Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

[Pharaoh]

I expect Minnesota to finish with the worst record in the league.

They'll be hoping they don't drop to 4 and give the Warriors a stud

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[ducler]

Fortunately Cavs also won yesterday.

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[DET_Athletics]

We need a top 2 pick in this draft. We have to walk away with either Cunningham or Mobley if this roster is going to be special. Both of those players are going to be unicorn at their position. Cunningham at the 2/3 guard and Mobley at the 4/5.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

538 is projecting us as 3rd worse right now. We really need to go on a 10 game losing streak. We arent losing enough to get the gold.

538 has:
1.Minn
2.Clev
3.Us
4.Thunder
5.Kings
6.Wiz
7.Rockets
8.Bulls
9.Hornets
10. Knicks

Its good the Wiz have started winnings. You really have to worry about Minn,Clev,OKC, and the Kings though. Those are teams with alot of tanking experience outside the Thunder who like us have little talent outside a guy or two.

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[440BB]

With the rapid development of our 2020 picks it's going to be hard to lose more than Cleveland and Minnesota. If we can't stay at the bottom it's Weaver's fault for drafting well this year.

I expect Weaver is capable of mining good talent from later in the first round, maybe the second round too. As next season is still a building block I'll accept wherever they land in the draft, knowing that enough talent is out there to continue building toward 2023 when we might be attractive to a top free agent with a surging young core.

I see complete tanking at this point as misguided, as we would sacrifice player development that's going very well for only a small increase in our chances of landing a top prospect. Going all out to end up with the worst record at this point would undermine the winning culture they are building. I'm fine with ending up in the bottom five as long as it's on the backs of the youngsters.

[Manocad]

With the rapid development of our 2020 picks it's going to be hard to lose more than Cleveland and Minnesota. If we can't stay at the bottom it's Weaver's fault for drafting well this year.

I expect Weaver is capable of mining good talent from later in the first round, maybe the second round too. As next season is still a building block I'll accept wherever they land in the draft, knowing that enough talent is out there to continue building toward 2023 when we might be attractive to a top free agent with a surging young core.

I see complete tanking at this point as misguided, as we would sacrifice player development that's going very well for only a small increase in our chances of landing a top prospect. Going all out to end up with the worst record at this point would undermine the winning culture they are building. I'm fine with ending up in the bottom five as long as it's on the backs of the youngsters.

You mean you don't support the suggested route of Dr. Leg Contusion? Keep all best players on the bench the rest of the year, play all the "worst" players (so to speak) big minutes and lose a bunch of games?

The irony with that strategy is it assumes once a player puts up good numbers when playing starter minutes, his development is done and he'll be just as good later after getting little to no minutes, like his "development" is somehow complete. But the non-starters need to play starter minutes in order to develop. Thus the idea there is that not playing only hinders development if it's a player you want to see get more minutes, but not playing doesn't hinder a player who puts up good numbers when getting starter minutes. The simple truth of course is that playing = getting better/staying good and not playing = regression, generally speaking. And that's just the physical aspect of it. Try telling Zion and Lonzo that the goal is to tank the rest of the season so they're going to sit with "leg contusions" and see how far that gets you. A mutiny is what it would get.

[Laimbeer]

With the rapid development of our 2020 picks it's going to be hard to lose more than Cleveland and Minnesota. If we can't stay at the bottom it's Weaver's fault for drafting well this year.

I expect Weaver is capable of mining good talent from later in the first round, maybe the second round too. As next season is still a building block I'll accept wherever they land in the draft, knowing that enough talent is out there to continue building toward 2023 when we might be attractive to a top free agent with a surging young core.

I see complete tanking at this point as misguided, as we would sacrifice player development that's going very well for only a small increase in our chances of landing a top prospect. Going all out to end up with the worst record at this point would undermine the winning culture they are building. I'm fine with ending up in the bottom five as long as it's on the backs of the youngsters.

It's more free agent signings than rookies. Bey and Stewart have been good, but Grant, Zeller, and Wright have had more impact.

[Laimbeer]

We need a top 2 pick in this draft. We have to walk away with either Cunningham or Mobley if this roster is going to be special. Both of those players are going to be unicorn at their position. Cunningham at the 2/3 guard and Mobley at the 4/5.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

538 is projecting us as 3rd worse right now. We really need to go on a 10 game losing streak. We arent losing enough to get the gold.

538 has:
1.Minn
2.Clev
3.Us
4.Thunder
5.Kings
6.Wiz
7.Rockets
8.Bulls
9.Hornets
10. Knicks

Its good the Wiz have started winnings. You really have to worry about Minn,Clev,OKC, and the Kings though. Those are teams with alot of tanking experience outside the Thunder who like us have little talent outside a guy or two.

