Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

[Manocad]

For the sake of argument, let’s assume the draft lottery isn’t rigged because there’s no concrete evidence to suggest otherwise anyway. That being said, the history of Detroit’s draft position has absolutely no bearing in any way on what may or may not happen this year. Sure, you can be pessimistic about it like most Lions fans are about anything good happening for the Lions, but that’s not a logic-based emotion. And it certainly isn’t a logical argument for planning purposes.

[Snakebites]

For the sake of argument, let’s assume the draft lottery isn’t rigged because there’s no concrete evidence to suggest otherwise anyway. That being said, the history of Detroit’s draft position has absolutely no bearing in any way on what may or may not happen this year. Sure, you can be pessimistic about it like most Lions fans are about anything good happening for the Lions, but that’s not a logic-based emotion. And it certainly isn’t a logical argument for planning purposes.

The Timberwolves had a long history of NEVER moving up in the draft...until they didn’t.

[Pharaoh]

if this draft didn't have such a good looking top 5 I would probably quit worrying so much.

Like I'm not even trying to waste a whole season in the future tanking for 1 guy at the top with these new lottery odds.

I don't even think Hinkie would go such full force for so long if he was doing it under this new system.

Hinkie would still do what he did under this system simply because it still remains the best way to land generational talent and lock them in for the longest period of time.

IF you hit on 3 Lotto picks in consecutive years you're looking at a 5 year window given RFA.

Extremely hard to land 2 or 3 marquee players via trade or free agency.

Hinkie just played the odds and you still can, regardless of if that's the "best" way go build or not

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[MotownMadness]

if this draft didn't have such a good looking top 5 I would probably quit worrying so much.

Like I'm not even trying to waste a whole season in the future tanking for 1 guy at the top with these new lottery odds.

I don't even think Hinkie would go such full force for so long if he was doing it under this new system.

Hinkie would still do what he did under this system simply because it still remains the best way to land generational talent and lock them in for the longest period of time.

IF you hit on 3 Lotto picks in consecutive years you're looking at a 5 year window given RFA.

Extremely hard to land 2 or 3 marquee players via trade or free agency.

Hinkie just played the odds and you still can, regardless of if that's the "best" way go build or not

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Yeah but back then the 7th or 8th worst record had like a 2percent shot at moving up where now the 8th worst have basically what the worst record had under the old system.

You don't have to do a complete G league Roster season like before to tank

[ElectricMayhem]

We're going to win down the stretch, get 7th and another team will move up in the lottery giving us the 8th pick. If you don't know this is going to happen, you haven't been watching Detroit Pistons basketball the last decade.

Don't worry, EM. At least I know you were being tongue-in-cheek.

[DetroitSho]

We're going to win down the stretch, get 7th and another team will move up in the lottery giving us the 8th pick. If you don't know this is going to happen, you haven't been watching Detroit Pistons basketball the last decade.

Don't worry, EM. At least I know you were being tongue-in-cheek.

Anybody else as confused as me? Forget to log into your 2nd account?

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[Manocad]

We're going to win down the stretch, get 7th and another team will move up in the lottery giving us the 8th pick. If you don't know this is going to happen, you haven't been watching Detroit Pistons basketball the last decade.

Don't worry, EM. At least I know you were being tongue-in-cheek.

Anybody else as confused as me? Forget to log into your 2nd account?

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

Those Sparty guys aren't known for being rocket scientists

[ElectricMayhem]

We're going to win down the stretch, get 7th and another team will move up in the lottery giving us the 8th pick. If you don't know this is going to happen, you haven't been watching Detroit Pistons basketball the last decade.

Don't worry, EM. At least I know you were being tongue-in-cheek.

Don't let them get to you, EM. Keep your chin up!

[DBC10]

We're going to win down the stretch, get 7th and another team will move up in the lottery giving us the 8th pick. If you don't know this is going to happen, you haven't been watching Detroit Pistons basketball the last decade.

Don't worry, EM. At least I know you were being tongue-in-cheek.

I think the sarcasm would've landed better if you led with the 2 coin flip = 100% odds shtick.

Better luck next time

[ElectricMayhem]

The Timberwolves have won their last three home games. There's life, at least.

[ducler]

Our next 5-games stretch will be crucial for the tank:
1. Wednesday vs. LAC who will be on back-to-back as they will play at IND on Tuesday (so surely no Leonard again).
2. Friday vs. OKC who are in full tank mode (lost 9 out of their last 10).
3. Saturday on back-to-back @ WAS who will also be on back-to-back as they will play vs. NOP on Friday (so surely no Beal).
4. Next Monday vs. CLE who are also tanking (lost 7 out of their last 10).
5. Next Wednesday @ DAL who will be on the first of a back-to-back as they will play vs. LAL on Thursday (so surely no Porzingis).

