Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

[El Chivo]

Now, we need to lose next game against Thunder.

No way.

[bstein14]

Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, we are going to finish with the 3rd or 4th worst record when all is said and done.

[DBC10]

Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, we are going to finish with the 3rd or 4th worst record when all is said and done.

It'll be very close. A lot closer than originally thought. I think I'm out that we'll finish top 3 anymore for what it's worth. It's 4th likely and then 5th somewhat likely and 6th and beyond unlikely but possible

[ducler]

Now, we need to lose next game against Thunder.

No way.

If no change before the game, both Plumlee, Grant, Joseph, Ellington, McGruder and Smith will be rested against OKC.

Weaver doing his job for the tank.

[Manocad]

Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, we are going to finish with the 3rd or 4th worst record when all is said and done.

It'll be very close. A lot closer than originally thought. I think I'm out that we'll finish top 3 anymore for what it's worth. It's 4th likely and then 5th somewhat likely and 6th and beyond unlikely but possible

If the Pistons stay on their projected path they'll win 21 games. To finish 6th both Cleveland and OKC would need to go 0-17 the rest of the way which would be 18 and 27 game losing streaks respectively, with Orlando going 2-15. Obviously assuming Houston and Minnesota maintain their pace.

Worse than 6th? Not without a winning streak AND Washington and/or Sacramento, Toronto or Chicago pulling an oh-fer the rest of the way. That's not happening.

[Sort]

Pistons sitting all the vets today is an excellent sign for the tank. Let the vets play against real competition - we'll still lose most of the time - and let the young ones develop otherwise and still have a chance to lose. A small one with just how hard OKC is tanking, but nonetheless...

[Snakebites]

I like that they’re resting the vets, but I still think we win this one. That Thunder lineup is one of the worst I’ve ever seen fielded.

They will win a few more games this year in all likelihood, but the odds of them winning any one particular game are low.

[440BB]

The average age of the available Pistons players tonight is 21.4 years old, with Okafor being the old man at 24. If we win with that group it's hard to fault them for getting better.

I didn't imagine having so much young talent this quickly, making tanking so difficult. With the minutes Bey and Stewart have played this season I expected them to drop off by now. They're playing a lot more games than they have before and at an NBA level. We might need to give them rest days to stay near the bottom.

[Billl]

Playing the young guys isn't necessarily lose us more games at this point. Sure, they make rookie mistakes, but they have talent and play hard on both ends. Not complaining about that, but it's not like prior years where playing the young guys meant a bunch of fringe NBAers.

[Snakebites]

Yeah, I refuse to be a rebuilding team and complain that rookies are winning us too many games. The point of a rebuild is to have good rookies. If Hayes/Bey/Stewart (or our other young players who aren't rookies) win us this one so be it.

Would prefer a loss of course though.

A loss to OKC today would make me feel a LOT better about my assertion that we'll most likely finish 4th. A win would put us 5 wins behind them- hard for them to make up ground assuming they win at least one or 2 more games to close out the year, which they most likely will.

[DBC10]

Pistons sitting all the vets today is an excellent sign for the tank. Let the vets play against real competition - we'll still lose most of the time - and let the young ones develop otherwise and still have a chance to lose. A small one with just how hard OKC is tanking, but nonetheless...

I'd argue they could've done this 5 games ago just with the way the schedule was but it's a good and expected sign for a tank team like us. Get Grant some rest considering how wild the injury bug has been this year with the compressed schedule

[NYPiston]

Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, we are going to finish with the 3rd or 4th worst record when all is said and done.

I don't think the Pistons finishing ahead of OKC is crazy at all and in fact, I'd be really surprised if they don't. They'll be 3 games behind after they beat them tonight and I'm not convinced that SGA will return at all this season, they'll probably keep "re-evaluating" him the rest of the season, so I'd be surprised if they won more than 1 or 2 games.

I know a lot of you guys see them finishing 4th as the most likely outcome but it looks like 5th to me. The Pistons have an easy schedule down the stretch.

[Snakebites]

Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, we are going to finish with the 3rd or 4th worst record when all is said and done.