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I understood there was quite a drop-off after five. Maybe those two have their own tier as well.

On edit, here are the top tiers at Tankathon.

TIER 1

1Gonzaga
Jalen Suggs
PG/SG | Gonzaga
6'4"
205 lbs
Freshman
19.7 yrs
18.7 PTS 7.1 REB 5.7 AST 0.5 BLK 2.7 STL

2Oklahoma State
Cade Cunningham
PG | Oklahoma State
6'7"
220 lbs
Freshman
19.4 yrs
19.7 PTS 6.3 REB 3.8 AST 0.9 BLK 1.5 STL

3USC
Evan Mobley
C | USC
7'0"
210 lbs
Freshman
19.7 yrs
17.9 PTS 9.2 REB 2.4 AST 3.2 BLK 1.0 STL

TIER 2

4G League
Jonathan Kuminga
SF | G League
6'8"
210 lbs
G League
18.4 yrs
18.1 PTS 6.5 REB 3.1 AST 1.0 BLK 1.4 STL

5G League
Jalen Green
SG | G League
6'6"
178 lbs
G League
19.0 yrs
20.6 PTS 5.5 REB 2.9 AST 0.4 BLK 1.9 STL

6Duke
Jalen Johnson
SF/PF | Duke
6'9"
220 lbs
Freshman
19.2 yrs
18.9 PTS 10.2 REB 3.8 AST 2.1 BLK 1.9 STL

[Laimbeer]

Cavs, Minny, Houston all 1-9 in last 10.

[Snakebites]

Cavs, Minny, Houston all 1-9 in last 10.

Cavs now with 2 in a row though.

I think the Rockets will eventually not be among the worst.

This is about us, Cleveland and Minny IMO.

Hoping nobody else sneaks in there, or at worst one other team. I can live with 4 spot in lotto.

[bstein14]

Allen is gonna be great for the Cavs. I think they are back in the hunt for the 9/10 play in games in a month or two.

[Pharaoh]

When does Nance return? He was huge for them defensively and they've stunk since he got injured

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[NYPiston]

Thunder and Cavs with big wins. Excellent tank night. I'm not even following the Wolves anymore, they're hopeless.

[Pharaoh]

Wolves I'm OT v Bulls

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[MotownMadness]

Glad to see Cavs getting a couple wins

[ComboGuardCity]

By the end of the year 40% of our minutes will be going to rookies who will inevitably hit the rookie wall. I still think the Wolves string a few together

[Pharaoh]

Think we'll be fine regardless as long as we get a top 5 pick.

Plumlee got 2 more years
Grant got 2 more years

Jackson we can retain using some of the space when Blake's buyout comes off the books

Lee we can retain as a RFA, think that's the same with DSJ & Svi (or use his Bird Rights)

Sekou would be a RFA eventually.

Stewart, Bey, Hayes got a long time under team control.

That's 11 dudes, obviously some are not gonna pan out of stay here but that's a load of pieces.

Assuming the top 5 in 2021 is equal - which dude brings it all together as THE main piece?

Is that Cade? Mobley? Kuminga? Green? Suggs?

The pieces we do keep are versatile enough to accommodate any of those

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[Snakebites]

One important thing is strength of schedule.

Ours has been notably harder than Minny’s and Houston’s, and slightly harder than Cleveland’s. Seem to have a knack for losing to bad teams, but who knows if that’ll hold.

[bstein14]

They released the second half of the schedule and the very end (month of May) is our easiest stretch of the year.

Charlotte
Orlando
Charlotte
Memphis
Philly
Chicago
Minny
Denver
Miami

Those last two games against Denver and Miami will likely be rest mode for teams having already cemented their spots in the playoffs. I have a feeling our position is really going to come down to those last 9 games there.

[MotownMadness]

I wouldn't worry too much about who we are playing. Everytime I try to do that it never goes how you think

[NYPiston]

They released the second half of the schedule and the very end (month of May) is our easiest stretch of the year.

Charlotte
Orlando
Charlotte
Memphis
Philly
Chicago
Minny
Denver
Miami

Those last two games against Denver and Miami will likely be rest mode for teams having already cemented their spots in the playoffs. I have a feeling our position is really going to come down to those last 9 games there.

I doubt that Miami will be in a position to rest players. Charlotte, Chicago and Memphis will likely be fighting tooth and nail for playoff spots so those four games would arguably be tougher than playing an elite team that would be in cruise control at that point.

This is an odd year in the sense that there are very few really bad teams unlike most years when there are a lot of bad teams and with the expanded format, more teams will be in playoff contention so this bodes well for tanking teams playing teams down the stretch with more motivation to win games.
Essentially what I'm trying to say is that it's better to play bubble teams than elite teams down the stretch for the sake of the tank.