Then 9 of our last 13 games will be against teams above 50% of wins, plus 1 @ IND and another vs. CHI who are both fighting for a playoff spot.
The other 2 will also be crucial for the tank:
1. On May 3rd vs. ORL who are in full tank mode (lost 7 out of their last 10).
2. On May 11th vs. MIN who have been bad all season but better lately (lost 7 out of their last 10).

[Snakebites]

Every now and again the tank gods give you a gift.

Today the Wizards beat the Jazz. Case in point.

[aad]

We will finish the season in the 6th or 7th spot
Houston
Wolves
Magic
Cavs
Thunder
Is in full blown tank mode

[NYPiston]

I doubt they drop as far as 6th or 7th, Wizards are too good with Beal and they have enough of a cushion on Cleveland who is good enough to win 4-5 games to close out the season but I see no scenario where they don't catch the Magic and Thunder. At this point, I'd be surprised if those teams won 5 games combined, the Thunder likely win no more than 1 or 2 if even that so I'd say 5th is the most likely finishing spot.

[Manocad]

We will finish the season in the 6th or 7th spot
Houston
Wolves
Magic
Cavs
Thunder
Is in full blown tank mode

I don't know about OKC or Cleveland. The Pistons have 18 games left and at their current winning percentage they'd be projected to win 5 more games, finishing with 21 wins. The Thunder have 19 games left and 20 wins meaning they would have to go 0-19 the rest of the way to finish lower. Almost the same situation with the Cavs at 19 wins currently; they'd have to go 1-18 the rest of the way. I'd say the Pistons have a pretty firm grip on a bottom 4 finish.

Now, given the lottery odds a lot of this is all academic anyway.

[Snakebites]

We will finish the season in the 6th or 7th spot
Houston
Wolves
Magic
Cavs
Thunder
Is in full blown tank mode

I don't know about OKC or Cleveland. The Pistons have 18 games left and at their current winning percentage they'd be projected to win 5 more games, finishing with 21 wins. The Thunder have 19 games left and 20 wins meaning they would have to go 0-19 the rest of the way to finish lower. Almost the same situation with the Cavs at 19 wins currently; they'd have to go 1-18 the rest of the way. I'd say the Pistons have a pretty firm grip on a bottom 4 finish.

Now, given the lottery odds a lot of this is all academic anyway.

The Cavs and Magic also still have a slightly easier schedule than we do from here on out. I still feel like the Magic eventually pass us simply because they tore it down to such a crazy extent, but Cleveland seems to be on similar footing to us with a couple more easy games than we have.

The Rockets are a list cause and the Wolves are an extreme long shot, and only a long shot because they’re playing slightly better.

4th is the most likely scenario.

[bstein14]

I think its almost a forgone conclusion that we finish somewhere between 3rd and 5th worst.

To finish worst or 2nd worst we most likely need to go 1-17 or 2-16 the final 18 games... To finish 6th or 7th worst we'd most likely need to go 7-11 or 8-10 the last 18 games. I think we win 3 to 6 games the rest of the season and that will end up planting us squarely in the 3rd to 5th range for draft position.

[ducler]

I want to point something out: our larger losing streak this year has been 4 games lost, so don't count on us losing more than 13 of the last 18.

I only hope we don't win meaningless games in addition to the ones we will surely win. OKC, CLE, ORL and MIN are basically sure wins for us. We should also win one of the CHA games and maybe the CHI one too. If we lose one of those 6 games I expect us to win, we will probably accidentally another one.

So I bet we will finish somewhere between 21 and 23 wins. Now the question is: how many teams will win less game than that?
Minny, Houston for sure. I don't think Magic can win 6 more and Cavs have already shown us they can tank properly. Can Thunder win 3 more? Hard to tell.

With 23 wins we can finish 6th worst.

[DBC10]

Orlando is right behind us and Cleveland being a wild card to catch up to us as well

And with the new lottery odds, heading into the lottery thinking we're very likely to be top 3 or 4 picking would be a mistake. I'd say it's likely we'll end up top 4 but very likely, simply no and it's the type of chaos that I'm anticipating

[ducler]

With last night wins of Magic, Cavs, Wizards and Raptors combined with our super clutch loss, we take a big breath.

Now, we need to lose next game against Thunder. We have to lose those next 4 games.