nice and all. But this is a 61 page thread, and today is the last game of the season. The fact remains that a win tonight hurts us and a loss helps us. There is no excuse for playing any starters.

.

the only starter that is active is Plumlee and I would guess thats because there are only 7 other active players.

Doumbouya and Sirvydis are both out tonight, so somebody on the inactive list was always going to have to be rostered tonight

Joseph is a starter. Is he active?

he is questionable, he's hardly a starter though he is vet.

But the fact is we played 8 players against Denver, and 2 of those 8 are out with injuries tonight. Who on the injury list should be active instead of Plumlee and either one of Frank Jackson/Joseph (whichever ends up playing)?

Doumbouya and Stewart are out for personal reasons and Sirvydis hurt his knee last game

[flow]

the only starter that is active is Plumlee and I would guess thats because there are only 7 other active players.

Doumbouya and Sirvydis are both out tonight, so somebody on the inactive list was always going to have to be rostered tonight

Joseph is a starter. Is he active?

he is questionable, he's hardly a starter though he is vet.

But the fact is we played 8 players against Denver, and 2 of those 8 are out with injuries tonight. Who on the injury list should be active instead of Plumlee and either one of Frank Jackson/Joseph (whichever ends up playing)?

Doumbouya and Stewart are out for personal reasons and Sirvydis hurt his knee last game

Personal reasons? Is that a joke? The season ends today.

.

[flow]

the only starter that is active is Plumlee and I would guess thats because there are only 7 other active players.

Doumbouya and Sirvydis are both out tonight, so somebody on the inactive list was always going to have to be rostered tonight

Joseph is a starter. Is he active?

he is questionable, he's hardly a starter though he is vet.

He's hardly a starter on a decent team. But he's a starter on this team with this coach. He went right into Delon Wright's spot.

.

[Sort]

Odd timing for Sekou and Stew, but I suppose if you want some space for personal issues, this would be it. I don't think i can manage to watch tonight's game. Just let this nonsense and this thread finish up all on their own.

[The Moose]

Joseph is a starter. Is he active?

he is questionable, he's hardly a starter though he is vet.

He's hardly a starter on a decent team. But he's a starter on this team with this coach. He went right into Delon Wright's spot.

.

ok but the point is what do you want them to do instead?

definite playing tonight is :
Hayes/Lee
Diallo/Josh Jackson
Bey
Cook
Okafor

Thats only 7 players, so they need at least one or two of Sirvydis, F Jackson, Plumlee, Joseph, etc.

What it seems like is the case though is that Plumlee is in for sure as the 8th player. Then if Sirvydis can play he'll be in, if not Frank Jackson will play, and if neither of them can play Joseph will have to play.