I don't think the Pistons finishing ahead of OKC is crazy at all and in fact, I'd be really surprised if they don't. They'll be 3 games behind after they beat them tonight and I'm not convinced that SGA will return at all this season, they'll probably keep "re-evaluating" him the rest of the season, so I'd be surprised if they won more than 1 or 2 games.

I know a lot of you guys see them finishing 4th as the most likely outcome but it looks like 5th to me. The Pistons have an easy schedule down the stretch.

We have an easy schedule down the stretch, but the difference isn't so dramatic that 5th is more likely than 4th, though I'll concede it's likely going to be pretty close.

For reference, we had a middling schedule down the stretch before we played the Clippers twice, which brought our Strength of Schedule down. At this point you're just talking about a difference of one or 2 easy games between us and our opponents.

Keep in mind it's also not GUARANTEED that the Magic finish below us either, though that is far more likely than the Thunder. The Magic are 2 games behind us and their remaining schedule isn't that dissimilar.

That's why I say that, in order of probability, it is this:

1) Most likely- We pass one of those teams
2) Second most likely- We pass 2 of those teams
3) Third most likely- we stay behind both of them.

It's POSSIBLE Cleveland or Washington gets in there, but I think that's on a lesser level of probability. Hope I'm not wrong about that. Neither has a tougher schedule than us and both are 3 or more games ahead of us.

[ducler]

Raptors are resting both Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, Trent and Lowry against Magic. That could help our tank.

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[bstein14]

Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, we are going to finish with the 3rd or 4th worst record when all is said and done.

I don't think the Pistons finishing ahead of OKC is crazy at all and in fact, I'd be really surprised if they don't. They'll be 3 games behind after they beat them tonight and I'm not convinced that SGA will return at all this season, they'll probably keep "re-evaluating" him the rest of the season, so I'd be surprised if they won more than 1 or 2 games.

I know a lot of you guys see them finishing 4th as the most likely outcome but it looks like 5th to me. The Pistons have an easy schedule down the stretch.

This week OKC has games against
Detroit, Toronto, Washington, Indiana, Washington. If they go 0-5 in those games then maybe I'll think they'll tank their way below us, but I could easily see them going 1-4 or 2-3 in that stretch. In my mind, once a team hits 23 wins they are for sure going to have a better record than us.

OKC with 20 wins and us at 16 is really a decent lead for us. We likely will only get 4 or 5 wins the rest of the season so you're pretty much thinking OKC ends up with only 1 or 0 wins the entire rest of the way if you think they'll end up better than us.

We're also clearly not trying to grind out every win. We're resting vets and letting young guys play. We aren't seeing Plumlee and Grant play 38+ MPG anymore.

[ducler]

With this win against OKC, we now must lose tonight at WAS.

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[MotownMadness]

With this win against OKC, we now must lose tonight at WAS.

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Well that doesn't feel promising

[Snakebites]

Well, I wasn’t worried about the Wizards but that loss puts them out of reach IMO.

I’d say at this point our darkest timeline places us at 6th.
Our brightest in the bottom 3. I don’t think there’s any leeway there. Anything better or worse is nearly impossible.

[MotownMadness]

Well, I wasn’t worried about the Wizards but that loss puts them out of reach IMO.

I’d say at this point our darkest timeline places us at 6th.
Our brightest in the bottom 3. I don’t think there’s any leeway there. Anything better or worse is nearly impossible.

How many games are left?

It's time to start looking at how many more wins some of these teams need to be eliminated from overtaking our draft position.

[NYPiston]

Well, I wasn’t worried about the Wizards but that loss puts them out of reach IMO.

I’d say at this point our darkest timeline places us at 6th.
Our brightest in the bottom 3. I don’t think there’s any leeway there. Anything better or worse is nearly impossible.

3-5 is most likely with 6 and 2 an extreme longshot and I say 2 because I'm clinging to the slightest glimmer of hope that the Wolves are still within reach because they're healthy for the first time this season and the Pistons lose (win) the tiebreaker if they lose to the Wolves. It's probably as likely as the Pistons passing all of Cleveland, OKC and Orlando but still a possibility.
Realistically, it's going to be 4 or 5.